It’s not enough because the country is hyper polarized and live in media echo chambers of their own choice and making. To expect massive changes with an extremely well known politician and his party just isn’t acknowledging today’s America as it is (believe me, I wish it was possible to have a 66-33 Democratic landslide or even 57-42, but it’s not). There just aren’t many movable voters left.
Now, this poll could be a high water mark due to more Democrats responding to surveys and less Republicans doing so. However, if it’s real actual movement, that’s 5% of the entire electorate moving from GOP to DEM. That is a massive swing and gain, especially since that would flip 16 GOP-held districts from 2024 results and by PVI also, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio + Texas Senate seats (and no I don’t think this will happen and no I don’t think it will be uniform, just speaking theoretically), which would hand them a majority in that chamber too. It doesn’t account for lower Trump voter turnout when he’s not on the ballot either.
5 points is on the cusp of a wave already. Nothing makes people want to vote for Democrats more than Republicans screwing up everything when in power, go figure they can’t figure that out until it’s too late. Anecdotally this makes sense, many GOP-held swing districts already have a large number of Democrats running with more joining primaries everyday. Politicians really like to run when they think they can win.
Yeah if a Dem gets elected in 2028 we're going to need massive majorities in Congress alone for all the cleanup in revoking 19th century laws that were sitting on the books for Trump to weaponize like the Alien Enemies Act so the next Republican President has less obvious tools in the toolbox to use.
100% agreed, which is why I want the next Democratic president to be a new age politician who acknowledges today’s reality that Republicans are the actual enemy to our country, democracy is extremely shaky and instead of working with them, they need to do everything in their power to make it so Republicans have a harder time winning.
Also I want them to fire every single Republican previously nominated to any office (not all government workers in case anyone thinks I want DOGE version of the left, but departmental heads). The less connections the GOP has, the weaker the party and the weaker their ability to gain power becomes, we got to stop giving them ladders or keeping people in positions just because of some weird old age thinking about stability and fairness that no longer applies today which ties our hands as a party for any politician who actually still believes that.
Also need to pass a national law banning gerrymandering and requiring independent redistricting commissions in every state. If Dems have to abolish the filibuster to do that, so be it.
We could presumably get through those legislative issues with a modest but not particularly large majority in the house.
The real obstacle is the senate. As is it would be fortunate for us to have a senate majority at all come 2029. We're going to need some cushion to deal with spineless institutionalists that think it's more important to preserve the traditions of the senate than to preserve democracy.
I think we will need 52 seats to guarantee any accomplishment beyond whatever can get through reconciliation.
Getting to 52 seats by then isn't impossible but it is a very tall order. Requires us to win all the inherently competitive seats up in 2026 and 2028: WI, NC 2026, NC 2028, ME. Then on top of those four we would need to win something somewhere else. Maybe Alaska, Iowa, Texas, or Ohio are our best chances for a miracle on that front.
Rachel Bitecofer, who accurately predicted the 2018 blue wave, thinks that Dems could win more House seats in 2026 than the 41 they picked up. Yes, even with the vicious red state gerrymandering post 2020 census.
And all because the Democratic Party has adopted negative partisanship (using the GOP attack method against them).
Helpful to know, thanks for posting.
Alas, I feel that a +5 margin, given everything going on, is not good enough.
Unfortunately, things are gonna keep getting worse so that margin should grow bigger.
It’s not enough because the country is hyper polarized and live in media echo chambers of their own choice and making. To expect massive changes with an extremely well known politician and his party just isn’t acknowledging today’s America as it is (believe me, I wish it was possible to have a 66-33 Democratic landslide or even 57-42, but it’s not). There just aren’t many movable voters left.
Now, this poll could be a high water mark due to more Democrats responding to surveys and less Republicans doing so. However, if it’s real actual movement, that’s 5% of the entire electorate moving from GOP to DEM. That is a massive swing and gain, especially since that would flip 16 GOP-held districts from 2024 results and by PVI also, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio + Texas Senate seats (and no I don’t think this will happen and no I don’t think it will be uniform, just speaking theoretically), which would hand them a majority in that chamber too. It doesn’t account for lower Trump voter turnout when he’s not on the ballot either.
5 points is on the cusp of a wave already. Nothing makes people want to vote for Democrats more than Republicans screwing up everything when in power, go figure they can’t figure that out until it’s too late. Anecdotally this makes sense, many GOP-held swing districts already have a large number of Democrats running with more joining primaries everyday. Politicians really like to run when they think they can win.
Yeah if a Dem gets elected in 2028 we're going to need massive majorities in Congress alone for all the cleanup in revoking 19th century laws that were sitting on the books for Trump to weaponize like the Alien Enemies Act so the next Republican President has less obvious tools in the toolbox to use.
100% agreed, which is why I want the next Democratic president to be a new age politician who acknowledges today’s reality that Republicans are the actual enemy to our country, democracy is extremely shaky and instead of working with them, they need to do everything in their power to make it so Republicans have a harder time winning.
Also I want them to fire every single Republican previously nominated to any office (not all government workers in case anyone thinks I want DOGE version of the left, but departmental heads). The less connections the GOP has, the weaker the party and the weaker their ability to gain power becomes, we got to stop giving them ladders or keeping people in positions just because of some weird old age thinking about stability and fairness that no longer applies today which ties our hands as a party for any politician who actually still believes that.
Also need to pass a national law banning gerrymandering and requiring independent redistricting commissions in every state. If Dems have to abolish the filibuster to do that, so be it.
If Kamala won and Dems regained a trifecta, they would’ve done just that.
DC & PR statehood too.
We could presumably get through those legislative issues with a modest but not particularly large majority in the house.
The real obstacle is the senate. As is it would be fortunate for us to have a senate majority at all come 2029. We're going to need some cushion to deal with spineless institutionalists that think it's more important to preserve the traditions of the senate than to preserve democracy.
I think we will need 52 seats to guarantee any accomplishment beyond whatever can get through reconciliation.
Getting to 52 seats by then isn't impossible but it is a very tall order. Requires us to win all the inherently competitive seats up in 2026 and 2028: WI, NC 2026, NC 2028, ME. Then on top of those four we would need to win something somewhere else. Maybe Alaska, Iowa, Texas, or Ohio are our best chances for a miracle on that front.
Rachel Bitecofer, who accurately predicted the 2018 blue wave, thinks that Dems could win more House seats in 2026 than the 41 they picked up. Yes, even with the vicious red state gerrymandering post 2020 census.
And all because the Democratic Party has adopted negative partisanship (using the GOP attack method against them).
It's pretty remarkable this early in a president's term.