It is incredibly weird that different pollsters are showing wildly different relative margins in those 3 states. Q has PA 5 points to the left of Wisconsin. InsiderAdvantage also dropped polls showing PA 4 points to the right of Wisconsin.
I'd consider it normal and in fact kind of good. It's exactly what we would expect with different polling methodologies. Different systems of collecting data and then processing that data should get different results. There should be random variance from poll to poll even within the same system.
Statistically speaking, +6 +5 and +1 across three states is a reasonably possible polling result from a reality where all three states have the same level of support.
Even though I can feel Skaje's judgement from my computer as I was doing it, I dug into the crosstabs of the Q Poll and compared it to the Marquette poll which showed Kamala up 5 (this was taken August 28-September 5 so mostly before and a little after the debate) and the big difference is the Independent number, the MU poll showed Kamala up 12 with Indies and the Q Poll had Trump +2 among Indies. The other big difference is Trump did much better with men in the Q poll, as he was +21 in the Q Poll vs +10 in the MU poll (Kamala was +19 and 18, respectively). Both polls had very Trumpy non-white samples as Q had it tied among white voters and MU had Kamala +2 among white voters. If it was tied among non-white voters, I think Kamala wins by at least 6 and it could go as high as 10, but that would be unlikely. They had different age breakdowns (for example Q had young voters as 18-34 and MU had it 18-29) so its a little difficult to get an apples to apples comparison in that area.
The WI Men # is the biggest one I've seen among men in ANY swing state by at least three points. The # for Women in all three states are higher than most (I've been seeing a lot of Harris+17 lately) but relatively consistent.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1836442937774772466
Quinnipiac polls for PA, MI and WI
Harris +6% in PA
Harris +5% in MI
Harris +1% in WI
Also...
Casey +9% in PA
Slotkin +5% in MI
Baldwin +4% in W
It is incredibly weird that different pollsters are showing wildly different relative margins in those 3 states. Q has PA 5 points to the left of Wisconsin. InsiderAdvantage also dropped polls showing PA 4 points to the right of Wisconsin.
Weird, man.
Q's result is also consistent with Harris being +3 in both states, though.
I'd consider it normal and in fact kind of good. It's exactly what we would expect with different polling methodologies. Different systems of collecting data and then processing that data should get different results. There should be random variance from poll to poll even within the same system.
Statistically speaking, +6 +5 and +1 across three states is a reasonably possible polling result from a reality where all three states have the same level of support.
Interestingly they are not showing Dems doing way better in WI vs the other swing states the way other pollsters have.
Even though I can feel Skaje's judgement from my computer as I was doing it, I dug into the crosstabs of the Q Poll and compared it to the Marquette poll which showed Kamala up 5 (this was taken August 28-September 5 so mostly before and a little after the debate) and the big difference is the Independent number, the MU poll showed Kamala up 12 with Indies and the Q Poll had Trump +2 among Indies. The other big difference is Trump did much better with men in the Q poll, as he was +21 in the Q Poll vs +10 in the MU poll (Kamala was +19 and 18, respectively). Both polls had very Trumpy non-white samples as Q had it tied among white voters and MU had Kamala +2 among white voters. If it was tied among non-white voters, I think Kamala wins by at least 6 and it could go as high as 10, but that would be unlikely. They had different age breakdowns (for example Q had young voters as 18-34 and MU had it 18-29) so its a little difficult to get an apples to apples comparison in that area.
Gender Crosstabs:
Men - PA: Trump+13 / MI: Trump+10 / WI: Trump+20
Women- PA: Harris+22 / MI: Harris+19 / WI: Harris+19
The WI Men # is the biggest one I've seen among men in ANY swing state by at least three points. The # for Women in all three states are higher than most (I've been seeing a lot of Harris+17 lately) but relatively consistent.
This seems a lot more in line with what we might expect, as opposed to the other polls showing her doing better in Wisconsin than Pennsylvania.
Yes, based on previous experience. But there's no way to be sure.