Even though I can feel Skaje's judgement from my computer as I was doing it, I dug into the crosstabs of the Q Poll and compared it to the Marquette poll which showed Kamala up 5 (this was taken August 28-September 5 so mostly before and a little after the debate) and the big difference is the Independent number, the MU poll showed Kamala up 12 with Indies and the Q Poll had Trump +2 among Indies. The other big difference is Trump did much better with men in the Q poll, as he was +21 in the Q Poll vs +10 in the MU poll (Kamala was +19 and 18, respectively). Both polls had very Trumpy non-white samples as Q had it tied among white voters and MU had Kamala +2 among white voters. If it was tied among non-white voters, I think Kamala wins by at least 6 and it could go as high as 10, but that would be unlikely. They had different age breakdowns (for example Q had young voters as 18-34 and MU had it 18-29) so its a little difficult to get an apples to apples comparison in that area.
Interestingly they are not showing Dems doing way better in WI vs the other swing states the way other pollsters have.
Even though I can feel Skaje's judgement from my computer as I was doing it, I dug into the crosstabs of the Q Poll and compared it to the Marquette poll which showed Kamala up 5 (this was taken August 28-September 5 so mostly before and a little after the debate) and the big difference is the Independent number, the MU poll showed Kamala up 12 with Indies and the Q Poll had Trump +2 among Indies. The other big difference is Trump did much better with men in the Q poll, as he was +21 in the Q Poll vs +10 in the MU poll (Kamala was +19 and 18, respectively). Both polls had very Trumpy non-white samples as Q had it tied among white voters and MU had Kamala +2 among white voters. If it was tied among non-white voters, I think Kamala wins by at least 6 and it could go as high as 10, but that would be unlikely. They had different age breakdowns (for example Q had young voters as 18-34 and MU had it 18-29) so its a little difficult to get an apples to apples comparison in that area.