Even though I can feel Skaje's judgement from my computer as I was doing it, I dug into the crosstabs of the Q Poll and compared it to the Marquette poll which showed Kamala up 5 (this was taken August 28-September 5 so mostly before and a little after the debate) and the big difference is the Independent number, the MU poll showed Kamala up 12 with Indies and the Q Poll had Trump +2 among Indies. The other big difference is Trump did much better with men in the Q poll, as he was +21 in the Q Poll vs +10 in the MU poll (Kamala was +19 and 18, respectively). Both polls had very Trumpy non-white samples as Q had it tied among white voters and MU had Kamala +2 among white voters. If it was tied among non-white voters, I think Kamala wins by at least 6 and it could go as high as 10, but that would be unlikely. They had different age breakdowns (for example Q had young voters as 18-34 and MU had it 18-29) so its a little difficult to get an apples to apples comparison in that area.
Even though I can feel Skaje's judgement from my computer as I was doing it, I dug into the crosstabs of the Q Poll and compared it to the Marquette poll which showed Kamala up 5 (this was taken August 28-September 5 so mostly before and a little after the debate) and the big difference is the Independent number, the MU poll showed Kamala up 12 with Indies and the Q Poll had Trump +2 among Indies. The other big difference is Trump did much better with men in the Q poll, as he was +21 in the Q Poll vs +10 in the MU poll (Kamala was +19 and 18, respectively). Both polls had very Trumpy non-white samples as Q had it tied among white voters and MU had Kamala +2 among white voters. If it was tied among non-white voters, I think Kamala wins by at least 6 and it could go as high as 10, but that would be unlikely. They had different age breakdowns (for example Q had young voters as 18-34 and MU had it 18-29) so its a little difficult to get an apples to apples comparison in that area.