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anonymouse's avatar

NV-Gov: Memerson has Ford (D) and Lombardo (R)-inc. tied at 41-41. Trump at 39-54.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll/

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Kildere53's avatar

So I've been looking at recent Republican gerrymanders of Virginia to see how well they would've held up in the Democratic wave this year. First is the notorious HoD gerrymander in the 2010s that gave Republicans 66 seats. That map would have significantly backfired, as it contains 65 Spanberger districts and only 35 Sears districts. Of those 65, two voted for Reid and four more voted for Miyares, so the map still has 59 Jones districts. I estimate Dems would've won 62 seats had that map been used this year, or just two fewer seats than we actually won. The swings from the 2010s to now are incredible - there are seats intended to elect Republicans that voted for Spanberger by 2-1 margins. Even the 27th in Chesterfield County, which Dems never actually won during the life of the map, voted 60-40 for Spanberger.

In addition, do you all remember the state Senate Republican gerrymander that they tried to ram through in 2013? I found a map of it on Virginia's redistricting website and drew it out in DRA. It's quite the gerrymander - that map went 25-15 for Spanberger, but only 22-18 Hashmi and 20-20 in the AG election. The map comprehensively cracked Roanoke, and attempted to do the same for Charlottesville although one of those districts just barely voted for Jones (and Harris). Three districts on that map that were intended to elect Republicans - the 7th, 12th, and 13th - voted for Harris and all three Dems this year. So the map wouldn't achieve its intended purpose of electing a 24R-16D state Senate, but it would limit Democratic gains in a way that the current map doesn't (Dems would've picked up 5 seats if the state Senate had been up for election this year).

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