Not that surprising honestly. We lost in 2016 and 2024 elections by nominating candidates who couldn’t win over the average voter. Having a Democrat who has won a massively Republican state not once, but twice with electability being one of the top concerns from our voters in who we choose for 2028 makes a lot of sense to see him with so much early support. I’d be far more surprised if he wasn’t a front runner.
The major problem with gauging the opinion of the youth is that traditional polling methods are not as effective. I’m Gen Z and I don’t believe I’ve ever answered a poll. More digital polling probably needs to be done, Gen Z tend to be more online.
Here is an under-appreciated problem: Let’s say Democrats win a narrow House majority, and even a majority in the Senate, in 2026. Those majorities will be vulnerable to being snatched away by indictments from Trump’s DOJ, whether the accused are guilty or innocent.
It is, however, imperative that the Democratic Party vet its candidates thoroughly, and that candidates be squeaky clean and their histories unimpeachable.
If the polls are accurate (showing a 2018 midterm sized wipeout a year before 2026 midterms), the House majority will be more than 20 seats. And if Dems win a narrow Senate majority, that's enough to bar TACO from seating loyalists to SCOTUS or federal judicial seats.
EDIT: I would love to see a Democratic Senate majority refuse to confirm any Trump judges. And I want to see a Democratic president replace Thomas and Alito on the Supreme Court!
I pray that Schumer (should he become Majority Leader on January 2027) refuse to consider any Trump picks in the event Thomas and/or Alito resign or die in office. Or better yet, him saying "you can pick a SCOTUS justice from a list we compiled for President Biden", and watch TACO implode with anger.
A BS indictment will be evident if it’s anything like Comey, James, or Schiff. Especially if they try to do it on Democratic Senators with Republican Governors. They wouldn’t need to resign, either
Of course it would be evident – throughout history many manipulated miscarriages of justices have been evident. The question is whether such indictments, e.g. combined with temporary jailing, might allow Mike Johnson or John Thune to hang onto power while only part of the newly-elected House or Senate is allowed to be sworn in and take their seats.
Sure, once the Democratic majority is sworn in, seated in the House, and elect a Speaker. But I fear the interim is vulnerable to abuses of power. Likewise for the Senate.
Agreed! And my apologies for doom-posting if that’s how this might be seen. Clearly the best defense against all this is to work hard at creating a Blue Tsunami that is so strong and powerful that it cannot be denied!
I love that Arkansas voters are doing their own Respect MO Voters initiative drive. I hope this ruling encourages more voters to sign and canvass for it.
Would be nice if that separate clause (requiring signatures be gathered from 50 districts rather than 15) was knocked down too.
So I've been looking at recent Republican gerrymanders of Virginia to see how well they would've held up in the Democratic wave this year. First is the notorious HoD gerrymander in the 2010s that gave Republicans 66 seats. That map would have significantly backfired, as it contains 65 Spanberger districts and only 35 Sears districts. Of those 65, two voted for Reid and four more voted for Miyares, so the map still has 59 Jones districts. I estimate Dems would've won 62 seats had that map been used this year, or just two fewer seats than we actually won. The swings from the 2010s to now are incredible - there are seats intended to elect Republicans that voted for Spanberger by 2-1 margins. Even the 27th in Chesterfield County, which Dems never actually won during the life of the map, voted 60-40 for Spanberger.
In addition, do you all remember the state Senate Republican gerrymander that they tried to ram through in 2013? I found a map of it on Virginia's redistricting website and drew it out in DRA. It's quite the gerrymander - that map went 25-15 for Spanberger, but only 22-18 Hashmi and 20-20 in the AG election. The map comprehensively cracked Roanoke, and attempted to do the same for Charlottesville although one of those districts just barely voted for Jones (and Harris). Three districts on that map that were intended to elect Republicans - the 7th, 12th, and 13th - voted for Harris and all three Dems this year. So the map wouldn't achieve its intended purpose of electing a 24R-16D state Senate, but it would limit Democratic gains in a way that the current map doesn't (Dems would've picked up 5 seats if the state Senate had been up for election this year).
I would love it if North Carolina did a similar thing next year. Even though Roy Cooper will be running for US Senate (and not governor), his coattails could be big enough to flip a significant chunk of GOP legislative seats.
And SCONC Justice Anita Earls and the three Circuit Court Democratic seats will likely be re-elected as well.
Keep in mind, the 2018 midterms here in North Carolina did not have a US Senate seat up for grabs but Democrats made significant gains that election (that year had 53% turnout!). Heck, Jefferson Griffin ran for the Circuit Court of Appeals seat that year and LOST (he ran again in 2020 and won that one though).
TN-7 - Here's Democratic TN-7 congressional nominee Aftyn Behn's response to Republicans bizarrely claiming that she hates Nashville, a city she represents part of in the Tennessee House of Representatives:
That is the type of attack that isn't really designed to win over Republican voters, but dissuade Democrats from voting, and we could see a lot of that from Republicans next year.
One of my firmly held beliefs about good campaign communication is - never repeat your opponents attacks, even if only to negate them. Referencing the fact that the opponent is attacking is ok, as long as the specifics aren't repeated.
Technically, Behn is doing that here... but this seems different, because the actual attack is weird and doesn't tie in to the usual right-wing framing. As you say, it's more of a trickery attack that they're using, only it's a ridiculous one. So... I'm open to the possibility that Behn bringing this us up (because it's ridiculous) might be a good message.
I'd like to think that Democrats' BS meters are better than this. But who knows.
It's hard for me to see any significant number of Democrats staying home over this, and hard to see how Democratic turnout won't be higher than Republican turnout. Republicans must be really worried here.
Note: I still think that Van Epps wins, and that it won't be particularly close - I'm expecting a 57-42 victory for him.
Tipped because I follow your logic, but there's no doubt a substantial number of Democrats won't vote, because there are plenty of people who never vote except in presidential elections, when they get around to it, etc.
Top leadership did (Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar) that makes me think they all decided to do it together like last time and not drive a narrative of division at the top--I don't really think Clark in particular would otherwise. Tbh, I'm not sure if Jeffries would if he wasn't leader. The most of elected party leadership below them were nays or no votes (except for Lieu and Trahan for some reason and Susie Lee, which makes sense because she's the Battleground Leadership Rep).
Thanks. All of them need to be primaried for this shit, if indeed for nothing else. The unity of a fact-based Democratic Party is much more important than this kind of offensive tactical unity of Democratic House Leadership. They need to be replaced!
Oops, I missed that Horsford succeeded Robert Garcia as Caucus Leadership Rep (for members under five terms) after the latter became the Oversight ranking. He also was a yea.
I’d like to know what this resolution defines as “socialism”. Because knowing the GOP, I wouldn’t be surprised if their idea is universal healthcare. Or all social security. I don’t think they have the Soviets in mind — notice how it’s specifically socialism, and not communism.
The communists deliberately muddied the waters by calling their states "socialist." But that doesn't make a resolution to condemn the "horrors of socialism" globally thereby OK.
By the same logic, democracies can be authoritarian as well with a majority of the country votes for right wing policies decade after decade (looking squarely at Japan)
“socialist ideology necessitates a concentration of power that has, time and time again, collapsed into communist regimes, totalitarian rule, and brutal dictatorships”
“socialism has repeatedly led to famine and mass murders, and the killing of over 100,000,000 people worldwide”
“the United States was founded on the belief in the sanctity of the individual, to which the collectivistic system of socialism in all of its forms is fundamentally and necessarily opposed”
“Congress denounces socialism in all its forms, and opposes the implementation of socialist policies in the United States.”
No Democrat should be voting for something like this.
Absolute trash and defamation. It'll be a surprise to hundreds of millions of Europeans that socialist ideology always results in totalitarianism, not to mention Latin Americans who live in countries where the CIA conspired to overthrow democratic socialist governments and replace them with murderous right-wing dictatorships. Fuck everyone who voted for this!
I haven't looked closely at the new districts, but they must have made it bluer. He won in 2024 by under a thousand votes, so there's no room to make it redder.
Prop 50 added LA County/ more of LA County to western and northern OC districts to make them safer. The only one that isn't expected to be D is Young Kim's.
Other notable Democrats who voted for this trash include Pat Ryan, Jason Crow, Lucy McBath, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Ted Lieu, and Marcy Kaptur. A majority of the Massachusetts and New York delegations voted for this for some reason as well.
I find it hard myself to get worked up about who votes for or against performative resolutions like this. Sure it's annoying if reps vote a way we don't like but it's not a real bill anyway.
Are you a socialist? In any case, Democrats need to stand against lies, libel and the falsification of history. That's especially important when basic facts are under systemic attack by the party in power.
I highly recommend reading G. Elliott Morris' Strength in Numbers post from yesterday. He has left it open for all to read. There is a lot of technical detail, but the gist is that the labels are not resonating with a lot of voters.
Agree he'd probably be a stronger candidate, he ran well in the Senate race in a terrible environment and has a good profile. Acton is untested as a candidate but I think she still has a decent shot: typically the more people see of Ramaswamy, the less they like him.
The only thing Dems did during the pandemic that really hurt them among normies was closing schools. I don't know how soon Ohio reopened them. Vax mandates are broadly popular, and most people were fine with masks and keeping some businesses closed for a while.
Acton was also DeWine's appointee, and I think he's still pretty popular.
Also, in San Francisco Mayor London Breed during the pandemic had told movie theaters in the city to not sell concession food. Absolutely idiotic and stupid idea considering SF did nothing to give theaters loans or any other method of financial support as an alternative.
Movie theaters need concession sales in order to survive. Anyone who has worked at one (myself included) knows when you prevent concession sales, you put theaters out of business.
I read the article. You mean to say that vax mandates for infants are popular now and that there doesn't seem to be a lingering damage to Democratic politicians in general from actions taken during the pandemic. But we're talking about a health official in a Republican state in this case.
That's a legit concern: her big credential is leading state health policy (she's never won elected office), and whatever the wisdom of her policies on COVID were, reminding voters of that for a year doesn't sound like a great winning strategy.
But what might have been a clear liability in 2022 won't necessarily be in 2026. This polling suggests that COVID policy isn't as much of a liability now as Republicans think and much of the media has assumed, in part perhaps because it's old news:
And with health care policy debates now focused on Medicaid, ACA subsidies, and RFK Jr., it's potentially a very strong issue for Acton (and Dems almost everywhere) if the cards are properly played.
We know from experience that Ryan has the stamina to run ahead of the Democratic baseline. Acton is a wild card. I'd say that's a net negative for Dems a year out.
I get the feeling he could have outperformed even more against Vivek. Race and culture being part of it but for other reasons too. Not writing Action off but agree with the "wild card" description.
Looks like we have returned to the normal state of affairs, where Tim Ryan gets talked about as a statewide candidate every single cycle but never actually runs. See also "Joaquin Castro".
"This summer" looks like a cut-and-paste mistake in this sentence of the digest: "Three men are still waging serious efforts for the Democratic nod: Marine veteran Evan Munsing, state Rep. Manny Rutinel, and state Treasurer Dave Young next summer."
Nevada voted for Trump because of the substantial rightward shift among the Hispanic and Asian populations in the Las Vegas area. Those are the same groups of people who swung heavily back toward the Democrats in the elections this year. Not sure why you'd think Nevada would be immune from that.
I have also heard that Vegas' economy is getting kicked in the teeth, with someone I spoke with using the word "collapse". Wonder what that's going to do to our chances there and in the state overall.
Everything I've seen from Vegas news has been capital B bad. Slate had this recent piece about how priced out working and middle-class tourists have abandoned the city to the wealthy or hardcore gamblers (great mirror on the state of the economy) - https://slate.com/business/2025/11/las-vegas-travel-sphere-hotel-donald-trump.html
Frankly, Las Vegas was hit hard from the COVID-19 pandemic and has not exactly rebounded much since then. Governor Steve Sisolak did the right thing with the decisions he made over the pandemic but Las Vegas is not NYC or San Francisco.
Agreed seems like they could be prime to swing back. Nevada has always been pretty elastic, only long term concern is if the education gap between the parties sticks around.
Nah. Nevada has a disproportionate number of less engaged, low-trust types who just vote their perceived personal interests and swung against Dems in 2024 over inflation and are swinging against Trump now.
It wasn't just East Coast Hispanics who snapped back to the Democrats this year. Just look at the margins that Prop 50 got in heavily Hispanic cities in California. They've swung back too.
I don't think Nevadans will punish anyone for relocating teams there. Did Californians punish anyone for the Dodgers betraying Brooklyn? Sorry if my sympathy is very limited; I do wish the Bay Area teams had stayed put.
Same here although I do not put the blame primarily on Sheng Thao for what happened to the A’s.
Libby Schaaf gets most of the blame as she consumed her last year with nothing other than trying to get the A’s to stay in Oakland. She has the unique fortune of having been the worst Mayor in the city’s history because of the A’s, Raiders and Warriors leaving Oakland.
If Joe Tuman were elected back in 2014, he would have taken a more responsible approach. Unfortunately, Schaaf took up all the steam from his campaign. Had she not run, Tuman might have been elected.
No issues with your sentiment. However, going from Brooklyn to LA is a much different concept than going from Oakland to Las Vegas.
A’s owner John Fisher and Dave Kaval thought are real dicks. Kaval especially as I cannot understand how someone with a Stanford MBA decides to be this cool and hip guy with the A’s fans for years only then to triangulate over the notion of being open to a waterfront location for the A’s only then to pull out at the last minute in heading to Las Vegas.
A’s and Raiders teams do not belong in Las Vegas. There are no fans there and it’s a dumb concept to put these teams in that kind of city.
Anyway, Governor Lombardo signed off on the move and I hate him.
"going from Brooklyn to LA is a much different concept than going from Oakland to Las Vegas."
How? If anything, it's worse, because it's marginally feasible for Californians to go to Vegas. Brooklyn fans who wanted to stay Dodgers fans had to move to L.A. to watch games. A very small number did. To Brooklynites in general, opinion polls rated Walter O'Malley as the third-worst man in history, after Hitler and Stalin.
Question: who do people here think will win the CO-08 Dem primary? I like Manny Rutinel myself (Baca-Oehlert dropping out also contributed to this sentiment), and I have a feeling he’ll win — but I could also see the others having a reasonable path. Thoughts?
I've met Rutinel, and he comes across as an arrogant pretty boy imo. There are also some (so far unsubstantiated) rumors about how he treats women. I have no idea if the rumors are true, it might just be his opponents trying to weaken him, but it does make me worry a bit about something coming out right before the general election.
I like him as well and definitely want more LGBTQ+ representation in Congress. But this is a Trump +2 seat, and Rutinel has never actually run a competitive race. I think he was appointed to his first race and mostly unopposed thereafter. Dave Young is 72, which in the absence of other factors makes him less than ideal, so I think guess Shannon Bird may be the one to root for.
I'll admit I'm being judgemental, but when I met him he was pretty condescending, especially to people younger than him. Which is ironic since he wants to be seen as a young dem. He also bragged about gaining lots of social media followers after he posted thirst traps, which rubbed me the wrong way. He'll probably be fine as the dem nominee, he's just not the kind of candidate I tend to like.
Kinda want to dig further on the condescending remarks or actions but if too personal I get it. The thirst trap thing rubs me the wrong way too but most of the people I know that fit in the 18-35 group probably would like that lol.
First I’ll get this right out of the way at the top: Dave Young won’t win, the primary or general: he’s too old for a party roiling with age debates right now. If we nominate him we will lose the seat to Republicans irrespective of the national political environment.
Rutinel is 1 of 2 elected officials running and while a marine veteran outsider has the exact profile that has succeeded flipping districts from red to blue, we really need someone Hispanic in this district to figure out how to hold it long term. So in my mind there’s really only 1 choice here.
Shannon Bird is no slouch as a politician and is a strong candidate who can win the primary with a plurality of mostly women voters (of which they makeup the backbone of our party of all races). I do think she can win in a Trump midterm. Whether she can hold it long term, that I’m far more doubtful of.
Also, this shouldn’t matter, but unfortunately does, in politics: Rutinel is attractive. He’s going to get a point or two boost from voters just based on his looks. He’s the front runner here to win in 2026 and hold the seat beyond that and the money race says exactly the same thing in the most recent quarter:
Thanks for that informative post! I would push back slightly on your remarks about Young, just because if voters are angry enough at Republicans, they are likely to vote for whomever is running on the Democratic line, regardless of anything else.
And I’d just say we agree to disagree on that slight pushback. Evans can turn the race into an age/race referendum on who is best to serve the district easily instead of it being on his Trump MAGA extremist voting record in Congress.
So instead of voters voting based on the GOP trifecta/economy he can quickly localize the race “I’m young, Hispanic and I’m accomplishing important work for our district, he’s too old to do the job and doesn’t represent our shared values” and the uneducated voters will fall like suckers for the con job.
If Young was old and Hispanic or younger and white, he could overcome the electoral deficit of one of those two factors in a Trump backlash midterm. But both being present at the same time? Nope, no way, he’d lose imo by 2-3 points no matter the national wave results elsewhere, just like Golden survived bad years for our party, Evans would survive facing an easy to contrast and attack opponent like Dave Young.
Thank you. I try to do that for every stance I take in politics and elections even if people disagree with me. I want them to at least understand the why behind it so it’s clearer to them what I’m saying and what rationale leads me to it. It’s very rare when I just say something based on a dart board of throwing things at the wall or on my own gut. I think about everything and anything a lot before I come to a position on any topic (including in real life too) I don’t know about.
It takes me hours or days, not minutes to decide to make a new electronics purchase because I research the companies behind it, the reviews, the prices, the environmental impact, the labor that went into it, the alternatives and everything that comes well before it goes up for sale. It’s just who I am at the very core of my being and I wish I had an off switch to be honest, but I don’t lol.
It sounds like they'd have 3 million left over if they repaid the entire loan right away, and I'm sure they don't have to, so they don't sound close to insolvent.
It’s obvious the weakest link in our party are the national organizations, with DNC topping the list. Money obviously doesn’t mean everything, but they clearly need to start picking up the pace to avoid being completely blown out by the GOP counterparts.
After 2024 no one was gung ho about donating to the national party or any dem, we will be at a disadvantage for a while. Thankfully money doesn't have the impact like it used to
Ken Martin has a different spending strategy than Harrison. He is incredibly efficient with using resources and uses the philosophy that an early dollar is worth 5+ late dollars. It may seem strange to people who haven't seen the miracle worker work his magic up close before. He of anyone, deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to running a political party apparatus.
And yet we did amazingly this year. Does Politico seriously think Dems are in disarray given the polling, results, national environment, no Trump on the ballot, Epstein, etc.?
“Ok guys, we know what we have to do. Democrats aren’t for sure going to win back the House and Senate so we can publish what we need to get more readers to our attention by talking about Democrats more and more, even if it’s negative headlines!”
I believe that's the first poll where Abughazaleh is doing better than healthy-but-distant 2nd place. I wonder if she's gaining or if it's just polling noise.
Don't know for sure, but she's really raised her profile by taking part in the protests at Bridgeview. Lots of texts from Biss. Interesting to see if the field shrinks and the departing candidates support Biss.
Creating good trouble for our party is rewarded so far in primaries held since Trump won re-election.
Our voters are tending to be drawn more the people who are louder opposition and willing to do things others aren’t. Ras Baraka’s surprise primary showing in NJ after getting arrested at an ICE protest. Abughazaleh getting indicted by Trump’s administration and seeing her primary numbers surge.
Even Deja Foxx getting 20% of our voters despite a last minute mostly online campaign who has never even held office before and her opponent Grijalva being endorsed by both ends of our party (Bernie and national Dems) as well as her having a long elected career of service.
Once is an anomaly, twice is unusual, three times becomes a pattern. Now, obviously all of these candidates lost their races so far, so it’s not exactly a sweeping wave of discontent away from the normal Democrats, but if you look at it in terms of expectations, AZ-07 is completely debatable and I think Grijalva overperformed fwiw. For the other 2 races though, so far the candidate overperforming expectations is these kinds of Democrats.
Could mean something for 2026 primaries or could just say there’s not enough discontent from our voters to actually beat the expected type of candidates our voters usually gravitate towards. Something to watch moving forward though into the midterms.
Wild flurry of redistricting action on a Friday eve lol.
-TX panel denied the stay request, which moved up to SCOTUS and Alito accepted as circuit justice with a Monday at 5pm ET deadline for reply briefs (expected to move to the full Court for consideration)
-Three judge district panel in FL is moving forward on a racial gerrymandering trial for FL-26 (Mario Díaz-Balart) and three state house districts (but not four other state house districts)
-Three judge panel in CA disagreed with the parties on moving prelim injunction hearing from 12/3 to late Jan, but compromised with 12/15.
I’m surprised Beshear is that high up.
Not that surprising honestly. We lost in 2016 and 2024 elections by nominating candidates who couldn’t win over the average voter. Having a Democrat who has won a massively Republican state not once, but twice with electability being one of the top concerns from our voters in who we choose for 2028 makes a lot of sense to see him with so much early support. I’d be far more surprised if he wasn’t a front runner.
I’m more just surprised his name recognition is high enough for him to be a front runner.
The unlikelihood of that is something that contributes to making this poll a little questionable.
Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by like 3.5 million votes, so you're wrong.
Since the subject of poll is a banned topic here, I'll simply muse: Emerson found enough under 30 registered voters to answer a poll? In one day?
Lol, good observation.
But your larger point is correct - this is very much a banned topic.
I think Beshear would be the best candidate for us but i'm shocked how well he's doing in this poll.
This is just young people
Yea that's partly why i'm shocked
The major problem with gauging the opinion of the youth is that traditional polling methods are not as effective. I’m Gen Z and I don’t believe I’ve ever answered a poll. More digital polling probably needs to be done, Gen Z tend to be more online.
I'm an early millennial, online often, and never answered a poll in my life.
Outside of the banned topic, a poll of the least likely to vote and hardest to reach demographic seems of questionable value.
The whole topic of Democratic presidential primaries is banned.
Here is an under-appreciated problem: Let’s say Democrats win a narrow House majority, and even a majority in the Senate, in 2026. Those majorities will be vulnerable to being snatched away by indictments from Trump’s DOJ, whether the accused are guilty or innocent.
It is, however, imperative that the Democratic Party vet its candidates thoroughly, and that candidates be squeaky clean and their histories unimpeachable.
If the polls are accurate (showing a 2018 midterm sized wipeout a year before 2026 midterms), the House majority will be more than 20 seats. And if Dems win a narrow Senate majority, that's enough to bar TACO from seating loyalists to SCOTUS or federal judicial seats.
That is my hope and my prayer.
EDIT: I would love to see a Democratic Senate majority refuse to confirm any Trump judges. And I want to see a Democratic president replace Thomas and Alito on the Supreme Court!
I pray that Schumer (should he become Majority Leader on January 2027) refuse to consider any Trump picks in the event Thomas and/or Alito resign or die in office. Or better yet, him saying "you can pick a SCOTUS justice from a list we compiled for President Biden", and watch TACO implode with anger.
Anita Hill would be the perfect replacement for Clarence Thomas. Karma!
In theory, but she was born July 30, 1956, so too old.
Yeah barring a complete collapse in the redistricting wars, if we win a narrow majority in the Senate we have a decent sized majority in the House.
A BS indictment will be evident if it’s anything like Comey, James, or Schiff. Especially if they try to do it on Democratic Senators with Republican Governors. They wouldn’t need to resign, either
Of course it would be evident – throughout history many manipulated miscarriages of justices have been evident. The question is whether such indictments, e.g. combined with temporary jailing, might allow Mike Johnson or John Thune to hang onto power while only part of the newly-elected House or Senate is allowed to be sworn in and take their seats.
Couldn't the Democratic majority work out a way for jailed member to vote remotely, if it really came to that, which I doubt it would?
Sure, once the Democratic majority is sworn in, seated in the House, and elect a Speaker. But I fear the interim is vulnerable to abuses of power. Likewise for the Senate.
I fear election-stealing by various means more than that.
Agreed! And my apologies for doom-posting if that’s how this might be seen. Clearly the best defense against all this is to work hard at creating a Blue Tsunami that is so strong and powerful that it cannot be denied!
I love that Arkansas voters are doing their own Respect MO Voters initiative drive. I hope this ruling encourages more voters to sign and canvass for it.
Would be nice if that separate clause (requiring signatures be gathered from 50 districts rather than 15) was knocked down too.
So I've been looking at recent Republican gerrymanders of Virginia to see how well they would've held up in the Democratic wave this year. First is the notorious HoD gerrymander in the 2010s that gave Republicans 66 seats. That map would have significantly backfired, as it contains 65 Spanberger districts and only 35 Sears districts. Of those 65, two voted for Reid and four more voted for Miyares, so the map still has 59 Jones districts. I estimate Dems would've won 62 seats had that map been used this year, or just two fewer seats than we actually won. The swings from the 2010s to now are incredible - there are seats intended to elect Republicans that voted for Spanberger by 2-1 margins. Even the 27th in Chesterfield County, which Dems never actually won during the life of the map, voted 60-40 for Spanberger.
In addition, do you all remember the state Senate Republican gerrymander that they tried to ram through in 2013? I found a map of it on Virginia's redistricting website and drew it out in DRA. It's quite the gerrymander - that map went 25-15 for Spanberger, but only 22-18 Hashmi and 20-20 in the AG election. The map comprehensively cracked Roanoke, and attempted to do the same for Charlottesville although one of those districts just barely voted for Jones (and Harris). Three districts on that map that were intended to elect Republicans - the 7th, 12th, and 13th - voted for Harris and all three Dems this year. So the map wouldn't achieve its intended purpose of electing a 24R-16D state Senate, but it would limit Democratic gains in a way that the current map doesn't (Dems would've picked up 5 seats if the state Senate had been up for election this year).
I remember that incident where they tried to do that to the State Senate. The Gov. eventually came out against it and sunk it.
I would love it if North Carolina did a similar thing next year. Even though Roy Cooper will be running for US Senate (and not governor), his coattails could be big enough to flip a significant chunk of GOP legislative seats.
And SCONC Justice Anita Earls and the three Circuit Court Democratic seats will likely be re-elected as well.
Keep in mind, the 2018 midterms here in North Carolina did not have a US Senate seat up for grabs but Democrats made significant gains that election (that year had 53% turnout!). Heck, Jefferson Griffin ran for the Circuit Court of Appeals seat that year and LOST (he ran again in 2020 and won that one though).
TN-7 - Here's Democratic TN-7 congressional nominee Aftyn Behn's response to Republicans bizarrely claiming that she hates Nashville, a city she represents part of in the Tennessee House of Representatives:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRTH5OsCPnT/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA
That is the type of attack that isn't really designed to win over Republican voters, but dissuade Democrats from voting, and we could see a lot of that from Republicans next year.
So, this has me thinking.
One of my firmly held beliefs about good campaign communication is - never repeat your opponents attacks, even if only to negate them. Referencing the fact that the opponent is attacking is ok, as long as the specifics aren't repeated.
Technically, Behn is doing that here... but this seems different, because the actual attack is weird and doesn't tie in to the usual right-wing framing. As you say, it's more of a trickery attack that they're using, only it's a ridiculous one. So... I'm open to the possibility that Behn bringing this us up (because it's ridiculous) might be a good message.
I'd like to think that Democrats' BS meters are better than this. But who knows.
It's hard for me to see any significant number of Democrats staying home over this, and hard to see how Democratic turnout won't be higher than Republican turnout. Republicans must be really worried here.
Note: I still think that Van Epps wins, and that it won't be particularly close - I'm expecting a 57-42 victory for him.
Tipped because I follow your logic, but there's no doubt a substantial number of Democrats won't vote, because there are plenty of people who never vote except in presidential elections, when they get around to it, etc.
"Interesting intra-Dem split on anti-socialism vote.
Some notable Nos:
Pelosi and Hoyer
Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, both facing lefty primary challenges
Yvette Clark, Brooklyn district bordering Jeffries
Lauren Underwood
Notable Yeses:
Jeffries and his leadership team
Ritchie Torries, facing lefty challenger
Haley Stevens, Chris Pappas, Angie Craig, all running for Senate"
https://x.com/stevemorris__/status/1991906781614731278
https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1991904632436838460
Interesting question: what would politically have happened if Jeffries had simply abstained, instead of voting yes?
He whipped the leadership team.
Did they all vote for this garbage?
Top leadership did (Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar) that makes me think they all decided to do it together like last time and not drive a narrative of division at the top--I don't really think Clark in particular would otherwise. Tbh, I'm not sure if Jeffries would if he wasn't leader. The most of elected party leadership below them were nays or no votes (except for Lieu and Trahan for some reason and Susie Lee, which makes sense because she's the Battleground Leadership Rep).
https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2025305
Thanks. All of them need to be primaried for this shit, if indeed for nothing else. The unity of a fact-based Democratic Party is much more important than this kind of offensive tactical unity of Democratic House Leadership. They need to be replaced!
Really not sure stupid grandstanding votes are worth a primary challenge on their own, especially considering most voters aren't going to care.
Oops, I missed that Horsford succeeded Robert Garcia as Caucus Leadership Rep (for members under five terms) after the latter became the Oversight ranking. He also was a yea.
Every Democrat who voted for this piece of slander needs to be primaried. First I heard about it, and I'm personally offended.
I’d like to know what this resolution defines as “socialism”. Because knowing the GOP, I wouldn’t be surprised if their idea is universal healthcare. Or all social security. I don’t think they have the Soviets in mind — notice how it’s specifically socialism, and not communism.
The communists deliberately muddied the waters by calling their states "socialist." But that doesn't make a resolution to condemn the "horrors of socialism" globally thereby OK.
Heck, communists deliberately muddied the waters also by calling their countries "Democratic".
Yes, and for that matter, "people's" and "republic".
They did have democratic structures. Many had official opposition/coalition parties, etc. China still does.
Come on, those are shams! China is a totalitarian state.
But communists are authoritarian state socialists. George Orwell was a democratic socialist and he wrote books critical of authoritarian socialism.
I don't even accept dictatorships as socialist. Socialism means the workers own the means of production, not a class of aparatchiks.
I think that is a contentious claim.
Dictatorships can absolutely be socialist.
By the same logic, democracies can be authoritarian as well with a majority of the country votes for right wing policies decade after decade (looking squarely at Japan)
Here’s the link to the text of the resolution.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/58/text
Among other things it says:
“socialist ideology necessitates a concentration of power that has, time and time again, collapsed into communist regimes, totalitarian rule, and brutal dictatorships”
“socialism has repeatedly led to famine and mass murders, and the killing of over 100,000,000 people worldwide”
“the United States was founded on the belief in the sanctity of the individual, to which the collectivistic system of socialism in all of its forms is fundamentally and necessarily opposed”
“Congress denounces socialism in all its forms, and opposes the implementation of socialist policies in the United States.”
No Democrat should be voting for something like this.
Absolute trash and defamation. It'll be a surprise to hundreds of millions of Europeans that socialist ideology always results in totalitarianism, not to mention Latin Americans who live in countries where the CIA conspired to overthrow democratic socialist governments and replace them with murderous right-wing dictatorships. Fuck everyone who voted for this!
Yeah, the framing is terrible and dishonest. And I'm a centre-lefty type.
You'd get my non-abstention if and only if there was an immediate second vote on the perils of authoritarian "Dear Leader"-ism.
The Xitter link is not working for me.
This is the only way to refer to Xitter, and yes, it's pronounced "shitter".
Derek Tran voting no is interesting given the conservative/capitalist views of many Vietnamese Americans.
Didn’t they make his district bluer? Or was it redder?
I haven't looked closely at the new districts, but they must have made it bluer. He won in 2024 by under a thousand votes, so there's no room to make it redder.
Prop 50 added LA County/ more of LA County to western and northern OC districts to make them safer. The only one that isn't expected to be D is Young Kim's.
It went from Harris +1.5 to Harris +4.
Other notable Democrats who voted for this trash include Pat Ryan, Jason Crow, Lucy McBath, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Ted Lieu, and Marcy Kaptur. A majority of the Massachusetts and New York delegations voted for this for some reason as well.
I suspect New York’s vote is retaliation for Mamdani/the rise of the DSA in NYC. Which is also garbage.
Jeffries is hot garbage.
Ted Lieu seems surprising to me.
If dems take the house then we'll need an anti-nazi vote.
"fascism"
I find it hard myself to get worked up about who votes for or against performative resolutions like this. Sure it's annoying if reps vote a way we don't like but it's not a real bill anyway.
Are you a socialist? In any case, Democrats need to stand against lies, libel and the falsification of history. That's especially important when basic facts are under systemic attack by the party in power.
Yes I consider myself a social democrat/democratic socialist, however you like to define that. Pretty far left.
It's not worth a circular firing squad.
I highly recommend reading G. Elliott Morris' Strength in Numbers post from yesterday. He has left it open for all to read. There is a lot of technical detail, but the gist is that the labels are not resonating with a lot of voters.
https://open.substack.com/pub/gelliottmorris/p/not-just-left-vs-right-most-voters?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Underwood has always had a surprisingly progressive voting record for someone who represents a district that isn't overwhelmingly Democratic.
Tim Ryan not running for governor.
www.10tv.com/article/news/politics/tim-ryan-not-running-2026-ohio-governor-race/530-512c2bd2-34c0-4b62-be20-34469af5a7b2
That’s too bad.
Damn. He had a better shot than Acton I thought.
Agree he'd probably be a stronger candidate, he ran well in the Senate race in a terrible environment and has a good profile. Acton is untested as a candidate but I think she still has a decent shot: typically the more people see of Ramaswamy, the less they like him.
That is true, Vivek is pretty spectacularly awful as far as candidates go.
Is she likely to be a lightning rod for actions any responsible health official had to make during the pandemic?
The only thing Dems did during the pandemic that really hurt them among normies was closing schools. I don't know how soon Ohio reopened them. Vax mandates are broadly popular, and most people were fine with masks and keeping some businesses closed for a while.
Acton was also DeWine's appointee, and I think he's still pretty popular.
Your memory is very different from mine if you think that vax mandates, still less mask requirements, were broadly popular everywhere.
Also, in San Francisco Mayor London Breed during the pandemic had told movie theaters in the city to not sell concession food. Absolutely idiotic and stupid idea considering SF did nothing to give theaters loans or any other method of financial support as an alternative.
Movie theaters need concession sales in order to survive. Anyone who has worked at one (myself included) knows when you prevent concession sales, you put theaters out of business.
I read the article. You mean to say that vax mandates for infants are popular now and that there doesn't seem to be a lingering damage to Democratic politicians in general from actions taken during the pandemic. But we're talking about a health official in a Republican state in this case.
Nothing wrong with saying, "In hindsight, we would have been better to do X, but we only know this because the science has shown Y."
Not for people who respect science.
What? Even the science community acknowledges that things would have been differently in hindsight?
That's a legit concern: her big credential is leading state health policy (she's never won elected office), and whatever the wisdom of her policies on COVID were, reminding voters of that for a year doesn't sound like a great winning strategy.
But what might have been a clear liability in 2022 won't necessarily be in 2026. This polling suggests that COVID policy isn't as much of a liability now as Republicans think and much of the media has assumed, in part perhaps because it's old news:
https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-covid-political-backlash-disappeared
And with health care policy debates now focused on Medicaid, ACA subsidies, and RFK Jr., it's potentially a very strong issue for Acton (and Dems almost everywhere) if the cards are properly played.
Actually polling shows a negligible difference between the two. Acton wouldn’t do much different from Ryan. Question is if she’ll run ahead of Brown?
We know from experience that Ryan has the stamina to run ahead of the Democratic baseline. Acton is a wild card. I'd say that's a net negative for Dems a year out.
I get the feeling he could have outperformed even more against Vivek. Race and culture being part of it but for other reasons too. Not writing Action off but agree with the "wild card" description.
Looks like we have returned to the normal state of affairs, where Tim Ryan gets talked about as a statewide candidate every single cycle but never actually runs. See also "Joaquin Castro".
Amen to this! So tired of it.
Yeah, really sick of his bullshit. He should just disappear from politics.
Good. If he had wanted to run, he should have jumped in a LOT sooner.
Wow. No indication he was anything other than a yes. Disappointing.
"This summer" looks like a cut-and-paste mistake in this sentence of the digest: "Three men are still waging serious efforts for the Democratic nod: Marine veteran Evan Munsing, state Rep. Manny Rutinel, and state Treasurer Dave Young next summer."
NV-Gov: Memerson has Ford (D) and Lombardo (R)-inc. tied at 41-41. Trump at 39-54.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll/
Well that’s some surprisingly good news. I thought we were done for in NV given the voter registration patterns.
Nevada voted for Trump because of the substantial rightward shift among the Hispanic and Asian populations in the Las Vegas area. Those are the same groups of people who swung heavily back toward the Democrats in the elections this year. Not sure why you'd think Nevada would be immune from that.
and if the "no tax on tips" bs proposal had an impact anywhere, it was there.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/nevada-economic-concerns-threaten-wipe-away-trump-latino-voter-gains-rcna244993
I have also heard that Vegas' economy is getting kicked in the teeth, with someone I spoke with using the word "collapse". Wonder what that's going to do to our chances there and in the state overall.
As they say if the country catches a cold, Las Vegas catches the flu.
Everything I've seen from Vegas news has been capital B bad. Slate had this recent piece about how priced out working and middle-class tourists have abandoned the city to the wealthy or hardcore gamblers (great mirror on the state of the economy) - https://slate.com/business/2025/11/las-vegas-travel-sphere-hotel-donald-trump.html
Something about getting what you vote for.
Frankly, Las Vegas was hit hard from the COVID-19 pandemic and has not exactly rebounded much since then. Governor Steve Sisolak did the right thing with the decisions he made over the pandemic but Las Vegas is not NYC or San Francisco.
It isn't, but it's not like New York didn't suffer greatly from the pandemic!
I was going off voter registration patterns. Which may not have been the right approach, you’re right.
You do have to be careful about that. Remember that independents along with turnout usually determine election results.
Astute observation, and you’re right.
Agreed seems like they could be prime to swing back. Nevada has always been pretty elastic, only long term concern is if the education gap between the parties sticks around.
Nah. Nevada has a disproportionate number of less engaged, low-trust types who just vote their perceived personal interests and swung against Dems in 2024 over inflation and are swinging against Trump now.
The poll has Lombardo +8 with independents. And after the 2024 debacle I am unsold on the 'Nevada indies lean Democrat' argument.
Also, we cannot assume that the Latino snapback of East coast Hispanics will translate in the west.
has the west been immune from this "burn it all down so we can buy the scraps for a steal" approach to governing by that man in the white house?
You should take a look at Trump's approval ratings with Latinos in CA.
It wasn't just East Coast Hispanics who snapped back to the Democrats this year. Just look at the margins that Prop 50 got in heavily Hispanic cities in California. They've swung back too.
We do in fact have recent elections in latino areas of Arizona and California. They each suggest a massive snapback.
Also, Lombardo’s +8 with indies is because he’s up only 34-26 with them, LMAO.
Note that Emerson had a practically identical result for NJ Gov a couple of months ago.
Unseat Joe Lombardo so we can send a message that the A’s do not belong in Las Vegas. Same with the Raiders.
I don't think Nevadans will punish anyone for relocating teams there. Did Californians punish anyone for the Dodgers betraying Brooklyn? Sorry if my sympathy is very limited; I do wish the Bay Area teams had stayed put.
Thanks, Sheng Thao! Glad she's gone.
Same here although I do not put the blame primarily on Sheng Thao for what happened to the A’s.
Libby Schaaf gets most of the blame as she consumed her last year with nothing other than trying to get the A’s to stay in Oakland. She has the unique fortune of having been the worst Mayor in the city’s history because of the A’s, Raiders and Warriors leaving Oakland.
If Joe Tuman were elected back in 2014, he would have taken a more responsible approach. Unfortunately, Schaaf took up all the steam from his campaign. Had she not run, Tuman might have been elected.
No issues with your sentiment. However, going from Brooklyn to LA is a much different concept than going from Oakland to Las Vegas.
A’s owner John Fisher and Dave Kaval thought are real dicks. Kaval especially as I cannot understand how someone with a Stanford MBA decides to be this cool and hip guy with the A’s fans for years only then to triangulate over the notion of being open to a waterfront location for the A’s only then to pull out at the last minute in heading to Las Vegas.
A’s and Raiders teams do not belong in Las Vegas. There are no fans there and it’s a dumb concept to put these teams in that kind of city.
Anyway, Governor Lombardo signed off on the move and I hate him.
"going from Brooklyn to LA is a much different concept than going from Oakland to Las Vegas."
How? If anything, it's worse, because it's marginally feasible for Californians to go to Vegas. Brooklyn fans who wanted to stay Dodgers fans had to move to L.A. to watch games. A very small number did. To Brooklynites in general, opinion polls rated Walter O'Malley as the third-worst man in history, after Hitler and Stalin.
Question: who do people here think will win the CO-08 Dem primary? I like Manny Rutinel myself (Baca-Oehlert dropping out also contributed to this sentiment), and I have a feeling he’ll win — but I could also see the others having a reasonable path. Thoughts?
I've met Rutinel, and he comes across as an arrogant pretty boy imo. There are also some (so far unsubstantiated) rumors about how he treats women. I have no idea if the rumors are true, it might just be his opponents trying to weaken him, but it does make me worry a bit about something coming out right before the general election.
I like him as well and definitely want more LGBTQ+ representation in Congress. But this is a Trump +2 seat, and Rutinel has never actually run a competitive race. I think he was appointed to his first race and mostly unopposed thereafter. Dave Young is 72, which in the absence of other factors makes him less than ideal, so I think guess Shannon Bird may be the one to root for.
If 2026 is shaking up to be what I think it is, Democrats could run a bag of dog poo in this seat and it would likely beat Gabe Evans.
Well we want someone who is strong enough to hold the seat in less favorable years going forward.
I don't think Rutinel is gay?
Yeah news to me. Can he speak fluent Spanish? is my bigger question. The district has the largest Hispanic population of all eight districts by far.
He's not gay, he's just hot lol
"I've met Rutinel, and he comes across as an arrogant pretty boy imo. " if you don't mind me asking how so?
I'll admit I'm being judgemental, but when I met him he was pretty condescending, especially to people younger than him. Which is ironic since he wants to be seen as a young dem. He also bragged about gaining lots of social media followers after he posted thirst traps, which rubbed me the wrong way. He'll probably be fine as the dem nominee, he's just not the kind of candidate I tend to like.
Kinda want to dig further on the condescending remarks or actions but if too personal I get it. The thirst trap thing rubs me the wrong way too but most of the people I know that fit in the 18-35 group probably would like that lol.
Whoever is better at winning over Weld county voters is who i'm for.
First I’ll get this right out of the way at the top: Dave Young won’t win, the primary or general: he’s too old for a party roiling with age debates right now. If we nominate him we will lose the seat to Republicans irrespective of the national political environment.
Rutinel is 1 of 2 elected officials running and while a marine veteran outsider has the exact profile that has succeeded flipping districts from red to blue, we really need someone Hispanic in this district to figure out how to hold it long term. So in my mind there’s really only 1 choice here.
Shannon Bird is no slouch as a politician and is a strong candidate who can win the primary with a plurality of mostly women voters (of which they makeup the backbone of our party of all races). I do think she can win in a Trump midterm. Whether she can hold it long term, that I’m far more doubtful of.
Also, this shouldn’t matter, but unfortunately does, in politics: Rutinel is attractive. He’s going to get a point or two boost from voters just based on his looks. He’s the front runner here to win in 2026 and hold the seat beyond that and the money race says exactly the same thing in the most recent quarter:
Rutinel: $487k
Bird: $385k
Munsing: $260k
Young: $89k
Politics is not unlike that old joke about Two Rules for Dating:
Rule 1 - don’t be ugly
Rule 2 - See Rule 1
Of course this somehow doesn’t apply to TACO
Haha
Eh it seems that more politicians than not are ugly.
Not the first time they run, I think. A lot of them are very good-looking.
Thanks for that informative post! I would push back slightly on your remarks about Young, just because if voters are angry enough at Republicans, they are likely to vote for whomever is running on the Democratic line, regardless of anything else.
And I’d just say we agree to disagree on that slight pushback. Evans can turn the race into an age/race referendum on who is best to serve the district easily instead of it being on his Trump MAGA extremist voting record in Congress.
So instead of voters voting based on the GOP trifecta/economy he can quickly localize the race “I’m young, Hispanic and I’m accomplishing important work for our district, he’s too old to do the job and doesn’t represent our shared values” and the uneducated voters will fall like suckers for the con job.
If Young was old and Hispanic or younger and white, he could overcome the electoral deficit of one of those two factors in a Trump backlash midterm. But both being present at the same time? Nope, no way, he’d lose imo by 2-3 points no matter the national wave results elsewhere, just like Golden survived bad years for our party, Evans would survive facing an easy to contrast and attack opponent like Dave Young.
That's certainly a well thought out prediction.
Thank you. I try to do that for every stance I take in politics and elections even if people disagree with me. I want them to at least understand the why behind it so it’s clearer to them what I’m saying and what rationale leads me to it. It’s very rare when I just say something based on a dart board of throwing things at the wall or on my own gut. I think about everything and anything a lot before I come to a position on any topic (including in real life too) I don’t know about.
It takes me hours or days, not minutes to decide to make a new electronics purchase because I research the companies behind it, the reviews, the prices, the environmental impact, the labor that went into it, the alternatives and everything that comes well before it goes up for sale. It’s just who I am at the very core of my being and I wish I had an off switch to be honest, but I don’t lol.
Dhruv Patel
@dhruvtkpatel
SCOOP: After a cozy 2005 wedding in Cambridge, Larry Summers and Elisa New set off on their honeymoon.
But the trip took them somewhere far off the usual newlywed map — the private island of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
https://x.com/dhruvtkpatel/status/1991561360103391247
Dear god.
The DNC is nearly broke:
$18 million on hand by the end of October but 15 million was of a loan taken out before the elections.
RNC has $86 million cash on hand end of September.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/20/dnc-loan-elections-fundraising-00663982
It sounds like they'd have 3 million left over if they repaid the entire loan right away, and I'm sure they don't have to, so they don't sound close to insolvent.
3 million for a national party is broke. I never said insolvent.
They have expenditures exceeding 50 million a month. Something has to be done.
There's nothing wrong with borrowing.
It’s obvious the weakest link in our party are the national organizations, with DNC topping the list. Money obviously doesn’t mean everything, but they clearly need to start picking up the pace to avoid being completely blown out by the GOP counterparts.
After 2024 no one was gung ho about donating to the national party or any dem, we will be at a disadvantage for a while. Thankfully money doesn't have the impact like it used to
I will say that I have no intention of donating to the national party anytime soon, so...
Money has a lot of impact but can go directly to campaigns, etc.
Our leaders pissing all over the base on a semi-regular basis does not help.
Ken Martin has a different spending strategy than Harrison. He is incredibly efficient with using resources and uses the philosophy that an early dollar is worth 5+ late dollars. It may seem strange to people who haven't seen the miracle worker work his magic up close before. He of anyone, deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to running a political party apparatus.
And yet we did amazingly this year. Does Politico seriously think Dems are in disarray given the polling, results, national environment, no Trump on the ballot, Epstein, etc.?
Remember, it’s Politico. They will do anything and everything to get hits and clicks.
Nuff said.
Especially slagging the Democrats.
That’s all they got!
Politico Editor In-Chief:
“Ok guys, we know what we have to do. Democrats aren’t for sure going to win back the House and Senate so we can publish what we need to get more readers to our attention by talking about Democrats more and more, even if it’s negative headlines!”
Indeed.
The DNC is so broke and Democrats are KILLING it this year in winning elections.
Also, it’s Politico so there you go!
Air Force major general Sarah Zabel is running for Congress in ID-1, one of the most Republican districts in the country, as an independent.
Why not
Kind of amazing Walt Minnick won the aughts version of this seat in 2008.
Against Bill "that idiot is an absolute idiot" Sali.
Nothing to lose by running as an Independent in ID-01.
My uncle lives in Meridian but there’s also a bit more blue there than in the district at large. Boise is right next door.
Meridian is pretty conservative but in a pre-2016 suburban way
No doubt it is but compared to the rural areas, not as much.
Then again, Meridian is more conservative than Boise. Buying a house there is substantially less than say in the Bay Area.
I have been to both Boise and Meridian. They don’t exactly appeal the way major big cities in other states do. Still a lot of open space in ID.
poll yesterday in one of the Chicago area races I'm following: Daniel Biss and Kat Abughazaleh tied at 18 each, Laura Fine at 10 percent, no one else breaking out. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/11/20/il-09-democratic-primary-poll-shows-early-leaders-four-months-out-from-election-day
I believe that's the first poll where Abughazaleh is doing better than healthy-but-distant 2nd place. I wonder if she's gaining or if it's just polling noise.
Don't know for sure, but she's really raised her profile by taking part in the protests at Bridgeview. Lots of texts from Biss. Interesting to see if the field shrinks and the departing candidates support Biss.
Most especially, the federal indictment was a fundraising and name recognition jackpot for her.
Creating good trouble for our party is rewarded so far in primaries held since Trump won re-election.
Our voters are tending to be drawn more the people who are louder opposition and willing to do things others aren’t. Ras Baraka’s surprise primary showing in NJ after getting arrested at an ICE protest. Abughazaleh getting indicted by Trump’s administration and seeing her primary numbers surge.
Even Deja Foxx getting 20% of our voters despite a last minute mostly online campaign who has never even held office before and her opponent Grijalva being endorsed by both ends of our party (Bernie and national Dems) as well as her having a long elected career of service.
Once is an anomaly, twice is unusual, three times becomes a pattern. Now, obviously all of these candidates lost their races so far, so it’s not exactly a sweeping wave of discontent away from the normal Democrats, but if you look at it in terms of expectations, AZ-07 is completely debatable and I think Grijalva overperformed fwiw. For the other 2 races though, so far the candidate overperforming expectations is these kinds of Democrats.
Could mean something for 2026 primaries or could just say there’s not enough discontent from our voters to actually beat the expected type of candidates our voters usually gravitate towards. Something to watch moving forward though into the midterms.
Wild flurry of redistricting action on a Friday eve lol.
-TX panel denied the stay request, which moved up to SCOTUS and Alito accepted as circuit justice with a Monday at 5pm ET deadline for reply briefs (expected to move to the full Court for consideration)
-Three judge district panel in FL is moving forward on a racial gerrymandering trial for FL-26 (Mario Díaz-Balart) and three state house districts (but not four other state house districts)
-Three judge panel in CA disagreed with the parties on moving prelim injunction hearing from 12/3 to late Jan, but compromised with 12/15.
-SC state rep released a map to he'll intro directly going after SC-06 (Jim Clyburn) https://abcnews4.com/news/local/state-rep-paces-congressional-map-directly-challenges-district-long-held-by-clyburn-james-clyburn-ralph-norman-jordan-pace-south-carolina-redistricting
Also special election dates for NJ-11 (Mikie Sherrill, who resigned effective yesterday).
-Candidate filing 12/1
-Primary 2/5
-General 4/16
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/murphy-sets-february-5-primary-april-16-general-for-nj-11-special-election/