Leading Off
CA-Gov
Billionaire investor Tom Steyer on Wednesday became the latest Democrat to enter the race for California’s open governorship, a decision he says he made because “Sacramento politicians are afraid to change this system.”
“The richest people in America think that they earned everything themselves,” Steyer, a prominent environmentalist who spent $250 million of his own money on an unsuccessful bid for president in 2020, says in his launch video. “Bullshit, man.”
Steyer’s kickoff came a month after he drew attention—not all of it positive—by donating $12 million to support the successful effort to pass a new congressional map.
That campaign included a spot in which the soon-to-be-candidate told viewers that “the Democratic Party were furious at me” for calling for Donald Trump’s impeachment early in his first term, adding that a vote for Proposition 50 was necessary because “Democrats can’t keep playing by the old rules.”
Steyer’s intraparty critics, however, argued that his spending spree was mainly intended to raise his name recognition rather than aid the effort to counter Trump’s push for red states to implement new gerrymanders. And the feuding didn’t end even after it became clear voters were going to overwhelmingly approve Proposition 50 on Nov. 4.
Just a day before the election, Steyer’s team circulated a memo crediting him for helping “push Prop 50 over the finish line.” Politico, though, reported that research from the “yes” side found that, of 13 pro-Proposition 50 ads tested, respondents ranked the two commercials Steyer put out as the least persuasive.
“Their ads were so ineffective Steyer should demand his money back,” said an unidentified advisor for termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, whom Steyer is now running to succeed.
But Steyer, whose only prior run for office was his campaign for the White House, believes he can perform well next year by positioning himself as an outsider who can solve the problems that Newsom hasn’t fixed.
“Californians deserve a life they can afford,” the new candidate says in his announcement video. “But the Californians who make this state run are being run over by the cost of living.”
Steyer, though, is unlikely to be the last Democrat—or even the last 2020 presidential aspirant—to join the race. While Rep. Eric Swalwell has not confirmed he’ll run, Politico wrote Monday that his entry “looks inevitable.”
The Democratic lineup in the June 2 top-two primary already includes former Rep. Katie Porter, who has led all her intraparty rivals in every available poll.
The field also includes other Democratic notables like former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former state Comptroller Betty Yee. The two main Republican hopefuls are Steve Hilton, who previously worked as a Fox News host, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
The Downballot Podcast
Shock TX ruling dashes GOP gerrymander
A federal court issued a shock ruling this week barring Texas from using its brand-new GOP gerrymander, but what does it all mean? We explore every nook and cranny of this stunning development on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, including why Republicans walked into a trap they set for themselves and what might happen on appeal.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also chat with Patrick Brown, a veteran campaign operative and partner at Novel Strategies who wants Democratic candidates to rethink how they go about communicating with voters. Advocating for a holistic, “voter-centric” approach, Brown explains why it’s critical for campaigns to understand exactly how their target audience consumes media and engage accordingly. He also emphasizes the importance of “building an interesting place to be” for candidates eager to tap into the world of influencers.
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Senate
TX-Sen
Ragnar Research (R):
John Cornyn (R-inc): 47, Colin Allred (D): 40.
Cornyn (R-inc): 46, James Talarico (D): 40.
Allred (D): 44, Ken Paxton (R): 43.
Paxton (R): 44, Talarico (D): 44.
Ragnar did not identify a client for this poll, though it previously conducted a survey for a pro-Cornyn group in September. Its new poll did not mention Republican Wesley Hunt.
Governors
NM-Gov
Wealthy businessman Duke Rodriguez has said he’s preparing to launch a bid for the Republican nomination for governor of New Mexico later this month, but is he even eligible to run in the first place?
Columnist Milan Simonich writes in the Santa Fe New Mexican that records from neighboring Arizona show that Rodriguez voted in that state for more than two decades, including as recently as 2024. Rodriguez, by contrast, only registered to vote in New Mexico in January and cast his first ballot in this month’s local elections in Albuquerque.
That’s potentially a disqualifying problem because the state’s constitution requires that its governor “shall have resided continuously in New Mexico for five years next preceding his election.”
Rodriguez, who initially insisted to Simonich that he’d never voted in Arizona, argued he’s allowed to run to replace termed-out Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham as governor of New Mexico because he’s owned a home in Albuquerque since 1979. Even if he’s right, though, Simonich believes that voters in the Land of Enchantment could have a major issue with Rodriguez’s tenuous ties to the state he wants to lead.
House
CA-11
Former San Francisco Mayor London Breed said Wednesday that she was endorsing state Sen. Scott Wiener’s campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi rather than entering the race for California’s heavily Democratic 11th District.
CA-48
Attorney Anuj Dixit said Wednesday that he was ending his campaign for California’s 48th District because the new congressional map “has geographically reshaped the dynamics of this race.”
Several of Dixit’s fellow Democrats are challenging Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in what’s now a light blue constituency. Issa himself still has yet to announce whether he’ll defend the 48th or campaign for the conservative 40th District instead.
FL-19
Federal authorities have ended their investigation into Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno over money laundering allegations, prosecutors said in a letter to Marceno’s attorney. Marceno, a Republican who continues to claim without evidence that the probe was “politically motivated,” was not charged with wrongdoing.
A consultant for the sheriff tells Florida Politics that this development makes it more likely he’ll enter the Republican primary for the safely red 19th District, which Rep. Byron Donalds is giving up to run for governor.
“These attacks against Marceno were politically motivated, and he is going to come out of this stronger than ever. He is like Mike Tyson as a rookie,” his team said. “We have until March to decide.” The deadline for candidates to file for federal office is April 24.
GA-14
Physician John Cowan is considering seeking a rematch against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene following her public break with Donald Trump, columnist Bill Torpy writes in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
While there are no quotes from Cowan confirming that he’s looking to challenge Greene in next year’s Republican primary, he did not hide how little he thinks of the congresswoman’s call “to end the toxic fighting in politics.”
“I pray and hope she has seen the light. But she has left a heap of destruction in her path,” Cowan told Torpy. “If you’re truly repentant, then you’d empty your campaign funds and resign from your job.”
Cowan was one of Greene’s first political targets when they faced off in the 2020 primary runoff for Georgia’s safely red 14th District. Greene, who had already amassed a long litany of racist, Islamophobic, and antisemitic rantings, labeled her opponent a “globalist Never Trumper who wants even more money for the Chinese-controlled WHO.”
Cowan tried to position himself as an alternative to his already infamous opponent with the slogan, “All of the conservative, none of the embarrassment,” but it was no use. Greene prevailed 57-43 and immediately became one of the most prominent Republicans in the country, even before her election to Congress later that fall.
OR-05
Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair announced Tuesday that she would seek the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Rep. Janelle Bynum, who narrowly flipped Oregon’s 5th District last year following an expensive battle.
Adair was first elected in 2018 after defeating a more moderate incumbent in the GOP primary, and the Oregon Capital Chronicle writes that she’s been an ardent Donald Trump backer. Adair, who is 74, would be one of the oldest freshmen to enter Congress.
Adair joins a GOP primary that already includes Jonathan Lockwood, who previously worked as a spokesperson for the state legislature’s GOP minority.
But while Lockwood generated plenty of attention in his previous role—a 2018 Willamette Week piece about what would turn out to be a temporary move to Texas was titled, “Professional Republican Bomb-Thrower Jonathan Lockwood Takes Some Parting Shots at Oregon”—his campaign launch back on the West Coast last month attracted comparatively little notice.
Last year, Bynum unseated Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer 48-45 as Kamala Harris carried the 5th District by a wider 53-44 spread, according to calculations by The Downballot. Chavez-DeRemer, whom Bynum previously beat in 2016 and 2018 races for the state House, became Trump’s secretary of labor not long after her loss.
VA-01
Navy veteran Jason Knapp on Wednesday entered the busy Democratic primary to oppose Rep. Rob Wittman, a Virginia Republican who’s never struggled to win reelection but has emerged as a top Democratic target this cycle.
“As a Navy fighter pilot flying combat missions over Iraq, as an Executive Officer at NATO working with twenty-eight allied nations, and as a Defense Fellow in Congress, I learned that trust is everything—and that America keeps its promise when leaders put people first,” Knapp said in a statement.
“After years of being ignored by career politicians backed by corporate special interests, working families and veterans deserve better,” he added.
Knapp joins several other Democrats in the June 16 primary to flip the 1st District, a longtime GOP stronghold that includes the western Chesapeake Bay and suburbs to the north and west of Richmond. Only two of his intraparty rivals, though, ended the last fundraising quarter with six figures in their campaign accounts.
Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, who began running in early September, finished the month with almost $330,000 available, while activist Lisa Vedernikova Khanna had about $120,000 on hand.
Wittman, who first won his seat in a 2007 special election, had roughly $2.8 million banked to defend himself in what was shaping up to be his toughest reelection campaign even before Democrats began planning to redraw the state’s congressional map.
While Wittman decisively defeated Democrat Leslie Mehta 56-44 last year, his win came despite an unwelcome shift at the top of the ticket. According to calculations from The Downballot, the 1st District voted for Donald Trump 52-47 in November after supporting him 52-46 four years earlier, making it one of just 19 districts in the nation that moved to the left in 2024.
Republicans now have even more reasons to be worried about Wittman’s fate as they watched Abigail Spanberger’s landslide win in the race for governor sweep her fellow Democrats to victory across the state on Nov. 4. One of the beneficiaries of this wave was Mehta, who unseated a Republican incumbent in a closely watched race for the state House.
Mayors & County Leaders
Los Angeles, CA Mayor
Housing activist Rae Huang announced Sunday that she would challenge Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in next year’s officially nonpartisan election. Huang, who is an ordained Presbyterian minister and a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, is seeking office for the first time.
While the newcomer will face a challenging campaign to lead America’s second-largest city, her presence on the ballot could make it more difficult for Bass to secure the majority of the vote on June 2 that she would need to avoid a runoff in the fall.
Bass picked up her first major opponent last month when former investment banker Austin Beutner, a fellow Democrat who previously served as Los Angeles’ schools chief, launched his campaign.
The field could expand further still. Billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso, whom Bass defeated in 2022, is still deliberating whether he wants to seek a rematch or run for governor.
Other Races
FL Chief Financial Officer
Florida state Rep. Kevin Steele announced Tuesday that he would challenge Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed this summer, in the Aug. 18 Republican primary.
Steele’s decision sets off what will be a closely watched contest in which both candidates are hoping to win Donald Trump’s endorsement.
It may also be the only seriously contested statewide primary Florida Republicans hold in 2026. Rep. Byron Donalds is the heavy favorite to win the nomination for governor, while Attorney General James Uthmeier and Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson don’t have any major intraparty opposition in sight.
Steele, whom the Miami Herald describes as a “telecommunications and health care entrepreneur” whose net worth exceeds $150 million, kicked off his bid four months after DeSantis defied Trump by picking Ingoglia.
Trump had previously endorsed state Sen. Joe Gruters to become CFO, an unusual post that has many of the duties that would belong to a treasurer or comptroller in other states and also functions as Florida’s fire marshal. But DeSantis, who’s long had a terrible relationship with Gruters, instead chose Ingoglia in July to replace Jimmy Patronis, who had been elected to the U.S. House three months earlier.
A widely anticipated primary between Ingoglia and Gruters—which would have also been the latest proxy battle between Trump and DeSantis—fizzled out when Trump instead chose the state senator to become the new chair of the Republican National Committee. Observers, though, took note when MAGA’s master endorsed both Uthmeier and Simpson while saying nothing of Ingoglia.
Steele is hoping that silence will give him the opening he needs to campaign as the “America First” candidate. The lawmaker entered the race with an endorsement from Sen. Rick Scott, who, like seemingly every other prominent Florida Republican, is no fan of DeSantis.
Ingoglia’s team responded to his wealthy opponent’s entry by denouncing him for trying to “buy a seat on Florida’s Cabinet.”
The incumbent is also betting that his membership in that Cabinet will give him the chance to curry favor with Trump in a way that few other candidates can. Ingoglia and his colleagues voted in September to approve a deal that would allow Trump to build his presidential library at Miami-Dade College, and he filed a briefing Tuesday to support the plan in the face of ongoing legal challenges.
Peggy Flanagan picked up endorsements from Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley, Martin Heinrich, and Chris Van Hollen.
NY-7:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/nyregion/nydia-velazquez-retire.html
Nydia Velazquez is retiring.