Morning Digest: GOP launches special election rescue mission in deep-red district
And Democrats turn up the heat on the Epstein files
Leading Off
TN-07
Republicans once again find themselves launching a last-minute rescue mission ahead of a special election that they should never have had to sweat in the first place.
Third-party groups are about to deploy serious sums to boost Republican Matt Van Epps against Democrat Aftyn Behn ahead of the Dec. 2 election for Tennessee’s dark-red 7th District, Axios reports—a showdown the publication says is “scaring” the GOP.
To assuage those worries, Alex Isenstadt writes that a group called Conservatives for American Excellence will spend $600,000 on commercials for the remaining two weeks of the race, while the hardline Club for Growth will also launch a “six-figure” ad buy.
The news came the same day that Behn’s allies launched a $300,000 campaign arguing that putting Van Epps in Congress would prevent the public from ever knowing the truth about convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
“The Epstein files are locked away, Matt Van Epps will keep ‘em that way,” a country singer croons in a new commercial for an organization called Your Community PAC. “Just a hedge fund puppet for the billionaire elite.”
An animation of Van Epps held on strings accompanies those lyrics as an unseen puppeteer makes him throw away the key to the safe containing the files. The song continues, “Bankrolled by their Wall Street cash, he’ll give ‘em tax cuts in a flash. Supports a plan that would cut our social security.”
Behn, who is not mentioned in the ad, began airing her own TV ads earlier this month that hit similar themes, albeit starring a mechanical bull rather than a country music singer.
Van Epps, for his part, launched a joint commercial with support from the NRCC in which he touted his military background and pledged to “bring down prices” and “lower health care costs for working families.” The Republican nominee, who is a former member of Gov. Bill Lee’s Cabinet, did not mention Behn.
However, viewers could soon see some more aggressive, Trump-like messaging. Teddy Schleifer of the New York Times flagged an FEC filing revealing that MAGA Inc., a deep-pocketed super PAC run by Donald Trump’s allies, has spent $15,000 on phone calls to voters.
While that’s still a pittance for a congressional race, the group’s foray could presage greater involvement if Trumpworld feels it needs to help Van Epps avoid embarrassment.
The 7th District favored Trump 60-38 last year, according to calculations by The Downballot. Rep. Mark Green also won reelection by that same margin, but months later, he resigned to join the private sector.
However, when Republicans gerrymandered the state’s congressional map in 2022, they added a slice of Nashville to the 7th District, giving Behn a base of voters who may be especially motivated to show up for an otherwise lower-turnout election that will take place the week after Thanksgiving.
But while Democrats are hoping to turn in a solid showing on tough turf, they agree that Van Epps will be difficult to defeat.
Last month, Behn released an internal poll from Workbench Strategy showing her opponent ahead 51-41, while Your Community PAC publicized its own survey from Impact Research giving Van Epps a similar 52-44 advantage. (There’s been no public data from Republicans or nonpartisan pollsters.)
Both surveys, though, argued that Behn has a path to an upset. Impact in particular was explicit in arguing that Democrats should seek to elevate the profile of independent candidate Jon Thorp, an Army veteran who originally launched a bid as a Republican before dropping out of the primary to run without a party label.
None of the four unaffiliated candidates on the general election ballot has shown up in any TV ads yet. However, Isenstadt notes that another organization has sent out mailers promoting Thorp, saying that he, unlike Van Epps, wants the Epstein files released.
Overall, Democrats have run well ahead of last year’s presidential race in special elections so far this year, but they’d need an especially strong showing to overcome Trump’s 22-point margin of victory last year in the 7th District. According to a tally maintained by The Downballot, Democrats are outperforming by an average of 13 points across 59 special congressional and legislative elections so far in 2025.
Behn, though, argues that, even if she falls short, a good performance on Dec. 2 could have lessons for Democrats going into the midterm elections.
“If we are able to get close or flip it, I think it is a testament to how the Democratic playbook will be rewritten in the South, which is one of running on affordability issues and not responding to the cultural issues that the right is weaponizing,” she told NOTUS.
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot. Putting together the Morning Digest each day takes a massive amount of work—and resources! If you’re able to help sustain us by upgrading to a paid subscription, we’d be deeply grateful if you’d consider doing so.
Redistricting Roundup
IN Redistricting
Indiana Senate Pro Tem Rodric Bray announced Friday that his chamber would not reconvene in December to re-gerrymander the state’s congressional map because “there are not enough votes to move that idea forward.”
Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Braun, however, still are not giving up on their months-long pressure campaign to convince legislators to pass a map that could give the GOP, which currently holds seven of the state’s nine congressional districts, control of every seat.
Politico reports that Trump’s subordinates are “summoning Indiana lawmakers” to meet with him in the White House as early as this week. But Bray, who was part of the delegation that gathered with Trump in August, probably won’t be getting another invite.
“BREAKING: Sen Rodric Bray announces retirement,” tweeted Chris LaCivita, who co-managed Trump’s 2024 effort. Bray, like Trump, won a new four-year term last year and is not up for reelection again until 2028.
Braun, meanwhile, responded to Bray’s statement by once again calling for senators to “do the right thing and show up to vote for fair maps.”
The governor, though, may be just about out of time and options to ram a new map through in the Hoosier State, where candidate filing opens on Jan. 7 and closes Feb. 6. Politico’s Adam Wren reacted to Bray’s statement Friday by tweeting, “Redistricting all but dead in Indiana.”
Senate
TX-Sen
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke on Saturday told the Texas Tribune Festival he is unlikely to run for the Senate next year. O’Rourke instead praised Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a fellow Democrat who is still considering a Senate campaign, saying, “You know you’re doing the right thing when Donald Trump is shit talking to you on a daily basis, right?”
Governors
AK-Gov
State Sen. Shelley Hughes said Thursday that she was resigning from office to focus on her campaign to succeed termed-out Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a fellow Republican. Hughes is one of more than a dozen candidates competing in Alaska’s top-four primary on Aug. 18.
AZ-Gov
Rep. Andy Biggs posts a huge 50-17 lead over wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson as fellow Rep. David Schweikert lags in third with just 8%, Emerson College finds in its new poll of the Aug. 4 Republican primary for governor of Arizona.
This is the first survey from a nonpartisan pollster conducted after Schweikert announced his campaign to take on Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs at the end of September. A late October poll from the GOP firm Grayhouse, though, had Biggs beating Taylor Robson 43-19 as Schweikert took a mere 2%; the pollster did not identify a client.
Schweikert, who is giving up his swingy 1st District to run statewide, argues he’d be the GOP’s strongest nominee, but Emerson offers a different take. While the school shows Hobbs edging out Biggs and Taylor Robson 44-43 and 43-42, respectively, she enjoys a slightly wider 44-39 advantage over Schweikert.
The congressman, however, is hoping to improve his standing with an introductory ad campaign touting him as a loyal conservative who will “shake things up.”
“My birth mother was an unwed teen. My adopted parents, loving Christians,” he tells the audience. “Incredibly, I went on to coauthor President Trump’s historic tax cuts.” (Schweikert is the only one of the three major GOP candidates who doesn’t have Donald Trump’s endorsement.)
It’s not clear yet, though, how much money Schweikert is spending this far from the primary. AdImpact reported Wednesday that it had tracked just $23,000 from the congressman, though the size of the buy may have risen since then.
CA-Gov
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell will soon decide whether he’ll make a late entry into the packed race for governor of California, both MSNBC and Punchbowl News report. There’s no consensus, though, on just how likely the congressman is to jump in.
MSNBC writes that, according to two unnamed sources, “Swalwell has all but decided” to run to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom. One person adds that his launch could come as soon as this week.
Punchbowl, by contrast, says its own source believes Swalwell “is expected to make a decision within the coming weeks.”
Swalwell did not provide a response to either outlet, though his team didn’t dismiss the idea of a statewide campaign last month when Politico first reported about the speculation surrounding him.
A poll conducted in October for Swalwell’s allies, however, finds he’d begin in fourth place in the June top-two primary for governor.
An EMC Research survey first shared by Punchbowl shows Republican Steve Hilton, who previously worked as a Fox News host, out in front with 20%. Former Rep. Katie Porter, who has spent months as the Democratic frontrunner, edges out Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the second notable Republican in the race, by a 16-14 for the all-important second spot in a general election.
Swalwell himself is just behind with 11% as two other Democrats, former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, respectively take 9% and 5%. Five others take 3% or less apiece.
OH-Gov
Former Rep. Tim Ryan is contacting would-be supporters to enlist their backing for his potential campaign for the Democratic nomination, David Skolnick writes in the Tribune Chronicle. Ryan has not committed to running for governor of Ohio in the month and a half since he blew past his self-imposed Sept. 30 deadline to decide, though Skolnick believes that “all signs point to” him getting in.
Ryan would join former state health director Amy Acton, who began running in January, in the May 5 primary. The winner will almost certainly face wealthy businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who cleared the Republican field months ago.
WI-Gov
Nonprofit head Joel Brennan told Wisconsin’s Midday News on Thursday that he’ll decide “in the next few weeks” whether he’ll join the Democratic primary for governor. Brennan served as Gov. Tony Evers’ secretary of administration until he stepped down in 2021 to lead the Greater Milwaukee Committee, a prominent local civic organization.
House
GA-14
Donald Trump announced to the world on Friday evening that he was “withdrawing my support and Endorsement of ‘Congresswoman’ Marjorie Taylor Greene” and would back a primary challenger “if the right person runs.”
Greene, who has spent her three terms in office as one of the most prominent far-right voices in Congress, responded to the public break with her now-former ally by tweeting out what she claimed were text messages she’d sent him and his team earlier that day about the Epstein files.
“Apparently this is what sent him over the edge,” wrote Greene, who is one of a handful of House Republicans who signed onto the discharge petition to force a vote on a bill mandating the release of files related to the federal government’s investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. “And of course he’s coming after me hard to make an example to scare all the other Republicans before next weeks vote to release the Epstein files.”
Greene, who has spent the last several months criticizing her party’s leadership on other topics like healthcare and its strategy during the government shutdown, is up for reelection next year in Georgia’s 14th District, a safely red seat in the northwestern part of the state.
Candidate filing closes March 6 for the May 19 primary. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff on June 16.
MI-11
Anil Kumar, a urologist who is an elected member of the Wayne State University Board of Governors, announced Friday that he would seek the Democratic nod for Michigan’s open and reliably blue 11th District in the northwestern Detroit suburbs.
Kumar unsuccessfully campaigned twice for the 11th back when it was Republican-friendly turf under the previous map. He waged a third run for Congress last year, when he self-funded nearly $1 million for his bid to flip the swingy 10th District, but that effort went poorly. Kumar’s campaign came to an early end after election officials determined that he lacked enough valid signatures to make the primary ballot.
Kumar joins state Sen. Jeremy Moss and businessman Don Ufford in the Aug. 4 primary. The winner will be favored to succeed Rep. Haley Stevens, who is running for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat. The 11th district favored Kamala Harris 57-41.
NJ-11
Progressive activist Analilia Mejia is considering entering the Democratic primary for the upcoming special election to replace Gov.-elect Mikie Sherill in New Jersey’s 11th District, the New Jersey Globe and Insider NJ both report.
Mejia is a former executive director of the New Jersey Working Families Party, a labor-backed party that usually supports progressive Democrats rather than running its own candidates. She later served as Bernie Sanders’ national political director during his 2020 presidential campaign and in the Biden administration’s Department of Labor.
NJ-12
Plainfield Mayor Adrian Mapp is thinking about running to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a fellow Democrat, Insider NJ reports. The New Jersey Globe separately reports that former Biden administration official Jay Vaingankar is thinking about waging his own campaign for the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s safely blue 12th District.
NY-21
Businessman Josh Parker said Friday that he will not run to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik, a fellow Republican who is giving up New York’s 21st District to campaign for governor.
SC-01
Beaufort County Councilman Logan Cunningham said last week that he was entering the Republican primary for South Carolina’s open 1st District. Cunningham waged a little-noticed campaign for the last version of this seat in 2019, but he dropped out ahead of a successful bid for his current office.
Cunningham is hoping to succeed Rep. Nancy Mace, a Republican whose campaign for governor is making news for all the wrong reasons.
TX-19
State Rep. Carl Tepper said Thursday that he’d seek reelection rather than run to replace retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington, a fellow Republican who is retiring from Texas’ conservative 19th District.
TX-31
Republican Rep. John Carter, 84, announced Wednesday that he would seek a 13th term representing Texas’ 31st District. Carter is the second-oldest member of the House GOP caucus after 87-year-old Hal Rogers of Kentucky, who has also indicated he plans to run again.
Donald Trump would have carried the revamped version of Carter’s constituency, which is north of Austin, by a 60-38 margin, which is similar to his showing under the old lines.
TX-35, TX-28
Navy veteran Jay Furman said Wednesday that he’d run for Texas’ open 35th District, a constituency Republican map makers made considerably more conservative, rather than continue his rematch against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in the 28th District.
Furman raised little money during either his 2024 campaign against Cuellar or his return engagement, and he faces several better-established Republicans in the 35th. He may struggle again to stand out: Brad Johnson of the conservative The Texan News wrote Friday that Furman’s announcement about his switch “went mostly unnoticed a couple days ago.”
Attorneys General
TX-AG, TX-Sen
Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro told the Texas Tribune Festival on Friday that he hadn’t made a “final decision” about whether to seek statewide office and didn’t specify which one he might still pursue. The candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8.
Mayors & County Leaders
Jersey City, NJ Mayor
Jersey City Council member James Solomon has publicized an internal poll giving him a huge 58-29 lead over former Gov. Jim McGreavy, a fellow Democrat, in their Dec. 2 runoff.
This survey from Impact Research is the first anyone has released since Solomon outpaced McGreavy, who resigned as governor in spectacular fashion in 2004, by a 29-25 margin in the first round on Nov. 4.
Solomon has since received endorsements from Bill O’Dea and Mussab Ali, who took third and fourth place with 21% and 18%, respectively. He’s also earned the backing of Sen. Andy Kim and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka.
McGreavy, by contrast, has reportedly lost one of his most prominent allies in the days since he came in second. The New Jersey Globe writes that Hudson County Executive Craig Guy, who also chairs the local Democratic Party, has decided to be neutral in the runoff despite supporting McGreavy through the first round. The story did not say why Guy, who backed the ex-governor two years ago, is no longer in his corner.
McGreavy, though, retains one powerful local ally. Brian Stack, who serves as both a state Senator and as mayor of Union City, has long been one of the most influential Democratic leaders in New Jersey, and Politico credits him for Gov.-elect Mikie Sherill’s strong showing in heavily Latino communities that swung to Donald Trump the previous year.
Stack’s ability to get out the vote will be tested again next month in a contest that will have considerably smaller turnout now that the high-profile race for governor is over.
Poll Pile
MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA: Mallory McMorrow (D): 43, Mike Rogers (R): 42; Haley Stevens (D): 44, Mike Rogers (R): 42.
FL-Gov (R): Victory Insights (R): Byron Donalds: 45, Paul Renner: 3, Jay Collins: 1, James Fishback: 1. Pollster says this survey was “[n]ot commissioned by any candidate or committee.” Only Donalds and Renner were running when this poll was conducted.
MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA: John James (R): 33, Jocelyn Benson (D): 32, Mike Duggan (I): 20.
Correction: This Digest incorrectly identified Joel Brennan as Wisconsin’s former secretary of agriculture. Brennan served as secretary of administration.
If Democrat Aftyn Behn pulls off a miracle and actually beats Republican candidate Matt Van Epps in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional district, it will be yet another political earthquake – and very high on the Richter Scale! I’ll make sure to have plenty of nachos on hand on 2 December, which is Election Night for this special election.
Ecuador:
After the disaster of the Chilean election, some good news from yesterday's Ecuadorian elections. The country soundly rejected referendums designed as power grabs by increasingly right wing President Noboa, including permitting foreign military bases in the country, shrinking the size of the legislature, and rewriting rhe country's progressive constitution.