Rep. Ilhan Omar and state Sen. Omar Fateh, candidate for mayor of Minneapolis (credit: Omar Fateh X)
Leading Off
MN-05 & Minneapolis, MN Mayor
As Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey fights to earn a third term next week, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, who is one of Frey’s most prominent critics and has backed his top rival, is set to pick up an intraparty challenge of her own.
Latonya Reeves, a labor leader and member of the Democratic National Committee, is promoting an “exciting announcement” set for Nov. 9, and she’s not pushing back on speculation that she plans to run against Omar.
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Reeves instead told the Minnesota Star Tribune that she’s “not ready to share details ahead of the event.” The paper’s sources, though, believe that she’s about to launch a campaign to deny renomination to Omar, who is one of the most prominent progressives in Congress, in the safely blue 5th District.
First, though, Omar is hoping to help defeat Frey, a fellow Democrat, in the city’s ranked-choice general election on Nov. 4. The congresswoman is supporting state Sen. Omar Fateh, a democratic socialist who is challenging Frey from the left.
Fateh has taken advantage of local election rules to form a “slate for change” with two other notable candidates, pastor DeWayne Davis and attorney Jazz Hampton. The trio announced last month that they would encourage their supporters to “rank all three.”
Eleven other names are on the ballot, but none have generated much attention.
Fateh, who would be the first Muslim to lead this heavily Democratic city, is hoping that the results of Minneapolis’ municipal elections in 2023 augur a strong night for him. That year, the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America and its allies secured seven of the 13 seats on the City Council despite a huge financial disadvantage, forming a new majority that has spent the ensuing two years feuding with Frey.
Omar, who represents the entire city in the House, has amplified Fateh’s call to unseat Frey, who was first elected mayor in 2017.
“For many years, we have seen the concerns my neighbors and I are facing—about public safety, housing, affordability and so much more—be met with the same tired solutions or, frankly, none at all,” the congresswoman said earlier this month. “I have seen how dedicated [Fateh] is to our city and enacting the transformative change Minneapolis residents are demanding.”
But Frey, who has the support of Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, argues that Fateh would bring the wrong kind of change to the state’s largest city.
“My primary challenger has made very clear and has said that he wants to defund the police, and he will not clear encampments,” the mayor told the Star Tribune last month. “The path that I support now and have always supported is to hire more police officers, which we need. We have fewer officers per capita than virtually any major city in the country.”
Fateh, for his part, once called for replacing the local police department with a new Department of Public Safety, a plan that city voters decisively rejected in 2021 as they reelected Frey. Fateh, however, said during a recent debate that it was “a flat-out lie” that he’d ever wanted to defund the police.
The lawmaker, though, has urged “bold and transformative approaches to public safety will end the cycle of the Minneapolis Police Department’s violence and brutality that has held our city captive for so many years.”
Fateh has also emphasized his support for rent stabilization, an idea Frey argues “has not worked in any city that’s ever been tried.” The legislator has further stood out from Frey and the rest of the field by calling for a $20 minimum wage.
There have been no recent polls of this contest, though new fundraising reports show Frey maintaining a decisive advantage over Fatah.
Omar, meanwhile, is readying for what could be another expensive and competitive primary battle next August to keep the House seat she first won in 2018.
In 2022, the congresswoman prevailed by a surprisingly tight 50-48 spread against Don Samuels, a former Minneapolis City Council member who had Frey’s endorsement. Omar won a rematch last year by a stronger 56-43 margin, but that result wasn’t enough to quiet chatter that she could be vulnerable again in 2026.
Reeves began talking about opposing the incumbent this summer, and while she didn’t offer any direct criticisms of the outspoken Omar, she indicated that she’d pursue a different approach. Reeves, who told Axios she would “tone down the rhetoric,” added, “There’s a lot of political angst in the community right now with Trump, and I want to be a voice for the community and focus on CD5 issues.”
Omar responded to Reeves’ potential challenge by publicizing endorsements from Walz, Klobuchar, and two other prominent Minnesota Democrats: Sen. Tina Smith and Attorney General Keith Ellison, who preceded Omar in the House. That show of support, though, doesn’t appear to have deterred Reeves from deciding to take on the incumbent.
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The 14 Democratic members of Illinois’ congressional delegation released a statement via the DCCC on Tuesday expressing their support for a new congressional map, but leaders in the legislature still sound unenthusiastic.
The new stance from House Democrats represents a turnaround from just last month, when three different members all expressed their doubts to Politico, including Reps. Jonathan Jackson, Lauren Underwood, and Robin Kelly, who is running for Senate.
“I don’t think redistricting is happening in Illinois,” Underwood said at the time.
As Politico noted, though, all three met with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in Chicago on Monday to discuss a remap. All emerged supportive of new districts, with Kelly saying, “You’ve got to fight fire with fire.”
One prominent Democrat remains unsympathetic, however.
“We understand what’s at stake, but if Black representation is going to be diluted, that’s not a map I can support,” state Sen. Willie Preston, who heads the Senate Black Caucus and is running for Kelly’s open House seat, told Politico.
A new map is reportedly circulating among Illinois Democrats, though it does not appear to be public yet, so it’s not possible to confirm whether Preston’s concerns have been addressed.
VA Redistricting
Virginia Democrats have unveiled a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow the legislature to redraw the state’s congressional lines if any other state engages in mid-decade redistricting.
Lawmakers are likely to vote on the proposal in a special session this week, just ahead of the state’s Nov. 4 elections. The amendment would then need to be approved in a second vote after the legislature reconvenes in January before it could be sent to voters, most likely in April.
Governors
IA-Gov
Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra finally confirmed on Tuesday that he would enter the race for Iowa’s open governorship, though his decision to all but announce his campaign back in May made his kickoff an anticlimactic affair.
Feenstra, who rose to prominence in 2020 when he successfully challenged far-right Rep. Steve King for renomination, is the most high-profile GOP candidate running to succeed Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not seeking reelection.
Feenstra’s opposition in the June primary includes Adam Steen, a former member of Reynolds’ administration; state Rep. Eddie Andrews; and former state Rep. Brad Sherman. State Sen. Mike Bousselot, who formed an exploratory committee in April, is another potential candidate.
State Auditor Rob Sand is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nod over political operative Julie Stauch.
MI-Gov
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds a huge financial advantage over her opponents in August’s Democratic primary for governor, new disclosures compiled by Bridge Michigan show.
Benson took in $1.2 million from July 21 to Oct. 20 and ended the period with almost $3 million in the bank. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, by contrast, each had just under $400,000 available in their campaign coffers as they seek to succeed termed-out Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a fellow Democrat.
The money race isn’t nearly so lopsided on the GOP side.
Republican Rep. John James raised $1.4 million, which was considerably more than what any of his intraparty opponents brought in from donors. Former Attorney General Mike Cox, though, finished with a $3.8 million to $2.3 million cash on hand advantage over James, thanks almost entirely to self-funding.
But James, the frontrunner to capture the Republican nod, has one other important asset. His allied super PAC had $5.1 million stockpiled, with much of its funding coming from the wealthy DeVos family.
State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, meanwhile, was just behind James with $2.1 million banked. Nesbitt, however, raised only a bit more than $420,000 over the last three months—a big comedown from the $2.3 million he took in during his first six months in the race.
Pastor Ralph Rebandt, meanwhile, had almost $900,000 available in his longshot campaign for the GOP nod, with most of that also coming from the candidate. Bringing up the rear, former state House Speaker Tom Leonard had a little more than $700,000 to spend.
Finally, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a Democrat-turned-independent, raised another $1.2 million during the most recent period and has banked $2.5 million.
SC-Gov
Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson announced Tuesday that he would run for governor of South Carolina, an office his party last won in 1998.
“I absolutely do not view myself as a sacrificial lamb,” Johnson, who would be the Palmetto State’s first Black governor, told The State. “This state has never seen a candidate like myself run for statewide office, in terms of for the governor position. And I’m something different.”
After growing up in poverty in Los Angeles, the 6’7” Johnson became a basketball standout at the College of Charleston and played professionally overseas for several years. He won a seat in the state legislature in 2020 by ousting a veteran lawmaker in the Democratic primary in a 76-24 landslide.
Johnson, who formed an exploratory committee in June, joins wealthy attorney Mullins McLeod in next year’s primary. McLeod, who launched his own campaign in August just a few months after he was arrested for allegedly screaming while wearing only his underwear and shoes on a downtown street corner, has self-funded over $1 million.
WI-Gov
An organization created by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has released a new survey showing Barnes beating two potential Republican rivals in hypothetical previews of next year’s race for Wisconsin’s open governorship.
The poll, conducted by Impact Research in early October for The Long Run PAC, finds Barnes up 50-44 on Rep. Tom Tiffany and 51-44 against businessman Tim Michels. Michels, who was the GOP’s 2022 nominee, has not yet announced if he’ll run again, while Tiffany launched his campaign last month.
The pollster’s memo did not include data on any other Democratic candidates or the Democratic primary. Barnes is still considering the race, saying earlier this month that he’d decide “very soon.”
House
IN-01
Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green said Tuesday that she would seek a rematch with Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan, an announcement that came just weeks after she resigned from Indiana Gov. Mike Braun’s cabinet amid an ethics investigation.
Green lost a high-profile challenge to Mrvan 53-47 in 2022, but she seemed to land on her feet after Braun, a fellow Republican, named her as public safety secretary following his election last year.
The Indiana Capitol Chronicle, though, reported last month that Green was the subject of an internal investigation for, among other things, allegedly using state resources and staff for personal and political tasks and engaging in the “uninvited touching of employees.”
Green told the site at the time she was the victim of “baseless allegations.” She added, “I am pursuing legal options to address this, and believe this leak shows the reality of the environment that led me to resign.”
Green launched her second campaign to flip the 1st District just days after Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz entered the race, and the field may expand again. Lake County Republican Party Chairman Randy Niemeyer, who lost to Mrvan 53-45 last year, now tells the Chicago Tribune he’ll “possibly” try again.
More Republicans might be incentivized to run if Braun and Donald Trump successfully pressure state legislators to pass a new gerrymander, though their plan still has to overcome considerable intraparty resistance. Kamala Harris narrowly carried the current incarnation of this northwestern Indiana constituency 49.4 to 49.0.
MA-06
Democrat Rick Jakious said Monday that he’s entering the busy race to replace Rep. Seth Moulton, his longtime boss. Jakious, who most recently served as Moulton’s chief of staff, launched his campaign following the incumbent’s recent announcement that he would run for the Senate.
Former Biden administration official Dan Koh, meanwhile, rolled out an endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday. Harris is the most prominent name to take sides in the quickly developing primary for the safely blue 6th District.
MN-02
Businessman Mike Norton tells the Minnesota Star Tribune that he’s decided not to enter the Democratic primary for Minnesota’s open 2nd District.
PA-03
Pablo McConnie-Saad, who served in the U.S. Treasury Department during the Biden administration, joined the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s open 3rd District on Tuesday.
McConnie-Saad, a first-time candidate, used his launch video to contrast himself with one of his opponents: state Sen. Sharif Street, who hails from a prominent Philadelphia political family.
After recounting his family’s financial struggles while he was growing up, the new entrant tells the audience, “And nothing has changed since then. Rents are still too high, and there still aren’t enough good jobs, and another Street is running for office.”
McConnie-Saad is one of several candidates competing to succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans in one of the bluest House seats in the nation. Evans is supporting physician Ala Stanford in the May 19 primary.
Ballot Measures
TX Ballot
Next week, Texans will vote on 17 constitutional amendments that were all referred to the ballot by the state’s GOP-dominated legislature, but one in particular stands out.
Proposition 12 would amend the state constitution to allow Republican Gov. Greg Abbott to appoint a majority of the members to the State Commission on Judicial Conduct, a body that has a great deal of influence over the state’s judges.
“The governor would unilaterally control that commission now,” attorney Jesse Hoffman explained to the Houston Chronicle earlier this month. “If any judge disrupts the governor, or anybody who the governor is willing to take marching orders from, he would now have a powerful tool to get that judge back in line or get him or her out of the way entirely.”
FL-Gov: UNF: Byron Donalds (R): 45, David Jolly (D): 34; Donalds (R): 45, Jerry Demings (D): 33; Casey DeSantis (R): 47, Jolly (D): 34; DeSantis (R): 47, Demings (D): 36. (Donalds and Jolly are running while Demings and DeSantis are considering.)
NY-Gov: Manhattan Institute (conservative): Elise Stefanik (R): 43, Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 42, someone else: 9; Stefanik (R): 43, Antonio Delgado (D): 37, someone else: 8. (Stefanik has not yet announced a campaign.)
OK-Gov (R): co/efficient (R): Charles McCall: 31, Gentner Drummond: 20, Chip Keating: 5. Runoff: McCall: 42, Drummond: 25. The firm says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.”
FL-AG: UNF: James Uthmeier (R-inc): 45, Jose Javier Rodriguez (D): 36.
New York, NY Mayor: Suffolk University: Zohran Mamdani (D): 44, Andrew Cuomo (I): 34, Curtis Sliwa (R): 11. (Sept.: Mamdani: 45, Cuomo: 25, Sliwa: 9, Eric Adams: 8. The earlier poll was conducted before Adams dropped out.)
New York, NY Mayor: Manhattan Institute: Mamdani (D): 43, Cuomo (I): 28, Sliwa (R): 19.
Correction: We incorrectly described an organization created by former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as a super PAC. The Long Run is a traditional PAC.
#earlyvote numbers for three states where I have party registration, percentage point change in Dem party registration among early voters, same day before the election comparison to 2024 general:
FWIW:
#earlyvote numbers for three states where I have party registration, percentage point change in Dem party registration among early voters, same day before the election comparison to 2024 general:
PA: +10.3 points
NJ: +7.5 points
CT: +7.3 points
https://bsky.app/profile/electproject.bsky.social/post/3m4drjcvbmk2p
OH: Likely deal struck on new map to minimize losses for Dems: https://nitter.poast.org/OPoliticsguru/status/1983732664625721607#m
Other than the 1st, it's about as good as they can get under current circumstances.