The Democratic leader of the Maryland Senate on Tuesday sent a letter to dozens of state lawmakers rejecting the party’s effort to redistrict in the state, bucking Democrats’ national effort to redraw congressional lines.
Don't know. And maybe the caucus doesn't disagree with him. He maintains that the State Supreme Court may not uphold it and that it will risk becoming a dummymander.
It definitely won't become a dummymander - that's a ridiculous argument. Many people, including myself, have drawn safe 8-0 maps of Maryland.
As for the MD Supreme Court, I don't know much about its composition, but Moore could get involved (I assume he's appointing liberal justices to it?). But frankly, Dems should try it either way. We have nothing to lose, and no one would change their vote over it.
Just because we think we’d lose doesn’t mean we shouldn’t at least try. Do you know how often Republicans fight things they know they will lose on? And sometimes they end up winning those. Screw this whole “well, they’re GOP judges” so we should just sit on our hands thinking. You want to know why our base thinks our party is weak? This, this is why. Giving up before even trying.
I know it’s almost certainly going to lose with this court makeup, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t at least show we’re trying to fight. And if the court knocks it down, great! That creates an impetus among our voters to be open to expanding the court, removing judges, making the court justices required to be elected or giving veto power to the legislature over governor appointees in the future.
This is one thing that the GOP gets right, losing a battle actually wins in the long run! Because losing makes their voter base mad and means their voters become more open to radical changes they weren’t open to before losing in order to make sure they win next time.
Holding a Supreme Court seat open for 3 years, overturning a previous court ruling from the same court when partisanship control changes, not respecting any precedent from previous court rulings, the list is endless and Democrats need to start to fight the hopeless battles if we ever want our base to view us as fighting for them.
We wave the white flag before we even get to the arena more often than not. That’s why we’re a weak party.
It is not needed if the right Dem candidate would take on the current Republican congressman. Jake Day, the former mayor of the city of Salisbury on the eastern shore of Maryland could be that Dem candidate.
Jake Day is currently the secretary for the state department of housing and community development and is well known in this role on the eastern shore. Both have history on the eastern shore
They can pass a constitutional amendment that include an 8-0 map and have it voted on next year, it won't be in place for 2026 but that is one way to do something without running afoul of the SCOMD.
The fact that this Latonya Reeves lady was the only challenger for Omar that could be found (Ryan Winkler was being floated but he said no), while progressives have gotten Justin Pearson and are about to get Brad Lander, is certainly interesting.
Yes, Omar and Lee seem to be the only two squad members AIPAC tried to recruit challengers to. It looks like this cycle they aren’t landing their preferred candidates like they did in 2024
State Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa is running as a Republican against Dem Rep. Jill Tokuda. Ordinarily I wouldn’t mention something like this given the blue nature of the district, but Awa has a very interesting profile:
“Described as a maverick, unconventional, and hybrid Hawaiian, Awa cast more than 1,000 "no" votes over his first two legislative sessions and was the sole "no" vote on 10% of all bills passed during that time, unparalleled in recent history. Awa is the only Hawaii lawmaker with a "no gift" policy.”
Short answer, no. It's a D+12 district in what could easily shape up to be a Dem-friendly election. Having an idiosyncratic profile isn't a silver bullet.
apparently in his State Senate campaigns he pledged to neither campaign or accept donations. I'm not sure that would work in a federal election when you're already in an unfavorable district
Despite HI-02 getting to the right of HI-01 by pres margin last year, I still think HI-01 would be their better bet to find party splitters. There's little to no movement on the windward side of Oahu, and the other islands have too many down the line liberals. That said, Awa is going to easily carry everything from North Shore to the leeward coast on Oahu, as that side of the island becomes the new base of the HI GOP. Big change from the Lingle years.
Latonya Reeves’ day job is as a career probation officer. She’s also President-Elect of MCA, which is an organization advancing the interests of corrections personnel.
#earlyvote numbers for three states where I have party registration, percentage point change in Dem party registration among early voters, same day before the election comparison to 2024 general:
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in The Bulwark's offices when Kasky started talking about running for Congress. I'm sure his sidekick on FYPod, Tim Miller has encouraged him to do it. Also was this the reason why The Bulwark brought Jack Cocchiarella onboard so FYPod can continue in Kasky's absence while he's running for Congress?
Representative Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who represents parts of Long Island and Queens, endorsed Cuomo for mayor on Wednesday, breaking with many leaders from his party who are supporting Mamdani.
Incredible. If the shoe were on the other foot and Mamdani, after losing in the primary, were running as an Independent, and received AOC's endorsement, I can't imagine the tidal wave of opprobrium that would rain down on her.
The best thing Tom Suozzi has going for him is that he replaced George Santos. Aside from this, his influence has little weight in the NYC Mayoral Race.
Yes, I remember Suozzi for years in the House was a notoriously difficult incumbent for the GOP to unseat. Even Santos himself challenged Suozzi back in 2020 and lost by 12.5% points.
If we can get someone else besides Suozzi in NY-03, great. If not, fine with him being in the House as long as it is one less seat to worry about in the name of Democrats winning back control over the House.
I remember being surprised that Israel gave up the seat. There were some initial concerns about Suozzi running to replace him, IIRC, because being voted out of a county executive post isn't exactly the best springboard to Congress.
Him and Gillen represent Trump districts, so I’m willing to give them both a pass on not endorsing and actively attacking Mamdani, just like I would for any other Trump district Democrat. We don’t need every wing of the party to support every candidate we have in every race.
While that obviously would be the ideal goal and scenario, they need to represent their districts first to hold their seats and not just what we as partisan party Democrats want. I distinctly recall a lot of 2018 House Democratic candidates who attacked Pelosi, our party leader, in their races and then after the dust settled in the election too.
I firmly stand behind Pelosi’s mantra and it’s one I think we all should get behind: Just win baby. Tolerate and do whatever it takes to win, even if it goes against our own policy preference/ideology. I will, however, criticize him for endorsing Cuomo, that’s not needed. You can disagree and disavow Mamdani, but choosing to support a sexual assaulter for Governor who resigned in disgrace? That’s a bridge too far for me.
Yes, sorry, I got the numbers backwards, Harris won the seat by 1 point and Gillen won her first election by 2 points. She also lost by 4 in a year pretty decent for our party considering Biden was president when she ran previously, so she likely felt she had to move right and attack the left of the party to defeat the GOP incumbent who beat her in the last race (which she ended up being right about, flipping the seat in a year that was horrific for almost every Democrat on the ballot across the country).
She’s not being islamaphobic, because I can almost guarantee if a different DSA white person had won the primary who also believed the same as Mamdani on the banned topic, she’d be attacking them too. She’s attacking the left of the party for policies and stances her district doesn’t agree with, not because Mamdani is a Muslim.
I’m going to cutoff this conversation further because we’re veering dangerously close to the banned topic having a debate over islamaphobia, but I still give her a pass. It’s a moderate district and she’s a moderate Democrat. Nothing wrong with what she’s doing imo even if I very much disagree entirely with her on it.
I understand he has to keep distance from Mamdani in his Trump district. But he can't afford to stray too far in the the other direction and turn into a Sinema/Fetterman type.
This could elevate Abughazaleh in a very crowded primary, similar to how Ras Baraka went from very little support in the NJ-Gov primary to nearly winning the nomination after he was arrested in a similar situation.
IL-09 hasn't had much polling but what little there has been has shown Biss with a solid lead by margins but not by absolute percent. It's exactly the kind of situation where this could put her into the lead. Which will depend a lot on how much traction the story gets and if she gets extra coverage from it.
as a resident of Evanston for three years for college, I think the district could do worse. I predated Biss' tenure as mayor, but he seems like the best choice, but a media savvy gen zer in a safe blue seat seems like it has the potential for some upside. (I'd vote for Biss, but would be happy with either)
she's demonstrating better instincts than basically everyone else running for the seat. it's worth a shot seeing what she does in that office. worst case, there's a primary 2 years afterwards.
Yes, but she's quite possibly the least subtle carpetbagger in recent years along with Dr. Oz. No connection to Illinois before 2024, lives outside of the district, seemingly only running in the 9th because she thought the (rather progressive) incumbent was too old. If someone like her was running where I live, I'd feel genuinely insulted. You can't represent a community you don't understand.
i think this is old school political thinking. it's not even the kind i disagree with. but it is totally worthless to gripe about this sort of thing when the President is a serial rapist sending his masked thugs to abduct nonwhite people from their communities.
Really not sure why NYC-Mayor gets polled so often. Every poll since the primary has shown exactly the same thing, that Mamdani has a double-digit lead. No one appears to be changing their mind. For better or worse, everyone's mind seems to be made up.
I'd much rather see polls of Virginia delegate races, or Pennsylvania's judicial elections, or the Maine absentee voting referendum. Those are all important, and seriously underpolled.
I think AWildLibAppeared covered the main reason. I think on top of what they said, there's also a bit of wishcasting from the types of people and organizations that fund polling. A lot of them do not like Mamdani and are hoping to find a reality where he does not become mayor.
What's the correct amount of polling for this race? It seems to get a lot of attention in here as well, should we be criticized for talking about this race because the results won't change? It's the mid-mid term, not a whole lot of races are going on.
It’s because most of the main media organizations in the country are headquartered there. Nothing else to do, but report on goings on in their own back yard. NYC has always received a disproportionate amount of media attention in the country. Their mayors receive the same treatment too.
It was a national story when De Blasio screwed up snow removal. This is completely normal and to be expected.
Reminds me of this map portraying how the War Department (it and the Navy Department are predecessors to today's Defense Department) viewed America in 1940:
If someone drew a similar map today depicting how the national news media viewed America, the only major changes would be that California, DC, and the Southern states (especially Virginia, Florida, and Texas) would be bigger, whereas Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island would be smaller, especially Connecticut.
1) Cuomo has to walk a tightrope politically. He needs a clear majority of Republicans and independents, and at least a third or so of Democrats, to have any chance of winning. In other words, Rudy Giuliani's 1993 coalition, minus some Republicans who reflexively vote for the Republican nominee, plus noticeably more Democrats.
2) Early voting has favored more older age demographics (good for Cuomo), but has also favored Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens more than Staten Island and The Bronx (good for Mamdani). Day 3 of early voting, however, had a younger demographic profile than the first two days. Gothamist had this observation based on anecdotal evidence from Manhattan's Upper East Side:
"Gothamist spoke with voters at two poll sites in the Upper East Side and found a nearly even split in support for Cuomo and Mamdani amongst voters older than 55, but almost uniform support for Mamdani among younger voters."
Anecdotal evidence is not a substitute for scientific polling/analysis, but, if Cuomo is only managing a tie among 55 and older voters in the Upper East Side, that is big trouble for him. It's also possible that the early vote is less favorable to Cuomo than Election Day voting will be.
Sometimes low-value assholes get knifed by GOP rivals simply because they’re assholes. Ryan Walters getting kicked upstairs because everyone in OK hated him is another example
I do appreciate the fact that his career imploded thanks to him being the one person in America who leaves Samsung TV on instead of just cycling over the to streaming app he actually wants
Is it just me, or does his appointed replacement seem to be surprisingly un-terrible, as far as Republicans go? He rescinded the Trump-bibles-in-classrooms shit, for starters.
I'm tired of unqualified right-wing ghouls in state superintendent positions (Walters in Oklahoma, Weaver in South Carolina, Horne—ugh!—in Arizona, etc.).
Walters is so far to the right ideologically (he's basically an Oklahoma version of Roy Moore from an ideological standpoint), pretty much any successor to him (even a very conservative Republican) would be to his ideological left, even if only on one or two issues.
Tom Horne is very much a moderate compared to Shelli Boggs down in Maricopa. She's lucky her seat is up in presidential years, both she and Heap would have lost in 2022.
Final campaign fundraising reports for Virginia are in for the final month of the campaign. We might be talking about a Democratic Supermajority in the House of Delegates on Tuesday as Republican donors have put all their eggs in the Attorney General Miyares basket.
Yup, at the very least Youngkin has closed his wallet to his party in the state for this election whereas in 2023, that was distinctly not the case and was a big part of the reason Democrats only barely won a majority in the chamber back then.
I'm still amazed that Youngkin wasn't able to coax a stronger Republican into the race than Winsome Earle-Sears. It's not like they were buddies or anything—the governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately!
How many people would try to convince a politician they are buddies with to run into an election that is likely to be a buzzsaw for their party for reasons entirely outside of control for anyone in state?
I'm not too surprised because the republican candidate this year was going to be thrown to the wolves regardless. The timing, political environment, and trends in Virginia make it worse than uphill.
If the current LG that he has minimal personal relationship with wants to try, it's no skin off his back.
It never was everything. We can remember many instances of candidates who tried to buy their way into office but were either vapid and/or of the wrong party to win. Huffington in California is one example that comes to mind.
You pretty much answered your own question. They didn’t even try this time, instead solely focusing on re-electing Miyares. In hindsight come Tuesday night I think they’re going to massively regret that decision and see how stupid their gamble was as they lose everything anyways and could’ve held onto a few more State House seats if they were better invested in.
So in other words, what you are saying is that the GOP wants to give control of state government to Democrats and focus more on just electing a damn Attorney General.
Honestly, it’s not really an insane decision. It’s a bad one because when you’re facing a wave and you’re likely to lose all the top ticket races, you want to save as many seats as possible to make it easier to win power next time. But I get why they decided to do what they did.
Their thinking basically goes “he’s an incumbent, facing a scandal plagued Democrat, so he’s our best shot to have any leverage of power in the state. In the House of Delegates races, the GOP doesn’t have that benefit of facing a damaged Democratic opponent and they knew they had 0 chance of winning the majority.
So rather than try to save a few House of Delegates seats that won’t block any Democratic legislation from the incoming trifecta, maybe the State Supreme Court (which has a Republican majority currently) uses the incumbent GOP Attorney Generals arguments/filings in upcoming lawsuits Republicans will file, to win some of the battles in the courts.
Remember that Trump’s MAGA party isn’t about increasing incremental power or winning easier next time, it’s about having complete control right now, so for them having a few less seats to flip in 2 years is a lot less meaningful than potentially having a Republican statewide elected official in a blue state to stall or block their opponents policies who they then have as a ready made candidate to run for Governor next time 4 years from now.
The Attorney General position in Virginia has fairly often lead to the Governors mansion, so if I were the party, I’d take that gamble too. If Harris was President right now, Miyares would win re-election and this bet would look genius. But I think it’s just going to lead to the worst case scenario for them: losing everything AND having a way harder time flipping the majority in 2027.
Dutch exit polls suggest a bit of a clusterfuck as voters atomize quite a bit between parties; far-right PVV loses a good bit to even further-right JA21 while the center-liberal D66 surges.
I do think this winds up one of those “good enough” from fence sitting/moderate Dems or “let’s give him a chance” from not usual Democratic voters type of election where people not at all aligned with Mamdani politically or ideologically vote for him regardless because of him or his refreshingly new ideas on tackling affordability. I think he’ll overperform his polling.
Anecdotally, the other day on twitter I saw a “MAGA for Mamdani” t-shirt wearing white older man who said when asked about it that he was a first time ever Democratic voter for any election. “I like his policies” was his response on why he was supporting Mamdani.
Keep in mind Mamdani has also said he’s against defunding the police so he’s also trying to be mindful of common sense things that could otherwise divide Democrats and New Yorkers.
I am not commenting specifically on what Mamdani would do if he’s elected Mayor but from this breakthrough development than a week until the election, it’s a sign Mamdani can in fact have skills to bring opposing sides together. If he ends up being more of a uniter than a divider, that bolds well for him as mayor and for his political future beyond that.
I'm glad at least he realized the "defund the police" nonsense from the far left was a disaster politically. Its a tough spot politically if he turns into bland mayor, his supporters will be disappointed and he'll still be unpopular with surburbites
I suspect it's anti-establishment at the core. Which isn't a policy per se, but typical voters do not think of elections through the same lenses that people like us do. And there could still be policies attached to it, might be the stuff that the rich people are angriest about at its most basic.
This was posted late last night:
The Democratic leader of the Maryland Senate on Tuesday sent a letter to dozens of state lawmakers rejecting the party’s effort to redistrict in the state, bucking Democrats’ national effort to redraw congressional lines.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/28/maryland-redistricting-senate-president-bill-ferguson-00626808
Can the rest of the Democratic caucus in the Maryland Senate remove this guy from his position?
Kind of crazy how Harris+6 Virginia is willing to redistrict in order to give Dems more seats, but Harris+29 Maryland isn't. Ridiculous!
Don't know. And maybe the caucus doesn't disagree with him. He maintains that the State Supreme Court may not uphold it and that it will risk becoming a dummymander.
It definitely won't become a dummymander - that's a ridiculous argument. Many people, including myself, have drawn safe 8-0 maps of Maryland.
As for the MD Supreme Court, I don't know much about its composition, but Moore could get involved (I assume he's appointing liberal justices to it?). But frankly, Dems should try it either way. We have nothing to lose, and no one would change their vote over it.
5 of the seven justices were appointed by Larry Hogan.
Just because we think we’d lose doesn’t mean we shouldn’t at least try. Do you know how often Republicans fight things they know they will lose on? And sometimes they end up winning those. Screw this whole “well, they’re GOP judges” so we should just sit on our hands thinking. You want to know why our base thinks our party is weak? This, this is why. Giving up before even trying.
I know it’s almost certainly going to lose with this court makeup, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t at least show we’re trying to fight. And if the court knocks it down, great! That creates an impetus among our voters to be open to expanding the court, removing judges, making the court justices required to be elected or giving veto power to the legislature over governor appointees in the future.
This is one thing that the GOP gets right, losing a battle actually wins in the long run! Because losing makes their voter base mad and means their voters become more open to radical changes they weren’t open to before losing in order to make sure they win next time.
Holding a Supreme Court seat open for 3 years, overturning a previous court ruling from the same court when partisanship control changes, not respecting any precedent from previous court rulings, the list is endless and Democrats need to start to fight the hopeless battles if we ever want our base to view us as fighting for them.
We wave the white flag before we even get to the arena more often than not. That’s why we’re a weak party.
Well said. You need to become a political advisor to the next Democratic President.
The SCOMD is 5 Hogan appointees, 1 O'Malley appointee and 1 Moore appointee. Even the O'Malley appointee is not reliably liberal.
You can draw a map where every D represents their hometown, is sufficiently blue, and make the 1st light blue.
That sucks, but is a real hurdle. I'm at least mollified now by the fact VA can apparently act in time for 2026. There's more room for growth there.
The Democratic base should put the same pressure on him Trump is on states like Indiana.
It is not needed if the right Dem candidate would take on the current Republican congressman. Jake Day, the former mayor of the city of Salisbury on the eastern shore of Maryland could be that Dem candidate.
Still tough. It's R +8 and Trump +17. Would take a wave.
Wouldn't Jim Mathias be a stronger candidate? He represented the Senate district with Ocean City in it for a long time.
Maybe
Jake Day is currently the secretary for the state department of housing and community development and is well known in this role on the eastern shore. Both have history on the eastern shore
I heard some chatter last year about celebrity chef Jose Andres running as well
He's probably a DINO, only running as a dem because the nature of his state.
They can pass a constitutional amendment that include an 8-0 map and have it voted on next year, it won't be in place for 2026 but that is one way to do something without running afoul of the SCOMD.
NY-Gov: Your poll write up for the Stefanik-Delgado matchup is missing the Stefanik number :)
Fixed!
The fact that this Latonya Reeves lady was the only challenger for Omar that could be found (Ryan Winkler was being floated but he said no), while progressives have gotten Justin Pearson and are about to get Brad Lander, is certainly interesting.
And it looks like Pittsburgh Controller Rachel Heisler may have decided against Summer Lee, unless she’s keeping things quiet ahead of a late launch.
Ruben Diaz should move to aoc's district and try to primary her. Lol
Why would you want that?
I read Julius Zinn's comment as sarcastic.
I was being facetious
I've heard that she was being recruited by AIPAC.
Yes, Omar and Lee seem to be the only two squad members AIPAC tried to recruit challengers to. It looks like this cycle they aren’t landing their preferred candidates like they did in 2024
They sent out a letter about Jayapal too, but that didn’t go anywhere.
HI-02:
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2025/10/27/republican-state-senator-confirms-decision-run-congress/
State Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa is running as a Republican against Dem Rep. Jill Tokuda. Ordinarily I wouldn’t mention something like this given the blue nature of the district, but Awa has a very interesting profile:
“Described as a maverick, unconventional, and hybrid Hawaiian, Awa cast more than 1,000 "no" votes over his first two legislative sessions and was the sole "no" vote on 10% of all bills passed during that time, unparalleled in recent history. Awa is the only Hawaii lawmaker with a "no gift" policy.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brenton_Awa
Given this profile, could Awa be a bigger threat than normal, or is he doomed as most GOP members would be here?
Short answer, no. It's a D+12 district in what could easily shape up to be a Dem-friendly election. Having an idiosyncratic profile isn't a silver bullet.
Good to know. Thanks!
No, but he is hot, and as is well established that's worth a few points in itself
apparently in his State Senate campaigns he pledged to neither campaign or accept donations. I'm not sure that would work in a federal election when you're already in an unfavorable district
Despite HI-02 getting to the right of HI-01 by pres margin last year, I still think HI-01 would be their better bet to find party splitters. There's little to no movement on the windward side of Oahu, and the other islands have too many down the line liberals. That said, Awa is going to easily carry everything from North Shore to the leeward coast on Oahu, as that side of the island becomes the new base of the HI GOP. Big change from the Lingle years.
Latonya Reeves’ day job is as a career probation officer. She’s also President-Elect of MCA, which is an organization advancing the interests of corrections personnel.
Points against her, in my opinion. Remember the NY prison guard strike, when they couldn’t use solitary confinement and raised hell over that?
FWIW:
#earlyvote numbers for three states where I have party registration, percentage point change in Dem party registration among early voters, same day before the election comparison to 2024 general:
PA: +10.3 points
NJ: +7.5 points
CT: +7.3 points
https://bsky.app/profile/electproject.bsky.social/post/3m4drjcvbmk2p
What's on tap in CT?
Just local elections I believe.
https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1983284165333369227
Cameron Kasky of the March for Our Lives has officially filed paperwork for a bid for NY-12, Nadler’s old seat.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in The Bulwark's offices when Kasky started talking about running for Congress. I'm sure his sidekick on FYPod, Tim Miller has encouraged him to do it. Also was this the reason why The Bulwark brought Jack Cocchiarella onboard so FYPod can continue in Kasky's absence while he's running for Congress?
Representative Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who represents parts of Long Island and Queens, endorsed Cuomo for mayor on Wednesday, breaking with many leaders from his party who are supporting Mamdani.
Incredible. If the shoe were on the other foot and Mamdani, after losing in the primary, were running as an Independent, and received AOC's endorsement, I can't imagine the tidal wave of opprobrium that would rain down on her.
Profile in courage. Takes real guts to buck the party line and endorse a sexual predator.
And an anti-Muslim bigot.
The best thing Tom Suozzi has going for him is that he replaced George Santos. Aside from this, his influence has little weight in the NYC Mayoral Race.
He also preceded Santos...the only reason Santos was in the house was because suozzi callously challenged hochul from the right
I still think the guy Santos defeated in 2022 (Robert Zimmerman) would have been a HUGE improvement over Suozzi.
What was Robert Zimmerman's candidacy like? I don't remember much about his campaign but I got the impression he was not a Suozzi type.
Totally drowned out by Zeldin and Santos, but seemed like a genuinely decent and humble guy. He would have won the seat in 2018 or 2020.
I was surprised he didn't win in 2022. It wasn't like Santos did a real campaign in the first place.
Fun fact, that election was the first election in US history where both major party candidates were openly gay.
Yes, I remember Suozzi for years in the House was a notoriously difficult incumbent for the GOP to unseat. Even Santos himself challenged Suozzi back in 2020 and lost by 12.5% points.
If we can get someone else besides Suozzi in NY-03, great. If not, fine with him being in the House as long as it is one less seat to worry about in the name of Democrats winning back control over the House.
I wish former Rep. and bookstore owner Steve Israel would run - he's an establishment liberal, but he is not center right like Suozzi.
I remember being surprised that Israel gave up the seat. There were some initial concerns about Suozzi running to replace him, IIRC, because being voted out of a county executive post isn't exactly the best springboard to Congress.
Israel is 67, so it's fine that he's retired from Congress.
He also used to be the Nassau County Executive.
MMW, Gillen who called him "pro-Hamas Zohran unfit to hold any office" and Goldman who said he felt unsafe due to Mamdani will be next.
I understand that Gillen and Suozzi's districts hate him, but can't they quietly oppose him while not endorsing against the party ticket.
Goldman probably won't. Primary challenge concerns.
And he’s not Gillen or Suozzi.
They can loudly oppose him, but they shouldn't libel him.
Well, to be sure, Zohran is toxic on Long Island.
Him and Gillen represent Trump districts, so I’m willing to give them both a pass on not endorsing and actively attacking Mamdani, just like I would for any other Trump district Democrat. We don’t need every wing of the party to support every candidate we have in every race.
While that obviously would be the ideal goal and scenario, they need to represent their districts first to hold their seats and not just what we as partisan party Democrats want. I distinctly recall a lot of 2018 House Democratic candidates who attacked Pelosi, our party leader, in their races and then after the dust settled in the election too.
I firmly stand behind Pelosi’s mantra and it’s one I think we all should get behind: Just win baby. Tolerate and do whatever it takes to win, even if it goes against our own policy preference/ideology. I will, however, criticize him for endorsing Cuomo, that’s not needed. You can disagree and disavow Mamdani, but choosing to support a sexual assaulter for Governor who resigned in disgrace? That’s a bridge too far for me.
Harris won Gillen’s seat! It rlly seems like she’s just being islamophobic for shiggles.
Yes, sorry, I got the numbers backwards, Harris won the seat by 1 point and Gillen won her first election by 2 points. She also lost by 4 in a year pretty decent for our party considering Biden was president when she ran previously, so she likely felt she had to move right and attack the left of the party to defeat the GOP incumbent who beat her in the last race (which she ended up being right about, flipping the seat in a year that was horrific for almost every Democrat on the ballot across the country).
She’s not being islamaphobic, because I can almost guarantee if a different DSA white person had won the primary who also believed the same as Mamdani on the banned topic, she’d be attacking them too. She’s attacking the left of the party for policies and stances her district doesn’t agree with, not because Mamdani is a Muslim.
I’m going to cutoff this conversation further because we’re veering dangerously close to the banned topic having a debate over islamaphobia, but I still give her a pass. It’s a moderate district and she’s a moderate Democrat. Nothing wrong with what she’s doing imo even if I very much disagree entirely with her on it.
I think it's Islamophobic to baselessly accuse a Muslim candidate of supporting a terror group but wtv
I understand he has to keep distance from Mamdani in his Trump district. But he can't afford to stray too far in the the other direction and turn into a Sinema/Fetterman type.
That's what he is, at least rhetorically.
That's absolutely on brand for him.
IL-9 - Democratic primary candidate Kat Abughazaleh charged by Trump's DoJ for protesting outside of an ICE facility in the Chicago suburbs:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DQZosTAjp4d/?igsh=azFuaWp0d20wZTFl
This could elevate Abughazaleh in a very crowded primary, similar to how Ras Baraka went from very little support in the NJ-Gov primary to nearly winning the nomination after he was arrested in a similar situation.
IL-09 hasn't had much polling but what little there has been has shown Biss with a solid lead by margins but not by absolute percent. It's exactly the kind of situation where this could put her into the lead. Which will depend a lot on how much traction the story gets and if she gets extra coverage from it.
God I hope not. Glad she’s standing up for immigrants but she shouldn’t be the congressperson from IL-9.
Gonna have to leave that up to the voters in the district, though.
So THAT'S how elections work! Never would have figured it out otherwise.
as a resident of Evanston for three years for college, I think the district could do worse. I predated Biss' tenure as mayor, but he seems like the best choice, but a media savvy gen zer in a safe blue seat seems like it has the potential for some upside. (I'd vote for Biss, but would be happy with either)
she's demonstrating better instincts than basically everyone else running for the seat. it's worth a shot seeing what she does in that office. worst case, there's a primary 2 years afterwards.
Yes, but she's quite possibly the least subtle carpetbagger in recent years along with Dr. Oz. No connection to Illinois before 2024, lives outside of the district, seemingly only running in the 9th because she thought the (rather progressive) incumbent was too old. If someone like her was running where I live, I'd feel genuinely insulted. You can't represent a community you don't understand.
i think this is old school political thinking. it's not even the kind i disagree with. but it is totally worthless to gripe about this sort of thing when the President is a serial rapist sending his masked thugs to abduct nonwhite people from their communities.
Q releases an NYC Mayor poll: Mamdani 43%, Cuomo 33%, Sliwa 14%, and 9% undecided/no response.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
Really not sure why NYC-Mayor gets polled so often. Every poll since the primary has shown exactly the same thing, that Mamdani has a double-digit lead. No one appears to be changing their mind. For better or worse, everyone's mind seems to be made up.
I'd much rather see polls of Virginia delegate races, or Pennsylvania's judicial elections, or the Maine absentee voting referendum. Those are all important, and seriously underpolled.
I think the dynamics of the mayoral race have caused it to get the most interest. And ultimately, many of these pollsters want attention.
If they were the ones to show the race tightening, they'd get a lot of media attention.
I think AWildLibAppeared covered the main reason. I think on top of what they said, there's also a bit of wishcasting from the types of people and organizations that fund polling. A lot of them do not like Mamdani and are hoping to find a reality where he does not become mayor.
What's the correct amount of polling for this race? It seems to get a lot of attention in here as well, should we be criticized for talking about this race because the results won't change? It's the mid-mid term, not a whole lot of races are going on.
It’s because most of the main media organizations in the country are headquartered there. Nothing else to do, but report on goings on in their own back yard. NYC has always received a disproportionate amount of media attention in the country. Their mayors receive the same treatment too.
It was a national story when De Blasio screwed up snow removal. This is completely normal and to be expected.
Reminds me of this map portraying how the War Department (it and the Navy Department are predecessors to today's Defense Department) viewed America in 1940:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DQaDTo5gcxs/
If someone drew a similar map today depicting how the national news media viewed America, the only major changes would be that California, DC, and the Southern states (especially Virginia, Florida, and Texas) would be bigger, whereas Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island would be smaller, especially Connecticut.
"Sliwa"
"crank"
Whoops, dyslexic moment! Thank you.
Once again, Silwa, thank you for your service in preventing Cuomo from being elected.
Two points:
1) Cuomo has to walk a tightrope politically. He needs a clear majority of Republicans and independents, and at least a third or so of Democrats, to have any chance of winning. In other words, Rudy Giuliani's 1993 coalition, minus some Republicans who reflexively vote for the Republican nominee, plus noticeably more Democrats.
2) Early voting has favored more older age demographics (good for Cuomo), but has also favored Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens more than Staten Island and The Bronx (good for Mamdani). Day 3 of early voting, however, had a younger demographic profile than the first two days. Gothamist had this observation based on anecdotal evidence from Manhattan's Upper East Side:
"Gothamist spoke with voters at two poll sites in the Upper East Side and found a nearly even split in support for Cuomo and Mamdani amongst voters older than 55, but almost uniform support for Mamdani among younger voters."
Anecdotal evidence is not a substitute for scientific polling/analysis, but, if Cuomo is only managing a tie among 55 and older voters in the Upper East Side, that is big trouble for him. It's also possible that the early vote is less favorable to Cuomo than Election Day voting will be.
https://gothamist.com/news/the-boomer-boom-fueling-early-voting-turnout-in-nyc-mayors-race
https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/midwest/indiana-lt-gov-micah-beckwith-investigation/
Not that this will likely amount to much, but on the off chance he gets ousted, good riddance.
Sometimes low-value assholes get knifed by GOP rivals simply because they’re assholes. Ryan Walters getting kicked upstairs because everyone in OK hated him is another example
Walters thought he could out-Trump Trump.
Turns out he couldn't.
I do appreciate the fact that his career imploded thanks to him being the one person in America who leaves Samsung TV on instead of just cycling over the to streaming app he actually wants
Is it just me, or does his appointed replacement seem to be surprisingly un-terrible, as far as Republicans go? He rescinded the Trump-bibles-in-classrooms shit, for starters.
I'm tired of unqualified right-wing ghouls in state superintendent positions (Walters in Oklahoma, Weaver in South Carolina, Horne—ugh!—in Arizona, etc.).
Walters is so far to the right ideologically (he's basically an Oklahoma version of Roy Moore from an ideological standpoint), pretty much any successor to him (even a very conservative Republican) would be to his ideological left, even if only on one or two issues.
Tom Horne is very much a moderate compared to Shelli Boggs down in Maricopa. She's lucky her seat is up in presidential years, both she and Heap would have lost in 2022.
Final campaign fundraising reports for Virginia are in for the final month of the campaign. We might be talking about a Democratic Supermajority in the House of Delegates on Tuesday as Republican donors have put all their eggs in the Attorney General Miyares basket.
Democrats: $21.7m raised
Republicans: $6.8m raised
https://x.com/samshirazim/status/1983136613841449231
Wow just insane fundraising by Virginia House of Delegates Dems in October
GOP just focused on AG race
10 Dem challengers to GOP incumbents raised more than $1M!
Dems out raised GOP in every competitive district by large amounts
Could lead to numerous seats flipping
For VA HoD is supermajority being defined as 60/100 or 67/100?
Great question, since it’s different for every state. In Virginia specifically it’s a 60-40 majority.
It takes 2/3rd to override a Governor's veto so 67/100 would be considered a supermajority.
Money isn't everything anymore but this is great to see
Yup, at the very least Youngkin has closed his wallet to his party in the state for this election whereas in 2023, that was distinctly not the case and was a big part of the reason Democrats only barely won a majority in the chamber back then.
I'm still amazed that Youngkin wasn't able to coax a stronger Republican into the race than Winsome Earle-Sears. It's not like they were buddies or anything—the governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately!
How many people would try to convince a politician they are buddies with to run into an election that is likely to be a buzzsaw for their party for reasons entirely outside of control for anyone in state?
I'm not too surprised because the republican candidate this year was going to be thrown to the wolves regardless. The timing, political environment, and trends in Virginia make it worse than uphill.
If the current LG that he has minimal personal relationship with wants to try, it's no skin off his back.
It never was everything. We can remember many instances of candidates who tried to buy their way into office but were either vapid and/or of the wrong party to win. Huffington in California is one example that comes to mind.
If money wasn't at least *something* then there wouldn't be such a focus on fundraising.
Of course! And it's still something!
I misread your comment, apologies!
No problem!
God DAMN.
How did the GOP suck so bad at fundraising this time around? It's like the party didn't even try as much.
You pretty much answered your own question. They didn’t even try this time, instead solely focusing on re-electing Miyares. In hindsight come Tuesday night I think they’re going to massively regret that decision and see how stupid their gamble was as they lose everything anyways and could’ve held onto a few more State House seats if they were better invested in.
So in other words, what you are saying is that the GOP wants to give control of state government to Democrats and focus more on just electing a damn Attorney General.
That’s just bonkers! Hahaha
Honestly, it’s not really an insane decision. It’s a bad one because when you’re facing a wave and you’re likely to lose all the top ticket races, you want to save as many seats as possible to make it easier to win power next time. But I get why they decided to do what they did.
Their thinking basically goes “he’s an incumbent, facing a scandal plagued Democrat, so he’s our best shot to have any leverage of power in the state. In the House of Delegates races, the GOP doesn’t have that benefit of facing a damaged Democratic opponent and they knew they had 0 chance of winning the majority.
So rather than try to save a few House of Delegates seats that won’t block any Democratic legislation from the incoming trifecta, maybe the State Supreme Court (which has a Republican majority currently) uses the incumbent GOP Attorney Generals arguments/filings in upcoming lawsuits Republicans will file, to win some of the battles in the courts.
Remember that Trump’s MAGA party isn’t about increasing incremental power or winning easier next time, it’s about having complete control right now, so for them having a few less seats to flip in 2 years is a lot less meaningful than potentially having a Republican statewide elected official in a blue state to stall or block their opponents policies who they then have as a ready made candidate to run for Governor next time 4 years from now.
The Attorney General position in Virginia has fairly often lead to the Governors mansion, so if I were the party, I’d take that gamble too. If Harris was President right now, Miyares would win re-election and this bet would look genius. But I think it’s just going to lead to the worst case scenario for them: losing everything AND having a way harder time flipping the majority in 2027.
Look, as long as Democrats win elections in VA like they should everywhere else, that’s all that matters to me.
Let the GOP meltdown in VA if it means more Democrats get elected!
This is hilarious:
https://x.com/SenLouiseLucas/status/1983643246543634861
If this is any indication, Virginia Dems are at least considering a 10D-1R map.
Good. The GOP started this redistricting mess, and they deserve any and all losses that come from it.
The way the amendment is written it is only temporary through 2030. They may want to draw a 8-3 or 9-2 clean map to set a baseline next decade.
California's is the same
They should at least allow an emergency clause to have the legislature draw the lines should other states gerrymander.
I actually emailed a 10D-1R map to my legislators. Hopefully they saw it.
Dutch exit polls suggest a bit of a clusterfuck as voters atomize quite a bit between parties; far-right PVV loses a good bit to even further-right JA21 while the center-liberal D66 surges.
Full results may not be clear for a while
I'm not an expert on Dutch politics, but Wikipedia says that JA21 was intended to be not quite as far-right as the PVV. Has that changed?
As I understand it yes
NYC Mayoral Race
Wow. If Zohran Mamdani is able to win over an association that was highly critical of his policies to begin with, that’s a good sign of his campaign.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=us_r9Lmh0ew
I do think this winds up one of those “good enough” from fence sitting/moderate Dems or “let’s give him a chance” from not usual Democratic voters type of election where people not at all aligned with Mamdani politically or ideologically vote for him regardless because of him or his refreshingly new ideas on tackling affordability. I think he’ll overperform his polling.
Anecdotally, the other day on twitter I saw a “MAGA for Mamdani” t-shirt wearing white older man who said when asked about it that he was a first time ever Democratic voter for any election. “I like his policies” was his response on why he was supporting Mamdani.
Keep in mind Mamdani has also said he’s against defunding the police so he’s also trying to be mindful of common sense things that could otherwise divide Democrats and New Yorkers.
I am not commenting specifically on what Mamdani would do if he’s elected Mayor but from this breakthrough development than a week until the election, it’s a sign Mamdani can in fact have skills to bring opposing sides together. If he ends up being more of a uniter than a divider, that bolds well for him as mayor and for his political future beyond that.
I'm glad at least he realized the "defund the police" nonsense from the far left was a disaster politically. Its a tough spot politically if he turns into bland mayor, his supporters will be disappointed and he'll still be unpopular with surburbites
Someone needs to ask that man exactly which policies of Mamdani's convinced him to vote for him.
I suspect it's anti-establishment at the core. Which isn't a policy per se, but typical voters do not think of elections through the same lenses that people like us do. And there could still be policies attached to it, might be the stuff that the rich people are angriest about at its most basic.
OH: Likely deal struck on new map to minimize losses for Dems: https://nitter.poast.org/OPoliticsguru/status/1983732664625721607#m
Other than the 1st, it's about as good as they can get under current circumstances.
With that map in 2026 Sykes is def favored, Landsman should manage fairly easy, and Kaptur still has a real shot. Dems should take the deal
Landsman would have a tough race but could hold on. Kaptur is gone with that map.
Isn't there still an effort to force a non-partisan commission to redistrict through a referendum?
There was one on the ballot in 2024 but it failed 54-46, mostly due to a deceptive ballot summary imo. Not sure if there are plans to try again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1