I'm still amazed that Youngkin wasn't able to coax a stronger Republican into the race than Winsome Earle-Sears. It's not like they were buddies or anything—the governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately!
How many people would try to convince a politician they are buddies with to run into an election that is likely to be a buzzsaw for their party for reasons entirely outside of control for anyone in state?
I'm not too surprised because the republican candidate this year was going to be thrown to the wolves regardless. The timing, political environment, and trends in Virginia make it worse than uphill.
If the current LG that he has minimal personal relationship with wants to try, it's no skin off his back.
It never was everything. We can remember many instances of candidates who tried to buy their way into office but were either vapid and/or of the wrong party to win. Huffington in California is one example that comes to mind.
So in other words, what you are saying is that the GOP wants to give control of state government to Democrats and focus more on just electing a damn Attorney General.
Sometimes low-value assholes get knifed by GOP rivals simply because they’re assholes. Ryan Walters getting kicked upstairs because everyone in OK hated him is another example
I do appreciate the fact that his career imploded thanks to him being the one person in America who leaves Samsung TV on instead of just cycling over the to streaming app he actually wants
Is it just me, or does his appointed replacement seem to be surprisingly un-terrible, as far as Republicans go? He rescinded the Trump-bibles-in-classrooms shit, for starters.
I'm tired of unqualified right-wing ghouls in state superintendent positions (Walters in Oklahoma, Weaver in South Carolina, Horne—ugh!—in Arizona, etc.).
Tom Horne is very much a moderate compared to Shelli Boggs down in Maricopa. She's lucky her seat is up in presidential years, both she and Heap would have lost in 2022.
IL-09 hasn't had much polling but what little there has been has shown Biss with a solid lead by margins but not by absolute percent. It's exactly the kind of situation where this could put her into the lead. Which will depend a lot on how much traction the story gets and if she gets extra coverage from it.
Yes, but she's quite possibly the least subtle carpetbagger in recent years along with Dr. Oz. No connection to Illinois before 2024, lives outside of the district, seemingly only running in the 9th because she thought the (rather progressive) incumbent was too old. If someone like her was running where I live, I'd feel genuinely insulted. You can't represent a community you don't understand.
as a resident of Evanston for three years for college, I think the district could do worse. I predated Biss' tenure as mayor, but he seems like the best choice, but a media savvy gen zer in a safe blue seat seems like it has the potential for some upside. (I'd vote for Biss, but would be happy with either)
The Democratic leader of the Maryland Senate on Tuesday sent a letter to dozens of state lawmakers rejecting the party’s effort to redistrict in the state, bucking Democrats’ national effort to redraw congressional lines.
Don't know. And maybe the caucus doesn't disagree with him. He maintains that the State Supreme Court may not uphold it and that it will risk becoming a dummymander.
It is not needed if the right Dem candidate would take on the current Republican congressman. Jake Day, the former mayor of the city of Salisbury on the eastern shore of Maryland could be that Dem candidate.
Jake Day is currently the secretary for the state department of housing and community development and is well known in this role on the eastern shore. Both have history on the eastern shore
They can pass a constitutional amendment that include an 8-0 map and have it voted on next year, it won't be in place for 2026 but that is one way to do something without running afoul of the SCOMD.
The fact that this Latonya Reeves lady was the only challenger for Omar that could be found (Ryan Winkler was being floated but he said no), while progressives have gotten Justin Pearson and are about to get Brad Lander, is certainly interesting.
Yes, Omar and Lee seem to be the only two squad members AIPAC tried to recruit challengers to. It looks like this cycle they aren’t landing their preferred candidates like they did in 2024
State Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa is running as a Republican against Dem Rep. Jill Tokuda. Ordinarily I wouldn’t mention something like this given the blue nature of the district, but Awa has a very interesting profile:
“Described as a maverick, unconventional, and hybrid Hawaiian, Awa cast more than 1,000 "no" votes over his first two legislative sessions and was the sole "no" vote on 10% of all bills passed during that time, unparalleled in recent history. Awa is the only Hawaii lawmaker with a "no gift" policy.”
Short answer, no. It's a D+12 district in what could easily shape up to be a Dem-friendly election. Having an idiosyncratic profile isn't a silver bullet.
apparently in his State Senate campaigns he pledged to neither campaign or accept donations. I'm not sure that would work in a federal election when you're already in an unfavorable district
Despite HI-02 getting to the right of HI-01 by pres margin last year, I still think HI-01 would be their better bet to find party splitters. There's little to no movement on the windward side of Oahu, and the other islands have too many down the line liberals. That said, Awa is going to easily carry everything from North Shore to the leeward coast on Oahu, as that side of the island becomes the new base of the HI GOP. Big change from the Lingle years.
Latonya Reeves’ day job is as a career probation officer. She’s also President-Elect of MCA, which is an organization advancing the interests of corrections personnel.
#earlyvote numbers for three states where I have party registration, percentage point change in Dem party registration among early voters, same day before the election comparison to 2024 general:
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in The Bulwark's offices when Kasky started talking about running for Congress. I'm sure his sidekick on FYPod, Tim Miller has encouraged him to do it. Also was this the reason why The Bulwark brought Jack Cocchiarella onboard so FYPod can continue in Kasky's absence while he's running for Congress?
Representative Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who represents parts of Long Island and Queens, endorsed Cuomo for mayor on Wednesday, breaking with many leaders from his party who are supporting Mamdani.
Incredible. If the shoe were on the other foot and Mamdani, after losing in the primary, were running as an Independent, and received AOC's endorsement, I can't imagine the tidal wave of opprobrium that would rain down on her.
The best thing Tom Suozzi has going for him is that he replaced George Santos. Aside from this, his influence has little weight in the NYC Mayoral Race.
Yes, I remember Suozzi for years in the House was a notoriously difficult incumbent for the GOP to unseat. Even Santos himself challenged Suozzi back in 2020 and lost by 12.5% points.
If we can get someone else besides Suozzi in NY-03, great. If not, fine with him being in the House as long as it is one less seat to worry about in the name of Democrats winning back control over the House.
I remember being surprised that Israel gave up the seat. There were some initial concerns about Suozzi running to replace him, IIRC, because being voted out of a county executive post isn't exactly the best springboard to Congress.
I understand he has to keep distance from Mamdani in his Trump district. But he can't afford to stray too far in the the other direction and turn into a Sinema/Fetterman type.
I think AWildLibAppeared covered the main reason. I think on top of what they said, there's also a bit of wishcasting from the types of people and organizations that fund polling. A lot of them do not like Mamdani and are hoping to find a reality where he does not become mayor.
What's the correct amount of polling for this race? It seems to get a lot of attention in here as well, should we be criticized for talking about this race because the results won't change? It's the mid-mid term, not a whole lot of races are going on.
Dutch exit polls suggest a bit of a clusterfuck as voters atomize quite a bit between parties; far-right PVV loses a good bit to even further-right JA21 while the center-liberal D66 surges.
I suspect it's anti-establishment at the core. Which isn't a policy per se, but typical voters do not think of elections through the same lenses that people like us do. And there could still be policies attached to it, might be the stuff that the rich people are angriest about at its most basic.
Keep in mind Mamdani has also said he’s against defunding the police so he’s also trying to be mindful of common sense things that could otherwise divide Democrats and New Yorkers.
I am not commenting specifically on what Mamdani would do if he’s elected Mayor but from this breakthrough development than a week until the election, it’s a sign Mamdani can in fact have skills to bring opposing sides together. If he ends up being more of a uniter than a divider, that bolds well for him as mayor and for his political future beyond that.
I'm glad at least he realized the "defund the police" nonsense from the far left was a disaster politically. Its a tough spot politically if he turns into bland mayor, his supporters will be disappointed and he'll still be unpopular with surburbites
Good. The GOP started this redistricting mess, and they deserve any and all losses that come from it.
The way the amendment is written it is only temporary through 2030. They may want to draw a 8-3 or 9-2 clean map to set a baseline next decade.
California's is the same
They should at least allow an emergency clause to have the legislature draw the lines should other states gerrymander.
I actually emailed a 10D-1R map to my legislators. Hopefully they saw it.
For VA HoD is supermajority being defined as 60/100 or 67/100?
It takes 2/3rd to override a Governor's veto so 67/100 would be considered a supermajority.
Money isn't everything anymore but this is great to see
I'm still amazed that Youngkin wasn't able to coax a stronger Republican into the race than Winsome Earle-Sears. It's not like they were buddies or anything—the governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately!
How many people would try to convince a politician they are buddies with to run into an election that is likely to be a buzzsaw for their party for reasons entirely outside of control for anyone in state?
I'm not too surprised because the republican candidate this year was going to be thrown to the wolves regardless. The timing, political environment, and trends in Virginia make it worse than uphill.
If the current LG that he has minimal personal relationship with wants to try, it's no skin off his back.
It never was everything. We can remember many instances of candidates who tried to buy their way into office but were either vapid and/or of the wrong party to win. Huffington in California is one example that comes to mind.
If money wasn't at least *something* then there wouldn't be such a focus on fundraising.
Of course! And it's still something!
I misread your comment, apologies!
No problem!
God DAMN.
How did the GOP suck so bad at fundraising this time around? It's like the party didn't even try as much.
So in other words, what you are saying is that the GOP wants to give control of state government to Democrats and focus more on just electing a damn Attorney General.
That’s just bonkers! Hahaha
Look, as long as Democrats win elections in VA like they should everywhere else, that’s all that matters to me.
Let the GOP meltdown in VA if it means more Democrats get elected!
Not that this will likely amount to much, but on the off chance he gets ousted, good riddance.
Sometimes low-value assholes get knifed by GOP rivals simply because they’re assholes. Ryan Walters getting kicked upstairs because everyone in OK hated him is another example
Walters thought he could out-Trump Trump.
Turns out he couldn't.
I do appreciate the fact that his career imploded thanks to him being the one person in America who leaves Samsung TV on instead of just cycling over the to streaming app he actually wants
Is it just me, or does his appointed replacement seem to be surprisingly un-terrible, as far as Republicans go? He rescinded the Trump-bibles-in-classrooms shit, for starters.
I'm tired of unqualified right-wing ghouls in state superintendent positions (Walters in Oklahoma, Weaver in South Carolina, Horne—ugh!—in Arizona, etc.).
Tom Horne is very much a moderate compared to Shelli Boggs down in Maricopa. She's lucky her seat is up in presidential years, both she and Heap would have lost in 2022.
IL-09 hasn't had much polling but what little there has been has shown Biss with a solid lead by margins but not by absolute percent. It's exactly the kind of situation where this could put her into the lead. Which will depend a lot on how much traction the story gets and if she gets extra coverage from it.
God I hope not. Glad she’s standing up for immigrants but she shouldn’t be the congressperson from IL-9.
Yes, but she's quite possibly the least subtle carpetbagger in recent years along with Dr. Oz. No connection to Illinois before 2024, lives outside of the district, seemingly only running in the 9th because she thought the (rather progressive) incumbent was too old. If someone like her was running where I live, I'd feel genuinely insulted. You can't represent a community you don't understand.
Gonna have to leave that up to the voters in the district, though.
So THAT'S how elections work! Never would have figured it out otherwise.
as a resident of Evanston for three years for college, I think the district could do worse. I predated Biss' tenure as mayor, but he seems like the best choice, but a media savvy gen zer in a safe blue seat seems like it has the potential for some upside. (I'd vote for Biss, but would be happy with either)
This was posted late last night:
The Democratic leader of the Maryland Senate on Tuesday sent a letter to dozens of state lawmakers rejecting the party’s effort to redistrict in the state, bucking Democrats’ national effort to redraw congressional lines.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/28/maryland-redistricting-senate-president-bill-ferguson-00626808
Don't know. And maybe the caucus doesn't disagree with him. He maintains that the State Supreme Court may not uphold it and that it will risk becoming a dummymander.
5 of the seven justices were appointed by Larry Hogan.
The SCOMD is 5 Hogan appointees, 1 O'Malley appointee and 1 Moore appointee. Even the O'Malley appointee is not reliably liberal.
You can draw a map where every D represents their hometown, is sufficiently blue, and make the 1st light blue.
That sucks, but is a real hurdle. I'm at least mollified now by the fact VA can apparently act in time for 2026. There's more room for growth there.
The Democratic base should put the same pressure on him Trump is on states like Indiana.
It is not needed if the right Dem candidate would take on the current Republican congressman. Jake Day, the former mayor of the city of Salisbury on the eastern shore of Maryland could be that Dem candidate.
Still tough. It's R +8 and Trump +17. Would take a wave.
Wouldn't Jim Mathias be a stronger candidate? He represented the Senate district with Ocean City in it for a long time.
Maybe
Jake Day is currently the secretary for the state department of housing and community development and is well known in this role on the eastern shore. Both have history on the eastern shore
I heard some chatter last year about celebrity chef Jose Andres running as well
He's probably a DINO, only running as a dem because the nature of his state.
They can pass a constitutional amendment that include an 8-0 map and have it voted on next year, it won't be in place for 2026 but that is one way to do something without running afoul of the SCOMD.
NY-Gov: Your poll write up for the Stefanik-Delgado matchup is missing the Stefanik number :)
Fixed!
The fact that this Latonya Reeves lady was the only challenger for Omar that could be found (Ryan Winkler was being floated but he said no), while progressives have gotten Justin Pearson and are about to get Brad Lander, is certainly interesting.
And it looks like Pittsburgh Controller Rachel Heisler may have decided against Summer Lee, unless she’s keeping things quiet ahead of a late launch.
Ruben Diaz should move to aoc's district and try to primary her. Lol
Why would you want that?
I was being facetious
I've heard that she was being recruited by AIPAC.
Yes, Omar and Lee seem to be the only two squad members AIPAC tried to recruit challengers to. It looks like this cycle they aren’t landing their preferred candidates like they did in 2024
They sent out a letter about Jayapal too, but that didn’t go anywhere.
HI-02:
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2025/10/27/republican-state-senator-confirms-decision-run-congress/
State Senate Minority Leader Brenton Awa is running as a Republican against Dem Rep. Jill Tokuda. Ordinarily I wouldn’t mention something like this given the blue nature of the district, but Awa has a very interesting profile:
“Described as a maverick, unconventional, and hybrid Hawaiian, Awa cast more than 1,000 "no" votes over his first two legislative sessions and was the sole "no" vote on 10% of all bills passed during that time, unparalleled in recent history. Awa is the only Hawaii lawmaker with a "no gift" policy.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brenton_Awa
Given this profile, could Awa be a bigger threat than normal, or is he doomed as most GOP members would be here?
Short answer, no. It's a D+12 district in what could easily shape up to be a Dem-friendly election. Having an idiosyncratic profile isn't a silver bullet.
Good to know. Thanks!
No, but he is hot, and as is well established that's worth a few points in itself
apparently in his State Senate campaigns he pledged to neither campaign or accept donations. I'm not sure that would work in a federal election when you're already in an unfavorable district
Despite HI-02 getting to the right of HI-01 by pres margin last year, I still think HI-01 would be their better bet to find party splitters. There's little to no movement on the windward side of Oahu, and the other islands have too many down the line liberals. That said, Awa is going to easily carry everything from North Shore to the leeward coast on Oahu, as that side of the island becomes the new base of the HI GOP. Big change from the Lingle years.
Latonya Reeves’ day job is as a career probation officer. She’s also President-Elect of MCA, which is an organization advancing the interests of corrections personnel.
Points against her, in my opinion. Remember the NY prison guard strike, when they couldn’t use solitary confinement and raised hell over that?
FWIW:
#earlyvote numbers for three states where I have party registration, percentage point change in Dem party registration among early voters, same day before the election comparison to 2024 general:
PA: +10.3 points
NJ: +7.5 points
CT: +7.3 points
https://bsky.app/profile/electproject.bsky.social/post/3m4drjcvbmk2p
What's on tap in CT?
Just local elections I believe.
https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1983284165333369227
Cameron Kasky of the March for Our Lives has officially filed paperwork for a bid for NY-12, Nadler’s old seat.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in The Bulwark's offices when Kasky started talking about running for Congress. I'm sure his sidekick on FYPod, Tim Miller has encouraged him to do it. Also was this the reason why The Bulwark brought Jack Cocchiarella onboard so FYPod can continue in Kasky's absence while he's running for Congress?
Representative Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who represents parts of Long Island and Queens, endorsed Cuomo for mayor on Wednesday, breaking with many leaders from his party who are supporting Mamdani.
Harris won Gillen’s seat! It rlly seems like she’s just being islamophobic for shiggles.
I think it's Islamophobic to baselessly accuse a Muslim candidate of supporting a terror group but wtv
Incredible. If the shoe were on the other foot and Mamdani, after losing in the primary, were running as an Independent, and received AOC's endorsement, I can't imagine the tidal wave of opprobrium that would rain down on her.
Profile in courage. Takes real guts to buck the party line and endorse a sexual predator.
And an anti-Muslim bigot.
The best thing Tom Suozzi has going for him is that he replaced George Santos. Aside from this, his influence has little weight in the NYC Mayoral Race.
He also preceded Santos...the only reason Santos was in the house was because suozzi callously challenged hochul from the right
I still think the guy Santos defeated in 2022 (Robert Zimmerman) would have been a HUGE improvement over Suozzi.
What was Robert Zimmerman's candidacy like? I don't remember much about his campaign but I got the impression he was not a Suozzi type.
Totally drowned out by Zeldin and Santos, but seemed like a genuinely decent and humble guy. He would have won the seat in 2018 or 2020.
I was surprised he didn't win in 2022. It wasn't like Santos did a real campaign in the first place.
Fun fact, that election was the first election in US history where both major party candidates were openly gay.
Yes, I remember Suozzi for years in the House was a notoriously difficult incumbent for the GOP to unseat. Even Santos himself challenged Suozzi back in 2020 and lost by 12.5% points.
If we can get someone else besides Suozzi in NY-03, great. If not, fine with him being in the House as long as it is one less seat to worry about in the name of Democrats winning back control over the House.
I wish former Rep. and bookstore owner Steve Israel would run - he's an establishment liberal, but he is not center right like Suozzi.
I remember being surprised that Israel gave up the seat. There were some initial concerns about Suozzi running to replace him, IIRC, because being voted out of a county executive post isn't exactly the best springboard to Congress.
Israel is 67, so it's fine that he's retired from Congress.
He also used to be the Nassau County Executive.
MMW, Gillen who called him "pro-Hamas Zohran unfit to hold any office" and Goldman who said he felt unsafe due to Mamdani will be next.
I understand that Gillen and Suozzi's districts hate him, but can't they quietly oppose him while not endorsing against the party ticket.
Goldman probably won't. Primary challenge concerns.
And he’s not Gillen or Suozzi.
They can loudly oppose him, but they shouldn't libel him.
Well, to be sure, Zohran is toxic on Long Island.
I understand he has to keep distance from Mamdani in his Trump district. But he can't afford to stray too far in the the other direction and turn into a Sinema/Fetterman type.
That's what he is, at least rhetorically.
That's absolutely on brand for him.
Q releases an NYC Mayor poll: Mamdani 43%, Cuomo 33%, Sliwa 14%, and 9% undecided/no response.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3940
I think the dynamics of the mayoral race have caused it to get the most interest. And ultimately, many of these pollsters want attention.
If they were the ones to show the race tightening, they'd get a lot of media attention.
I think AWildLibAppeared covered the main reason. I think on top of what they said, there's also a bit of wishcasting from the types of people and organizations that fund polling. A lot of them do not like Mamdani and are hoping to find a reality where he does not become mayor.
What's the correct amount of polling for this race? It seems to get a lot of attention in here as well, should we be criticized for talking about this race because the results won't change? It's the mid-mid term, not a whole lot of races are going on.
"Sliwa"
"crank"
Whoops, dyslexic moment! Thank you.
Once again, Silwa, thank you for your service in preventing Cuomo from being elected.
Dutch exit polls suggest a bit of a clusterfuck as voters atomize quite a bit between parties; far-right PVV loses a good bit to even further-right JA21 while the center-liberal D66 surges.
Full results may not be clear for a while
As I understand it yes
NYC Mayoral Race
Wow. If Zohran Mamdani is able to win over an association that was highly critical of his policies to begin with, that’s a good sign of his campaign.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=us_r9Lmh0ew
I suspect it's anti-establishment at the core. Which isn't a policy per se, but typical voters do not think of elections through the same lenses that people like us do. And there could still be policies attached to it, might be the stuff that the rich people are angriest about at its most basic.
Keep in mind Mamdani has also said he’s against defunding the police so he’s also trying to be mindful of common sense things that could otherwise divide Democrats and New Yorkers.
I am not commenting specifically on what Mamdani would do if he’s elected Mayor but from this breakthrough development than a week until the election, it’s a sign Mamdani can in fact have skills to bring opposing sides together. If he ends up being more of a uniter than a divider, that bolds well for him as mayor and for his political future beyond that.
I'm glad at least he realized the "defund the police" nonsense from the far left was a disaster politically. Its a tough spot politically if he turns into bland mayor, his supporters will be disappointed and he'll still be unpopular with surburbites
OH: Likely deal struck on new map to minimize losses for Dems: https://nitter.poast.org/OPoliticsguru/status/1983732664625721607#m
Other than the 1st, it's about as good as they can get under current circumstances.
With that map in 2026 Sykes is def favored, Landsman should manage fairly easy, and Kaptur still has a real shot. Dems should take the deal
Landsman would have a tough race but could hold on. Kaptur is gone with that map.
Isn't there still an effort to force a non-partisan commission to redistrict through a referendum?
There was one on the ballot in 2024 but it failed 54-46, mostly due to a deceptive ballot summary imo. Not sure if there are plans to try again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1