John Cornyn searches for an upset in brutal Republican primary runoff
We preview a Texas-sized election night across the Lone Star State
Texas voters return to the polls on Tuesday for primary runoffs in contests where no candidate took a majority of the vote in the first round of voting on March 3, and the Republican battle for U.S. Senate once again occupies center stage.
The conclusion of the contest between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, though, is far from the only major race to watch in the Lone Star State. Both parties will finalize their nominees for the U.S. House under the new congressional gerrymander that Donald Trump pressured Republicans to pass last summer, as well as for key statewide offices.
Below, you’ll find our guide to the top races to watch in Texas. You can find an interactive map from Dave’s Redistricting App for the new congressional map.
When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
Polls close in most of the state at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time in the portion of Texas located in the Central time zone, which includes about 97% of the state’s population. Polls close in the rest of the state (a much smaller region in the El Paso area that’s in the Mountain time zone) one hour later.
And please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night!
TX-Sen (R) (56-42 Trump)
Republican Sen. John Cornyn was already the underdog against Attorney General Ken Paxton even before Trump endorsed the challenger a week ahead of the runoff, and the incumbent’s prospects are bleak going into the second round.
While Senate leaders have long feared that Paxton, a far-right extremist who has survived numerous scandals, could give Democrats a better chance to win their first statewide race in Texas since 1994, Trump did not heed their calls to endorse Cornyn.
Cornyn’s well-funded allies, though, are still hoping their huge spending advantage and attacks on Paxton will give the veteran senator, who has long had an uneasy relationship at best with his state’s conservative base, the chance to pull off a surprise.
The incumbent’s side is continuing to hammer the many scandals surrounding Paxton, with one recent ad warning, “This man cheated on the mother of his children.” Texas’ right-wing voters, though, have shrugged off these sorts of attacks against Paxton over the years and remained loyal to their attorney general.
The winner will take on state Rep. James Talarico, who won the Democratic nomination outright in March, in what will be a closely watched—and very expensive—general election.
TX-09 (R) (59-40 Trump)
Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott are backing opposing candidates in the Republican primary runoff for an open Democratic-held seat that the GOP radically gerrymandered to make it a near-certain flip.
Trump’s choice is Army veteran Alex Mealer, who lost a tight 2022 race to lead Harris County and then spent the better part of a year unsuccessfully challenging the result in court. Abbott is pulling for state Rep. Briscoe Cain, who chairs the state’s branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus in the Texas House.
Mealer finished first with 37% in the first round of voting for this Houston-area constituency, while Cain outpaced former U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman 31-17 for second. Stockman subsequently endorsed Cain for the second round.
Mealer, though, remains the favorite on Tuesday. Outside groups, including the hardline anti-tax Club For Growth, have spent over $3 million to boost her or attack Cain during the runoff, while Cain’s backers have spent just a fraction of that. A University of Houston poll conducted in early May also showed Mealer ahead 50-41.
TX-18 (D) (77-22 Harris)
The Democratic runoff is a choice between incumbents with very different resumes: Rep. Al Green, who is 78 and has represented the Houston area since 2005, and Rep. Christian Menefee, a 38-year-old who just won a special election in January.
