Morning Digest: New GOP map dismembers Black district in Memphis, carving city in three

Republicans are also doing multiple favors for scandal-plagued Rep. Andy Ogles

Republican-drawn map of proposed Tennessee congressional districts (credit: Stephen Wolf / The Downballot)

Leading Off

TN Redistricting

Tennessee Republicans unveiled a new congressional gerrymander on Wednesday that would shatter the state’s only majority-Black district and ensure that Donald Trump would have won every seat by at least 20 points.

The map cracks the predominantly Black city of Memphis—which for more than a century has anchored a single, compact district—in three almost perfectly equal pieces, submerging Black voters in a trio of districts dominated by whites.

Under the map adopted in 2022, most of Memphis was contained in the 9th District, which had long been home to a large Black population that turned into a majority following the 1980 census. It’s also been safely blue for decades and, until last week, enjoyed the protection of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibited lawmakers from diluting the power of Black voters.

That district, however, bears little resemblance to the constituency with the same number in the GOP’s new proposal. This overhauled version of the 9th instead stretches from South Memphis 200 miles to the east along the state’s southern border before jinking north to the exurbs of Nashville. Less than a third of residents would remain in the district.

By taking in so much rural territory, the Black voting-age population in the revamped 9th would sink from 60% to 38%. It would also become much redder. The current 9th backed Kamala Harris by an overwhelming 71-27 margin while the new iteration would have instead voted for Donald Trump 60-39.

Rep. Steve Cohen, a white Democrat who’s held the district since 2007 thanks to strong support from Black voters, told Semafor on Wednesday that he’d forge ahead with his bid for reelection no matter what, but his odds would be long. The 76-year-old Cohen also faces a serious primary challenge from a much younger Black candidate, state Rep. Justin Pearson, though Pearson has yet to discuss his plans publicly.

The 9th is not the only Memphis-to-Nashville contortion.

Four years ago, Republicans performed similar cartographic surgery on the Democratic-held 5th District, which for years had covered the entire city of Nashville. Just as their new plan splits Memphis in three, their 2022 map divvied Nashville among a troika of districts.

All were intended to be safely Republican, including a reconfigured version of the 5th. But Republicans have nonetheless found themselves sweating the district, thanks to an endless series of scandals and extremely poor fundraising on the part of GOP Rep. Andy Ogles.

To save Ogles, the new 5th divests itself of Nashville and retreats to the exurbs. It then heads west to gobble up large swaths of rural territory before sidling down the Mississippi River to snatch its designated share of Memphis. (Along the way, it also snags around 40% of Clarksville, Tennessee’s fifth-largest city, swingy turf that previously was entirely inside the 7th.)

This massive transformation means that fewer than one-in-five inhabitants of the old 5th would still live in the new version. It also boosts Trump’s performance in the district, from 58-40 to 61-38.

But that’s not the only favor Republicans are eager to do for Ogles, who also learned on Tuesday that Trump’s Department of Justice was preparing to drop its investigation into allegations he committed campaign finance fraud.

The map bifurcates the city of Columbia in Maury County and leaves the home of Ogles’ top Democratic challenger, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, in the new 9th. An undeterred Molder, however, said of the GOP’s proposal, “I’m not backing down. Game on!”

And with Nashville’s Davidson County getting excised from the district, the other leading Democrat, Metro Councilor Mike Cortese, is now in the 4th District. (The 4th grabs up many of the pieces of Nashville that had been in the 5th, while the rest of the city remains in the 6th and 7th.)

But that’s not all. Because the map also cuts Williamson County—located between Maury and Davidson—into two pieces, Ogles’ opponent in the Republican primary, former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, also gets relocated to the 9th. (Candidates for Congress don’t need to live in the district they represent, but most do.)

Finally, another section of Nashville would get incorporated into the conservative 8th District, which had included a small slice of the city that now grows much larger. Because the 8th also hands off rural counties to the 5th and 9th, it gets considerably more blue—yet still remains safely red.

The current incarnation of the district voted for Trump by an imposing 70-29 margin, while the new version would have handed him a 59-39 win. Republican Rep. David Kustoff should therefore have little trouble winning another term, though around 40% of inhabitants would be new to him.

With supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, Republicans will easily be able to pass their turbocharged gerrymander. And unlike their counterparts in Alabama (see our AL Redistricting item below) and Louisiana, they won’t have to run roughshod over their election calendar, since Tennessee’s primaries aren’t until August.

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The Downballot Podcast

GOP gerrymandering just keeps getting worse

With the demise of the Voting Rights Act, Republicans are racing like mad to dismantle Black districts across the South. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the latest developments, including Donald Trump’s successful ouster of Indiana Republicans who opposed his drive to gerrymander their state, plus GOP efforts to impose new maps in Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee just six months before Election Day.

And just how did we get here? Kevin Morris, a senior research fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice, tells us all about the history of the Supreme Court’s efforts to undermine voting rights, from Reconstruction through the Roberts court. Since 2013, SCOTUS has repeatedly chipped away at the VRA, with Callais serving as the final blow. Morris warns that the gravest effects are likely to be felt at the state and local level, which have yet to receive the attention they deserve.

Redistricting Roundup

AL Redistricting

Alabama’s Republican-dominated state House passed a bill on Wednesday that would allow the state to retroactively cancel its May 19 House primaries and conduct new ones if a federal court permits it to use a map that lawmakers approved in 2023 to avoid drawing a second majority-Black district.

The legislature enacted that plan after a three-judge panel barred the state from using the map it adopted in 2021 for violating the Voting Rights Act. The invalidated 2021 map featured just one district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidates, the Birmingham-based 7th, which was first used in the 1992 elections thanks to an earlier VRA lawsuit.

But the court swiftly rejected the updated 2023 map, finding that it still violated the VRA. Like the 2021 map it replaced, the new plan kept the 7th as its only predominantly Black district. Its redrawn 2nd District, meanwhile, failed to comply with the VRA because it had a voting-age Black population of just 39.9% and would have almost certainly elected a white Republican to Congress.

To finally remedy the problem, the court imposed a map drawn by an independent expert that gave the 2nd a Black majority. When it was first used in 2024, the district led to the election of former Justice Department official Shomari Figures, a Black Democrat.

Now, should the courts lift the injunction on the 2023 map, Alabama will likely hold do-over primaries in four of its seven congressional districts this year (the court-appointed expert made no changes to the state’s versions of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts). Any rerun primaries would not feature runoffs.

The only question is just how quickly the courts act. Alabama’s new law permits new primaries only if officials have enough time to certify those elections by Aug. 26, since any later would risk interfering with the November general elections.

Assuming the 2023 map comes into effect, though, Figures’ hometown of Mobile would be placed entirely within the implacably red 1st District. He could potentially seek reelection in the 2nd, though he’d face difficult odds, as Donald Trump would have carried it 57-42. Figures has yet to publicly address his plans.

Senate

MI-Sen

Rep. Haley Stevens unveiled an endorsement from former Sen. Debbie Stabenow on Wednesday ahead of the August Democratic primary for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Stabenow, who held the state’s other seat from 2001 until her retirement last year, is backing Stevens over state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Every poll that’s been released this year has shown a tight race, and there’s no consensus which candidate, if any, might have the advantage.

House

FL-09

Former state Rep. Jason Fischer is interested in seeking the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Rep. Darren Soto in the radically redrawn 9th District, Florida Politics reports.

The site previously reported on Monday that Fischer has been considering running to replace retiring GOP Rep. Daniel Webster in the 11th District. Fischer, who serves as chief of staff to Rep. Randy Fine, has yet to speak about his plans publicly.

Other Republicans have been eyeing the race to take on Soto, who has said he will seek reelection in a Central Florida constituency that Donald Trump would have carried 58-41 in 2024. No major names, however, have announced yet that they’ll run for the new version of this district.

FL-16, FL-14

Christian charter school founder Eddie Speir said Tuesday that he would continue his bid for Florida’s open 16th District rather than campaign against Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in the redrawn 14th District.

Speir, who waged an unsuccessful primary campaign against GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan in 2024, remains the underdog in the August primary for the conservative constituency Buchanan is giving up after two decades in office. Donald Trump is backing Sydney Gruters, the former executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation and the wife of RNC chair Joe Gruters.

MD-05

Del. Nicole Williams said Tuesday that she was dropping out of next month’s packed and expensive Democratic primary for Maryland’s 5th District. Williams, who acknowledged that “winning this fight would require resources that this campaign simply doesn’t have,” did not endorse any of the other candidates running to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Steney Hoyer.

Poll Pile

• AL-Sen (R): Cygnal for Gray Television and Alabama Daily News:

  • Barry Moore: 36, Steve Marshall: 25, Jared Hudson: 25.

• IA-Sen (D): Public Policy Polling for Josh Turek:

  • Josh Turek: 53, Zach Wahls: 27.

  • Unreleased April poll: 41-23 Turek.

• KY-Sen (R): Public Opinion Strategies for Keep America Great PAC (pro-Andy Barr):

  • Andy Barr: 43, Daniel Cameron: 24, Nate Morris: 9.

  • The poll was in the field May 3-5. Morris dropped out on May 1, and both Morris and Donald Trump endorsed Barr that same day.

• LA-Sen (R): BDPC for Alton Ashy (pro-Julia Letlow):

  • Julia Letlow: 33, John Fleming: 21, Bill Cassidy (inc): 21.

  • March: Letlow: 29, Fleming: 24, Cassidy: 20.

• LA-Sen (R runoff): BDPC:

  • Letlow: 51, Cassidy (inc): 28. (March: 50-24 Letlow)

  • Fleming: 47, Cassidy (inc): 30. (49-26 Fleming)

  • Letlow: 42, Fleming: 31. (34-33 Letlow)

• AL-Gov (R): Cygnal for Gray Television and Alabama Daily News:

  • Tommy Tuberville: 65, Ken McFeeters: 7, Will Santivasci: 3.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Impact Research for Matt Mahan:

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 23, Steve Hilton (R): 23, Tom Steyer (D): 14, Chad Bianco (R): 11, Matt Mahan (D): 10, Katie Porter (D): 9, other candidates 1% or less.

  • Unreleased April poll: Hilton (R): 25, Steyer (D): 16, Porter (D): 14, Bianco (R): 10, Mahan (D): 8, Becerra (D): 7.

• IA-AG: GSG for the Democratic Attorneys General Association:

  • Brenna Bird (R-inc): 45, Nate Willems (D): 43.

  • The poll was conducted April 6-9.

In Tuesday’s Digest, we incorrectly identified the district that Jason Fischer is reportedly interested in. Florida Politics reported that Fischer is considering running for Florida’s 11th District, not the 16th.