200 Comments
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May 7
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Henrik's avatar

Those are some impressive bacon strips! Also darkly hilarious to me that the more conservative parts of E Wash wind up in bluer districts, including my libertarian-leaning parents being put back in with Redmond (where they lived) when they moved to Walla Walla outskirts haha

Guy Cohen's avatar

Can you show me the 8-0 Colorado and 6-0 Oregon?

michaelflutist's avatar

I'm really glad you're looking positively toward what can be done, because I find the destruction of civil rights and democratic governance very depressing. Also, let's not be surprised if the corrupt Republicans on the Supreme Court find some basis to annul Democratic gerrymandering efforts because they're Democratic.

Morgan Whitacre's avatar

Then at that point, we no longer have a country. Succession would be what I would push if that happens. Yes that would be Civil War, but so be it.

michaelflutist's avatar

I think I'll decline public comment about that, except to say that I doubt there will be a United States of America that includes all 50 of the current states at the end of the century unless the country is a dictatorship. I just don't think it's tenable for California to be subject to the whims of voters in tiny-population states like Wyoming. The Electoral College, a powerful Senate and gerrymandering have got to go.

Morgan Whitacre's avatar

Well, and what I would’ve led with after I pondered it some more is that this would be a last resort — if judges could not be added, AND we could not take full power to change things. All of this could still change and even though it looks like the court has absolute power right now doing work for Republicans that might not always be true.

Zack from the SFV's avatar

Secession, not succession. I have mixed feelings about it. I identify much more as a Californian than as a U.S. American, but I worry about issues related to a breakup (water rights, trade, water availability, continuation of Social Security and Medicare, water and agricultural issues, military and diplomatic issues and water, among other issues.)

Morgan Whitacre's avatar

Damn voice-to-text misunderstood the word I wanted, and when I’m on the move, I have no time to spellcheck. But yes secession.

Wolfpack Dem's avatar

just so long as VA and NC get to be on the good team this time.

SC/GA would be the real dilemma.

the lurking ecologist's avatar

SC would lead the secession movement, just like in 1860 and 1775ish.

Guy Cohen's avatar

No they don’t. The VRA ruling is a double edged sword. If the courts can’t strike down GOP gerrymanders they can’t do the same to Dems either?

Zack from the SFV's avatar

The U.S. Extreme Court can do whatever the bleep it wants. Its power is unchecked at the moment, but hopefully not forever...

AnthonySF's avatar

Not a legal expert at all, but there was some back & forth on Twitter last night about how Dems may not be able to dismantle their own VRA districts beacuse of intent but the GOP could. Not sure how realistic that is, but this court is nuts and will impose whatever they want.

Guy Cohen's avatar

I haven't seen that thread.

John Carr's avatar

lol that’s ridiculous.

stevk's avatar

Great work on this! Best believe I'll be all over my state rep and senator here about doing this...

JazElections's avatar

I see what you guys were going for, but I think a better word than "dismember" could have been used for the headline. I don't have a suggestion to what else could be said, though.

David Meer's avatar

Could you spotlight Ohio's 15th CD? Don Leonard, a progressive, won a close primary Tuesday. Does he have any chance in the general?

JazElections's avatar

They had a headline item on April 28 talking about spending from national Democrats in the race. It could flip in a really big wave with coattails from Acton and Brown.

Yesterday, they characterized Leonard's win over Adam Miller as an upset, as most of the spending went to Miller.

ClimateHawk's avatar

Leonard voter here.

D S's avatar

Do you think Leonard has a better chance in the general than Miller would have had? My understanding of Columbus suburbs is that their generally somewhat well off and moderate, although I'm only really familiar with the northern suburbs.

JazElections's avatar

https://www.mlive.com/news/2026/05/longest-serving-us-mayor-mackinacs-margaret-doud-elected-for-51st-time.html

51 year incumbent Margaret Doud was reelected as mayor of Mackinac Island, Michigan on Tuesday. She is the longest serving mayor in the United States.

Doud received a formal recognition from then-Sen. Debbie Stabenow, then-Gov. Jennifer Granholm and then-Rep. Bart Stupak back in 2005 when she reached 30 years in office.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

stupak, now there's a name i'd love to have never known

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May 7
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JazElections's avatar

We have not. Dan Benishek served it from 2011 until 2017 when he retired due to poor health (he died in 2021), and septuagenarian Jack Bergman, a noted Louisiana resident, has "served" it since.

the lurking ecologist's avatar

I imagine she excels at cutting ribbons.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Considering how historically preservation-minded the island is, I actually doubt that, lol

Hudson Democrat's avatar

a thought: we all seem relatively active in our local political communities. Between now and November we undoubtedly will all do our part to turn out the vote/donate/do whatever we do to help.

Beyond our typical efforts, for those that live in safe blue seats, I think we should all make a point to repeatedly call/write our local state reps (if you are lucky to have democratic state reps like me) pushing for redrawing ahead of 2028 to counter the VRA gutting. Those that are lucky enough to be on speaking professional terms with their reps take it a step further and bring it up at fundraisers/meet and greets etc. I'm in LD 32 of New Jersey, so I have amenable legislators, but always worth pushing the need for redraws by word of mouth/letter writing to electeds.

Benderdome's avatar

Here in MA it's already 9-0

A\/8R's avatar

Do democrats still have a chance at midterms

MPC's avatar

Yes. Any more questions?

Lune's avatar

Is the pope Catholic

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Depends, are we asking JD Vance?

Techno00's avatar

Quick question - if the GOP eliminates all the VRA districts, the Dems are able to redistrict in all of their targets, and the GOP respond in kind, what is the partisan makeup of the House roughly?

Hudson Democrat's avatar

we're up by like ten depending on how the races in states where gerrymandering seems unlikely, i.e. , michigan and pa

JazElections's avatar

You can gerrymander PA to have a safe blue seat in Allentown/Scranton and a blue-leaning one in Harrisburg/York/Lancaster. Probably a net gain of 1-2 seats, not including Fitzpatrick.

Guy Cohen's avatar

Just give Fitzpatrick a bluer part of Montco. PA-08 is tough is Monroe is used to make the 7th bluer, but it could snake into State College. Making one a sink while conceding the other is also a possibility.

stevk's avatar

This makes sense because we've been fighting with one hand tied behind our backs for years, so undoing all commissions etc. will logically benefit us more than them, since they've been maxxing out a bunch of states for a while now.

Mark's avatar

Two observations that may or may not have been discussed to some capacity:

The biggest long-term liability of the Voting Rights Act being thrown out and Southern states redrawing maps to become impenetrably Republican is a collective collapse in Black turnout. Why would any Democrat of any race bother to show up to vote in Tennessee or Alabama if every single race of consequence is predetermined? This seems poised to hurt Democrats even in local races in places that are currently overwhelmingly Democrat, as disproportionately black and Democratic voters will sit out elections at every level.

I suspect Republicans will dig in to make sure these new maps are enacted by the 2026 midterms, regardless of existing candidate filing deadlines, and that the courts will have their backs when they do. Given that we're moving closer to a requirement of 20 Democratic House gains to offset their losses to redistricting, at what point will it become more realistic for the Democrats to win back the Senate than the House?

Henrik's avatar

Letting the south secede and not trying to stop them this time gets more and more appealing by the day

Marliss Desens's avatar

When the South seceded in 1860, it was a minority of the population that advocated doing so. That would be true today as well. I read a fascinating article a while back on Georgia residents who went north and fought for the union in the Civil War.

Greg Taylor's avatar

I remember learning in college that voter suppression tactics against the black community often drove up their turnout. I hope that's again the case this year.

MPC's avatar
May 7Edited

Yeah. Georgia Rs passing a sweeping elections bill in early 2021 didn't keep voters from re-electing Sen Raphael Warnock to a full 6-year term the following year.

An awful GOP candidate helped too.

FFFFFF's avatar

"Why would any Democrat of any race bother to show up to vote in Tennessee or Alabama if every single race of consequence is predetermined?"

You mean like they are right now, and have been for the past 15 years?

Mark's avatar

Fifteen years? Democrats started turning out in 2011?

It's not complicated. When there are no competitive races by design at the state or congressional level, state parties atrophy, voter registration drives lag, and it becomes harder for formerly "base" voters to be motivated to do anything. The next thing you know, you start seeing Republicans win mayoral races in Montgomery or city council races in Memphis.

FFFFFF's avatar

No, the Republicans gerrymandered all of Tennessee and Alabama's congressional disctricts to be non-competitive. Going from 1-2 safe Democratic seats to zero doesn't change that fact.

Mark's avatar

There are currently three Democratic-held seats in Tennessee and Alabama. Next year at the latest, there will be zero.

FFFFFF's avatar

And they will still be just as non-competitive as before.

Mark's avatar

"They"? The three seats I'm talking about were noncompetitive....for Republicans. Democrats won them in landslides. They're about to be noncompetitive for Democrats after the maps are redrawn. Are we even talking about the same thing here?

ClimateHawk's avatar

Mayor and City Council are not inconsequential.

Guy Cohen's avatar

I don’t think they’ll get most of their new maps in place until 2028, when Democrats will have countered with maps of their own.

FeingoldFan's avatar

How are we moving close to needing 20 seats to gain the House? Even if Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Missouri all eliminate every blue district in their states, that’s just 8 more seats for Republicans, which when added onto the existing gerrymanders I’m pretty sure just gives them a +9 advantage overall, which would mean we’d need to gain 15 seats to win.

Guy Cohen's avatar

And there’s been no serious talk about Missouri going 8-0.

Mark's avatar

For starters, I'm not convinced we've seen the last from Ohio, Indiana, and Kansas as the redistricting wars continue to escalate.

John Carr's avatar

Republicans in Ohio would need a referendum to pass statewide in order to reopen redistricting before the 2031 census.

FeingoldFan's avatar

Ah, I thought you were talking about what might happen by 2026. If we’re talking about future cycles, we’ll respond with our own gerrymandering in New York, Colorado, and other states and for the most part it will even out. And ideally we’ll have a majority in Congress and the presidency in 2028, we’ll ban gerrymandering nationwide, and we’ll never have to worry about this again.

John Carr's avatar

And if a Lieberman/Sinema gets in the way this time, they need to be threatened with severe consequences. Such as taking away a chairmanship, any pet projects, foreign aid they want, removing any family members from non civil service protected federal positions, etc. It really is do or die this time.

Mike in MD's avatar

Don't think we need nearly that many (and this year so far it looks like we'd probably get them anyways) but he has a point about the redistricting doom loop. We of course can and in many states either have or likely will do so--though in a lot of those we have to wait until at least 2027--but I can't be the only one who doesn't relish many more states having one-party House delegations with crazy looking maps.

But sometimes you have to fight fire with fire, and Democrats have been much more able and willing to do that than most (including the WH) would have predicted a year ago. Some sort of national gerrymandering or redistricting reform may ultimately be the only way out, but will probably require a blue trifecta (if anyone has any realistic ideas of a bipartisan way to do that, we'd all like to hear them.)

Henrik's avatar

The only way to break the cycle is scorched earth maps against the GOP in the short term so we can pass anti-gerrymandering laws long term. The GOP apparently only respects force and it’s time they receive a taste of their own medicine (which being little entitled cowards rhat they are they will certainly whine incessantly about)

Miguel Parreno's avatar

I don't know if any of your Californians/Angelinos watched the Gubernatorial/Mayoral Debate last night but it was a complete and total shit show all around. People talking over each other. The Republicans all acting Trumpian, particularly that knob Spencer Pratt. Unfortunately, the Democrats were, for the most part, unimpressive themselves. Villaraigosa showed why he didn't belong on that stage. Becerra took the safe route and is basically playing not to lose. Steyer is shoring up my support for him because I think he might actually shake things up as the Class Traitor. I'm most disappointed in Nithya Raman. She just seemed on the defensive the entire debate, timid and just not ready for primetime. It's a shame and I'll still probably vote for her over Bass because I cannot take Mayor Spencer Pratt. It's a shame that in one of the most Democratic states in the nation we have absolutely ZERO superstars. (Except Kenneth Mejia IMO who should have run for Mayor instead).

JazElections's avatar

Does Pratt have a serious chance of winning?

Miguel Parreno's avatar

No. But it has a higher chance with Bass IMO due to the perception of her handling of the fires last year and Pratt can keep hitting her with it. I'd just prefer not to chance it. Honestly I have a guy I knew from college who works for a Conservative think thank and he actually believes Pratt will win which signals to me that he has no shot. But again. I'd prefer not to chance it.

Zack from the SFV's avatar

I also was not especially impressed with the three mayoral candidates, but Pratt really pissed me off. He kept calling homeless people dangerous drug addicts. Some are, but not the 90%+ that he claimed. (Or was that Bianco in the guv debate? It is a blur). There are many druggies, others who are naturally mentally ill and many more who lost a housing situation and/or ran out of money. I used to be homeless, though not in Los Angeles and a long time ago (1980s). The Repubs never are willing to admit that the economic system fails many in this country. They think that any one experiencing hard times has only themself to blame.

I haven't filled out my ballot yet, but now am leaning towards voting for Raman to keep Pratt out of the runoff. I don't think Bass will get the 50%+1 she needs to avoid a runoff so this goes to November. I am really cranky this morning so I will sign off for now; maybe I will be back this evening. I have work to do now.

Miguel Parreno's avatar

They're all pretty interchangeable fear mongers with the same talking points. The issue is totally systemic but that would require Republicans being honest with themselves that the economic system we have in place isn't working and it's because of their policies giving everything the corporations and billionaires want that's causing it.

I'm looking at Raman, Steyer for the big races.

Henrik's avatar

Wild to me that “synonym for shit boyfriend” Spencer Pratt is running a credible insurgent campaign for mayor

Miguel Parreno's avatar

It really goes to show just the absolute dearth of quality candidates in this state. Most of our issues here in California are downstream of national economic policy but you see the Dems in charge for 16 years and things have gotten worse, people unfortunately, will listen.

S Kolb's avatar

16+ million reg voters in CA and that is the best the parties can do...those 2 republican gov candidates don't even believe in the concept of Democracy

Lune's avatar

I understand the hesitation regarding Steyer, but he does seem to stick by his principles. I think he's closer to a JB Pritzker-like than people give him credit for.

Zero Cool's avatar

If Steyer, a billionaire, can advocate for a billionaire tax when Governor Newsom, who makes considerably less income and wealth cannot, that’s saying a lot.

stevk's avatar

To be fair, I don't think Newsom's objection is rooted in his own finances. You may not agree with his rationale, but I don't think it's based in self-interest.

Zero Cool's avatar

No, I wasn’t thinking about self-interest. I was just merely pointing out that it’s really silly that a billionaire has more balls than Newsom does in tax principles.

Newsom’s thought too tied to special business interests. Of course, those such as myself who lived in San Francisco at the time Newsom was Mayor have known that about him from the beginning.

JazElections's avatar

https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/local/mayor-vi-lyles-will-not-seek-reelection-resigns-from-office-charlotte-nc/275-d54e9948-4596-414e-82fe-5f36d612020a

Charlotte, NC mayor Vi Lyles has announced her resignation, effective end of June. I imagine there will be a plethora of electeds that will consider a bid to replace her.

JanusIanitos's avatar

Her stated reasoning is to spend time with her grandchildren. Very odd justification to resign from office partway through a term, instead of serving what I presume is half a year for the remainder of the term.

Mr. Rochester's avatar

Makes you wonder if she received some bad medical news that she doesn't want to talk about.

Henrik's avatar

Appealing job in a city that seems pretty easy to run compared to some

S Kolb's avatar

maybe what is happening on all levels of American politics is that the really talented people do not want anything to do with running for office because of the nature of the beast!! trump and his minions are doing a great job of destroying everything including the political arena. I completely agree with Miguel P about the California "debates".

Henrik's avatar

Oh I think that’s been apparent for much longer than just the Trump era. There are no incentives for talented and smart people to get into politics, which is increasingly just the “tyranny of the mediocre and the aggrieved.” The consumption of politics as an outlet of culture war and grievances and the incentive structure for political media to encourage it has completely divorced politics from policy, that which it is indeed meant to actually influence

S Kolb's avatar

true but trump gave it a big push

Henrik's avatar

He was certainly an accelerant, yes

JanusIanitos's avatar

I know a lot of people disagree with me on this, but I think this problem is exacerbated heavily by how comparatively poorly politicians are paid.

The kind of person that can get elected to congress is often the kind of person that has the connections and skills to make more than $200k/year, with less traveling and no need to maintain two residences.

That's not even touching on state legislator salaries. NH is the most egregious and pays $100/year plus mileage reimbursement. I doubt that pay comes close to covering lunch for the days they're in session.

alienalias's avatar

Well, NH has like 250 too many members of its state legislature lol

Miguel Parreno's avatar

I actually don't disagree with you there. I 100% believe politicians should be paid more. Low salaries breed corruption and leaves out working class people from the legislative process. I don't want to see more lawyers in Congress.

Buckeye73's avatar

You are absolutely correct. Now try convincing the average low info voter that politicians are underpaid.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

"I doubt that pay comes close to covering lunch for the days they're in session."

They do get a per diem when the legislature is in session, I believe

stevk's avatar

Remember the Onion headline after Obama won the presidency? "America gives black man world's worst job?

Miguel Parreno's avatar

That's why I feel like Mamdani was such a breath of fresh air. I mean sure, maybe superstar inspirational politicians are few and far between. I was lucky that I was able to vote for Obama in my first Presidential election. We need people who believe in the promise of government and make a difference in people's lives and are willing to do what it takes to make that happen.

Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Cornyn Super PAC did a series of polls of possible TX-Sen ballots to show Cornyn beating generic Dem, but Paxton losing to generic Dem: https://nitter.poast.org/birenbomb/status/2052384069443363029#m

What's interesting is they poll at the Congressional and state house level.

Foxx Navarro's avatar

polling a generic dem is so funny because there already is a candidate the dems have lol

JazElections's avatar

https://missionlocal.org/2026/05/sf-marie-hurabiell-connectedsf-homophobia/

CA-11: Democratic candidate Marie Huriabell, a former aide to San Francisco mayor Dan Lurie and a Trump administration official, is under fire for purported homophobia after attacking state Sen. Scott Wiener for his sexuality regarding legislation he passed years ago to protect the LGBTQ+ community.

As someone once said regarding another race, her chances of winning go from zero to zero.

Zero Cool's avatar

Huriabell’s campaign is officially DOA.

It would be fair to attack Weiner on the issues from a constructive sense but in this case, this is not a sign of a real campaign Huriabell is running.

I mean come on. The LGBTQ community is a considerable portion of the population in San Francisco.

Zero Cool's avatar

Also, on a side note regarding Marie Huriabell:

She advocates for a typical Silicon Valley-like universal basic income proposal that’s meant to address displacement from AI as opposed to flat out limiting AI development and stopping displacement from happening as a result in these cases.

My god, this is not an inspiring Democratic candidate.

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May 7
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Zero Cool's avatar

As long as a technology regulatory agency is established, yes, particularly with the crackdown on data centers.

The EU is already well ahead of the U.S. on this.

User's avatar
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May 8
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Zero Cool's avatar

Regulation by default doesn’t stop innovation. As long as it’s structured accordingly and has the right safeguards, there’s more to work with. Getting input from Tristan Harris (who formerly worked at Google), the co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology and others associated with him helps a lot.

Banning isn’t going to solve anything. That’s only going to big at Silicon Valley to donate more to the GOP.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Huriabell is a literal DINO, probably moreso than John Fetterman. She's basically a Republican nominally running as a Democrat.

There are a lot of things that progressives can attack Scott Weiner over (he's politically similar to, for example, Matt Mahan and Dan Goldman), but his sexual orientation is not something a progressive candidate is going to attack Weiner over.

JazElections's avatar

She was a registered Republican until 2022. You also don't see many so-called Democrats working for the Trump admin.

Zero Cool's avatar

Apparently Huriabell did work for Mayor Daniel Lurie but that’s nothing to really fuss about.

Lurie is really apolitical in terms of how he projects himself as Mayor even while he is doing plenty of transformative things already with nearly just 1 1/2 years in office. He also appointed the replacement of recalled Supervisor Joel Edgardio, who is more to the left than he is.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

CT-1: Buttigieg endorses Luke Bronin, who is challenging 77-year old incumbent John Larson

https://www.ms.now/news/buttigieg-backs-luke-bronin-in-bid-to-unseat-longtime-connecticut-democrat

Mike in MD's avatar

The gift that keeps on giving. Imagine if Trump and his team were competent at communication (let alone governing), or could convincingly show empathy?

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/07/politics/economy-trump-administration-messaging?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc&recs_exp=up-next-article-end&tenant_id=related.en

Case in point mentioned there: the billionaire Commerce Secretary saying his mother wouldn't stress if she missed a Social Security check--because everybody has a billionaire, or at least millionaire, relative or close friend they can turn to in a pinch?

Other examples listed of this comical tone-deafness include suggesting saving money by raising backyard chickens (everyone has a yard and the resources to be their own farmer, right?), "Credit card spending is up! Whoo-ee!", and Trump saying families can adjust to tariffs by buying fewer dolls and toys.

(Speaking of tariffs, apparently CEO's and industrialists can't find the buttons that they were supposed to push after Liberation Day that would instantly open new factories, as factory openings are lower than under Biden.)

Henrik's avatar

Yes but remember that tariffs are manly (somehow), so we must have them even if they’re economically deleterious, because otherwise our economy is girly

(MAGA Logic)

JazElections's avatar

https://nashvillebanner.com/2026/05/07/tennessee-congressional-redistricting-confederate-flag/

Nashville, Tennessee - While protesting ongoing redistricting, state Rep. Justin Jones (D) burned a Confederate flag in the halls of the state capitol.

Say what you will about doing something like this now, but about a century ago Jones would have been dragged out of those halls and lynched. We've come a long way, and we shouldn't be in a position where this needs to be done.

Paleo's avatar

Good for him. Unfortunately, a majority of the supreme court are confederate flag waivers.

JazElections's avatar

Especially Alito, who infamously had his wife instigate an argument with a neighbor in Arlington over his Trump 2024 yard signs, and delivered the majority opinion in Callais and other terrible, racist decisions.

MPC's avatar

I think Alito was chomping at the bit to write the majority opinions on both Dobbs and Callais, just to rub it in.

brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

"A century ago" might even be too generous.

Harold Wales's avatar

With burchett leading the way.

Republican hit with backlash over call for 'hangings': 'Itching to bring back lynching'

https://www.rawstory.com/tim-burchett-bring-back-hanging/

Yes this rep is from tn.

They also want to give your tax dolalrs to far reich wing sources.

Tim Burchett floats federal funding for Steve Bannon, Newsmax and Fox News at PBS hearing

https://www.rawstory.com/tim-burchett-news-funding/