Morning Digest: Florida Democrats aim to put another GOP district in play

A Latino backlash and special election upsets are buoying a new candidate

Hector Mujica, Democratic candidate for Congress in Florida. (Credit: Hector Mujica Facebook)

Leading Off

FL-28

Businessman Hector Mujica announced Thursday that he would challenge Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez in Florida’s 28th Congressional District, a Miami-area constituency Democrats hope to put in play if Donald Trump continues to alienate Latino voters.

Mujica, a longtime Google employee who most recently headed its Americas Philanthropy program, previously launched a bid for Senate last fall. That campaign didn’t generate much attention, but he’s predicting he’ll have much better luck in his new endeavor.

A day before he switched contests, Mujica’s team publicized an internal poll showing him trailing Gimenez by a 46-40 margin. That relatively narrow spread would represent a huge turnaround from 2024, when Gimenez defeated Navy veteran Phil Ehr 65-35 as Trump carried the 28th District 62-37.

But the two firms that conducted the poll early last month, EDGE Communications and MDW Communications, argued that Gimenez would be in for a very different race this fall. In a memo, the pollsters wrote that the congressman’s “nominal lead” was “built on a fragile foundation: a politically toxic environment for Republicans and a district where the defining issues — affordability and corruption — favor a challenger.”

Mujica, whose parents emigrated from Venezuela, is also counting on Republicans suffering a huge reversal with Latino voters in South Florida after years of dramatic gains.

The denizens of what’s now the 28th District, which includes Miami’s southern exurbs and the Florida Keys, were anything but Trump fans when he was first on the ballot in 2016.

The area, which is home to a large Cuban American electorate as well as voters who trace their ancestry to Central and South America, had in fact moved to the left during the Obama era, and that trend initially continued even after Trump won the GOP nomination for the first time. Hillary Clinton would have carried the 28th District ​​56-40, according to data from the Voting and Election Science Team uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App.

Trump, though, made huge inroads with Latino voters across the country both during his failed reelection campaign and later in his 2024 comeback, and those gains were especially strong in and around Miami. Trump would have carried the 28th by a 53-46 margin in 2020, which then ballooned to a 25-point victory four years later. That stinging defeat left Democrats with little cause to be optimistic for a snap-back.

But Gimenez, a former Miami-Dade County mayor who had his own down and then up relationship with Trump before his 2020 election to Congress, has warned his party for months that Trump’s anti-immigration agenda is harming his constituents.

In July, he informed reporters after a meeting with then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, “We told her why we are having issues with what they are doing with Cubans, Venezuelans, Haitians living in Miami-Dade County. That’s why you’ve seen some degree of difference in President Trump’s tone.”

Whatever tonal shift Gimenez detected last summer, though, didn’t mean much in terms of actual policy changes. He’s since spent the last year warning of a brewing nationwide backlash among Latino voters that could soon see the GOP pay a dear price.

“Politically, it’s hurting our chances at the midterms—and I’m just being frank about it,” he told the far-right outlet Newsmax in January. “And the most important thing we have to do is actually keep the majority, because if not, we’re going to go back to the policies of President Biden and open borders, and that’s the last thing we want to do.”

Mujica, for his part, is arguing that voters have no reason to turn to Gimenez for his help.

“After decades of the same leadership, people are working harder and still falling behind,” Mujica says in his launch video. That statement is accompanied by a photo of Gimenez taking the oath of office as mayor of Miami-Dade County 15 years ago, as well as an image of him being sworn in for another term in Congress by Speaker Mike Johnson last year.

Mujica joins Ehr, who announced a second bid for this seat back in February, in the Aug. 18 Democratic primary. Any other prospective candidates have until June 12 to file.

No one’s sure, though, what the 28th District will look like by then. Gov. Ron DeSantis has called a special session of the legislature to address congressional redistricting on April 20, but the GOP-dominated state government remains preoccupied with the much more urgent matter of breaking a bitter impasse over the state budget.

To make matters worse, Republicans in Florida’s congressional delegation were already wary that DeSantis’ gerrymandering drive could backfire even before Democrats scored a pair of upset victories last month in special elections in legislative districts that Trump carried in 2024.

Those results sparked a new round of angst for Sunshine State Republicans—including Gimenez, who has warned legislators to pay attention to those special elections.

“They need to be really careful,” he told Punchbowl. “They should look at what happened there. By trying to create more, you may end up with less.”

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10 of the hottest races for governor

1Q Fundraising

• IA-Sen:

  • Josh Turek (D): $1.1 million raised

  • Zach Wahls (D): $1.1 million raised

• MT-Sen: Seth Bodnar (I): $1.4 million raised (in four weeks)

• SD-Sen: Brian Bengs (I): $236,000 raised

• PA-Gov: Josh Shapiro (D-inc): $10 million raised

• SC-Gov: Pamela Evette (R): $1 million raised

• AK-AL: Bill Hill (I): $780,000 raised

• AZ-02: Jonathan Nez (D): $1 million raised

• CA-17:

  • Ro Khanna (D-inc): $1.8 million raised

  • Ethan Agarwal (D): $400,000 raised (in one month)

• CO-05: Jessica Killin (D): $415,000 raised, additional $250,000 self-funded, $1.5 million cash on hand

• CO-08: Manny Rutinel (D): $950,000 raised, $1.75 million cash on hand

• FL-07: Bale Dalton (D): $344,000 raised, $460,000 cash on hand

• FL-13: Leela Gray (D): $561,000 raised (in six weeks)

• FL-27: Robin Peguero (D): $340,000 raised

• ME-02: Jordan Wood (D): $810,000 raised

• MI-04: Sean McCann (D): $1 million raised

• MI-07: Bridget Brink (D): $600,000 raised

• MI-10: Eric Chung (D): $330,000 raised, $925,000 cash on hand

• MN-01: Jake Johnson (D): $470,000 raised

• MT-01: Sam Forstag (D): $445,000 raised

• NE-02: Denise Powell (D): $432,000 raised

• NH-01: Maura Sullivan (D): $700,000 raised, $1.4 million cash on hand

• NJ-12: Jay Vaingankar (D): $110,000 raised

• NY-04: Laura Gillen (D-inc): $1.3 million raised, $3 million cash on hand

• NY-07: Claire Valdez (D): $750,000 raised

• NY-17: Effie Phillips-Staley (D): $149,000 raised, $68,000 cash on hand

• TN-05: Chaz Molder (D): $601,000 raised

• TX-33: Colin Allred (D): $1.8 million raised

• VA-02: Elaine Luria (D): $1.75 million raised, $2 million cash on hand

Senate

VA-Sen

Mark Moran, a former investment banker who once starred on the reality TV show “FBoy Island,” said Thursday that he would run for Senate as an independent rather than continue to challenge Democratic incumbent Mark Warner for renomination.

Warner, who served as governor of Virginia before he was elected to the Senate in 2008, remains the heavy favorite to secure reelection for what he says will be his final term.

Governors

NM-Gov

The New Mexico Supreme Court has rejected a lawsuit challenging businessman Duke Rodriguez’s eligibility to run for governor, ensuring he’ll appear on the June 2 GOP primary ballot. Plaintiffs unsuccessfully argued that Rodriguez had not lived in New Mexico for the requisite five years.

Rodriguez faces two notable opponents for the Republican nod: businessman Doug Turner and Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. Democrats have a two-primary between former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman.

RI-Gov

Rhode Island businessman Ken Block said Thursday that he would run for governor as an independent, a move that comes more than a decade after his two prior runs for the post.

Block took 6% of the vote in 2010 as the nominee for the Moderate Party, which he founded. He later joined the GOP but lost the 2014 primary 55-45 to Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who went on to lose a close general election to Democrat Gina Raimondo.

Block considered running against Raimondo in 2018, but he remained on the sidelines as the incumbent decisively won a second campaign against Fung. Raimondo later resigned in 2021 to join the Biden administration, but Block didn’t show any obvious interest in opposing her successor, Democrat Dan McKee, the next year.

McKee is currently locked in a tough primary rematch against former CVS Helena Foulkes, whom he narrowly fended off in 2022 and now leads him in all available polling. Aaron Guckian, the former executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association, is the only notable Republican in the race.

House

FL-16

Sydney Gruters, the former executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation, announced Thursday that she would run to succeed Rep. Vern Buchanan, a fellow Republican who is not seeking another term in Florida’s conservative 16th District.

Gruters, the wife of RNC Chair Joe Gruters, entered the race to represent part of the Tampa area the week after Donald Trump pre-endorsed her with a Truth Social post that concluded, “RUN, SYDNEY, RUN!”

Gruters did just that one day after she stepped down as head of the nonprofit arm for New College, a liberal arts school whose leadership has been radically reshaped by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But while most would-be GOP candidates have deferred to the Gruters, Christian charter school founder Eddie Speir isn’t getting out of her way. Speir, whose nomination to the New College board of trustees failed to advance through the Republican-led legislature in 2023, welcomed Gruters to the race by calling her “[e]xactly the kind of ‘safe’ RINO the swamp keeps sending us.”

Speir previously challenged Buchanan in the 2024 primary but lost the primary 61-39 after self-funding $500,000. He announced a second bid not long after the incumbent said he would retire in January.

NY-10

32BJ SEIU, one of the most influential labor unions in New York City politics, has endorsed former City Comptroller Brad Lander’s campaign to unseat Rep. Dan Goldman in next year’s Democratic primary.

The move marks a turnaround from last year, when the union backed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city’s mayoral primary over more liberal options, including Lander and the eventual winner, Zohran Mamdani. (It switched to Mamdani for the general election.)

It’s also a notable vote of confidence in the challenger, though it doesn’t represent a change in course, as 32BJ has not endorsed Goldman in either of his previous runs for office.

VA-07

Democratic Del. Adele McClure announced on Thursday that she would join the race for Virginia’s proposed 7th Congressional District should voters approve an amendment on April 21 that would allow the state to enact a new, Democratic-drawn map.

Three notable Democrats were already running: Del. Dan Helmer, former federal prosecutor J.P. Cooney, and attorney Dorothy McAuliffe, the wife of former Gov. Terry McAuliffe.

WY-AL

Conservative activist Steve Friess, the son of the late Republican megadonor Foster Friess, announced this week that he would campaign to succeed Rep. Harriet Hageman, a fellow Republican who is giving up Wyoming’s lone U.S. House seat to run for the Senate.

While Steve Friess does not appear to have run for office before, he’s emphasizing one particular connection in GOP politics, telling Cowboy State Daily that he helped “get Turning Point USA launched, with Charlie Kirk — who we miss terribly.”

Foster Friess, who wrote the very first check to Kirk’s nascent group in 2012, appeared on the ballot in 2018 when he took second place to Mark Gordon in the primary for governor. The elder Friess, who received Donald Trump’s endorsement on the very day of the election, finished just ahead of Hageman, who later won election to the House in 2022.

Steve Friess entered the race a week after former state Rep. John Romero-Martinez launched his own effort. Romero-Martinez, however, may not be much of a factor: His campaign for a second term ended with his defeat in the 2022 primary, and he took a distant third place in a comeback bid two years later.

The August GOP lineup already included former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, state Senate President Bo Biteman, Secretary of State Chuck Gray, and billionaire businessman Reid Rasner.

Voting Rights & Election Law

Rhode Island

Rhode Island’s legislature has passed a bill delaying the state’s primary by one day to avoid holding the election the day after Labor Day. Instead, primaries will take place on Sept. 9, which is a Wednesday. Gov. Dan McKee has said he will sign the bill.

Stay on top of every primary and runoff by bookmarking The Downballot’s easy-to-read election calendar, which we update every time any dates change.

The Downballot's 2026 election calendar

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: Emerson College:

  • Ashley Moody (R-inc): 46, Alex Vindman (D): 38.

  • Moody (R-inc): 47, Angie Nixon (D): 36.

• IA-Sen (D): Bedrock Polling for Teamsters Local 238:

  • Zach Wahls: 56, Josh Turek: 38.

  • Teamsters Local 238 supports Wahls.

• KY-Sen (R): Emerson for Nexstar and WDKY-TV:

  • Andy Barr: 28, Daniel Cameron: 21, Nate Morris: 15, undecided: 29.

  • Feb.: Barr: 24, Cameron: 21, Morris: 14.

• KY-Sen (D): Emerson:

  • Charles Booker: 36, Amy McGrath: 18, others 3% or less, undecided: 38.

  • Feb.: 30-19 Booker.

• LA-Sen (R): American Pulse Research & Polling:

  • Julia Letlow: 31, John Fleming: 25, Bill Cassidy (inc): 21.

• LA-Sen (R runoff): American Pulse:

  • Letlow: 37, Fleming: 34.

  • Letlow: 54, Cassidy (inc): 24.

  • Fleming: 49, Cassidy (inc): 29.

• FL-Gov (R): Emerson:

  • Byron Donalds: 46, Jay Collins: 4, James Fishback: 4, Paul Renner: 3.

  • Donalds: 44, Casey DeSantis: 7, Collins: 4, Fishback: 4.

  • Casey DeSantis has not announced a campaign.

• FL-Gov (D): Emerson:

  • David Jolly: 21, Jerry Demings: 10, undecided: 53.

• FL-Gov: Emerson:

  • Donalds (R): 44, Jolly (D): 39.

  • Donalds (R): 45, Demings (D): 36.

  • Jolly (D): 40, DeSantis (R): 39.

  • DeSantis (R): 41, Demings (D): 39.

• ME-02: Upswing Research for Jordan Wood:

  • Paul LeLage (R): 52, Jordan Wood (D): 45.

  • The poll was in the field Feb. 27-27. The release did not include numbers testing the other Democratic candidates against LePage.

• WY-AL (R): Peak Insights for Reid Rasner:

  • Reid Rasner: 24, Chuck Gray: 21, Jillian Balow: 6, others 5% or less, undecided: 39.

  • Unreleased January poll: Gray: 22, Rasner: 16.

  • Both polls were conducted before Steve Friess and John Romero-Martinez joined the race.