It would be great if you guys could list the 10 most likely candidates who could flip seats in the house AND where small dollar contributions might actually make a difference.
I'd assume many of the likeliest to flip are the results of redistricting in CA, UT, or (fingers crossed), VA. Some of those may be easy flips, others tougher.
That gives one 10 GOP held House seats between Tossup & Tilt D. There are no GOP held seats in their Lean D (10 Dem) or Likely D (7 Dem) categories. However:
Indeed. Gave to my State Senator Pete Harckham recently - I’ve met him, he’s a nice guy, and his seat isn’t exactly Safe D based on past elections. (Although my State Assemblyman Chris Burdick is not in any real trouble, I gave money to his campaign anyway as a kind of thank you to his office for assisting with a personal constituent services issue involving a state agency. Constituent services are important!)
One way would be to go to https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential, sort by "margin", and see where there is a R representative in a district Trump carried by, say, <10, depending on your priors about how much the electoral environment will shift. The problem is it hasn't been updated for redistricting. I was hoping that would happen soon, even if some states like VA and FL can't be finalized yet, specifically so I could figure out where to aim my small donations.
I'm curious as to how many (D)-aligned candidates running for congressional or senate bids have a national security/military veteran background and if any aligned PACs (e.g. VoteVets) have had a strong influence in choosing successful candidates post-primaries in prior years
Also if anybody is interested in reading U.S. foreign policy and regional affairs, I write pieces on current events.
Florida’s swing/competitive seats have almost exclusively featured Democrats with military/veteran backgrounds running except for Governor. But federally it’s all the same service men and women. I’ve given up on winning Florida at the top of the ballot, but maybe this cycle Democrats can rebuild their congressional and legislative bench in the state to start growing and seasoning our political talent so we can start competing statewide again in the future. FL-07, FL-13, FL-15 and FL-Sen all have veterans running for Democrats, sometimes multiple.
VA-Sen, Mark Moran (newly-I): I would say there's probably no good way to respond to the question "You taking jew money?" but I think "No." is not one of the better ones.
That dude is a joke. Mark Warner said the other day that a data center moratorium was idiocy. If Moran was anywhere near a serious candidate, he would be able to make a case against Warner. I'm not saying he would come close to winning if he had stayed in the primary, but I bet there is a noticeable anti-Warner voting bloc out there.
I think that, to obtain approval, data center owners should be required to finance and construct solar or windpower production equal to twice the data center’s estimated consumption, including required grid updates – BEFORE the data center is even built.
BUT, imho, all crypto mining and cryptocurrency facilities should be banned – and they should never be allowed to use the innocuous euphemism "data center".
Well, there was an article over a year ago that revealed data centers had to be rebuilt or remade to ensure limited impact on the environment. That may relate to what you are talking about. You are also mentioning important details that shouldn’t be ignored as it isn’t just data centers that factor in.
We really have a national security problem with this excessive dependency on digital technology and data centers. What used to be simple protection through used name and password is not enough. Now you need two-factor authentication, which wouldn’t have been needed if digital tech didn’t evolve so much in the last 10+ years. What’s next, authentication with your fingerprint and voice indication?
Even though Fuckboy Island is a guilty pleasure (the men they find to go on it are hilariously massive chodes above and beyond what reality tv is usually able to manage, even on spectacularly entertaining garbage like Love Island*) this guy is a dullard who belongs nowhere near elective office
*caveat that Love Island did give the world Robert Rausch, probably the greatest Traitor on The Traitors of all time in any country, and he seems like a pretty solid person despite how he initially might come across
The president has defied political gravity so many times that he’s often assumed to be invincible. But Trump’s Iran war is inescapable, his approval rating is plummeting—and his rambling White House address exposed that he’s less powerful than ever. “
Mishandled but not a gratuitous, illegal act of aggression. For a comparison to that, we'd have to look at Bush's aggression against Iraq, but at least he got Congressional approval for that crime.
Yeah the whole idea of "governments[...] deriving their just powers from the consent of governed" seems rather passé these days.
There was at least an attempt to present a rational, coherent case for the war, if a flawed one, as opposed to the 25 contradictory justifications and objectives a minute we get now.
The WH is war gaming $200/barrel oil* and even if the war ended right now analysists aren't predicting oil to drop to around pre-war levels until 2028.
*You'd think they would have been planning for this before they started dropping bombs on Iran.
Yes but logistics and strategy are woke whereas bombs away and damn the consequences is manly, at least according to morning talk show host who is convinced he knows more than career generals about “warrior mentality,” so who’s to say?
recc'd for "logistics and strategy are woke". I'm guessing they're also for cucks and beta males. A true, lethal, alpha warrior rushes in without any analysis...
I agree that we need a bit more but these numbers are closing in on those in 2018 where PB was roughly at 57-43 D in the GOV race and the state races were close c 1%. difference
Also I've been told by somebody in the know that some serious oppo-akin to that in NC with Robinson-will be dropping soon against Donalds. Don't know what but comes from a pretty credible source.
If Donalds turns out to be Robinson-tier crazy, chances are some other Republican like Ms. DeSantis would benefit most, not someone as crazy as Fishback
Dade seems likely to be a swing county for the foreseeable future. The Dem ceiling is still probably close to 2016, but 2024 might not even be the Dem floor.
Party favorability doesn't seem that important at this point. We just need to turn out the double haters, or the people who are in the blue tent but won't admit to it.
Andre Carson is the incumbent Congressman, and he doesn't appear to be in serious danger of losing renomination, even if only one of the three primary challengers were running against him. It's interesting that Carson has three primary challengers, all three of which are not obscure figures in Indiana politics.
Please consider tracking the makeup of each stateʻs congressional delegation. The potential election tsunami has the potential of not only switching control of the House but also giving the Democrats the majority of the congressional delegations which can be very important.
The contingency is only if no candidate has a majority of the Electoral College. If that came to pass, doesn't matter who has a majority in the House, the procedure is constitutionally prescribed.
The majority of state delegations really only matters for a contingent presidential election if there's an Electoral College deadlock, right? Ofc better to have more now, but seems like this doesn't especially matter until 2028.
Also: there are reasonable pathways to an electoral college tie. However, I struggle to imagine scenarios where that happens that also do not see republicans with a majority of house delegations. The way the states are drawn we're at a disadvantage for the house delegation metric: the only situation where we're winning it is when we've had an amazing election with big lead in votes. An amazing election for us would be one where winning the electoral college is effectively guaranteed.
No, but there's more signs for him to retire than her. Of course, there were a lot of calls for her retirement in 2016, but now he's throwing a celebration of 20 years on the court, not to mention all of the articles speculating his retirement.
It’d admittedly be kind of hilarious if Alito retired and he’s replaced by somebody more similar to ACB/Kav, marginally shifting the conservative bloc leftwards
What's going to be hugely ironic (but par for the course in this presidency) is that Trump has tried to repeal DEI in every aspect of government and private business, and then he'll turn around and try to get create for nominating the first Asian Justice when he chooses James Ho or Neomi Rao.
Would give Antonio Reynoso the edge but would not be surprised if Claire Valdez pulls off an upset. Julie Won, meanwhile, isn't nearly as prominent as those two.
OK-Gov: Major Republican candidates include Attorney General Gentner Drummond and state Rep. Charles McCall, who are the leading contenders for a likely runoff, as well as Chip Keating and former state Sens. Jake Merrick and Mike Mazzei. State Rep. Cyndi Munson is currently running for the Democratic nomination unopposed.
OK-Lt. Gov: Major Republican candidates here include former state Rep. T.W. Shannon, state Reps. Justin Humphrey and Brian Hill, and state Sen. Darrell Weaver.
OK-Auditor: State Auditor Melissa Capps is unopposed for re-election.
OK-AG: Former state Rep. Jon Echols and state energy secretary Jeff Starling, both Republicans, are running to succeed AG Gentner Drummond, who is running for governor.
OK-Treasurer: State Treasurer Todd Russ is unopposed for re-election.
OK-Sen: Rep. Kevin Hern faces several minor candidates in the Republican primary while N'Kiyla Thomas is the most prominent Democrat running.
OK-1: A large Republican field to succeed Rep. Kevin Hern has emerged - state Corporation Commissioner Kim David, state Rep. Mark Tedford, former congressional staffer Jed Cochran, retired colonel Dan Rooney, businessman Nathan Butterfield and pastor Jackson Lahmeyer are the leading candidates. Navy veteran Jackson Stallings, who had some conservative support, withdrew before the deadline.
OK-2 through 5: All other Republican members of Congress face little opposition for re-election.
Where have you seen N'Kiyla Thomas has dropped out of the OK-SEN race? I'm seeing on her Facebook page that she's still fired up about the race as several posts have been made within the last 24 hours.
FEC statements of candidacy can sometimes become outdated by the actual filing deadline, but now she is on the ballot on the link from my original comment.
For federal races, the FEC filing comes first, but you also have to file with the state in a period that usually lasts a few weeks (FEC filings can come at any time before the deadline). The exact specifics differ by state - for example, in Ohio House races, you file with the most populous county in the district, and in your native California, you just file with whatever county you live in.
It's happening right on cue (maybe a few months early) -- the Kondik/Trende/etc. pundit axis is trying to suggest ways for Republicans to avoid a wipeout in November, and have settled on a SCOTUS vacancy or Trump "nationalizing" the midterms in a way that brings home soft R's. IMO the reason the GOP is in the shitter is that the midterms are already nationalized from Trump-instigated tariffs, economic angst, wars, etc. Not sure how getting Trump out there more solves that?
Also the logic on SCOTUS is wacky but open to being convinced otherwise -- it's a different dynamic being a sitting Dem Senator having to make that call vs. a candidate. And there's no doubt the R choice would get confirmed. (I also think "Kavanaugh saved the Senate in 2018" has been too widely blamed as a reason that we lost IN, MO, ND other than they are red states and the GOP ran shitty candidates in each race previously).
I mostly worry about us winning the Senate and a SCOTUS vacancy in the lame duck.
It would be great if you guys could list the 10 most likely candidates who could flip seats in the house AND where small dollar contributions might actually make a difference.
The Downballot isn't into the ratings game so I doubt they would do that. However, some of the regulars here may.
As for your second request it is difficult to do until all the fundraising numbers are out which won't be until a couple days after April 15.
Decision Desk HQ’s Substack has content like that
https://substack.com/@decisiondeskhq/note/c-225347225?r=8w3w3&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I'd assume many of the likeliest to flip are the results of redistricting in CA, UT, or (fingers crossed), VA. Some of those may be easy flips, others tougher.
Inside Elections: Race ratings:
1. Tossup: 10 (8 GOP, 2 Dem)
GOP: AZ-01, AZ-06, CO-8, IA-01, MI-07, NY-17, PA-07, VA-02.
Dem: OH-01 (Landsman), TX-34 (Gonzalez)
---------------------
2. Tilt D: 8 (2 GOP, 6 Dem)
GOP: CA-48, NE-02
Dem: CA-13, CA-45, NM-02, NY-04, TX-28, WA-03.
---------------
That gives one 10 GOP held House seats between Tossup & Tilt D. There are no GOP held seats in their Lean D (10 Dem) or Likely D (7 Dem) categories. However:
3. Tilt GOP: 7 (6 GOP, 1 Dem)
GOP: CA-22, MI-10, NJ-07, PA-08, PA-10, WI-03.
Dem: OH-09 (Kaptur).
https://insideelections.com/ratings/house
As to where small $$ would make the most difference? That is gonna be more granular.
Race to the White House will give you a % breakdown for many Congressional races. In their opinion, of course.
Race to the Whote House is a bit more aggressively D leaning in their forecasts.
GOP held only:
Likely D: CA-01
Lean D: CA-48
Tilt D: AZ-06, CO-08, NE-02, VA-02
Tossup: AZ-01, CA-22, IA-01,IA-03, MI-07, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-17, PA-01, PA-07, PA-10, WI-03.
https://www.racetothewh.com/house
RttWH defines:
Tossup: 60-40 seats
Tilt: 60-40 to 75-25
Lean: 75-25 to 85-15
Likely: 85-15 to 95-5
Safe: 95-5
Thanks very helpful
"where small dollar contributions might actually make a difference" State legislative races.
Indeed. Gave to my State Senator Pete Harckham recently - I’ve met him, he’s a nice guy, and his seat isn’t exactly Safe D based on past elections. (Although my State Assemblyman Chris Burdick is not in any real trouble, I gave money to his campaign anyway as a kind of thank you to his office for assisting with a personal constituent services issue involving a state agency. Constituent services are important!)
Me too and they are both about as good as one can hope for and very accessible
One way would be to go to https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-calculations-of-presidential, sort by "margin", and see where there is a R representative in a district Trump carried by, say, <10, depending on your priors about how much the electoral environment will shift. The problem is it hasn't been updated for redistricting. I was hoping that would happen soon, even if some states like VA and FL can't be finalized yet, specifically so I could figure out where to aim my small donations.
Of course, there are factors other than Trump's 2024 margin at play in the individual contests, but it's a good starting point.
Thanks. Really good way to do it
I'm curious as to how many (D)-aligned candidates running for congressional or senate bids have a national security/military veteran background and if any aligned PACs (e.g. VoteVets) have had a strong influence in choosing successful candidates post-primaries in prior years
Also if anybody is interested in reading U.S. foreign policy and regional affairs, I write pieces on current events.
Florida’s swing/competitive seats have almost exclusively featured Democrats with military/veteran backgrounds running except for Governor. But federally it’s all the same service men and women. I’ve given up on winning Florida at the top of the ballot, but maybe this cycle Democrats can rebuild their congressional and legislative bench in the state to start growing and seasoning our political talent so we can start competing statewide again in the future. FL-07, FL-13, FL-15 and FL-Sen all have veterans running for Democrats, sometimes multiple.
I posted an article about it a while ago:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/13/florida-dems-play-up-candidates-with-military-cred-00778126
https://archive.ph/PdVqe
Virginia Redistricting Referendum WaPo poll
Likely Voters
Yes 52%
No 47%
Registered Voters
Yes 53%
No 44%
Trump Approval
Disapprove 57%
Approve 40%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/0eee4c34-9746-492b-babe-116e433209d1.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2
Narrow, but winning. And very few undecided.
Based on some recent national polling, Virginia would be to the right of the country as a whole if Trump's approval rating is 40% in Virginia.
Highly unlikely and indicates they have a pretty tight LV panel. They also only had Spanberger ahead by +8 in their final LV poll.
I think this was where his approval rating was last November in the exit polls
VA-Sen, Mark Moran (newly-I): I would say there's probably no good way to respond to the question "You taking jew money?" but I think "No." is not one of the better ones.
https://x.com/itsmarkmoran/status/2039787314688213342
The good way to answer that question is to proudly say that they are, in fact, taking "Jew money" (whatever that is).
Very weirdly worded
That dude is a joke. Mark Warner said the other day that a data center moratorium was idiocy. If Moran was anywhere near a serious candidate, he would be able to make a case against Warner. I'm not saying he would come close to winning if he had stayed in the primary, but I bet there is a noticeable anti-Warner voting bloc out there.
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/warner-ai-data-center-moratorium-aoc-idiocy
Frankly, I think data centers should be ended. No data centers period.
I think that, to obtain approval, data center owners should be required to finance and construct solar or windpower production equal to twice the data center’s estimated consumption, including required grid updates – BEFORE the data center is even built.
BUT, imho, all crypto mining and cryptocurrency facilities should be banned – and they should never be allowed to use the innocuous euphemism "data center".
Well, there was an article over a year ago that revealed data centers had to be rebuilt or remade to ensure limited impact on the environment. That may relate to what you are talking about. You are also mentioning important details that shouldn’t be ignored as it isn’t just data centers that factor in.
We really have a national security problem with this excessive dependency on digital technology and data centers. What used to be simple protection through used name and password is not enough. Now you need two-factor authentication, which wouldn’t have been needed if digital tech didn’t evolve so much in the last 10+ years. What’s next, authentication with your fingerprint and voice indication?
Even though Fuckboy Island is a guilty pleasure (the men they find to go on it are hilariously massive chodes above and beyond what reality tv is usually able to manage, even on spectacularly entertaining garbage like Love Island*) this guy is a dullard who belongs nowhere near elective office
*caveat that Love Island did give the world Robert Rausch, probably the greatest Traitor on The Traitors of all time in any country, and he seems like a pretty solid person despite how he initially might come across
Did he say that because no one is donating to his campaign at all?
Democratic Rep Bill Owens election redux part 2? Democrats may have an opening in NY21:
https://x.com/AlexBGault/status/2039785510554439755
This means that even if Constantino wins the Republican primary in June (if there is one), Smullen will be on the ballot in November.
I’ve been told the Conservative Party specifically asked that Smullen keep their party line no matter what happens with the GOP primary.
Wish Blake Gendebien actually had a claim to being somewhat liberal. Can't even say if he voted for Harris or not.
Still, better him than the sticker CEO MAGAloon.
Just saw that Dylan Hewitt filed with Working Families, despite dropping out of the Democratic primary.
https://publicreporting.elections.ny.gov/WhoFiled/WhoFiled
Media are using the K word to describe Trump’s presidency and the war in Iran.
https://x.com/PeterHamby/status/2039868120375157169
New
@PuckNews
The poll numbers tell the story. And so do gas prices. And mortgage rates. Even corn futures.
Trump is at his weakest — and he did it to himself.
https://puck.news/is-iran-trumps-katrina/
@PuckNews
“ Trump’s Katrina
The president has defied political gravity so many times that he’s often assumed to be invincible. But Trump’s Iran war is inescapable, his approval rating is plummeting—and his rambling White House address exposed that he’s less powerful than ever. “
https://archive.ph/K5wy5
Krazy?
Katrina I guess, bc Klannic probably is too extreme for the media to use yet.
I was going to guess "kakistocracy"...
New one for me...govt by the worst men. Also another in the weeds thing the we'd love here at TDB. 🙂
Kray-Kray-Krazy
That's rather unfair ...to W. Katrina was a natural disaster. There was nothing but his own idiocy that led to this war.
Mishandled but not a gratuitous, illegal act of aggression. For a comparison to that, we'd have to look at Bush's aggression against Iraq, but at least he got Congressional approval for that crime.
Yeah the whole idea of "governments[...] deriving their just powers from the consent of governed" seems rather passé these days.
There was at least an attempt to present a rational, coherent case for the war, if a flawed one, as opposed to the 25 contradictory justifications and objectives a minute we get now.
Yes. It was a lie, but at least Bush went through the motions.
I don’t think most Americans have any idea what’s coming next regarding gas prices.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/02/dated-brent-oil-price-actual-cargo-highest-level-2008.html
Brent oil spot price for actual cargo soars to $141, highest level since 2008 financial crisis
Will it surpass 2022 Biden levels?
Adjusted for inflation maybe not, but it’ll probably be similar numbers
I'd be surprised if it didn't come June, presuming the Strait of Hormuz is not yet open.
I could see Trump TACO before things get that far
The WH is war gaming $200/barrel oil* and even if the war ended right now analysists aren't predicting oil to drop to around pre-war levels until 2028.
*You'd think they would have been planning for this before they started dropping bombs on Iran.
Yes but logistics and strategy are woke whereas bombs away and damn the consequences is manly, at least according to morning talk show host who is convinced he knows more than career generals about “warrior mentality,” so who’s to say?
recc'd for "logistics and strategy are woke". I'm guessing they're also for cucks and beta males. A true, lethal, alpha warrior rushes in without any analysis...
Time to break out The Good Soldier Švejk...
I am highly doubtful oil will get that high.
It might well crash the economy before reaching those heights. Otherwise, if this war persists for a few months, why wouldn't it go that high?
Because I think Trump will back down before oil reaches that height.
New Florida downballot poll:
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2040049196103766150
FLORIDA POLL: (Palm Beach county only)
Governor
🟦 David Jolly: 49%
🟥 Byron Donalds: 40%
—
Senate
🟦 Alex Vindman: 46%
🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 42%
——
Job Approval
Gov DeSantis: 47-47 (=)
Pres. Trump: 38-56 (-18)
St. Pete Polls /
@Fla_Pol
| LV | 3/30-31
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/788769-poll-dems-on-statewide-ballot-lead-in-palm-beach-buoyed-by-disdain-for-donald-trump/
We’re gonna need bigger spreads than that in Palm. Ugh we might soon be down to just Broward as a D county in SoFlo
I agree that we need a bit more but these numbers are closing in on those in 2018 where PB was roughly at 57-43 D in the GOV race and the state races were close c 1%. difference
Also I've been told by somebody in the know that some serious oppo-akin to that in NC with Robinson-will be dropping soon against Donalds. Don't know what but comes from a pretty credible source.
Here's hoping it doesn't come out until after the primary.
Yeah, I don't know if Florida could make it through Fishback without descending into utter chaos.
If Donalds turns out to be Robinson-tier crazy, chances are some other Republican like Ms. DeSantis would benefit most, not someone as crazy as Fishback
Interesting!
Dade seems likely to be a swing county for the foreseeable future. The Dem ceiling is still probably close to 2016, but 2024 might not even be the Dem floor.
It will be a while before Florida is winnable again statewide but hopefully we make strong advances downballot
For comparison, in 2024 Harris carried Palm Beach County by less than a point, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by a point and a half: https://enr.electionsfl.org/PAL/Summary/3703/
Democrats aren’t over performing from the base alone.
https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2040038787418398797
🚨NEW from
@cnn
🚨
➡️Victories in Florida provided more evidence that Dems are not just motivating the base but WINNING over Republicans and independents.
➡️Both Democrats overperformed 2024 presidential margins by an amount larger than the shift in partisan turnout.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/01/politics/democrats-elections-flip-seats
Yeah, if that portends to all legislative seats up this year, Rs are going to lose seats they thought were safe.
I want this to be a fucking wipeout for the GOP in November.
Well that’s even better!
Maximize the wins.
New GCB Poll:
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2040076772356575495
CNN/SSRS POLL - Generic Ballot
Registered voters:
🟦 Democrats: 48%
🟥 Republicans: 42%
——
Most Motivated voters:
🟦 Democrats: 57%
🟥 Republicans: 38%
——
"Double Haters"
🟦 Democrats: 55%
🟥 Republicans: 24%
——
Party Favorability:
Democrats: 28% favorable
Republicans: 32% favorable
3/26-30 | RV
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/cnn-poll-double-haters-democrats-midterms
Party favorability doesn't seem that important at this point. We just need to turn out the double haters, or the people who are in the blue tent but won't admit to it.
The Democratic primary in 7th Congressional District in Indiana has four candidates:
https://mirrorindy.org/7th-congressional-district-andre-carson-destiny-wells-george-hornedo-2026-primary/?emci=fc6a34a1-c12e-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&emdi=d21a7e73-502f-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&ceid=630426
I'm watching from afar, as this is not my district.
Andre Carson is the incumbent Congressman, and he doesn't appear to be in serious danger of losing renomination, even if only one of the three primary challengers were running against him. It's interesting that Carson has three primary challengers, all three of which are not obscure figures in Indiana politics.
Destiny Wells is becoming a perennial candidate
Please consider tracking the makeup of each stateʻs congressional delegation. The potential election tsunami has the potential of not only switching control of the House but also giving the Democrats the majority of the congressional delegations which can be very important.
According to my math, Dems have an edge in 18 delegations. We could easily lose ME-02. Assuming D holds in NJ special and GOP holds in GA & CA.
+1: VT, DE, VA,
+2: HI, RI, ME, NH, NV
+3: NM
+4: OR
+5: CT
+6: MD, WA, NJ
+9: MA
+11: IL
+12: NY
+34: CA
----------
Even: CO, MN
-1: MI, AK
-2: KS,
-3: PA, AZ
-4: WI, GA, IA
-5: OH
-6: NC
-12: TX
I left a lot of GOP states off. But that is 31.
In the contingency election, only the Reps from 50 states can vote.
18 delegations with D edge, 2 tied. Which means 30 with R edge.
That is a Pres. contingency, yes? Seems unlikely to get that far if the Dens slready control the House, and thus the ability to certify.
Of course, they will still tryvto nullify the midterms.
The contingency is only if no candidate has a majority of the Electoral College. If that came to pass, doesn't matter who has a majority in the House, the procedure is constitutionally prescribed.
The majority of state delegations really only matters for a contingent presidential election if there's an Electoral College deadlock, right? Ofc better to have more now, but seems like this doesn't especially matter until 2028.
Also: there are reasonable pathways to an electoral college tie. However, I struggle to imagine scenarios where that happens that also do not see republicans with a majority of house delegations. The way the states are drawn we're at a disadvantage for the house delegation metric: the only situation where we're winning it is when we've had an amazing election with big lead in votes. An amazing election for us would be one where winning the electoral college is effectively guaranteed.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/samuel-alito-hospital-philadelphia-march
Alito was hospitalized last month.
Yeah, he's retiring. Trump will get a 4th SCOTUS justice.
No guarantee he retires. He could be in it for the long haul like RBG.
No, but there's more signs for him to retire than her. Of course, there were a lot of calls for her retirement in 2016, but now he's throwing a celebration of 20 years on the court, not to mention all of the articles speculating his retirement.
I don't think this hospitalization will change his calculus on whether or not he retires, though.
It’d admittedly be kind of hilarious if Alito retired and he’s replaced by somebody more similar to ACB/Kav, marginally shifting the conservative bloc leftwards
There's almost no chance of that. It'll be someone like James Ho or Andy Oldham, absolute MAGA chuds
Well, he'd better hurry up snd retire.
If the Senate flips, we may be looking at 8 for a while. Though Fettetman would probably vote to confirm.
What's going to be hugely ironic (but par for the course in this presidency) is that Trump has tried to repeal DEI in every aspect of government and private business, and then he'll turn around and try to get create for nominating the first Asian Justice when he chooses James Ho or Neomi Rao.
*credit, not create. Yeesh
Dehydrated septuagenarians, happens all the time. Nothing burger for now.
interviewing candidates in NY-07 today and they both seem really impressive w/ endorsements and such. Who has the edge?
Would give Antonio Reynoso the edge but would not be surprised if Claire Valdez pulls off an upset. Julie Won, meanwhile, isn't nearly as prominent as those two.
https://filings.okelections.gov/ViewCandidates/2026040120260403/99/all
Oklahoma candidate filing deadline:
OK-Gov: Major Republican candidates include Attorney General Gentner Drummond and state Rep. Charles McCall, who are the leading contenders for a likely runoff, as well as Chip Keating and former state Sens. Jake Merrick and Mike Mazzei. State Rep. Cyndi Munson is currently running for the Democratic nomination unopposed.
OK-Lt. Gov: Major Republican candidates here include former state Rep. T.W. Shannon, state Reps. Justin Humphrey and Brian Hill, and state Sen. Darrell Weaver.
OK-Auditor: State Auditor Melissa Capps is unopposed for re-election.
OK-AG: Former state Rep. Jon Echols and state energy secretary Jeff Starling, both Republicans, are running to succeed AG Gentner Drummond, who is running for governor.
OK-Treasurer: State Treasurer Todd Russ is unopposed for re-election.
OK-Sen: Rep. Kevin Hern faces several minor candidates in the Republican primary while N'Kiyla Thomas is the most prominent Democrat running.
OK-1: A large Republican field to succeed Rep. Kevin Hern has emerged - state Corporation Commissioner Kim David, state Rep. Mark Tedford, former congressional staffer Jed Cochran, retired colonel Dan Rooney, businessman Nathan Butterfield and pastor Jackson Lahmeyer are the leading candidates. Navy veteran Jackson Stallings, who had some conservative support, withdrew before the deadline.
OK-2 through 5: All other Republican members of Congress face little opposition for re-election.
TW Shannon still trying to make himself a thing after all these years, eh?
He might actually have a shot at becoming lieutenant governor, depending on who makes it to the runoff.
Where have you seen N'Kiyla Thomas has dropped out of the OK-SEN race? I'm seeing on her Facebook page that she's still fired up about the race as several posts have been made within the last 24 hours.
I guess she just hasn't filed yet, but she better get on it
I just checked.
Thomas filed it last year. Unless anything changes, she remains in the race.
https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6OK04163/?tab=filings#statements-of-candidacy
FEC statements of candidacy can sometimes become outdated by the actual filing deadline, but now she is on the ballot on the link from my original comment.
Perhaps I’m a bit confused but which comes first? The FEC filing or filing in the state for the office being sought by the candidate?
Either way, it looks like Thomas is good to go.
For federal races, the FEC filing comes first, but you also have to file with the state in a period that usually lasts a few weeks (FEC filings can come at any time before the deadline). The exact specifics differ by state - for example, in Ohio House races, you file with the most populous county in the district, and in your native California, you just file with whatever county you live in.
It's happening right on cue (maybe a few months early) -- the Kondik/Trende/etc. pundit axis is trying to suggest ways for Republicans to avoid a wipeout in November, and have settled on a SCOTUS vacancy or Trump "nationalizing" the midterms in a way that brings home soft R's. IMO the reason the GOP is in the shitter is that the midterms are already nationalized from Trump-instigated tariffs, economic angst, wars, etc. Not sure how getting Trump out there more solves that?
Also the logic on SCOTUS is wacky but open to being convinced otherwise -- it's a different dynamic being a sitting Dem Senator having to make that call vs. a candidate. And there's no doubt the R choice would get confirmed. (I also think "Kavanaugh saved the Senate in 2018" has been too widely blamed as a reason that we lost IN, MO, ND other than they are red states and the GOP ran shitty candidates in each race previously).
I mostly worry about us winning the Senate and a SCOTUS vacancy in the lame duck.
Judging by the Alito comment above, there may be a vacancy before November, unfortunately.
Kavanaugh nationalizing the race had to do with the culture war surrounding the allegations rather than a simple "SCOTUS fight fires up Rs".
Not convinced. The vast majority of people who base their vote even partially on the Supreme Court are either committed Ds or committed Rs.
This is my sense too. I'd be curious to see any evidence that supreme court vacancies have any impact on senate elections.