It would be great if you guys could list the 10 most likely candidates who could flip seats in the house AND where small dollar contributions might actually make a difference.
I'd assume many of the likeliest to flip are the results of redistricting in CA, UT, or (fingers crossed), VA. Some of those may be easy flips, others tougher.
That gives one 10 GOP held House seats between Tossup & Tilt D. There are no GOP held seats in their Lean D (10 Dem) or Likely D (7 Dem) categories. However:
Indeed. Gave to my State Senator Pete Harckham recently - I’ve met him, he’s a nice guy, and his seat isn’t exactly Safe D based on past elections. (Although my State Assemblyman Chris Burdick is not in any real trouble, I gave money to his campaign anyway as a kind of thank you to his office for assisting with a personal constituent services issue involving a state agency. Constituent services are important!)
I'm curious as to how many (D)-aligned candidates running for congressional or senate bids have a national security/military veteran background and if any aligned PACs (e.g. VoteVets) have had a strong influence in choosing successful candidates post-primaries in prior years
Also if anybody is interested in reading U.S. foreign policy and regional affairs, I write pieces on current events.
VA-Sen, Mark Moran (newly-I): I would say there's probably no good way to respond to the question "You taking jew money?" but I think "No." is not one of the better ones.
That dude is a joke. Mark Warner said the other day that a data center moratorium was idiocy. If Moran was anywhere near a serious candidate, he would be able to make a case against Warner. I'm not saying he would come close to winning if he had stayed in the primary, but I bet there is a noticeable anti-Warner voting bloc out there.
The president has defied political gravity so many times that he’s often assumed to be invincible. But Trump’s Iran war is inescapable, his approval rating is plummeting—and his rambling White House address exposed that he’s less powerful than ever. “
The WH is war gaming $200/barrel oil* and even if the war ended right now analysists aren't predicting oil to drop to around pre-war levels until 2028.
*You'd think they would have been planning for this before they started dropping bombs on Iran.
I agree that we need a bit more but these numbers are closing in on those in 2018 where PB was roughly at 57-43 D in the GOV race and the state races were close c 1%. difference
Also I've been told by somebody in the know that some serious oppo-akin to that in NC with Robinson-will be dropping soon against Donalds. Don't know what but comes from a pretty credible source.
Dade seems likely to be a swing county for the foreseeable future. The Dem ceiling is still probably close to 2016, but 2024 might not even be the Dem floor.
Party favorability doesn't seem that important at this point. We just need to turn out the double haters, or the people who are in the blue tent but won't admit to it.
Andre Carson is the incumbent Congressman, and he doesn't appear to be in serious danger of losing renomination, even if only one of the three primary challengers were running against him. It's interesting that Carson has three primary challengers, all three of which are not obscure figures in Indiana politics.
Please consider tracking the makeup of each stateʻs congressional delegation. The potential election tsunami has the potential of not only switching control of the House but also giving the Democrats the majority of the congressional delegations which can be very important.
The majority of state delegations really only matters for a contingent presidential election if there's an Electoral College deadlock, right? Ofc better to have more now, but seems like this doesn't especially matter until 2028.
Also: there are reasonable pathways to an electoral college tie. However, I struggle to imagine scenarios where that happens that also do not see republicans with a majority of house delegations. The way the states are drawn we're at a disadvantage for the house delegation metric: the only situation where we're winning it is when we've had an amazing election with big lead in votes. An amazing election for us would be one where winning the electoral college is effectively guaranteed.
No, but there's more signs for him to retire than her. Of course, there were a lot of calls for her retirement in 2016, but now he's throwing a celebration of 20 years on the court, not to mention all of the articles speculating his retirement.
Would give Antonio Reynoso the edge but would not be surprised if Claire Valdez pulls off an upset. Julie Won, meanwhile, isn't nearly as prominent as those two.
OK-Gov: Major Republican candidates include Attorney General Gentner Drummond and state Rep. Charles McCall, who are the leading contenders for a likely runoff, as well as Chip Keating and former state Sens. Jake Merrick and Mike Mazzei. State Rep. Cyndi Munson is currently running for the Democratic nomination unopposed.
OK-Lt. Gov: Major Republican candidates here include former state Rep. T.W. Shannon, state Reps. Justin Humphrey and Brian Hill, and state Sen. Darrell Weaver.
OK-Auditor: State Auditor Melissa Capps is unopposed for re-election.
OK-AG: Former state Rep. Jon Echols and state energy secretary Jeff Starling, both Republicans, are running to succeed AG Gentner Drummond, who is running for governor.
OK-Treasurer: State Treasurer Todd Russ is unopposed for re-election.
OK-Sen: Rep. Kevin Hern faces several minor candidates in the Republican primary while N'Kiyla Thomas, the most prominent Democrat running, appears to have dropped out.
OK-1: A large Republican field to succeed Rep. Kevin Hern has emerged - state Corporation Commissioner Kim David, state Rep. Mark Tedford, former congressional staffer Jed Cochran, retired colonel Dan Rooney, businessman Nathan Butterfield, pastor Jackson Lahmeyer and Navy veteran Jackson Stallings are the leading candidates.
OK-2 through 5: All other Republican members of Congress face little opposition for re-election.
It's happening right on cue (maybe a few months early) -- the Kondik/Trende/etc. pundit axis is trying to suggest ways for Republicans to avoid a wipeout in November, and have settled on a SCOTUS vacancy or Trump "nationalizing" the midterms in a way that brings home soft R's. IMO the reason the GOP is in the shitter is that the midterms are already nationalized from Trump-instigated tariffs, economic angst, wars, etc. Not sure how getting Trump out there more msolves that?
Also the logic on SCOTUS is wacky but open to being convinced otherwise -- it's a different dynamic being a sitting Dem Senator having to make that call vs. a candidate. And there's no doubt the R choice would get confirmed. (I also think "Kavanaugh saved the Senate in 2018" has been too widely blamed as a reason that we lost IN, MO, ND other than they are red states and the GOP ran shitty candidates in each race previously).
I mostly worry about us winning the Senate and a SCOTUS vacancy in the lame duck.
It would be great if you guys could list the 10 most likely candidates who could flip seats in the house AND where small dollar contributions might actually make a difference.
The Downballot isn't into the ratings game so I doubt they would do that. However, some of the regulars here may.
As for your second request it is difficult to do until all the fundraising numbers are out which won't be until a couple days after April 15.
Decision Desk HQ’s Substack has content like that
https://substack.com/@decisiondeskhq/note/c-225347225?r=8w3w3&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I'd assume many of the likeliest to flip are the results of redistricting in CA, UT, or (fingers crossed), VA. Some of those may be easy flips, others tougher.
Inside Elections: Race ratings:
1. Tossup: 10 (8 GOP, 2 Dem)
GOP: AZ-01, AZ-06, CO-8, IA-01, MI-07, NY-17, PA-07, VA-02.
Dem: OH-01 (Landsman), TX-34 (Gonzalez)
---------------------
2. Tilt D: 8 (2 GOP, 6 Dem)
GOP: CA-48, NE-02
Dem: CA-13, CA-45, NM-02, NY-04, TX-28, WA-03.
---------------
That gives one 10 GOP held House seats between Tossup & Tilt D. There are no GOP held seats in their Lean D (10 Dem) or Likely D (7 Dem) categories. However:
3. Tilt GOP: 7 (6 GOP, 1 Dem)
GOP: CA-22, MI-10, NJ-07, PA-08, PA-10, WI-03.
Dem: OH-09 (Kaptur).
https://insideelections.com/ratings/house
As to where small $$ would make the most difference? That is gonna be more granular.
Race to the White House will give you a % breakdown for many Congressional races. In their opinion, of course.
Race to the Whote House is a bit more aggressively D leaning in their forecasts.
GOP held only:
Likely D: CA-01
Lean D: CA-48
Tilt D: AZ-06, CO-08, NE-02, VA-02
Tossup: AZ-01, CA-22, IA-01,IA-03, MI-07, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-17, PA-01, PA-07, PA-10, WI-03.
https://www.racetothewh.com/house
RttWH defines:
Tossup: 60-40 seats
Tilt: 60-40 to 75-25
Lean: 75-25 to 85-15
Likely: 85-15 to 95-5
Safe: 95-5
"where small dollar contributions might actually make a difference" State legislative races.
Indeed. Gave to my State Senator Pete Harckham recently - I’ve met him, he’s a nice guy, and his seat isn’t exactly Safe D based on past elections. (Although my State Assemblyman Chris Burdick is not in any real trouble, I gave money to his campaign anyway as a kind of thank you to his office for assisting with a personal constituent services issue involving a state agency. Constituent services are important!)
I'm curious as to how many (D)-aligned candidates running for congressional or senate bids have a national security/military veteran background and if any aligned PACs (e.g. VoteVets) have had a strong influence in choosing successful candidates post-primaries in prior years
Also if anybody is interested in reading U.S. foreign policy and regional affairs, I write pieces on current events.
Virginia Redistricting Referendum WaPo poll
Likely Voters
Yes 52%
No 47%
Registered Voters
Yes 53%
No 44%
Trump Approval
Disapprove 57%
Approve 40%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/0eee4c34-9746-492b-babe-116e433209d1.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2
Narrow, but winning. And very few undecided.
Based on some recent national polling, Virginia would be to the right of the country as a whole if Trump's approval rating is 40% in Virginia.
Highly unlikely and indicates they have a pretty tight LV panel. They also only had Spanberger ahead by +8 in their final LV poll.
I think this was where his approval rating was last November in the exit polls
VA-Sen, Mark Moran (newly-I): I would say there's probably no good way to respond to the question "You taking jew money?" but I think "No." is not one of the better ones.
https://x.com/itsmarkmoran/status/2039787314688213342
The good way to answer that question is to proudly say that they are, in fact, taking "Jew money" (whatever that is).
Very weirdly worded
That dude is a joke. Mark Warner said the other day that a data center moratorium was idiocy. If Moran was anywhere near a serious candidate, he would be able to make a case against Warner. I'm not saying he would come close to winning if he had stayed in the primary, but I bet there is a noticeable anti-Warner voting bloc out there.
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/warner-ai-data-center-moratorium-aoc-idiocy
Democratic Rep Bill Owens election redux part 2? Democrats may have an opening in NY21:
https://x.com/AlexBGault/status/2039785510554439755
This means that even if Constantino wins the Republican primary in June (if there is one), Smullen will be on the ballot in November.
I’ve been told the Conservative Party specifically asked that Smullen keep their party line no matter what happens with the GOP primary.
Wish Blake Gendebien actually had a claim to being somewhat liberal. Can't even say if he voted for Harris or not.
Still, better him than the sticker CEO MAGAloon.
Just saw that Dylan Hewitt filed with Working Families, despite dropping out of the Democratic primary.
https://publicreporting.elections.ny.gov/WhoFiled/WhoFiled
Media are using the K word to describe Trump’s presidency and the war in Iran.
https://x.com/PeterHamby/status/2039868120375157169
New
@PuckNews
The poll numbers tell the story. And so do gas prices. And mortgage rates. Even corn futures.
Trump is at his weakest — and he did it to himself.
https://puck.news/is-iran-trumps-katrina/
@PuckNews
“ Trump’s Katrina
The president has defied political gravity so many times that he’s often assumed to be invincible. But Trump’s Iran war is inescapable, his approval rating is plummeting—and his rambling White House address exposed that he’s less powerful than ever. “
https://archive.ph/K5wy5
I don’t think most Americans have any idea what’s coming next regarding gas prices.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/02/dated-brent-oil-price-actual-cargo-highest-level-2008.html
Brent oil spot price for actual cargo soars to $141, highest level since 2008 financial crisis
Will it surpass 2022 Biden levels?
Adjusted for inflation maybe not, but it’ll probably be similar numbers
The WH is war gaming $200/barrel oil* and even if the war ended right now analysists aren't predicting oil to drop to around pre-war levels until 2028.
*You'd think they would have been planning for this before they started dropping bombs on Iran.
New Florida downballot poll:
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2040049196103766150
FLORIDA POLL: (Palm Beach county only)
Governor
🟦 David Jolly: 49%
🟥 Byron Donalds: 40%
—
Senate
🟦 Alex Vindman: 46%
🟥 Ashley Moody (inc): 42%
——
Job Approval
Gov DeSantis: 47-47 (=)
Pres. Trump: 38-56 (-18)
St. Pete Polls /
@Fla_Pol
| LV | 3/30-31
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/788769-poll-dems-on-statewide-ballot-lead-in-palm-beach-buoyed-by-disdain-for-donald-trump/
We’re gonna need bigger spreads than that in Palm. Ugh we might soon be down to just Broward as a D county in SoFlo
I agree that we need a bit more but these numbers are closing in on those in 2018 where PB was roughly at 57-43 D in the GOV race and the state races were close c 1%. difference
Also I've been told by somebody in the know that some serious oppo-akin to that in NC with Robinson-will be dropping soon against Donalds. Don't know what but comes from a pretty credible source.
Here's hoping it doesn't come out until after the primary.
Yeah, I don't know if Florida could make it through Fishback without descending into utter chaos.
Dade seems likely to be a swing county for the foreseeable future. The Dem ceiling is still probably close to 2016, but 2024 might not even be the Dem floor.
It will be a while before Florida is winnable again statewide but hopefully we make strong advances downballot
Democrats aren’t over performing from the base alone.
https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2040038787418398797
🚨NEW from
@cnn
🚨
➡️Victories in Florida provided more evidence that Dems are not just motivating the base but WINNING over Republicans and independents.
➡️Both Democrats overperformed 2024 presidential margins by an amount larger than the shift in partisan turnout.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/01/politics/democrats-elections-flip-seats
Yeah, if that portends to all legislative seats up this year, Rs are going to lose seats they thought were safe.
I want this to be a fucking wipeout for the GOP in November.
New GCB Poll:
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2040076772356575495
CNN/SSRS POLL - Generic Ballot
Registered voters:
🟦 Democrats: 48%
🟥 Republicans: 42%
——
Most Motivated voters:
🟦 Democrats: 57%
🟥 Republicans: 38%
——
"Double Haters"
🟦 Democrats: 55%
🟥 Republicans: 24%
——
Party Favorability:
Democrats: 28% favorable
Republicans: 32% favorable
3/26-30 | RV
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/cnn-poll-double-haters-democrats-midterms
Party favorability doesn't seem that important at this point. We just need to turn out the double haters, or the people who are in the blue tent but won't admit to it.
The Democratic primary in 7th Congressional District in Indiana has four candidates:
https://mirrorindy.org/7th-congressional-district-andre-carson-destiny-wells-george-hornedo-2026-primary/?emci=fc6a34a1-c12e-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&emdi=d21a7e73-502f-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&ceid=630426
I'm watching from afar, as this is not my district.
Andre Carson is the incumbent Congressman, and he doesn't appear to be in serious danger of losing renomination, even if only one of the three primary challengers were running against him. It's interesting that Carson has three primary challengers, all three of which are not obscure figures in Indiana politics.
Please consider tracking the makeup of each stateʻs congressional delegation. The potential election tsunami has the potential of not only switching control of the House but also giving the Democrats the majority of the congressional delegations which can be very important.
According to my math, Dems have an edge in 18 delegations. We could easily lose ME-02. Assuming D holds in NJ special and GOP holds in GA & CA.
+1: VT, DE, VA,
+2: HI, RI, ME, NH, NV
+3: NM
+4: OR
+5: CT
+6: MD, WA, NJ
+9: MA
+11: IL
+12: NY
+34: CA
----------
Even: CO, MN
-1: MI, AK
-2: KS,
-3: PA, AZ
-4: WI, GA, IA
-5: OH
-6: NC
-12: TX
I left a lot of GOP states off. But that is 31.
In the contingency election, only the Reps from 50 states can vote.
18 delegations with D edge, 2 tied. Which means 30 with R edge.
The majority of state delegations really only matters for a contingent presidential election if there's an Electoral College deadlock, right? Ofc better to have more now, but seems like this doesn't especially matter until 2028.
Also: there are reasonable pathways to an electoral college tie. However, I struggle to imagine scenarios where that happens that also do not see republicans with a majority of house delegations. The way the states are drawn we're at a disadvantage for the house delegation metric: the only situation where we're winning it is when we've had an amazing election with big lead in votes. An amazing election for us would be one where winning the electoral college is effectively guaranteed.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/samuel-alito-hospital-philadelphia-march
Alito was hospitalized last month.
Yeah, he's retiring. Trump will get a 4th SCOTUS justice.
No guarantee he retires. He could be in it for the long haul like RBG.
No, but there's more signs for him to retire than her. Of course, there were a lot of calls for her retirement in 2016, but now he's throwing a celebration of 20 years on the court, not to mention all of the articles speculating his retirement.
I don't think this hospitalization will change his calculus on whether or not he retires, though.
interviewing candidates in NY-07 today and they both seem really impressive w/ endorsements and such. Who has the edge?
Would give Antonio Reynoso the edge but would not be surprised if Claire Valdez pulls off an upset. Julie Won, meanwhile, isn't nearly as prominent as those two.
https://filings.okelections.gov/ViewCandidates/2026040120260403/99/all
Oklahoma candidate filing deadline:
OK-Gov: Major Republican candidates include Attorney General Gentner Drummond and state Rep. Charles McCall, who are the leading contenders for a likely runoff, as well as Chip Keating and former state Sens. Jake Merrick and Mike Mazzei. State Rep. Cyndi Munson is currently running for the Democratic nomination unopposed.
OK-Lt. Gov: Major Republican candidates here include former state Rep. T.W. Shannon, state Reps. Justin Humphrey and Brian Hill, and state Sen. Darrell Weaver.
OK-Auditor: State Auditor Melissa Capps is unopposed for re-election.
OK-AG: Former state Rep. Jon Echols and state energy secretary Jeff Starling, both Republicans, are running to succeed AG Gentner Drummond, who is running for governor.
OK-Treasurer: State Treasurer Todd Russ is unopposed for re-election.
OK-Sen: Rep. Kevin Hern faces several minor candidates in the Republican primary while N'Kiyla Thomas, the most prominent Democrat running, appears to have dropped out.
OK-1: A large Republican field to succeed Rep. Kevin Hern has emerged - state Corporation Commissioner Kim David, state Rep. Mark Tedford, former congressional staffer Jed Cochran, retired colonel Dan Rooney, businessman Nathan Butterfield, pastor Jackson Lahmeyer and Navy veteran Jackson Stallings are the leading candidates.
OK-2 through 5: All other Republican members of Congress face little opposition for re-election.
It's happening right on cue (maybe a few months early) -- the Kondik/Trende/etc. pundit axis is trying to suggest ways for Republicans to avoid a wipeout in November, and have settled on a SCOTUS vacancy or Trump "nationalizing" the midterms in a way that brings home soft R's. IMO the reason the GOP is in the shitter is that the midterms are already nationalized from Trump-instigated tariffs, economic angst, wars, etc. Not sure how getting Trump out there more msolves that?
Also the logic on SCOTUS is wacky but open to being convinced otherwise -- it's a different dynamic being a sitting Dem Senator having to make that call vs. a candidate. And there's no doubt the R choice would get confirmed. (I also think "Kavanaugh saved the Senate in 2018" has been too widely blamed as a reason that we lost IN, MO, ND other than they are red states and the GOP ran shitty candidates in each race previously).
I mostly worry about us winning the Senate and a SCOTUS vacancy in the lame duck.
Judging by the Alito comment above, there may be a vacancy before November, unfortunately.
Kavanaugh nationalizing the race had to do with the culture war surrounding the allegations rather than a simple "SCOTUS fight fires up Rs".