Morning Digest: Why are Michigan Republicans trying to boost this Democrat?

GOP money floods a Democratic primary ahead of a pivotal special election

Pamela Pugh is a Democratic candidate in a key special election for the Michigan State Senate (credit: Pamela Pugh campaign website)

Leading Off

MI State Senate

Republicans are meddling in next Tuesday’s Democratic primary in an effort to pick their opponent in a pivotal May 5 special election for a seat in the Michigan State Senate.

The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger reports that a prominent GOP consulting firm is financing an obscure group that’s run digital ads and sent out mailers praising State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh.

The outfit, with the misleading name “ProgressiveMI,” has been telling voters that Pugh will “stand up to ICE” and “make Medicare for all a reality.” The Midland Daily News’ Abigail VanderMolen says that ProgressiveMI has spent nearly $120,000 on online advertising so far.

Pugh is one of six candidates competing for the Democratic nomination for the 35th District, a competitive seat that has been without representation since Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet stepped down over a year ago after winning a 2024 bid for Congress.

With Democrats holding just a 19-18 advantage in the 38-member Senate, the vacancy opened up the possibility that the GOP could force a tie by flipping this district. Likely because of that fear, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer allowed the seat to remain unfilled by declining to call a special election for most of last year.

It was only just before Labor Day—and in the face of legal action—that the governor finally scheduled the contest for the following spring.

The two main Democrats competing in next week’s primary are Pugh, who was elected statewide twice to the State Board of Education, and Chedrick Greene, a fire captain in Saginaw who worked for McDonald Rivet when she was in the legislature.

The other four Democrats seeking the 35th District, which is located at the crook between the state’s Thumb and the rest of its “mitten,” have attracted far less money and attention than the frontrunners.

In December, McDonald Rivet backed Greene over Pugh, whom she defeated in the 2024 primary for the 8th Congressional District.

Fundraising committees connected to state Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks and her allies have also contributed to Greene, who has raised more than twice as much as her chief rival. While Brinks has not issued an endorsement, she responded to Mauger’s inquiries by praising Greene for having “given his life to serving his community and his campaign embodies that commitment to service over self.”

The state Democratic Party, by contrast, has remained publicly neutral in the primary. Party chair Curtis Hertel, though, denounced Republicans for trying to interfere in the Democratic contest.

“Voters of the 35th District deserve to be able to make a decision about bogus ads from the MAGA Republicans,” he said Tuesday in a conference call condemning ProgressiveMI’s activities.

When Hertel was asked why he thought Republicans had a preferred opponent, he responded, “You would have to talk to [ProgressiveMI], although that would be hard because they’re all dark-money groups.” Mauger, though, writes that Pugh’s intraparty skeptics believe her progressive stances would make her an easier opponent for Republicans to attack.

Pugh’s team has likewise denounced the GOP’s meddling, but her campaign is also drawing attention to the activities of a different outside organization that’s been attacking her.

“[T]he only flyers we’ve seen were the negative, racist ones from Michigan Vindicated, darkening Pamela Pugh’s face,” a spokesperson told Mauger.

Pugh, who, like Greene, is Black, was the target of mailers from that group last month. Michigan Vindicated has been active in recent mayoral elections in Michigan, but there’s no word on who is funding its offensive against Pugh.

Republicans, meanwhile, have a four-way primary next week. Businessman Christian Velasquez has raised considerably more money than the rest of the field and has endorsements from dozens of current and former local elected officials.

His main rival appears to be former prosecutor Jason Tunney, who has the backing of the state branch of the Koch network’s Americans for Prosperity. The other two candidates have brought in little in the way of funding.

The eventual nominees will have three months to prepare for what will be a closely watched special election.

According to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the 35th District by just a 49.7 to 48.9 margin, a touch closer than Joe Biden’s 51-48 win four years earlier. And when McDonald Rivet first won the seat in 2022, the race was also tight: She defeated Republican Annette Glenn, then a member of the state House, 53-47.

A victory for McDonald Rivet’s party would restore Democrats to the two-seat majority they won in 2022, when they took control of the upper chamber for the first time since the 1980s.

A GOP pickup, though, would deadlock the Senate 19-19. While Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist would still be able to break ties in such a scenario, observers believe that a single Republican senator could thwart him by abstaining—a tactic that would prevent Democrats from obtaining the requisite majority needed to pass a bill without creating a tie for Gilchrist to break.

Democrats have so far managed to avoid this problem because, with the 35th District vacant, a majority is defined as 19 out of 37 sitting senators. The math would change, though, if a Republican wins McDonald Rivet’s old constituency and restores the full membership to 38.

No matter how things go on May 5, though, every seat in the state Senate will be up again on Nov. 3 for new four-year terms. That same day will also decide control of the state House, where the GOP has a small 58-52 advantage, as well as who will replace the termed-out Whitmer as governor.

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The Downballot Podcast

The Twin Cities’ fierce response to ICE—at the ballot box

Ordinary Americans in Minnesota have shown extraordinary courage in standing up to ICE’s terror campaign, and on Tuesday night, they just delivered another blow: at the ballot box. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the results of an astonishing special election in St. Paul that set all kinds of records for Democrats—and shows that any attempt by Donald Trump to rig the midterms by deploying his goon squads could backfire very badly indeed.

The Davids also chat with veteran election watcher Geoffrey Skelley, who is now chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ. Skelley tells us how DDHQ, long a source for results on election night, is expanding its coverage to give better context for all the data it produces. He also shares his thoughts on some high-leverage Senate primaries and explains some of the surprising reasons why House retirements have spiked in recent years.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Virginia voters support Democrats’ proposed constitutional amendment to allow lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map by a 51-43 margin, according to a new poll from Christopher Newport University.

The survey is the first we’ve seen on the amendment, though as we saw in the run-up to California’s vote on a similar measure last year—which yielded highly variable polling numbers—question wording can have a major impact. CNU’s full question can be found here.

While both chambers of the legislature have voted to refer the amendment to voters for a likely April 21 special election, the measure’s path to the ballot was clouded by a ruling from a state judge earlier this week saying it could not proceed because Democrats failed to follow certain procedural rules. Democrats have already appealed.

4Q Fundraising

• FL-27: Richard Lamondin (D): $230,000 raised

• MI-07: Tom Barrett (R-inc): $1.09 million raised, $1.9 million cash on hand

• MO-01: Cori Bush (D): $527,000 raised, $204,000 cash on hand

Governors

PA-Gov, WI-Gov

Donald Trump just fired off a host of endorsements in several key races, including in two gubernatorial contests in swing states.

In Pennsylvania, he gave his backing to state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who does not face any serious opposition in the GOP primary to take on Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro.

Meanwhile, in the battle for Wisconsin’s open governorship, Trump endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany in the race to replace retiring Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. Tiffany’s sole notable opponent for the Republican nod, Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, responded to Trump’s move by dropping out of the race.

Two other Republicans who had been hanging around the sidelines have also said they won’t enter the race. Businessman Matt Neuman told WisPolitics’ JR Ross that he won’t run, while according to a Ross source, rich guy Tim Michels told Trump he wouldn’t run earlier this month.

Democrats, by contrast, have a multi-way primary featuring more than half a dozen candidates.

House

CA-11

San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, one of three major Democrats seeking to succeed Nancy Pelosi, just received the backing of the San Francisco Labor Council, which Politico calls “the city’s most powerful union coalition.”

Recently, Chan also earned endorsements from the California Teachers Association, which is the state’s largest teachers’ union, and the California Federation of Teachers, its second-biggest. Chan’s main rivals in the race are wealthy progressive activist Saikat Chakrabarti and state Sen. Scott Wiener.

FL-16

Just about everyone in Florida politics agrees that state Sen. Joe Gruters, whom Donald Trump picked last year to chair the Republican National Committee, would be the frontrunner if he were to run for the open 16th Congressional District, but there’s no such consensus on whether he even wants the job.

Politico writes that two unnamed sources say Gruters is not interested in succeeding GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan, who announced Tuesday that he will not seek reelection. Another nameless person, though, says that Gruters “wouldn’t shut any doors just yet.”

On the Democratic side, the site mentions former state Rep. Adam Hattersley as a possible option for this conservative seat.

IA-02, WI-07

Two more new Donald Trump endorsements (see our PA-Gov, WI-Gov item above) came in a pair of House races, at least one of which could be competitive in November.

Trump blessed former state Rep. Joe Mitchell in the Republican primary for Iowa’s 2nd District, which is open because Rep. Ashley Hinson is running for Senate. Mitchell faces just one prominent opponent, state Sen. Charlie McClintock, while Democrats also have a pair of notable candidates hoping to flip this GOP-leaning seat, pastor Clint Twedt-Ball and state Rep. Lindsay James.

Trump’s choice in Wisconsin’s 7th District is Michael Alfonso, a podcaster producer whose main qualification is that he’s the son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Fox host Rachel Campos-Duffy. Trump himself didn’t even mention the candidate’s background in his Truth Social post gushing about Alfonso’s in-laws.

At least three other major Republicans are running for this constituency, which is considerably more conservative than Iowa’s 2nd, while Democrats are fielding former state Rep. Fred Clark.

IL-04

Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez announced Wednesday that he would run as an independent for Illinois’ open 4th Congressional District.

Sigcho-Lopez is running to succeed Rep. Chuy Garcia, who engineered his retirement to ensure that only his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, would be able to file to run in next year’s Democratic primary.

The new candidate, an outspoken progressive who was elected to the City Council as a Democrat in 2019, began talking about a possible unaffiliated run in November after Garcia unexpectedly ended his reelection campaign.

Since then, though, another notable Democrat, Mayra Macias, kicked off her own independent campaign. Both Macias, a former executive director of the Latino Victory Fund, and Sigcho-Lopez have until May 26 to turn in 10,816 valid signatures, which is more than 15 times as many as Patty Garcia had to submit.

The 4th District voted for Kamala Harris by a 63-35 margin, so there’s no chance that the lone little-known Republican on the ballot, pharmacy technician Lupe Castillo, can win. (Castillo also ran in 2024, taking just 27% of the vote.)

But if two prominent independents both qualify for the ballot, that would likely make it harder for a single candidate to capitalize on anger over the attempted Garcia-to-Garcia handoff and consolidate the votes needed to thwart it.

LA-05

Republican state Rep. Dixon McMakin announced Wednesday that he would seek Louisiana’s open 5th District, while later that same day, former Rep. Garret Graves, whom McMakin previously said he would defer to, revealed that he would not wage a comeback.

McMakin, who was first elected to the legislature in 2023, may be better known for his new role as the public address announcer for Louisiana State University’s football games. McMakin, after being selected for that gig last year, told the Louisiana Illuminator, “This was not a political pick. I just happened to be a guy that was elected when I got picked.”

SC-06

South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn has yet to announce whether he’ll seek an 18th term, but NOTUS reports that four unnamed sources “close to” the 85-year-old congressman expect him to do so.

While Clyburn did not respond to the publication’s requests for comment, NOTUS notes that his campaign recently sent out a fundraising email. South Carolina’s candidate filing deadline is March 30.

TX-09

The far-right Club for Growth is flexing its muscles in the GOP primary for Texas’ open 9th District, issuing an endorsement of Army veteran Alex Mealer and launching a round of attack ads against state Rep. Briscoe Cain, who is the favorite of Gov. Greg Abbott.

It’s not yet clear how much the Club plans to spend, but the deep-pocketed organization is known for its history of heavy expenditures in primaries. Several other Republicans are also vying for the nomination in the 9th, a Democratic seat that the GOP radically gerrymandered last year to make it a near-certain flip.

Poll Pile

• LA-Sen (R): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Bill Cassidy: Bill Cassidy (inc): 32, Julia Letlow: 21, John Fleming: 16, Blake Miguez: 9, Eric Skrmetta: 1.

• MN-Sen (D): GQR (D) for Peggy Flanagan: Peggy Flanagan: 49, Angie Craig: 36.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): David Binder Research (D) for California Environmental Voters: Chad Bianco (R): 17, Steve Hilton (R): 14, Katie Porter (D): 11, Eric Swalwell (D): 11, Tom Steyer (D): 8, Xavier Becerra (D): 5, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 3, Tony Thurmond (D): 2, others 1 or less, undecided: 25.