In a race between McMorrow and Rogers, 46% support McMorrow and 43% Rogers; 12% are undecided. In a matchup between Stevens and Rogers, 47% support Stevens and 42% Rogers; 11% are undecided. Between El-Sayed and Rogers, 43% support each candidate; 15% are undecided.
"The first Emerson College survey of the race to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters finds a close battle between the top three candidates, McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “McMorrow’s strength is among voters over 60 (37%), while El-Sayed’s is strongest among voters under 30, with 24%; Steven’s support is relatively consistent among age groups."
The rumors of her entering in Tuesday didn't make sense. The caucuses are that day, and she wants to have a few days to line up delegate candidates in advance of that.
I wonder if Lisa Demuth has any regrets whatsoever for causing this mess in MN. Her own daughter disowned her after the Good murder, her battled incumbent rival withdrew from the race and got replaced with Klobuchar.
She should be run out of the state and tarred and feathered, among other things. Because of her, TWO innocent U.S. citizens got murdered by ICE. I can't see this year's election putting her in the governor's office or the GOP winning one state House. Thanks to her, MN will likely regain a DFL trifecta.
This is due to City Journal, Christopher Rufo's "noticing" investigation with a fake account from a fictitious cop who said MN tax money was financing Al Shabaab and Nick Shirley's videos.
I'm really glad Iowa law requires the governor to announce a special election date within five days of a vacancy in the state legislature arising, and has some provisions to ensure vacancies don't remain unfilled throughout a state legislative session.
Governor Kim Reynolds has played some political games with special elections (most recently scheduling an Iowa Senate election in a blue district for December 30), but there would be no way for her to hold a seat open for many months.
Hard to say but Wiener just had a run in with the SF Police Officers Association that indicates he's kind of weird with his view on them.
He once said he would not take money from the POA but now he's showing he's got their back. If you ask me, Wiener seems to be willing to anything and everything he can to get coalitions, even if he has to flip flop.
If unions end up supporting Chakrabarti, it's likely because he's got more fire in his ability to fight. I really don't know what he's done so far in his efforts to win over unions but if this means I support Chakrabarti in the general election, that's fine. He's already got plenty of good ideas on his platform, especially with AI regulation.
It’s rarely a good sign when the people you’re trying to win over are frantically googling your name to fact-check you in real time.
That was the scene on Wednesday when state Sen. Scott Wiener visited the San Francisco Police Officers Association in an effort to convince the board he is a strong backer of the cops. He also pointed to what he described as a long history of support for the union, according to meeting minutes.
Wiener is in a three-way race for the congressional seat held by the retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, against progressive Supervisor Connie Chan and Saikat Chakrabarti, former chief of staff for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
As Wiener stood inside the POA headquarters at 800 Bryant St. and pitched his candidacy to the board of the organization, which represents more than 2,000 officers, roughly 30 cops peppered him with questions about his past, at times reading directly from news articles they’d found on their phones.
Some questioned Wiener’s portrayal of himself as an ally of the POA, pointing to his criticism of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a pledge never to accept donations from police unions.
Wiener has never explicitly supported defunding the police. In 2020, however, he vowed to no longer take(opens in new tab) campaign money from law enforcement unions like the POA, donating $20,000 he’d received from such groups to youth organizations.
Did Saikat support defund the police at its peak? I don't think so but he was one of the first people to introduce "Abolish ICE" in progressive platforms along with the now disgraced pollster Sean McElwee.
I think his idea of creating a federal agency for financing housing is good. The lack of such an initiative is one of drivers behind the housing crisis.
I don't know about Defunding the Police but right now, Chakrabarti seems to be more focused on being an anti-ICE candidate. It's easy for him to do because there are far more atrocities by ICE being reported by the media than what local police are doing. That of course shouldn't saturate the fact that police can still potentially commit acts that go against what serving and protecting is all about.
Yes, I agree on the federal agency for financing housing. I'm more of a Connie Chan kind of guy right now but would be happy to support Chakrabarti in the general election. His efforts on housing seem to be more focused on equity, especially affordable housing which San Francisco needs a lot of.
With Klobuchar's formal announcement for governor (and almost certain general election success for her and Bennet), I wanted to look at the Senate committee musical chairs so far. I only go down seniority up to the next ranking/chair.
Judiciary
1. Dick Durbin – retiring
2. Sheldon Whitehouse
Environment
1. Sheldon Whitehouse
2. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
3. Jeff Merkley
Budget
1. Jeff Merkley – going to Environment
2. Patty Murray – not going to leave Appropriations
3. Ron Wyden – not going to leave Finance
4. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
5. Sheldon Whitehouse – not going to leave Judiciary
6. Mark Warner – not going to leave Intel
7. Tim Kaine
Agriculture
1. Amy Klobuchar – retiring
2. Michael Bennet – retiring
3. Tina Smith – retiring
4. Dick Durbin – retiring
5. Cory Booker
Foreign Relations
1. Jeanne Shaheen – retiring
2. Chris Coons
Ethics – need new appointees, this is the whole Dem membership
1. Chris Coons – going to Foreign Relations
2. Brian Schatz – not going to leave Indian Affairs
Another reason for Dems to take Senate: judiciary chair Lyndsey Graham vs Sheldon Whitehouse.
Lots of openings for newer Dem leadership. Booker leading Ag seems odd. Maybe Padilla goes there and Booker to Economic. Slotkin on ethics? Whatever new faces in new places would be a good thing.
That's not how the Senate works. People don't bounce around and parachute in from other committees. Padilla isn't even on Ag, nor is Booker on the Joint Econ Committee (JEC) that also does very little and wouldn't want that anyway. Senate Ethics is kind of a crapshoot because it also does almost nothing and is extremely disempowered compared to House Ethics (which isn't like oozing with power but actually routinely investigates where the Senate doesn't).
Unless there is a serious health concern (like Dianne Feinstein), it ticks along by seniority.
Despite being the most densely populated state, much of New Jersey is covered in fertile farmland, particularly in the South, where agriculture is a main industry.
Also, some of the NYC reps took leadership roles on House Ag years ago because of how important food assistance programs are in their districts and, I assume, in parts of NJ as well.
Sheldon Whitehouse would be a terrific chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee! If you have not yet seen them, I encourage you to watch his series of in-Senate lectures detailing how dark money and Leonard Leo’s machinations have captured the US Supreme Court and many other courts in our land.
While I disagree with Whitehouse on this one issue, I do understand how many people see Section 230 as problematic. Whether it remains in place or is repealed, there are major problems that must be dealt with. Either way, this is complex.
Ag also deals with food stamps and subsidies, both of which affect people in urban and suburban areas. New Jersey does have farming, though. Are you familiar with Jersey tomatoes?
Since a recent morning digest stated that the reason was unclear: "AIPAC made a statement in @PunchbowlNews explaining their $1.76 million expenditure against Tom Malinowski in #NJ11"
Thankfully, being at college on the west coast means I'm not seeing AIPAC slop ads yet. It's still funny how Way has two local endorsements, and yet so much money is being flushed away.
I saw/heard it twice while I was doing laundry last week, since they had the TV on. I doubt Democratic primary voters will believe he doesn't care about Trump, only about attacking Democrats, which is what the ad claims.
Matsui has been comfortably holding office in the 5/6/7th for over 20 years, her lowest vote share in the general being 66.75%. The list of legislative accomplishments leaves a lot to be desired especially for this kind of tenure, and that level of seat safety. Its been enough time and she deserves a healthy, robust primary.
Looking at a similar exercise for House committees. Harder to divine what will happen, since it's less based on seniority and need the steering recs and then full party caucus/conference votes to approve. So giving a wider range of who could run.
Only looking at retirements, rather than those who might be lose their primary or general. Separating those I think are extremely unlikely with em dashes, and my random thoughts in parentheses. For House Repubs, their rules are a hard three full terms TOTAL as ranking or chair, not separated like the Senate. So most of their changes are by term limits. Since more changes are happening on their side, doing House Repubs first.
Agriculture
1. Glenn Thompson – term limited
2. Frank Lucas – term limited
3. Austin Scott
4. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
5. Scott DesJarlais
Armed Services
1. Mike Rogers – term limited
2. Joe Wilson (old)
3. Mike Turner (not MAGA fav)
4. Rob Wittman (possibly redistricted out)
5. Austin Scott
6. Sam Graves
Budget
1. Jodey Arrington – retiring
2. Ralph Norman – retiring
3. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
4. Glenn Grothman
5. Lloyd Smucker
Judiciary
1. Jim Jordan – term limited
2. Darrell Issa (possibly redistricted out)
3. Andy Biggs – retiring
4. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
5. Tom Tiffany – retiring
6. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
7. Chip Roy – retiring
8. Scott Fitzgerald
9. Ben Cline (possibly redistricted out)
10. Lance Gooden
Oversight
1. Jim Comer – term limited
2. Jim Jordan
Transportation
1. Sam Graves – term limited
2. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
3. Daniel Webster (old)
4. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
5. Scott Perry (may lose general)
6. Brian Babin (old)
Veterans
1. Mike Bost – term limited
2. Amata Coleman Radewagen – Delegate (possible but Repubs won't, also old)
Well, Massie did win the 2024 GOP Primary with around 76% of the votes. It's going to be hard for a challenger to cut down on Massie's margins, especially considering Senator Rand Paul is endorsing him in the primary (both happen to hold Libertarian views, especially on war).
Yeah, I do think it's fairly unlikely he gets it overall, but not impossible. Trump obvi hates him and wouldn't want him to make any investigations bipartisan by joining Dems. But depending on how badly they do in November that fully lameducks the admin, House reps //might// not follow as slavishly? But I also imagine Massie isn't especially well liked. Certainly not by leadership, which makes steering recommending him a bit hard to see, and then I don't really know if the conference likes him enough to overrule them if they don't. Not sure the last time a party member vote went against the steering rec since Dems put Pallone over Eshoo for Energy and Commerce back in like 2014.
I'm shocked that implying liberal Democrats are in a cult while racing to the center—just as the party's base is moving left—turns out to be a bad political strategy.
She also wasn’t included on Majority Democrats’ “The Bench,” and my guess is that her name was seen as having an equal and opposite effect to the figures headlining the initiative, like Talarico and McMorrow.
She has endorsements from the majority of the state legislatures while Craig keeps touting her out of state endorsements from Reps like McBride and Ryan. No disrespect to them but nobody give a shit about them in Minnesota. Her fundraising is decent in terms of Senate primary standards, it’s that Craig is a prodigious fundraiser.
Depending on how one separates border security from the broader immigration question, there might not be a single issue the admin is now net positive on nine months to go to the midterms
Americans' favorite kind of republican is one that generates no news coverage except by making the occasional moderately intoned speech. With an OK or better economy, most republicans could come into office and do nothing and end up broadly popular. It would require real work to not fuck things up in the background, but they could successfully pursue conservative ideology under this direction so long as they weren't going particularly aggressive with it.
Kind of crazy that the only ones that got that memo are the northeastern republican governors. It's a relatively easy ticket to a good spot in the history books.
The Emerson poll and Trump’s stupid luring of Perry Johnson into the gubernatorial race make me feel a lot better about Michigan in general. I don’t see any realistic path for Rogers to beat McMorrow. I can imagine it with el-Sayed, or at least a very close race. Hopefully she gains a lot more momentum from this in fundraising and future polling.
For the Duggan problem in the gubernatorial race: is it best to try and get Benson to offer him the LG spot? Or just go nuclear on him? Perry Johnson nabbing Trump’s endorsement would make me feel like a spoiled race is less of a concern for Benson, but still one that should be taken seriously.
Apparently Trump does not want James to abandon his House seat. He's promised Johnson his endorsement in the gubernatorial primary if he reaches 20% in polling. Time for Dem groups to run ads saying that Perry Johnson is too MAGA for Michigan.
Don’t go nuclear on him and don’t offer him LG. Just wait for the inevitable “but if I vote Independent, someone I really DON’T want to win, could” realization by current Duggan voters who then shift to D or R and watch his support collapse to 5-10% at best by Election Day.
Maybe? But I mean Betsy Johnson was basically ignored in Oregon, her support collapsed from 20ish% down to single digits and almost every single independent candidate campaign for any race ever with both a Republican and Democrat also running has lost support from voters as election day gets closer. That’s only the latest race I can think of, there’s been plenty more. It’s what’s to be expected.
Whether this time is different, well, it could be! Maybe Duggan is a unicorn candidate, with a unique appeal. Maybe his campaign catches fire in Michigan. Maybe Duggan does need to be attacked, or tied to Perry Johnson, but if that is the case it would go against a lot of other races where what I said above actually happens.
There's a risk in targeting candidates: it makes voters consider them viable subconsciously.
Independent candidates routinely poll well early on and have their polling numbers steadily decline until election day, at which point they often underperform those late polls as well. This is a consistent pattern. It's not guaranteed but at least early on we can assume it's the most likely trajectory.
Attacking him should be kept as an option if he doesn't see that steady polling decline as summer ends and fall begins. Attack ads before then won't help us much, but could hurt.
Trump is personally underwater on Immigration but still slightly positive on Border Security, they remain the GOP's two strongest issues, but clearly public sentiment has turned, and is only growing more anti-ICE.
Word choice is going to be important here and the messaging will have to be district specific, if the Democrats truly want to extract and realize maximum gains on this issue. I don't think a wholesale "Abolish ICE" push is a good strategy heading into the midterms. I think "Reform" or "rebuild" or "clean up ICE" might be a better choice in a place like WA-3, where MGP holds an R+2 seat. AOC can hammer the word abolish in her district, for an obvious comparison. But in terms of taking the GOP down further on these issues, there is a ton of low-hanging fruit and messaging now available. Dems in very close districts can say, "we're not going to abolish ICE, but we are going to rebuild it, ground up. First thing, ICE will never again be allow to disarm and kill US citizens on the streets, full stop. ICE agents should be at LEAST as well trained as police, not less as they are currently. Some ICE officers wouldn't pass the entry process to get hired as mall security, and paramilitarizing these kinds of unqualified hires has resulted directly in the video you see every day."
I sense that border security as an issue may become a trap door because the more stories about abuses related to CBP/ICE facilities come out, the more likely border security will start to look more like Abu Ghraib than orderly removal.
Michigan Senate Emerson:
In a race between McMorrow and Rogers, 46% support McMorrow and 43% Rogers; 12% are undecided. In a matchup between Stevens and Rogers, 47% support Stevens and 42% Rogers; 11% are undecided. Between El-Sayed and Rogers, 43% support each candidate; 15% are undecided.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-crowded-democratic-senate-primary-remains-wide-open/
In the primary, McMorrow leads but nearly 4 in 10 are undecided.
It's the first primary poll to show a lead for her, pretty significant!
🙏
I would love to see her win the primary. She's the right candidate for the moment and for MI in particular.
Michigan Senate Democratic Primary
● Mallory McMorrow 22.4%
● Haley Stevens 16.5%
● Abdul El-Sayed 15.9%
Not sure: 38%
——
Fav-unfav (Dems)
McMorrow: 41-7 (+34)
El-Sayed: 38-7 (+31)
Stevens: 34-11 (+23)
——
@EmersonPolling
(A) | 1/24-25 | 491 LV
"The first Emerson College survey of the race to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters finds a close battle between the top three candidates, McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “McMorrow’s strength is among voters over 60 (37%), while El-Sayed’s is strongest among voters under 30, with 24%; Steven’s support is relatively consistent among age groups."
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2016836281091731457
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-crowded-democratic-senate-primary-remains-wide-open/
Another analysis by a McMorrow supporting pollster:
"Dems: 🟢 McMorrow +6
Indies: 🟢 McMorrow +8
White: 🟢 McMorrow +13
Black: 🟣 Stevens / 🟡 El-Sayed +9 (tie)
Age 18-29: 🟡 El-Sayed +10
Age 30-39: 🟣 Stevens +3
Age 40-49: 🟢 McMorrow +5
Age 50-59: 🟣 Stevens +4
Age 60+: 🟢 McMorrow +25
Men: 🟢 McMorrow +1
Women: 🟢 McMorrow +6
Long story short:
McMorrow's narrow lead is due to her large leads among seniors & those that say threats to democracy is the most important issue facing Michigan
And to a lesser extent her strength among white & more educated voters
But still a huge number of undecideds (38%)"
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/2016866210047004860
will never understand what people my age see in El-Sayed.
I guess we think he's progressive, which he is, but he isn't electable.
I think he'll win this cycle but has a high chance of losing in 6 years which is bad.
Wasn’t he effective in his public health job?
Based on these numbers, I'd guess that none of them are running ads yet.
All of them are, in fact.
Great to see McMorrow is getting the lead in polls. Hope she wins the primary.
WTF California ???!!!!! Get it together and coalesce!
primary isn't until June, I'm confident there will be some combination of withdrawals and people strategically moving their support.
It's way early, no one is thinking about the election, and only Steyer is running ads.
MN-Gov: It's official
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sen-amy-klobuchar-announces-run-minnesota-governor-amid/story?id=129660166
The rumors of her entering in Tuesday didn't make sense. The caucuses are that day, and she wants to have a few days to line up delegate candidates in advance of that.
I think people just misread "within a week" as "in a week"
Yeah...sorry about that. I commented that on here initially and had to edit it
https://x.com/amyklobuchar/status/2016843854054641696
Amy Klobuchar's launch video for Governor.
I wonder if Lisa Demuth has any regrets whatsoever for causing this mess in MN. Her own daughter disowned her after the Good murder, her battled incumbent rival withdrew from the race and got replaced with Klobuchar.
She should be run out of the state and tarred and feathered, among other things. Because of her, TWO innocent U.S. citizens got murdered by ICE. I can't see this year's election putting her in the governor's office or the GOP winning one state House. Thanks to her, MN will likely regain a DFL trifecta.
This is due to City Journal, Christopher Rufo's "noticing" investigation with a fake account from a fictitious cop who said MN tax money was financing Al Shabaab and Nick Shirley's videos.
Demuth used those lies to fan the flames. Her political future in MN (or anywhere other than a red state) is bleak.
I'm really glad Iowa law requires the governor to announce a special election date within five days of a vacancy in the state legislature arising, and has some provisions to ensure vacancies don't remain unfilled throughout a state legislative session.
Governor Kim Reynolds has played some political games with special elections (most recently scheduling an Iowa Senate election in a blue district for December 30), but there would be no way for her to hold a seat open for many months.
Who will all of these major labor unions gravitate towards if Chan doesn't make it to the general? Wiener or Chakrabarti?
Hard to say but Wiener just had a run in with the SF Police Officers Association that indicates he's kind of weird with his view on them.
He once said he would not take money from the POA but now he's showing he's got their back. If you ask me, Wiener seems to be willing to anything and everything he can to get coalitions, even if he has to flip flop.
If unions end up supporting Chakrabarti, it's likely because he's got more fire in his ability to fight. I really don't know what he's done so far in his efforts to win over unions but if this means I support Chakrabarti in the general election, that's fine. He's already got plenty of good ideas on his platform, especially with AI regulation.
.
.
.
https://sfstandard.com/2026/01/27/scott-wiener-sfpd-cops-union-nancy-pelosi/
It’s rarely a good sign when the people you’re trying to win over are frantically googling your name to fact-check you in real time.
That was the scene on Wednesday when state Sen. Scott Wiener visited the San Francisco Police Officers Association in an effort to convince the board he is a strong backer of the cops. He also pointed to what he described as a long history of support for the union, according to meeting minutes.
Wiener is in a three-way race for the congressional seat held by the retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, against progressive Supervisor Connie Chan and Saikat Chakrabarti, former chief of staff for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
As Wiener stood inside the POA headquarters at 800 Bryant St. and pitched his candidacy to the board of the organization, which represents more than 2,000 officers, roughly 30 cops peppered him with questions about his past, at times reading directly from news articles they’d found on their phones.
Some questioned Wiener’s portrayal of himself as an ally of the POA, pointing to his criticism of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a pledge never to accept donations from police unions.
Wiener has never explicitly supported defunding the police. In 2020, however, he vowed to no longer take(opens in new tab) campaign money from law enforcement unions like the POA, donating $20,000 he’d received from such groups to youth organizations.
Did Saikat support defund the police at its peak? I don't think so but he was one of the first people to introduce "Abolish ICE" in progressive platforms along with the now disgraced pollster Sean McElwee.
I think his idea of creating a federal agency for financing housing is good. The lack of such an initiative is one of drivers behind the housing crisis.
https://www.vox.com/politics/459236/housing-shortage-yimby-zoning-abundance-labor-tariffs
I don't know about Defunding the Police but right now, Chakrabarti seems to be more focused on being an anti-ICE candidate. It's easy for him to do because there are far more atrocities by ICE being reported by the media than what local police are doing. That of course shouldn't saturate the fact that police can still potentially commit acts that go against what serving and protecting is all about.
Yes, I agree on the federal agency for financing housing. I'm more of a Connie Chan kind of guy right now but would be happy to support Chakrabarti in the general election. His efforts on housing seem to be more focused on equity, especially affordable housing which San Francisco needs a lot of.
With Klobuchar's formal announcement for governor (and almost certain general election success for her and Bennet), I wanted to look at the Senate committee musical chairs so far. I only go down seniority up to the next ranking/chair.
Judiciary
1. Dick Durbin – retiring
2. Sheldon Whitehouse
Environment
1. Sheldon Whitehouse
2. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
3. Jeff Merkley
Budget
1. Jeff Merkley – going to Environment
2. Patty Murray – not going to leave Appropriations
3. Ron Wyden – not going to leave Finance
4. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
5. Sheldon Whitehouse – not going to leave Judiciary
6. Mark Warner – not going to leave Intel
7. Tim Kaine
Agriculture
1. Amy Klobuchar – retiring
2. Michael Bennet – retiring
3. Tina Smith – retiring
4. Dick Durbin – retiring
5. Cory Booker
Foreign Relations
1. Jeanne Shaheen – retiring
2. Chris Coons
Ethics – need new appointees, this is the whole Dem membership
1. Chris Coons – going to Foreign Relations
2. Brian Schatz – not going to leave Indian Affairs
3. Jeanne Shaheen – retiring
Homeland Security
1. Gary Peters – retiring
2. Maggie Hassan
Economic (joint committee)
1. Maggie Hassan – going to Homeland Security
2. Amy Klobuchar – retiring
3. Martin Heinrich – not going to leave Energy
4. Mark Kelly
And for Repubs. Their Senate conference rules limit terms to three terms (six years) as chair and ranking member each.
Rules
1. Mitch McConnell – retiring
2. Ted Cruz – not going to leave Commerce
3. Shelley Moore Capito – not going to leave Environment
4. Roger Wicker – not going to leave Armed Services
5. Deb Fischer
Small Business
1. Joni Ernst – retiring
2. Jim Risch – not going to leave Foreign Relations
3. Rand Paul – not going to leave Homeland Security
4. Tim Scott – not going to leave Banking
5. Todd Young
Judiciary
1. Chuck Grassley – term limited
2. Lindsey Graham
Budget
1. Lindsey Graham – going to Judiciary
2. Chuck Grassley
Another reason for Dems to take Senate: judiciary chair Lyndsey Graham vs Sheldon Whitehouse.
Lots of openings for newer Dem leadership. Booker leading Ag seems odd. Maybe Padilla goes there and Booker to Economic. Slotkin on ethics? Whatever new faces in new places would be a good thing.
That's not how the Senate works. People don't bounce around and parachute in from other committees. Padilla isn't even on Ag, nor is Booker on the Joint Econ Committee (JEC) that also does very little and wouldn't want that anyway. Senate Ethics is kind of a crapshoot because it also does almost nothing and is extremely disempowered compared to House Ethics (which isn't like oozing with power but actually routinely investigates where the Senate doesn't).
Unless there is a serious health concern (like Dianne Feinstein), it ticks along by seniority.
Despite being the most densely populated state, much of New Jersey is covered in fertile farmland, particularly in the South, where agriculture is a main industry.
Tomatoes, blueberries and cranberries.
yes, absolutely correct
Also, some of the NYC reps took leadership roles on House Ag years ago because of how important food assistance programs are in their districts and, I assume, in parts of NJ as well.
Sure, but Booker is very much not from the farmland part of the state
Sheldon Whitehouse would be a terrific chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee! If you have not yet seen them, I encourage you to watch his series of in-Senate lectures detailing how dark money and Leonard Leo’s machinations have captured the US Supreme Court and many other courts in our land.
While I like him a lot, there's one issue where him being chair of the committee would concern me.
https://upriseri.com/end-of-open-internet-senator-whitehouse-censorship-bill-section-230/
While I disagree with Whitehouse on this one issue, I do understand how many people see Section 230 as problematic. Whether it remains in place or is repealed, there are major problems that must be dealt with. Either way, this is complex.
Ag also deals with food stamps and subsidies, both of which affect people in urban and suburban areas. New Jersey does have farming, though. Are you familiar with Jersey tomatoes?
Nope. Pretty sure all our tomatoes are grown close to home down here until winter, and then I guess they come from California, or some greenhouse.
Jersey tomatoes are pretty much distributed only in the region. Even here in New York, you usually get them in farmers' markets. They're quite good.
Since a recent morning digest stated that the reason was unclear: "AIPAC made a statement in @PunchbowlNews explaining their $1.76 million expenditure against Tom Malinowski in #NJ11"
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/2016730026926916044
Anecdotally I’m seeing an absolute torrent of anti-Malinowski TV ads in the NYC market, along with a smattering of pro-Gill and pro-Way ads
donated to malinowski last night, didn't have a preference until AiPAC gave me a reason to have one
Malinowski looks a lot like my late father—I think that's part of why I've always liked him.
Thankfully, being at college on the west coast means I'm not seeing AIPAC slop ads yet. It's still funny how Way has two local endorsements, and yet so much money is being flushed away.
I saw/heard it twice while I was doing laundry last week, since they had the TV on. I doubt Democratic primary voters will believe he doesn't care about Trump, only about attacking Democrats, which is what the ad claims.
Justice Democrats is backing Mai Vang, who is challenging Doris Matsui, for Ca-7:
https://x.com/justicedems/status/2016874414374011153
Man, they’re going big this year. We’ll see if it works out.
Matsui has been comfortably holding office in the 5/6/7th for over 20 years, her lowest vote share in the general being 66.75%. The list of legislative accomplishments leaves a lot to be desired especially for this kind of tenure, and that level of seat safety. Its been enough time and she deserves a healthy, robust primary.
Looking at a similar exercise for House committees. Harder to divine what will happen, since it's less based on seniority and need the steering recs and then full party caucus/conference votes to approve. So giving a wider range of who could run.
Only looking at retirements, rather than those who might be lose their primary or general. Separating those I think are extremely unlikely with em dashes, and my random thoughts in parentheses. For House Repubs, their rules are a hard three full terms TOTAL as ranking or chair, not separated like the Senate. So most of their changes are by term limits. Since more changes are happening on their side, doing House Repubs first.
Agriculture
1. Glenn Thompson – term limited
2. Frank Lucas – term limited
3. Austin Scott
4. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
5. Scott DesJarlais
Armed Services
1. Mike Rogers – term limited
2. Joe Wilson (old)
3. Mike Turner (not MAGA fav)
4. Rob Wittman (possibly redistricted out)
5. Austin Scott
6. Sam Graves
Budget
1. Jodey Arrington – retiring
2. Ralph Norman – retiring
3. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
4. Glenn Grothman
5. Lloyd Smucker
Judiciary
1. Jim Jordan – term limited
2. Darrell Issa (possibly redistricted out)
3. Andy Biggs – retiring
4. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
5. Tom Tiffany – retiring
6. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
7. Chip Roy – retiring
8. Scott Fitzgerald
9. Ben Cline (possibly redistricted out)
10. Lance Gooden
Oversight
1. Jim Comer – term limited
2. Jim Jordan
Transportation
1. Sam Graves – term limited
2. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
3. Daniel Webster (old)
4. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
5. Scott Perry (may lose general)
6. Brian Babin (old)
Veterans
1. Mike Bost – term limited
2. Amata Coleman Radewagen – Delegate (possible but Repubs won't, also old)
3. Jack Bergman (old)
4. Nancy Mace – retiring
5. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (may lose general)
6. Greg Murphy
And the retiring House Dem ranking members.
Agriculture
1. Angie Craig – retiring
2. David Scott – gonna lose primary
3. Jim Costa (old)
4. Jim McGovern – not going to leave Rules
5. Alma Adams (old)
6. Jahana Hayes
7. Shontel Brown
8. Sharice Davids
Small Business
1. Nydia Velázquez – retiring
2. Morgan McGarvey
3. Hillary Scholten
4. LaMonica McIver
NGL, Tom Massie as ranking member on House Judiciary would be a bit hilarious for how pissed Trumpers would frequently be at him
Moreover, Tom Massie has proved amazingly resistant to Trumpian pressure.
(Insert popcorn emoji.)
I think his luck is about to run out, but I'd actually love if he stuck around just to piss off all the right people.
Well, Massie did win the 2024 GOP Primary with around 76% of the votes. It's going to be hard for a challenger to cut down on Massie's margins, especially considering Senator Rand Paul is endorsing him in the primary (both happen to hold Libertarian views, especially on war).
Yeah, I do think it's fairly unlikely he gets it overall, but not impossible. Trump obvi hates him and wouldn't want him to make any investigations bipartisan by joining Dems. But depending on how badly they do in November that fully lameducks the admin, House reps //might// not follow as slavishly? But I also imagine Massie isn't especially well liked. Certainly not by leadership, which makes steering recommending him a bit hard to see, and then I don't really know if the conference likes him enough to overrule them if they don't. Not sure the last time a party member vote went against the steering rec since Dems put Pallone over Eshoo for Energy and Commerce back in like 2014.
Craig released her own internal poll that has her down 42-45 to Flanagan.
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2016895091432980751?s=46
I'm shocked that implying liberal Democrats are in a cult while racing to the center—just as the party's base is moving left—turns out to be a bad political strategy.
She also wasn’t included on Majority Democrats’ “The Bench,” and my guess is that her name was seen as having an equal and opposite effect to the figures headlining the initiative, like Talarico and McMorrow.
https://x.com/ElectTheBench/status/2011769714578768028?s=20
This race is Flanagan's to lose.
As a Flanagan fan (Flanafan?) I hope you're right, I wouldn't say I'm as confident as you though.
There is good reason to believe she'll win - she's been leading in polls since the start of the race, nearly a year ago
But she has about 25% as much money as Craig. That will be a problem when the ad wars heat up.
There's an unfathomable number of examples I could use where the person with the less money ends up winning.
just think of all that money the harris campaign raised...
Is that true when it comes down to high-profile races with two strong candidates where the fund-raising advantage is 4-1?
You would rather have more money than less
She has endorsements from the majority of the state legislatures while Craig keeps touting her out of state endorsements from Reps like McBride and Ryan. No disrespect to them but nobody give a shit about them in Minnesota. Her fundraising is decent in terms of Senate primary standards, it’s that Craig is a prodigious fundraiser.
Fanagan?
Politico on GOP’s deteriorating poll numbers on immigration.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/29/republicans-trump-immigration-midterms-00754270
Depending on how one separates border security from the broader immigration question, there might not be a single issue the admin is now net positive on nine months to go to the midterms
And the worst part of it is that Trump could have come into office and made no changes and he'd probably be neutral-to-positive on the economy now.
Oh 100%. Just golf and collect shitty fake trophies from world leaders and he’d probably be net positive generally!
Americans' favorite kind of republican is one that generates no news coverage except by making the occasional moderately intoned speech. With an OK or better economy, most republicans could come into office and do nothing and end up broadly popular. It would require real work to not fuck things up in the background, but they could successfully pursue conservative ideology under this direction so long as they weren't going particularly aggressive with it.
Kind of crazy that the only ones that got that memo are the northeastern republican governors. It's a relatively easy ticket to a good spot in the history books.
The Emerson poll and Trump’s stupid luring of Perry Johnson into the gubernatorial race make me feel a lot better about Michigan in general. I don’t see any realistic path for Rogers to beat McMorrow. I can imagine it with el-Sayed, or at least a very close race. Hopefully she gains a lot more momentum from this in fundraising and future polling.
For the Duggan problem in the gubernatorial race: is it best to try and get Benson to offer him the LG spot? Or just go nuclear on him? Perry Johnson nabbing Trump’s endorsement would make me feel like a spoiled race is less of a concern for Benson, but still one that should be taken seriously.
Duggan would view LG as an insult. Her only option is to go nuclear on him. Swanson would actually be a solid LG choice for Benson.
Where are you hearing that trump is behind Perry’s latest foray into politics? If true - that’s great and really screws over John James.
Apparently Trump does not want James to abandon his House seat. He's promised Johnson his endorsement in the gubernatorial primary if he reaches 20% in polling. Time for Dem groups to run ads saying that Perry Johnson is too MAGA for Michigan.
http://wlns.com/your-local-election-hq/trump-pressures-james-michigan-governor/
Don’t go nuclear on him and don’t offer him LG. Just wait for the inevitable “but if I vote Independent, someone I really DON’T want to win, could” realization by current Duggan voters who then shift to D or R and watch his support collapse to 5-10% at best by Election Day.
I don't think we can afford to ignore him, unfortunately. Will probably need to run ads that a vote for Duggan is a vote for Perry Johnson.
Maybe? But I mean Betsy Johnson was basically ignored in Oregon, her support collapsed from 20ish% down to single digits and almost every single independent candidate campaign for any race ever with both a Republican and Democrat also running has lost support from voters as election day gets closer. That’s only the latest race I can think of, there’s been plenty more. It’s what’s to be expected.
Whether this time is different, well, it could be! Maybe Duggan is a unicorn candidate, with a unique appeal. Maybe his campaign catches fire in Michigan. Maybe Duggan does need to be attacked, or tied to Perry Johnson, but if that is the case it would go against a lot of other races where what I said above actually happens.
There's a risk in targeting candidates: it makes voters consider them viable subconsciously.
Independent candidates routinely poll well early on and have their polling numbers steadily decline until election day, at which point they often underperform those late polls as well. This is a consistent pattern. It's not guaranteed but at least early on we can assume it's the most likely trajectory.
Attacking him should be kept as an option if he doesn't see that steady polling decline as summer ends and fall begins. Attack ads before then won't help us much, but could hurt.
The Argument finds Abolish ICE at +3 and more interesting findings.
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/2016912118344536157
Trump is personally underwater on Immigration but still slightly positive on Border Security, they remain the GOP's two strongest issues, but clearly public sentiment has turned, and is only growing more anti-ICE.
Word choice is going to be important here and the messaging will have to be district specific, if the Democrats truly want to extract and realize maximum gains on this issue. I don't think a wholesale "Abolish ICE" push is a good strategy heading into the midterms. I think "Reform" or "rebuild" or "clean up ICE" might be a better choice in a place like WA-3, where MGP holds an R+2 seat. AOC can hammer the word abolish in her district, for an obvious comparison. But in terms of taking the GOP down further on these issues, there is a ton of low-hanging fruit and messaging now available. Dems in very close districts can say, "we're not going to abolish ICE, but we are going to rebuild it, ground up. First thing, ICE will never again be allow to disarm and kill US citizens on the streets, full stop. ICE agents should be at LEAST as well trained as police, not less as they are currently. Some ICE officers wouldn't pass the entry process to get hired as mall security, and paramilitarizing these kinds of unqualified hires has resulted directly in the video you see every day."
True. James Talarico adopted an eliminate and rebuild/replace position in the first debate while Crockett wanted to "clean out house".
Both are reasonable permutations of effectively the same policy goal
I sense that border security as an issue may become a trap door because the more stories about abuses related to CBP/ICE facilities come out, the more likely border security will start to look more like Abu Ghraib than orderly removal.
Why just abolish and return immigration under the DOJ like if originally was
Democrat John Sullivan has dropped out of the crowded NY17 Democratic Primary:
https://bsky.app/profile/fbi-sullivan.bsky.social/post/3mdlbnqfiqs2b
I have a feeling he would have placed last in the primary anyway
He seems like a nice guy. I hope he has a chance to run for something down the road.