In a race between McMorrow and Rogers, 46% support McMorrow and 43% Rogers; 12% are undecided. In a matchup between Stevens and Rogers, 47% support Stevens and 42% Rogers; 11% are undecided. Between El-Sayed and Rogers, 43% support each candidate; 15% are undecided.
"The first Emerson College survey of the race to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters finds a close battle between the top three candidates, McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “McMorrow’s strength is among voters over 60 (37%), while El-Sayed’s is strongest among voters under 30, with 24%; Steven’s support is relatively consistent among age groups."
The rumors of her entering in Tuesday didn't make sense. The caucuses are that day, and she wants to have a few days to line up delegate candidates in advance of that.
I wonder if Lisa Demuth has any regrets whatsoever for causing this mess in MN. Her own daughter disowned her after the Good murder, her battled incumbent rival withdrew from the race and got replaced with Klobuchar.
She should be run out of the state and tarred and feathered, among other things. Because of her, TWO innocent U.S. citizens got murdered by ICE. I can't see this year's election putting her in the governor's office or the GOP winning one state House. Thanks to her, MN will likely regain a DFL trifecta.
This is due to City Journal, Christopher Rufo's "noticing" investigation with a fake account from a fictitious cop who said MN tax money was financing Al Shabaab and Nick Shirley's videos.
I'm really glad Iowa law requires the governor to announce a special election date within five days of a vacancy in the state legislature arising, and has some provisions to ensure vacancies don't remain unfilled throughout a state legislative session.
Governor Kim Reynolds has played some political games with special elections (most recently scheduling an Iowa Senate election in a blue district for December 30), but there would be no way for her to hold a seat open for many months.
With Klobuchar's formal announcement for governor (and almost certain general election success for her and Bennet), I wanted to look at the Senate committee musical chairs so far. I only go down seniority up to the next ranking/chair.
Judiciary
1. Dick Durbin – retiring
2. Sheldon Whitehouse
Environment
1. Sheldon Whitehouse
2. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
3. Jeff Merkley
Budget
1. Jeff Merkley – going to Environment
2. Patty Murray – not going to leave Appropriations
3. Ron Wyden – not going to leave Finance
4. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
5. Sheldon Whitehouse – not going to leave Judiciary
6. Mark Warner – not going to leave Intel
7. Tim Kaine
Agriculture
1. Amy Klobuchar – retiring
2. Michael Bennet – retiring
3. Tina Smith – retiring
4. Dick Durbin – retiring
5. Cory Booker
Foreign Relations
1. Jeanne Shaheen – retiring
2. Chris Coons
Ethics – need new appointees, this is the whole Dem membership
1. Chris Coons – going to Foreign Relations
2. Brian Schatz – not going to leave Indian Affairs
Another reason for Dems to take Senate: judiciary chair Lyndsey Graham vs Sheldon Whitehouse.
Lots of openings for newer Dem leadership. Booker leading Ag seems odd. Maybe Padilla goes there and Booker to Economic. Slotkin on ethics? Whatever new faces in new places would be a good thing.
That's not how the Senate works. People don't bounce around and parachute in from other committees. Padilla isn't even on Ag, nor is Booker on the Joint Econ Committee (JEC) that also does very little and wouldn't want that anyway. Senate Ethics is kind of a crapshoot because it also does almost nothing and is extremely disempowered compared to House Ethics (which isn't like oozing with power but actually routinely investigates where the Senate doesn't).
Unless there is a serious health concern (like Dianne Feinstein), it ticks along by seniority.
Despite being the most densely populated state, much of New Jersey is covered in fertile farmland, particularly in the South, where agriculture is a main industry.
Sheldon Whitehouse would be a terrific chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee! If you have not yet seen them, I encourage you to watch his series of in-Senate lectures detailing how dark money and Leonard Leo’s machinations have captured the US Supreme Court and many other courts in our land.
While I disagree with Whitehouse on this one issue, I do understand how many people see Section 230 as problematic. Whether it remains in place or is repealed, there are major problems that must be dealt with. Either way, this is complex.
Since a recent morning digest stated that the reason was unclear: "AIPAC made a statement in @PunchbowlNews explaining their $1.76 million expenditure against Tom Malinowski in #NJ11"
Looking at a similar exercise for House committees. Harder to divine what will happen, since it's less based on seniority and need the steering recs and then full party caucus/conference votes to approve. So giving a wider range of who could run.
Only looking at retirements, rather than those who might be lose their primary or general. Separating those I think are extremely unlikely with em dashes, and my random thoughts in parentheses. For House Repubs, their rules are a hard three full terms TOTAL as ranking or chair, not separated like the Senate. So most of their changes are by term limits. Since more changes are happening on their side, doing House Repubs first.
Agriculture
1. Glenn Thompson – term limited
2. Frank Lucas – term limited
3. Austin Scott
4. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
5. Scott DesJarlais
Armed Services
1. Mike Rogers – term limited
2. Joe Wilson (old)
3. Mike Turner (not MAGA fav)
4. Rob Wittman (possibly redistricted out)
5. Austin Scott
6. Sam Graves
Budget
1. Jodey Arrington – retiring
2. Ralph Norman – retiring
3. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
4. Glenn Grothman
5. Lloyd Smucker
Judiciary
1. Jim Jordan – term limited
2. Darrell Issa (possibly redistricted out)
3. Andy Biggs – retiring
4. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
5. Tom Tiffany – retiring
6. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
7. Chip Roy – retiring
8. Scott Fitzgerald
9. Ben Cline (possibly redistricted out)
10. Lance Gooden
Oversight
1. Jim Comer – term limited
2. Jim Jordan
Transportation
1. Sam Graves – term limited
2. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
3. Daniel Webster (old)
4. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
5. Scott Perry (may lose general)
6. Brian Babin (old)
Veterans
1. Mike Bost – term limited
2. Amata Coleman Radewagen – Delegate (possible but Repubs won't, also old)
Yeah, I do think it's fairly unlikely he gets it overall, but not impossible. Trump obvi hates him and wouldn't want him to make any investigations bipartisan by joining Dems. But depending on how badly they do in November that fully lameducks the admin, House reps //might// not follow as slavishly? But I also imagine Massie isn't especially well liked. Certainly not by leadership, which makes steering recommending him a bit hard to see, and then I don't really know if the conference likes him enough to overrule them if they don't. Not sure the last time a party member vote went against the steering rec since Dems put Pallone over Eshoo for Energy and Commerce back in like 2014.
I'm shocked that implying liberal Democrats are in a cult while racing to the center—just as the party's base is moving left—turns out to be a bad political strategy.
She also wasn’t included on Majority Democrats’ “The Bench,” and my guess is that her name was seen as having an equal and opposite effect to the figures headlining the initiative, like Talarico and McMorrow.
Depending on how one separates border security from the broader immigration question, there might not be a single issue the admin is now net positive on nine months to go to the midterms
The Emerson poll and Trump’s stupid luring of Perry Johnson into the gubernatorial race make me feel a lot better about Michigan in general. I don’t see any realistic path for Rogers to beat McMorrow. I can imagine it with el-Sayed, or at least a very close race. Hopefully she gains a lot more momentum from this in fundraising and future polling.
For the Duggan problem in the gubernatorial race: is it best to try and get Benson to offer him the LG spot? Or just go nuclear on him? Perry Johnson nabbing Trump’s endorsement would make me feel like a spoiled race is less of a concern for Benson, but still one that should be taken seriously.
Michigan Senate Emerson:
In a race between McMorrow and Rogers, 46% support McMorrow and 43% Rogers; 12% are undecided. In a matchup between Stevens and Rogers, 47% support Stevens and 42% Rogers; 11% are undecided. Between El-Sayed and Rogers, 43% support each candidate; 15% are undecided.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-crowded-democratic-senate-primary-remains-wide-open/
In the primary, McMorrow leads but nearly 4 in 10 are undecided.
It's the first primary poll to show a lead for her, pretty significant!
🙏
I would love to see her win the primary. She's the right candidate for the moment and for MI in particular.
Michigan Senate Democratic Primary
● Mallory McMorrow 22.4%
● Haley Stevens 16.5%
● Abdul El-Sayed 15.9%
Not sure: 38%
——
Fav-unfav (Dems)
McMorrow: 41-7 (+34)
El-Sayed: 38-7 (+31)
Stevens: 34-11 (+23)
——
@EmersonPolling
(A) | 1/24-25 | 491 LV
"The first Emerson College survey of the race to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters finds a close battle between the top three candidates, McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “McMorrow’s strength is among voters over 60 (37%), while El-Sayed’s is strongest among voters under 30, with 24%; Steven’s support is relatively consistent among age groups."
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2016836281091731457
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-crowded-democratic-senate-primary-remains-wide-open/
Another analysis by a McMorrow supporting pollster:
"Dems: 🟢 McMorrow +6
Indies: 🟢 McMorrow +8
White: 🟢 McMorrow +13
Black: 🟣 Stevens / 🟡 El-Sayed +9 (tie)
Age 18-29: 🟡 El-Sayed +10
Age 30-39: 🟣 Stevens +3
Age 40-49: 🟢 McMorrow +5
Age 50-59: 🟣 Stevens +4
Age 60+: 🟢 McMorrow +25
Men: 🟢 McMorrow +1
Women: 🟢 McMorrow +6
Long story short:
McMorrow's narrow lead is due to her large leads among seniors & those that say threats to democracy is the most important issue facing Michigan
And to a lesser extent her strength among white & more educated voters
But still a huge number of undecideds (38%)"
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/2016866210047004860
will never understand what people my age see in El-Sayed.
I guess we think he's progressive, which he is, but he isn't electable.
I think he'll win this cycle but has a high chance of losing in 6 years which is bad.
Based on these numbers, I'd guess that none of them are running ads yet.
All of them are, in fact.
WTF California ???!!!!! Get it together and coalesce!
primary isn't until June, I'm confident there will be some combination of withdrawals and people strategically moving their support.
It's way early, no one is thinking about the election, and only Steyer is running ads.
MN-Gov: It's official
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sen-amy-klobuchar-announces-run-minnesota-governor-amid/story?id=129660166
The rumors of her entering in Tuesday didn't make sense. The caucuses are that day, and she wants to have a few days to line up delegate candidates in advance of that.
I think people just misread "within a week" as "in a week"
https://x.com/amyklobuchar/status/2016843854054641696
Amy Klobuchar's launch video for Governor.
I wonder if Lisa Demuth has any regrets whatsoever for causing this mess in MN. Her own daughter disowned her after the Good murder, her battled incumbent rival withdrew from the race and got replaced with Klobuchar.
She should be run out of the state and tarred and feathered, among other things. Because of her, TWO innocent U.S. citizens got murdered by ICE. I can't see this year's election putting her in the governor's office or the GOP winning one state House. Thanks to her, MN will likely regain a DFL trifecta.
This is due to City Journal, Christopher Rufo's "noticing" investigation with a fake account from a fictitious cop who said MN tax money was financing Al Shabaab and Nick Shirley's videos.
Demuth used those lies to fan the flames. Her political future in MN (or anywhere other than a red state) is bleak.
I'm really glad Iowa law requires the governor to announce a special election date within five days of a vacancy in the state legislature arising, and has some provisions to ensure vacancies don't remain unfilled throughout a state legislative session.
Governor Kim Reynolds has played some political games with special elections (most recently scheduling an Iowa Senate election in a blue district for December 30), but there would be no way for her to hold a seat open for many months.
Who will all of these major labor unions gravitate towards if Chan doesn't make it to the general? Wiener or Chakrabarti?
With Klobuchar's formal announcement for governor (and almost certain general election success for her and Bennet), I wanted to look at the Senate committee musical chairs so far. I only go down seniority up to the next ranking/chair.
Judiciary
1. Dick Durbin – retiring
2. Sheldon Whitehouse
Environment
1. Sheldon Whitehouse
2. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
3. Jeff Merkley
Budget
1. Jeff Merkley – going to Environment
2. Patty Murray – not going to leave Appropriations
3. Ron Wyden – not going to leave Finance
4. Bernie Sanders – not going to leave Health
5. Sheldon Whitehouse – not going to leave Judiciary
6. Mark Warner – not going to leave Intel
7. Tim Kaine
Agriculture
1. Amy Klobuchar – retiring
2. Michael Bennet – retiring
3. Tina Smith – retiring
4. Dick Durbin – retiring
5. Cory Booker
Foreign Relations
1. Jeanne Shaheen – retiring
2. Chris Coons
Ethics – need new appointees, this is the whole Dem membership
1. Chris Coons – going to Foreign Relations
2. Brian Schatz – not going to leave Indian Affairs
3. Jeanne Shaheen – retiring
Homeland Security
1. Gary Peters – retiring
2. Maggie Hassan
Economic (joint committee)
1. Maggie Hassan – going to Homeland Security
2. Amy Klobuchar – retiring
3. Martin Heinrich – not going to leave Energy
4. Mark Kelly
And for Repubs. Their Senate conference rules limit terms to three terms (six years) as chair and ranking member each.
Rules
1. Mitch McConnell – retiring
2. Ted Cruz – not going to leave Commerce
3. Shelley Moore Capito – not going to leave Environment
4. Roger Wicker – not going to leave Armed Services
5. Deb Fischer
Small Business
1. Joni Ernst – retiring
2. Jim Risch – not going to leave Foreign Relations
3. Rand Paul – not going to leave Homeland Security
4. Tim Scott – not going to leave Banking
5. Todd Young
Judiciary
1. Chuck Grassley – term limited
2. Lindsey Graham
Budget
1. Lindsey Graham – going to Judiciary
2. Chuck Grassley
Another reason for Dems to take Senate: judiciary chair Lyndsey Graham vs Sheldon Whitehouse.
Lots of openings for newer Dem leadership. Booker leading Ag seems odd. Maybe Padilla goes there and Booker to Economic. Slotkin on ethics? Whatever new faces in new places would be a good thing.
That's not how the Senate works. People don't bounce around and parachute in from other committees. Padilla isn't even on Ag, nor is Booker on the Joint Econ Committee (JEC) that also does very little and wouldn't want that anyway. Senate Ethics is kind of a crapshoot because it also does almost nothing and is extremely disempowered compared to House Ethics (which isn't like oozing with power but actually routinely investigates where the Senate doesn't).
Unless there is a serious health concern (like Dianne Feinstein), it ticks along by seniority.
Despite being the most densely populated state, much of New Jersey is covered in fertile farmland, particularly in the South, where agriculture is a main industry.
Tomatoes, blueberries and cranberries.
yes, absolutely correct
Sheldon Whitehouse would be a terrific chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee! If you have not yet seen them, I encourage you to watch his series of in-Senate lectures detailing how dark money and Leonard Leo’s machinations have captured the US Supreme Court and many other courts in our land.
While I like him a lot, there's one issue where him being chair of the committee would concern me.
https://upriseri.com/end-of-open-internet-senator-whitehouse-censorship-bill-section-230/
While I disagree with Whitehouse on this one issue, I do understand how many people see Section 230 as problematic. Whether it remains in place or is repealed, there are major problems that must be dealt with. Either way, this is complex.
Since a recent morning digest stated that the reason was unclear: "AIPAC made a statement in @PunchbowlNews explaining their $1.76 million expenditure against Tom Malinowski in #NJ11"
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/2016730026926916044
Anecdotally I’m seeing an absolute torrent of anti-Malinowski TV ads in the NYC market, along with a smattering of pro-Gill and pro-Way ads
donated to malinowski last night, didn't have a preference until AiPAC gave me a reason to have one
Justice Democrats is backing Mai Vang, who is challenging Doris Matsui, for Ca-7:
https://x.com/justicedems/status/2016874414374011153
Man, they’re going big this year. We’ll see if it works out.
Looking at a similar exercise for House committees. Harder to divine what will happen, since it's less based on seniority and need the steering recs and then full party caucus/conference votes to approve. So giving a wider range of who could run.
Only looking at retirements, rather than those who might be lose their primary or general. Separating those I think are extremely unlikely with em dashes, and my random thoughts in parentheses. For House Repubs, their rules are a hard three full terms TOTAL as ranking or chair, not separated like the Senate. So most of their changes are by term limits. Since more changes are happening on their side, doing House Repubs first.
Agriculture
1. Glenn Thompson – term limited
2. Frank Lucas – term limited
3. Austin Scott
4. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
5. Scott DesJarlais
Armed Services
1. Mike Rogers – term limited
2. Joe Wilson (old)
3. Mike Turner (not MAGA fav)
4. Rob Wittman (possibly redistricted out)
5. Austin Scott
6. Sam Graves
Budget
1. Jodey Arrington – retiring
2. Ralph Norman – retiring
3. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
4. Glenn Grothman
5. Lloyd Smucker
Judiciary
1. Jim Jordan – term limited
2. Darrell Issa (possibly redistricted out)
3. Andy Biggs – retiring
4. Tom McClintock (possibly redistricted out)
5. Tom Tiffany – retiring
6. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
7. Chip Roy – retiring
8. Scott Fitzgerald
9. Ben Cline (possibly redistricted out)
10. Lance Gooden
Oversight
1. Jim Comer – term limited
2. Jim Jordan
Transportation
1. Sam Graves – term limited
2. Rick Crawford (may not leave Intel)
3. Daniel Webster (old)
4. Tom Massie (not MAGA fav)
5. Scott Perry (may lose general)
6. Brian Babin (old)
Veterans
1. Mike Bost – term limited
2. Amata Coleman Radewagen – Delegate (possible but Repubs won't, also old)
3. Jack Bergman (old)
4. Nancy Mace – retiring
5. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (may lose general)
6. Greg Murphy
And the retiring House Dem ranking members.
Agriculture
1. Angie Craig – retiring
2. David Scott – gonna lose primary
3. Jim Costa (old)
4. Jim McGovern – not going to leave Rules
5. Alma Adams (old)
6. Jahana Hayes
7. Shontel Brown
8. Sharice Davids
Small Business
1. Nydia Velázquez – retiring
2. Morgan McGarvey
3. Hillary Scholten
4. LaMonica McIver
NGL, Tom Massie as ranking member on House Judiciary would be a bit hilarious for how pissed Trumpers would frequently be at him
Moreover, Tom Massie has proved amazingly resistant to Trumpian pressure.
(Insert popcorn emoji.)
Yeah, I do think it's fairly unlikely he gets it overall, but not impossible. Trump obvi hates him and wouldn't want him to make any investigations bipartisan by joining Dems. But depending on how badly they do in November that fully lameducks the admin, House reps //might// not follow as slavishly? But I also imagine Massie isn't especially well liked. Certainly not by leadership, which makes steering recommending him a bit hard to see, and then I don't really know if the conference likes him enough to overrule them if they don't. Not sure the last time a party member vote went against the steering rec since Dems put Pallone over Eshoo for Energy and Commerce back in like 2014.
Craig released her own internal poll that has her down 42-45 to Flanagan.
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2016895091432980751?s=46
I'm shocked that implying liberal Democrats are in a cult while racing to the center—just as the party's base is moving left—turns out to be a bad political strategy.
She also wasn’t included on Majority Democrats’ “The Bench,” and my guess is that her name was seen as having an equal and opposite effect to the figures headlining the initiative, like Talarico and McMorrow.
https://x.com/ElectTheBench/status/2011769714578768028?s=20
This race is Flanagan's to lose.
As a Flanagan fan (Flanafan?) I hope you're right, I wouldn't say I'm as confident as you though.
There is good reason to believe she'll win - she's been leading in polls since the start of the race, nearly a year ago
But she has about 25% as much money as Craig. That will be a problem when the ad wars heat up.
There's an unfathomable number of examples I could use where the person with the less money ends up winning.
just think of all that money the harris campaign raised...
Politico on GOP’s deteriorating poll numbers on immigration.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/29/republicans-trump-immigration-midterms-00754270
Depending on how one separates border security from the broader immigration question, there might not be a single issue the admin is now net positive on nine months to go to the midterms
The Emerson poll and Trump’s stupid luring of Perry Johnson into the gubernatorial race make me feel a lot better about Michigan in general. I don’t see any realistic path for Rogers to beat McMorrow. I can imagine it with el-Sayed, or at least a very close race. Hopefully she gains a lot more momentum from this in fundraising and future polling.
For the Duggan problem in the gubernatorial race: is it best to try and get Benson to offer him the LG spot? Or just go nuclear on him? Perry Johnson nabbing Trump’s endorsement would make me feel like a spoiled race is less of a concern for Benson, but still one that should be taken seriously.
The Argument finds Abolish ICE at +3 and more interesting findings.
https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/2016912118344536157