Morning Digest: Why Republicans are sweating a special election they shouldn't have to worry about

The GOP drew Tennessee's 7th to be safely red. Suddenly, it isn't.

Aftyn Behn, the Democratic nominee for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District (Credit: Aftyn Behn Facebook)

Leading Off

TN-07

Voters in Middle Tennessee will decide a closely watched special election for the state’s 7th Congressional District on Tuesday—a race that has Republicans sweating despite their considerable natural advantages.

The GOP remains favored to win the contest, which pits Republican Matt Van Epps, a former state Cabinet official and military veteran, against Democrat Aftyn Behn, who’s served in the state House since 2023.

But despite the district’s strong conservative lean—it backed Donald Trump by a wide 60-38 margin just last year—all available evidence points to a battle that’s much tighter than it ought to be.

The lone recent poll of the race, conducted by Emerson College, found Van Epps ahead just 48-46 last week, but that result followed extensive reporting about GOP anxiety that was already widespread.

“It shouldn’t even be close. But it is,” Republican Rep. Tim Burchett, who serves eastern Tennessee’s 2nd District, told Fox News on Sunday.

The panic has been accompanied by heavy outside spending to rescue Van Epps, as well as a surge of Democratic funding in the hopes of fomenting an upset.

According to filings with the FEC, third-party groups, led by the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc., have poured in more than $3 million on behalf of Van Epps. Democrats, meanwhile, have spent almost $2.3 million to help Behn, with the lion’s share coming from the House Majority PAC.

Behn’s campaign has also benefited from greater donor enthusiasm, outraising her rival almost 2-to-1 since the start of October.

A key reason the election is so competitive is Trump’s unpopularity—something Republicans have recognized. According to Emerson, Trump’s approval rating in the district is underwater, with just 47% expressing support for the job he’s doing and 49% disapproving. GOP ads have consequently avoided referencing Trump, despite his dominant victory in the district in 2024.

The other major factor fueling Behn traces back to the GOP’s decision to gerrymander the city of Nashville following the 2020 census.

During that most recent round of redistricting, Republicans carefully rearranged the lines to flip the neighboring 5th District, which had long been in Democratic hands.

To seize the 5th, however, Republicans had to divvy up Nashville, a blue bastion that previously had been contained entirely within the district. They proceeded to crack it three ways, leaving a little less than half in the 5th while handing out roughly equal slices to the adjacent 6th and 7th districts.

Thanks to the ruby-red hue of surrounding rural areas, though, all three constituencies became solidly Republican, allowing GOP candidates to easily run the table when the new map was first used in 2022.

They included Mark Green, who first won the previous version of the 7th in 2018. While Green’s district became bluer thanks to the addition of western Nashville, he won both of his final two races by more than 20 points.

It was Green’s decision to give up his seat in July for an unexplained opportunity in the private sector that spurred Tuesday’s special election. (He later said he had formed a company with a still-vague mission to help American companies “win the battle against China.)

On paper, though, the district still looked unpromising for Democrats. Even though Democratic candidates have outperformed last year’s presidential margins by an average of 13 points in 59 legislative and special elections tracked by The Downballot this year, they’ve run at least 22 points ahead—the gap Behn must make up—just 11 times.

Democrats are therefore hoping to see lopsided turnout, with voters enraged—and energized—by Trump showing up in droves as disaffected Republicans remain home. While Nashville will be key, there are other areas to watch in the 14-county district.

These include Montgomery County, which is home to Clarksville, one of the few other sizable sources of Democratic votes in ordinary years. Also of note is Williamson County, affluent suburban turf just south of Nashville that, unlike many similar areas, has stayed firmly in the GOP column since Trump’s rise. Whether it remains there will have a major impact on Behn’s chances.

Whatever happens Tuesday, though, Republicans will likely have little to cheer for. In their best-case scenario, they’ll win an election they should never have had to worry about in the first place, while spending millions to do so.

Victories in similar special elections during Trump’s first term offered a momentary salve for the GOP, but they augured poorly for the 2018 midterms, which saw Republicans lose 40 seats and control of the House. Even if they don’t prevail on Tuesday, Democrats would gladly take an outcome like that next year.

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Election Night

Jersey City, NJ Mayor

Former Gov. Jim McGreevey already looked like the underdog against City Councilmember James Solomon even before another key ally proclaimed his neutrality in Tuesday’s all-Democratic contest to lead Jersey City.

“I have not been involved in the runoff election for Mayor of Jersey City,” Brian Stack, who serves as both a state senator and as mayor of Union City, said Sunday in a statement to Politico. “My only hope is that residents get the leadership and services that they deserve.”

Stack, who has long been one of the most influential Democratic leaders in New Jersey, offered up a far more enthusiastic declaration in 2023, when McGreevey was considering whether to revive his once-promising career.

“There would be no better mayor for Jersey City residents than Jim McGreevey,” Stack proclaimed two years ago. “I’ll be there day and night for him to make sure he gets elected if Governor McGreevey decides to run.” McGreevey, whose shock 2004 resignation as governor was a national news event, would himself say that the reason he decided to run for mayor was “spelled S-T-A-C-K.”

Morning Digest: Twenty years after shock resignation, an ex-governor wants back into politics

But while McGreevey spent the ensuing two years as the favorite to succeed Mayor Steve Fulop, who is leaving office following his unsuccessful campaign for governor, his standing took a hit on Nov. 4 when Solomon outpaced him 29-25 in the officially nonpartisan primary.

McGreevey got some more unwelcome news the following week when the New Jersey Globe reported that Hudson County Executive Craig Guy, who also chairs the local Democratic Party, had decided to remain neutral after supporting McGreevey in the first round.

Solomon, for his part, received endorsements from former opponents Bill O’Dea and Mussab Ali, who took third and fourth place with 21% and 18%, respectively. Sen. Andy Kim and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka also backed Solomon for the runoff.

Solomon further sought to cement his new frontrunner status in mid-November by publicizing an internal poll that showed him outpacing McGreavy 58-29. That survey remains the only poll anyone has released during the month-long runoff campaign.

Solomon, who at 41 is almost three decades younger than his 68-year-old opponent, has framed their showdown as “a choice between the future and the past of New Jersey at a very core basis.” Solomon told Politico, “We do need to put the old machine system behind us. I don’t believe it’s delivered for working people and the proof is in the pudding.”

McGreevey, though, argues his experience still makes him the best candidate to lead New Jersey’s second-largest city. The ex-governor said during the second round that he would serve just a single four-year term, adding, “I’m not running to build a political career, I’m running to fix the city I love.”

Redistricting Roundup

IN Redistricting

Indiana House Republicans have unveiled a new gerrymander intended to unseat the state’s two Democratic members of Congress, even as an increasing number of GOP senators say they’ll oppose the plan when the upper chamber convenes next week.

The proposed map would dismantle the Indianapolis-based 7th District—the lone solidly blue constituency in the state—and transform it into a seat Donald Trump would have carried by about 20 points last year, according to data from Dave’s Redistricting App and the Voting and Election Science Team. It would also convert the swingy 1st District in the northwestern corner of the state into turf Trump would have won by around 12 points.

It’s not clear, though, whether Republicans have the votes to advance this map, or any other. House Speaker Todd Huston has said that his caucus is on board with a redraw, but Senate President Rodric Bray has said his is not. However, the Senate’s plan to meet on Dec. 8 to consider redistricting represents a reversal following an earlier vote last month not to convene until January.

To pass new districts through the 50-member Senate, Republicans would need a simple majority. However, according to a tally from the Indianapolis Star, only 14 GOP senators have come out in support of a remap. Eleven, meanwhile, have expressed their opposition; the remainder have been either noncommittal or have yet to issue a public statement.

In recent weeks, at least eight Republican senators were victims of swatting attempts and other forms of violent harassment aimed largely at redistricting skeptics. A ninth, Mike Bohacek, said on Monday that he, too, had received a bomb threat after coming out against a new map late last week.

Senate

AL-Sen

Businessman Rodney Walker has attracted considerably less attention than his rivals in the GOP primary for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat, but he’s hoping to change that by going up on TV well ahead of the May 19 primary.

“I’m gonna bulldoze Antifa and the liberals right out of Trump’s way,” Walker says as he stands in front of a bulldozer. “Out of 535 members of Congress, how many people do you know that can drive a bulldozer and excavator?”

The National Journal, citing data from AdImpact, says that Walker is putting a modest five figures behind this introductory ad, though that number could increase. The candidate finished September with about $360,000 in the bank, with almost all of that self-funded.

Walker faces several opponents for the seat that GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville is giving up to run for governor. The Republican field includes Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson, Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore, and Morgan Murphy, a former White House aide who used to work for Tuberville.

Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 16.

Governors

MN-Gov

Attorney Chris Madel on Monday became the latest Republican to launch a campaign against Democratic Gov. Tim Walz.

Madel gained prominence in recent years by representing Ryan Londregan, a Minnesota state trooper who was charged with fatally shooting a Black motorist named Ricky Cobb in 2023. The high-profile criminal case ended last year when prosecutors dismissed the charges after concluding they couldn’t “prove that Mr. Londregan’s actions were not an authorized use of force by a peace officer.”

Madel kicked off his campaign by touting himself as a political outsider, but his intraparty critics argue he might be a bit too much of an outsider when it comes to helping Republicans.

The hardline group Action 4 Liberty took Madel to task for having donated to Democrats in addition to Republicans, writing, “Madel supported Biden and all kinds of insane Democrats, how could grassroots Republicans possibly take him seriously in a GOP primary?”

Madel responded by telling the Star Tribune he had “zero apologies” for his past contributions, noting that none other than Donald Trump had once had a history of giving to Democrats. The candidate, though, was otherwise reluctant to talk about the unpopular Trump, beyond noting that Walz was eager to link Trump to his eventual GOP opponent.

Madel joins an Aug. 11 primary field that includes state House Speaker Lisa Demuth; businessmen Patrick Knight and Kendall Qualls; state Rep. Kristin Robbins, and former state Sen. Scott Jensen, who was Walz’s 2022 opponent.

Jensen secured the GOP nomination well before the primary three years ago after all of his opponents, including Qualls, dropped out after he won the party endorsement at the spring biennial convention. Such a dramatic winnowing, though, is unlikely to happen this time around, as most Republicans aren’t pledging to, in local parlance, “abiding” by convention endorsements and ending their campaigns if someone else wins.

Despite benefiting from the GOP endorsement last time, Jensen nevertheless told the Star Tribune in October that he plans to keep running in the primary no matter what, adding that he believed his opponents should do the same thing. Madel took him up on his invitation and informed the paper that he’d keep running even if convention delegates reject him next spring.

Robbins, by contrast, hasn’t committed to sticking it out until the primary, but she’s left open the possibility that she’ll continue onward if the convention doesn’t go her way. She told the Star Tribune in October, “We’ll see. But I plan to stay in the race as long as I think I’m the best candidate to beat Tim Walz.”

Demuth was initially noncommittal as well when she launched her campaign last month, but she later told WCCO, “I will be seeking the endorsement and abiding by the endorsement of the Republican Party here in the state of Minnesota.” Qualls has also publicly promised to abide by the endorsement.

RI-Gov

Aaron Guckian, the executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association, on Monday became the first notable Republican to announce a campaign for governor.

Guckian previously worked as an aide for then-Gov. Don Carcieri, the state’s most recent GOP executive, before running for lieutenant governor in 2022 following a major overhaul in Ocean State politics. The previous year, Democrat Dan McKee had been elevated from lieutenant governor to the top job after Gov. Gina Raimondo resigned to join Joe Biden’s Cabinet, prompting McKee to pick Sabina Matos to replace him in the number-two office.

Guckian ultimately lost to Matos 51-43, though that was considerably better than fellow Republican Ashley Kalus’ 58-39 loss to McKee at the top of the ticket. (The governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately.) Guckian went on to become executive director of RIDA, a position he’s now stepping down from.

While Guckian is currently the only prominent Republican competing in the Sept. 8 primary, both Kalus and state Senate Minority Leader Jessica de la Cruz have expressed interest in running. McKee, for his part, badly trails in the polls in his own primary against former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, whom he narrowly defeated in 2022.

House

CA-11

Democratic Assemblymember Matt Haney appeared to rule out running for Congress almost three weeks ago, but Politico still identifies him as a prospective candidate to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

Haney reportedly contacted labor groups last month to discuss a potential campaign, but he responded to inquiries from Politico’s Dustin Gardiner with a statement saying he was “running for re-election to the state Assembly in 2026.” The lawmaker added that the promotion he would consider was a bid for the state Senate seat held by Democrat Scott Wiener, who is running for Pelosi’s 11th Congressional District.

Haney, however, doesn’t appear to have been so definitive in private about his plans. Gardiner and colleague Blake Jones wrote Monday that the assemblymember “is considering whether to jump in the race,” but that his backers believe he’ll need “strong union support to take the plunge.”

ME-02

Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis is “close to finalizing his decision” about whether to seek the Democratic nomination for Maine’s open 2nd District, an unnamed source told the Bangor Daily News on Wednesday.

Francis would join state Auditor Matt Dunlap and former congressional staffer Jordan Wood in the primary for the seat that Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is retiring from. Democrats are also continuing to watch whether former state Senate President Troy Jackson will end his campaign for governor to run for Congress, though Jackson still sounds unlikely to change his plans.

Former Gov. Paul LePage remains the favorite to flip a constituency that Donald Trump carried 54-44 last year, though he doesn’t have the GOP side to himself anymore. Army veteran James Clark, who has not previously held office, announced a campaign on Friday.

Clark told the BDN he’s a former Democrat who joined the GOP after his beliefs “shifted toward a more centrist and pragmatic outlook.” LePage, who at 77 is more than two decades older than the 53-year-old Clark, has rarely been described as “centrist and pragmatic.”

NC-01

Democratic Rep. Don Davis announced Monday that he would defend North Carolina’s 1st District, which Republican legislators just made considerably redder, rather than take on GOP Rep. Greg Murphy in the 3rd District.

Davis made his plans known the week after a federal court declined to block the new gerrymander that extended Donald Trump’s 2024 margin of victory in the 1st from 51-48 to 55-44. Davis, who won his second term 50-48 under the old lines, confirmed that he’d run again after the map’s passage, though he kept everyone guessing exactly where until this week.

“Many feel Washington, D.C., isn’t serving their needs, and the redistricting battle clearly proves it,” the congressman wrote on social media. “I’m running in NC-01 to ensure everyone, from the northeast to the coast, has a powerful voice in Congress.”

The March 3 GOP primary to face Davis includes Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig, Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse. Candidates need to win at least 30% of the vote to avoid a runoff on May 12.

Murphy, for his part, currently faces no serious Democratic opposition in the revamped 3rd District, a longtime GOP stronghold where Trump’s 2024 margin dropped from 60-39 to 56-43. Anyone who wants to face Murphy in what’s still a tough seat, though, has just under three weeks to decide ahead of the state’s Dec. 19 filing deadline.

TX-32, CA-48

In a move that would take district shopping to new heights, California Rep. Darrell Issa is reportedly looking at extending his imperiled congressional career by seeking reelection in another state entirely.

Punchbowl News reports that Issa is considering running in Texas’ 32nd District, a Democratic-held constituency that Republican map makers in the Lone Star State just redrew to be safely red.

Issa’s team responded to News Channel 3’s inquiry Monday evening by emailing back, “We don’t have any news to make tonight – but stay tuned. On the record!”

The U.S. Supreme Court, though, has yet to issue a final decision on whether Texas’ new gerrymander can go into effect for next year’s elections. The candidate filing deadline is currently set for Dec. 8.

Last month, Issa pledged to remain in Congress—and California—after Golden State voters approved a new map that transformed his safely red 48th District in the San Diego area into a seat that Kamala Harris would have narrowly carried.

“I’m not going anywhere. I’ll continue to represent the people of California—regardless of their party or where they live,” the congressman said. “I’m not quitting on California. And neither should anyone else.”

Poll Pile

• TX-Sen (R): Peak Insights (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (pro-John Cornyn): John Cornyn (inc): 35, Ken Paxton: 33, Wesley Hunt: 18. (Unreleased October poll: Paxton: 36, Cornyn: 34, Hunt: 19.)