Morning Digest: One of the best-known Democrats in Texas launches a bid for Senate

Joe Rogan loves this lawmaker and aspiring preacher. Will voters feel the same way?

Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) (credit: James Talarico Facebook)

Leading Off

TX-Sen

State Rep. James Talarico, who has become one of the most prominent Democrats in Texas, announced Tuesday morning that he was entering the primary for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn.

"The biggest divide in our country is not left versus right. It's top versus bottom," Talarico said as he launched his campaign. "Billionaires want us looking left and right at each other so that we're not looking up at them."

Talarico will compete against former Rep. Colin Allred, who was the Democratic nominee last year for the state's other Senate seat, as well as retired astronaut Terry Virts in the March 3 primary.

Cornyn has his own tough renomination battle that same day against Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has led in most polls. Candidates in both parties need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on May 26.

Morning Digest: Colin Allred is back for a second Senate bid

A new poll of the Democratic contest shows Allred outpacing Talarico 40-32, with 27% undecided. However, the memo from Public Policy Polling, which did not mention Virts, attributed much of Allred's advantage to his superior name recognition, arguing that Talarico can pull ahead once Democrats learn more about him.

Politico, which first shared the survey, writes that it's "unclear who commissioned the poll," though Talarico's team said it wasn't conducted on its behalf.

Talarico, who flipped a GOP-held seat north of Austin in 2018, has attracted attention far outside of Texas during his tenure.

The state representative, who has studied to become a Presbyterian pastor, was the subject of a lengthy Politico profile in 2023 titled, "He's Deeply Religious and a Democrat. He Might Be the Next Big Thing in Texas Politics." He's also gained a following on social media for his denunciations of Texas' GOP-led state government.

Talarico's profile grew further this summer as he considered running for Senate. The legislator attracted national notice after he took part in a two-and-a-half-hour sitdown on Joe Rogan's podcast; an impressed Rogan told him, "James Talarico, you need to run for president."

Talarico, who joined most of the Democratic caucus in leaving that state for weeks to deny Republicans the quorum they needed to pass a new congressional gerrymander, also became an informal spokesperson for his colleagues. Last month, he told the Texas Tribune last month that he'd conducted 25 interviews in the first 24 hours they'd spent away from home.

Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Texas since the late Lloyd Bentsen secured his fourth and final term in 1988, but they're hoping that GOP infighting will give them an opening—especially if the scandal-ridden Paxton is their opponent.

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Three huge retirements

Election Night

VA-11

Democrat James Walkinshaw and Republican Stewart Whitson face off on Tuesday in the special election to fill Virginia's 11th Congressional District, which became vacant in May when Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly died after a battle with esophageal cancer.

There's little question that Walkinshaw, a Fairfax County supervisor who previously served as Connolly's chief of staff, will prevail in this heavily Democratic constituency in Northern Virginia. Both parties, though, will be watching to see how well he does ahead of November's state elections, where Virginia's governorship and other offices will be on the ballot.

Calculations by The Downballot show that Kamala Harris carried the 11th District 66-31 last year, while Joe Biden scored a larger 70-29 victory in 2020.

Republicans currently hold the House 219-212, with the 11th among four vacant seats in the chamber. The next special election to fill a vacancy will take place on Sept. 23 in Arizona's 7th District, another reliably blue constituency, but the remaining two seats will be unoccupied for considerably longer.

While the first round of the special election for Texas' 18th District, which is also heavily Democratic, will happen on Nov. 4, the large field of contenders makes it likely that no one will take the majority of the vote needed to avoid a runoff. (All the candidates will compete on one ballot rather than in separate primaries.)

A second round wouldn't take place until Jan. 28 at the earliest, though GOP Gov. Greg Abbott could wait until as late as Feb. 19. No matter what date he picks, Abbott's schedule means it'll take almost a full year to fill the seat that Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner held when he died in early March.

The fourth and final vacant seat is Tennessee's 7th District, from which Republican Mark Green resigned in July to enter the private sector. Republicans are favored to keep this conservative seat in a Dec. 2 special, though Democrats are hoping to score an upset.

Morning Digest: Why Tennessee Democrats think they can pull a special election upset

Senate

IL-Sen

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton publicized an endorsement Monday from longtime Rep. Danny Davis, who represents the bluest congressional district in Illinois, ahead of the state's March 17 Democratic primary for Senate. Davis, who is not seeking reelection this cycle, picked Stratton over two of his House colleagues, Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi.

KY-Sen

While Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has steadfastly denied any interest in running for Kentucky's open U.S. Senate seat, a senior party official didn't quite rule out the possibility he could change his mind.

"As of today, the door for Andy Beshear for the U.S. Senate is closed. He's stated it on the record that he's fully committed to serving out the length of his term," Morgan Eaves, the executive director of the Kentucky Democrats, told NOTUS. Eaves, though, added, "Of course, he's always free to revisit that decision."

Kentucky's candidate filing deadline is Jan. 9.

NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown posts a 48-13 advantage over state Sen. Dan Innis a year ahead of the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, Saint Anselm College finds.

The school, which finished fielding its new poll before former Sen. John Sununu unexpectedly expressed interest in running, previously released numbers showing both Brown and Innis badly losing the general election to Rep. Chris Pappas, the likely Democratic nominee.

Saint Anselm also looks at the Democratic primary for Pappas' 1st Congressional District and has former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen ahead of her many opponents. Shaheen, the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, takes 23%, while Marine veteran Maura Sullivan is in second with 9%. Four other Democrats trail still further, but a hefty 59% are undecided.

None of the Republicans, though, have even broken into double digits in a contest where a gigantic 84% are uncommitted. The frontrunner, to the extent there is one, is businessman Chris Bright, who edges out state Rep. Brian Cole 8-5.

The school, finally, shows Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander beating Republican Lily Tang Williams 49-31 in a potential general election rematch for the 2nd District. Last year, Goodlander scored a 53-47 victory over Williams, who twice ran for Congress in Colorado as a Libertarian.

Governors

CO-Gov

State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer filed paperwork Monday to seek the Republican nomination for governor of Colorado and has a "special announcement" set for Tuesday evening.

A few other Republicans are already running to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Jared Polis in a former swing state that's become a blue bastion in recent years, but all have struggled to gain traction.

FL-Gov

Former Rep. Byron Donalds remains far ahead in next August's Republican primary for Florida's open governorship as his only notable opponent barely registers, a new poll from the Tyson Group shows.

Donalds enjoys a 40-2 advantage over former state House Speaker Paul Renner, who launched his campaign on Wednesday. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who is also considering running, also takes 2%.

Both the Tyson Group and the American Promise, which Florida Politics describes as a "public research nonprofit," are led by Republican pollster Ryan Tyson. Tyson, who used to work for term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, does not appear to have taken sides in the primary, though he called Donalds' wide lead this early in the race a "resounding accomplishment."

RI-Gov

Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes has a "major announcement" set for Tuesday afternoon, and just about everyone in Rhode Island politics anticipates she'll finally confirm she'll challenge Gov. Dan McKee in next September's Democratic primary.

Foulkes, who lost to McKee 33-30 in 2022, looked all but certain to seek a rematch even before several polls this year showed the incumbent with a weak approval rating.

The governor got some more unwelcome news Monday when the toy giant Hasbro said it would move its headquarters from Rhode Island, its home since its founding almost a century ago, to neighboring Massachusetts. The announcement came despite attempts by McKee and other officials to convince Hasbro to remain in the Ocean State.

TN-Gov

State Rep. Monty Fritts announced Friday that he would enter the Republican primary for governor of Tennessee, a contest where Sen. Marsha Blackburn is the undisputed frontrunner.

Fritts joins Rep. John Rose, who has badly trailed Blackburn in the few polls that have been released. Tennessee, unlike many other Southern states, does not require primary runoffs.

House

CA-32

Former congressional staffer Jake Rakov announced Friday that he was ending his campaign against longtime Rep. Brad Sherman, his former boss and a fellow California Democrat, in the 32nd District around Los Angeles.

Sherman still faces former Biden administration official Jake Levine and a few lesser-known Democrats. Rakov acknowledged that his continuing presence in the race could make it easier for the incumbent to win a 16th term.

"With so many Democrats now running in the 32nd District, the top-two primary math doesn't add up anymore," Rakov said in his statement. "If all of the announced Democrats continue in the race, Congressman Sherman will face a Republican in the general election again, ensuring that he'll remain in Congress in a safe Democratic district."

Sherman's constituency, which is based in the western San Fernando Valley, is indeed safely blue turf in its current form, and it would remain so even if voters approve Democrats' proposed congressional map in November.

IA-02

Former state Rep. Joe Mitchell announced Monday that he was joining the Republican primary for northeastern Iowa's 2nd District, which GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson is giving up to run for the Senate.

Mitchell attracted attention in 2018 when he was first elected to the state House at the age of 21, an accomplishment that Bleeding Heartland's Laura Belin says made him the youngest person to serve in the Iowa legislature in the 21st century.

His promising political career was derailed in 2022, though, after he lost renomination to a fellow incumbent who represented a greater portion of the redrawn district they both coveted. Mitchell, who is now 28, went on to found an organization dedicated to electing younger conservative candidates and briefly served in the Trump administration's Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Mitchell launched his new effort days after state Sen. Charlie McClintock became the first notable Republican to enter the race. Several others are also eyeing the race.

Cedar Rapids Mayor Tiffany O'Donnell didn't deny speculation that she's one of them over the weekend when she wrote on Facebook, "I'm grateful to those who have mentioned my name as a potential candidate for Congressional District 2."

The mayor, who is running for reelection on Nov. 4, added, "For me, my focus is on Cedar Rapids," and implored her followers to donate to her campaign. O'Donnell, though, did not rule out seeking higher office later this cycle.

IN-01

Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green just resigned from Gov. Mike Braun's cabinet and says through a spokesperson she's considering a second bid for Congress, prompting speculation that the Indiana GOP may indeed be on the verge of passing a new gerrymander, according to the Indianapolis Star.

In 2022, Green was a highly touted GOP recruit against Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in northwest Indiana's 1st District. But while she outraised Mrvan by almost $1 million, the incumbent hung on by a 53-47 margin. Last year, Mrvan secured a third term with a 53-45 win over a different Republican opponent, even though Democratic performance cratered at the top of the ticket.

It's not clear, however, whether Green expects a boost from map-makers. Hoosier Republicans have largely been cool to the idea of revisiting their map, despite a full-court press by Donald Trump.

MI-13, MI-SoS

Former state Sen. Adam Hollier "is expected" to end his primary campaign against Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar and switch over to the race for Michigan secretary of state instead, the Detroit News reports.

"I haven't yet made a final decision," Hollier told the paper, "but will have more to say in the coming weeks."

Such a move would leave state Rep. Donavan McKinney as the only prominent Democrat opposing Thanedar for renomination in the 13th District, a safely blue seat based in Detroit. If no one else gets in, Thanedar will now need to win a majority of the primary vote to earn another term.

Hollier would instead run to replace Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is termed out of office, as Michigan's chief elections administrator. Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum and Deputy Secretary of State Aghogho Edevbie are already seeking the Democratic nomination to succeed Benson, who is running in the primary for governor.

Both major parties choose their nominees for secretary of state, as well as for other offices like attorney general, through a convention rather than a traditional primary. That gathering will take place next summer, though the Democratic nominee might be known well before then.

The parties are allowed to hold an earlier conclave several months beforehand, known as an endorsement convention, to unofficially select nominees and give them a head start in the general election. The Detroit News anticipates that Democrats will exercise this option, at least in the race for secretary of state, and "will likely endorse a nominee early next year."

NE-02

Omaha Mayor John Ewing has endorsed Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades in the Democratic primary for Nebraska's swingy 2nd District.

The two are political allies. Earlier this year, Ewing became the first Democrat since 2009 to win an election for mayor. The consulting firm he relied on in that victory, Cerberus Strategies, is run by Rhoades and her husband, Ben Onkka.

NY-12

Jack Schlossberg, a 32-year-old writer and scion of the Kennedy family, says that he's looking at a bid for New York's newly open 12th District—though the seat's current occupant has already made it known that he's no fan.

Schlossberg, who is known as a prolific social media user, tweeted on Sunday morning:

Several days earlier, though, retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler offered a harsh assessment to CNN.

"Well, there's nothing particularly good or bad about a Kennedy holding my seat. But the Kennedy, unlike Schlossberg, should be something with a record of public service, a record of public accomplishment, and he doesn't have one," Nadler said. "And so I don't think he's going to be a candidate in the end, and he certainly is not going to be a major candidate."

As Nadler alluded, it's not clear how serious Schlossberg, the grandson of President John F. Kennedy and the son of Caroline Kennedy, is about a bid. His feed on X is filled with commentary similar to the post below, which is currently pinned to his profile.

TX-23

Rancher Susan Storey Rubio said Monday that she was ending her primary campaign against Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales because the GOP's new gerrymander moved her home out of the 23rd District.

Gonzales still faces a rematch against gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera, a far-right "gunfluencer" who almost denied him renomination last year, in this sprawling West Texas constituency.

The revamped 23rd District, which is home to over 80% of Gonzales' current constituents, would have favored Donald Trump 57-42, the same as his performance under the existing boundaries.

Attorneys General

FL-AG

Donald Trump's team is trying to recruit Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez to oppose state Attorney General James Uthmeier in next year's Republican primary, Florida Politics reports.

Such a move would set off the latest battle in the long-running proxy war between Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, who appointed Uthmeier to his post in January after the governor picked then-Attorney General Ashley Moody to fill Marco Rubio's Senate seat. Uthmeier is a former DeSantis chief of staff who managed the governor's disastrous 2024 presidential campaign against Trump.

Judges

OH Supreme Court

Ohio Republicans' plans to avert a competitive primary for the state Supreme Court fell apart last week after party leaders declined to endorse anyone to take on Justice Jennifer Brunner, the last Democrat who holds statewide office. Four Republicans are currently running in the May 5 primary to face Brunner.

Mayors & County Leaders

Miami, FL Mayor

Miami's mayoral elections will continue to take place in odd-numbered years after a final attempt to shift the calendar fell apart on Friday, which was the last day to place ballot measures before voters this year.

The Miami City Commission voted in June to immediately move municipal elections to even years, which would postpone this fall's race to replace termed-out Mayor Francis Suarez by one year. Multiple state courts, though, ruled that such a change could not take place without voter approval.

Suarez, who announced last week that the city was giving up its legal challenge, said that he would instead call a city commission meeting to place a referendum on the November ballot to change the calendar starting in 2032. That meeting ended after just 45 minutes due to a lack of a quorum after just two of the five city commissioners attended.

Editor’s Note: This piece incorrectly identified Jennifer-Ruth Green as "Jennifer Ruth-Green"