Morning Digest: The GOP's new gerrymander prompts a massive scramble in Texas

Squeezed by Republicans, some Democrats are eyeing difficult turf

Texas Rep. Julie Johnson (D), who’s considering running against a Republican incumbent after the GOP gerrymandered her district (credit: Julie Johnson campaign site)

Leading Off

TX Redistricting

Texas' Republican-dominated state Senate passed the GOP's new congressional gerrymander on Saturday morning, following the same move by the House earlier in the week. Gov. Greg Abbott said he would "swiftly" sign off on the new map, which aims to target five Democratic-held districts.

Even before the new boundaries took effect, though, a number of candidates already began making moves, which we've rounded up below. Texas' candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8.

Civil rights groups that were already challenging Texas' previous map immediately filed a new complaint alleging that the redrawn districts also violate the Voting Rights Act by diluting the voting power of Black and Latino voters. They further asked that the court hearing the matter block the new map from taking effect.

To help you follow along with the latest developments, we've also assembled links to several resources:

• An interactive version of the new Republican map on Dave's Redistricting App, as well as one of the prior map

• A table prepared by The Downballot showing how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district and vice-versa, plus a piece explaining how to read it

• The data files from the Texas Legislative Council that were used to create the resources above

We also previously examined the changes the map would make to the five Democratic seats Republicans are hoping to flip.

Texas Republicans pass new gerrymander targeting five House Democrats

TX-09

Republican state Rep. Briscoe Cain, who chairs the state's branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus in the Texas House, announced Friday that he would run for the transformed 9th District. Donald Trump would have carried this revamped constituency 59-40 last year.

Cain, who filed FEC paperwork the previous day, is the first notable Republican to announce a campaign for a constituency that geographically has almost nothing in common with the dark-blue 9th District that Democratic Rep. Al Green has represented since 2005. This incarnation of the 9th now takes in conservative communities near Houston like Baytown and Pasadena, as well as rural Liberty County to the east.

TX-18

Democratic Rep. Al Green, who turns 78 next week, has said he'll run for office again, though as noted just above, Texas' overhauled 9th District shares no more than a number with the constituency he currently serves.

Earlier this month, though, Green showed interest in running for the redrawn 18th District, which is now home to almost two-thirds of the congressman's constituents and remains a safely Democratic seat based in Houston.

Such a move would set off a confrontation between Green and a fellow Democratic incumbent—but he won't know which one until the end of the year.

That's because a whole host of Democrats are facing off in the Nov. 4 all-party special election in the 18th to replace Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died in March at the age of 70 following a cancer diagnosis.

A runoff, which could feature two contenders from the same party, would take place in January or February unless one candidate wins a majority in the first round, a tall order in a field this crowded. The few polls we've seen find a trio of Democrats in contention to advance to the second round: former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, state Rep. Jolanda Jones, and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee

While the special election for the 18th will take place under the map passed in 2021, the winner would have to quickly get ready for the March 3 Democratic primary under the new boundaries.

Whoever wins the old 18th will represent just over a quarter of the residents of the new district bearing that same number. That alone would put the winner at a significant geographical disadvantage against Green. All the major candidates running to replace Turner, though, are significantly younger than Green, which could make a meaningful difference at a time when older Democrats nationwide are facing widespread pressure to step aside.

TX-21, TX-35

Republican Rep. Chip Roy's decision to run for state attorney general means that there will be an open-seat race to succeed him in Texas' conservative 21st District, and it could entice some San Antonio-area Republicans who are also eyeing the redrawn 35th.

Both Bexar County GOP Vice Chair Kyle Sinclair and San Antonio City Council member Marc Whyte inform the Texas Tribune that they're considering running for either seat.

Some Republicans, though, seem focused solely on the 35th, which will be open because Democratic Rep. Greg Casar has indicated he plans to run in the safely blue 37th. The list includes Bexar County Commissioner Grant Moody, who's publicly expressed interest, while the Tribune reports that state Rep. John Lujan and funeral director Kristin Tips, who leads the Texas Funeral Service Commission, are also thinking about it.

One person who insists he won't be running for Congress anywhere, though, is former Department of Justice official Aaron Reitz. While Punchbowl News recently relayed talk that Reitz might drop out of the race for state attorney general and run to succeed Roy rather than compete against him, Reitz insisted Saturday that he won't be going anywhere.

The redrawn 21st District, which includes part of San Antonio and the Texas Hill Country—including Lyndon Johnson's hometown of Johnson City—would have backed Trump 60-38, which is almost identical to his showing in the existing version of this seat.

The revamped 35th, likewise, includes some of San Antonio as well as rural areas to the east and south. Trump would have carried this constituency 55-44, though it's possible that a Democrat with a local base could still make a strong play for it. (Casar is from Austin, which is no longer located in the 35th.)

TX-32

Pastor Ryan Binkley, who self-funded $11 million for a largely ignored 2024 presidential campaign, announced earlier this month that he would run for Texas' dramatically transformed 32nd District.

This constituency, which now stretches from Dallas east to the Arkansas and Louisiana state lines, would have backed Trump 58-40, and Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson says she's looking at running elsewhere (see our item just below). But Binkley, who leads a financial advisory firm, is likely to face more established intraparty opposition.

State Rep. Katrina Pierson, who worked as a Trump campaign spokesperson before winning a seat in the legislature last year, didn't rule anything out on Wednesday.

"I need to get through the session before even thinking about it," she told the Texas Tribune, referring to the current special session of the legislature called by Gov. Greg Abbot. The session must wrap up by mid-September, though Speaker Dustin Burrows says he hopes to finish before Labor Day.

TX-33, TX-24, TX-30

Three Democratic incumbents are eyeing the revamped 33rd, which remains a safely blue seat but one that's undergone a considerable geographic shift.

Rep. Marc Veasey, who hails from Fort Worth's Tarrant County, has represented the 33rd since it came into existence in 2013, but he's suggested he could run for statewide or local office. The changes made to his district are a likely reason: The prior version was split about equally between Tarrant and neighboring Dallas County, while the new iteration includes turf only in Dallas.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who currently represents the 30th, told CBS News Texas earlier this month that she might run for the 33rd after Republicans moved her home there, a boundary change she claimed was deliberately made to target her. Members of Congress do not need to live in the districts they represent (though most do), and Crockett's current seat remains safely blue.

That's not the case for Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson, whose 32nd District in Dallas County became all but unwinnable for her—or any other Democrat—under the new map.

Johnson informed WFAA that she would seek reelection somewhere, noting that she could seek the 33rd. Johnson, though, said she wouldn't run against Veasey.

Johnson, however, did not show any such deference toward Republican Rep. Beth Van Duyne, whose 24th District is based in the northern part of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Just as it did under the old map, the new 24th would have supported Trump 57-41—a margin only slightly less daunting than his showing in the transformed 32nd District. Johnson, however, argues that it's still winnable.

"24 is a much more competitive seat than the new 32 and it's more geographically compact," she said. "You know, a good portion of it is in Dallas County. My strength of support is here in Dallas County."

Van Duyne currently represents 87% of the new 24th, compared to just 3% for Johnson. The Democrat, though, noted to WFAA that she previously represented parts of the 24th when she served in the state House from 2019 until she joined Congress in January.

Crockett, for her part, said earlier this month that she wanted to talk with her House colleagues and constituents about what to do next.

"Does Marc Veasey fit better into 30 now because it does have some Tarrant, or not?" she mused to CBS. "And does Julie just kind of fit better running in 33 than me? Is my district going to be OK with me running and being on this fixed government income, and therefore not buying a home in the newly constructed 30?"

Crockett added, "Obviously, I don't have to live there under federal rules, but some people want someone who lives in the district. Obviously, I want to talk to my colleagues and see what kind of makes sense so that at least hopefully two of us have the best shot at going back."

TX-37

Democratic state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt hinted she might run for the Austin-based 37th District on Thursday night in a statement issued just hours after longtime Rep. Lloyd Doggett said he wouldn't seek reelection if the courts uphold the GOP's new gerrymander.

Eckhardt said that if legal action fails, "I will be ready to take further action to give voters a real choice rather than letting Republicans choose the outcome for them."

Rep. Greg Casar also plans to run for the 37th, so a primary with Eckhardt would set off a confrontation between two prominent Austin politicians. But Bayliss Wagner of the San Antonio Express-News notes that Eckhardt's statement left open the possibility that she could run elsewhere.

---

Support The Downballot’s unique brand of independent journalism and unlock access to subscriber-only content and features by upgrading to a paid subscription today!

---

Redistricting Roundup

AL Redistricting

A federal judge ruled on Friday that Alabama's state Senate map violates the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of Black voters, ordering lawmakers to create a new district where such voters can elect their preferred candidates.

In a 249-page opinion, Judge Anna Manasco, an appointee of Donald Trump, agreed with plaintiffs that Alabama's Republican-dominated legislature had improperly split up Black communities in the Montgomery area, though she disagreed that it had done the same thing around Huntsville.

Manasco's decision relied on the same provision of the VRA that Black voters successfully used to challenge the state's congressional map, resulting in the creation of a second majority-Black district last year. (Manasco is part of a three-judge panel in that case, which remains ongoing.)

Republicans have yet to say whether they'll appeal, according to the Alabama Reflector.

Senate

AK-Sen

Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan posts a 47-42 lead over former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a hypothetical Senate matchup, according to a new poll from Alaska Survey Research. The firm, which is run by longtime Democratic pollster Ivan Moore, did not include numbers testing Peltola in a potential race for governor or a comeback bid for the House in this release.

IL-Sen

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has released an internal poll giving him a 38-18 lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in next March's Democratic primary for Illinois' open Senate seat, with Rep. Robin Kelly at 12%. GBAO, which conducted the survey, previously showed Krishnamoorthi outpacing the lieutenant governor 32-19 in June.

Krishnamoorthi publicized this poll after a third-party group backing him highlighted its own survey that gave him an even wider 51-28 advantage against Stratton. We have not seen any other polls of this race.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov

Republican Sen. Jon Husted leads former Sen. Sherrod Brown 50-44 in a new poll from Emerson College, the first survey anyone has released since Brown delighted fellow Democrats by kicking off a comeback bid earlier this month.

Morning Digest: Sherrod Brown will reportedly seek a comeback

In the race for governor, meanwhile, the school finds businessman Vivek Ramaswamy with a larger advantage against two potential Democratic foes. Ramaswamy outpaces former state health director Amy Acton 49-39, while he has a slightly smaller 49-41 advantage over former Rep. Tim Ryan.

Acton, the only Democrat currently running, publicized an internal poll earlier this month showing her with a much smaller 47-46 deficit against Ramaswamy. Her release did not mention Ryan, who has said he'll decide by Sept. 30 whether he'll join Acton in the Democratic primary.

TX-Sen

Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49-47 in a hypothetical general election for Senate, according to an Allred internal poll from GBAO.

The accompanying memo does not mention Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who is trying to fend off Paxton in next year's primary, or any other current or potential candidates from either party.

Governors

AK-Gov

Attorney General Treg Taylor said Thursday that he would resign on Aug. 29, a move that the Alaska Beacon says comes ahead of his "expected" campaign for governor.

Taylor, whose post is appointed rather than elected, would enter a busy top-four primary to replace termed-out Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a fellow Republican. Dunleavy picked Taylor in 2021 after the last two state attorneys general stepped down amid separate scandals.

House

AL-01

State Rep. Rhett Marques announced Thursday that he would run for Alabama's open 1st District, and he already heads into next year's Republican primary with a powerful ally. Sen. Katie Britt quickly endorsed Marques and praised him as "a strong conservative fighter who has always had my back and President Trump's."

Marques is campaigning to succeed Rep. Barry Moore, who is leaving this safely red seat in southern Alabama behind to campaign for the state's other U.S. Senate seat. The field GOP already includes former Rep. Jerry Carl, whom Moore defeated last year in an incumbent vs. incumbent primary, and Army Special Forces veteran Joshua McKee.

This isn't the first time that Moore's political ambitions have given Marques the chance to rise higher in politics. Marques campaigned for the legislature in 2018 to replace Moore, who left to challenge Rep. Martha Roby for renomination. Marques succeeded that year even as Moore fell short, though Moore later won the 2020 race to succeed the retiring Roby.

CA-48

Navy reserve officer Ammar Campa-Najjar announced Friday that he would challenge Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in California's 48th District if voters approve a constitutional amendment this November that would make this reliably red seat in the San Diego area much more competitive.

In 2018, Campa-Najjar ran for a previous incarnation of this constituency, then numbered the 50th, against Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, who was under indictment for corruption. Hunter prevailed by a close 52-48 margin despite the conservative lean of his San Diego County district after waging a xenophobic campaign against Campa-Najjar, who is of Mexican and Palestinian descent.

Campa-Najjar soon sought a rematch against Hunter, but the congressman instead resigned in late 2019 after pleading guilty. Issa, who had retired from the neighboring 49th District the previous year to avoid getting sunk by the emerging Democratic wave, sought a comeback in the 50th and beat Campa-Najjar 54-46.

Campa-Najjar went on to run for mayor of Chula Vista in 2022, but he lost an officially nonpartisan race 52-48 to Republican John McCann. McCann won an upset victory in the Democratic-leaning city by arguing that his opponent didn't actually live in the community. Among other things, McCann released footage he said showed Campa-Najjar residing in San Diego with his girlfriend, Rep. Sara Jacobs.

Campa-Najjar begins his new campaign with an endorsement from Democratic Rep. Mike Levin, who flipped Issa's old 49th District in 2018 and still represents it.

But Campa-Najjar is not the only Democrat who wants to take on Issa in the proposed 48th, which would transform from a constituency that Donald Trump carried 56-41 into one Kamala Harris would have won by about 4 points.

Morning Digest: Responding to Texas, California Democrats release new map targeting GOP seats

Businessman Brandon Riker, who is currently challenging GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in the 41st, has said he'll instead take on Issa if the city of Palm Springs is redistricted into the 48th.

San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert is also "preparing" to oppose Issa, Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin reported Tuesday, adding that a kickoff is "imminent."

NY-19

State Sen. Peter Oberacker has decided to challenge Democratic Rep. Josh Riley in New York's competitive 19th District, City & State's Austin Jefferson reports.

Oberacker, who would be the first prominent Republican to oppose Riley, acknowledged to Jefferson that he was interested, though he said he was still "giving serious consideration to running."

The head of the Sullivan County GOP, however, emailed other local Republicans to inform them, "Peter has decided to throw his hat in the ring to run for the US Congressional 19th District !! Hopefully, we will all be behind him." No rival Republicans currently stand in Oberacker's way, though congressional staffer Haris Alic expressed interest in taking on Riley last month.

Calculations from The Downballot show that the 19th, which is based in the southeastern corner of upstate New York, favored Kamala Harris by a tight 50-49 spread. Last year, Riley unseated GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro 51-49 two years after falling just short in their first bout.

Attorneys General

TX-AG

Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed Rep. Chip Roy, who was his first chief of staff in the Senate, on Saturday for next year's Republican primary for Texas attorney general. Cruz took sides even though the GOP field includes Aaron Reitz, who also served as his chief of staff from 2023 until March.

Mayors & County Leaders

Harris County, TX Judge

Marty Lancton, who leads the Houston firefighters union, just became the first prominent Republican to enter the race for Harris County judge. Lancton, whose organization has long been a force in city politics, joins Piney Point Mayor Aliza Dutt, who serves a community of 3,000 people, in next March's GOP primary.

This influential office is held by Democrat Lina Hidalgo, who has yet to announce if she'll seek a third term as leader of America's third-largest county. (County judges in Texas are the equivalent of county executives elsewhere; they are not judicial positions.) The Houston Chronicle recently wrote that an announcement from Hidalgo "is expected in the coming weeks."

Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker and former Houston City Councilor Letitia Plummer previously announced that they would seek the Democratic nomination, whether or not Hidalgo runs again.

Kamala Harris carried the county 52-46, which represented a sizable shift to the right from Joe Biden's 56-43 performance four years earlier.

New Orleans, LA Mayor

A new poll shows New Orleans City Council member Helena Moreno still far ahead of her opponents while remaining a few points shy of the majority she would need to win the Oct. 11 mayor election outright.

Faucheux Strategies' survey for WWL-TV places Moreno at 47%, with state Sen. Royce Duplessis edging out City Councilman Oliver Thomas 18-16 for the second spot in a potential Nov. 15 runoff. (All three are Democrats.)

The poll, though, finds Moreno well-positioned to win a second round of voting should it come to that: She defeats Duplessis 58-27 in a one-on-one, while she posts a comparable 59-26 advantage over Thomas.

Correction: Our item on New York's 19th Congressional District incorrectly identified its representative as Pat Ryan. It is represented by Josh Riley. Ryan represents the neighboring 18th District.

We also misstated the timing of a possible runoff in the special election for Texas' 18th Congressional District. If one is necessary, it would take place in January or February, not in December.

In addition, we said that Texas Rep. Marc Veasey had not "shown any indication of wanting to give [] up" the 33rd Congressional District. Veasey had previously suggested he could run for statewide or local office.

Editor's note: In the previous Morning Digest, we incorrectly said that Democratic Rep. Al Green is 78. Green is 77. He turns 78 on Sept. 1.