Fascinating that it’s a Trump-appointed judge who declares Alabama’s redistricting map invalid. It must frustrate the hell out of the Mad King to have appointed such disloyal judges!
It is. And the three-judge panel Mansaco is part of in the congressional case includes another Trump appointee and a judge originally appointed by Reagan. It shows a real divide between the Federalist Society ultra-conservatives and the post-Federalist Society outright maniacs like James Ho.
And on a related note, it took a Trump appointed federal judge (Judge Myers) in the Riggs/Griffin case that got Griffin to finally concede. I'm still not sure whether SCOTUS would've affirmed Myers' ruling if Griffin appealed it though.
Californias district have a bigger dummymander potential than Texas. Trumps numbers are a low point for republicans in California so if he's only losing a couple of these districts by 4 points i'd say a republican can win that, maybe not next year but definitely going forward.
Except that current marginal districts are stronger D now, right? Seems like that's what I've read. So in a bad year the Rs pick up 4-5 seats on their 4 seat base, rather than on a 9 seat base.
Protecting existing seats is also important, because the points should be to gain seats in a neutral climate and lose as few as possible in a negative climate.
Trump 2024 is not a "low point" for California GOP. Biden won California 64-34. Kamala won it 58-38. Both states are betting on hispanic voters. If they revert to even 2020 levels of support for Dems, then the marignal California seats are off the board for the remainder of the decade and TX-28 and TX-34 probably stay Dem while TX-35 is a toss-up. If 2024 numbers hold or get worse, then Texas's gerrymander should hold and the California marginal seats will be competitive in 2028/30.
How good of a pollster is Emerson? Those Ohio numbers seem really favorable to the repubs. Are they modeling using a 2024 electorate? I remember one of the VA or NJ polls used that approach which seems rather silly to me.
I've seen other commenters here indicate that Emerson is not a great pollster. Can someone with polling experience/knowledge explain what makes Emerson (or any other pollster) not great? How do pollsters get their ratings? Is it their methods? If so, why don't "bad" pollsters update their methods? What's stopping Emerson from becoming a "good" pollster?
Not a good poll for Brown or Tim Ryan by any means, BUT, the one bright spot is I don't buy the approval rating there for Trump. They have Trump approval at 49%-42% approve. Not sure that fits with Trump's 41.9% - 53.7% approval rating nationally right now. Husted running 1 point behind Trump approval on margin right now.
"The precise moment when and where in recent weeks America crossed that invisible line from democracy into authoritarianism can and will be debated by future historians, but it’s clear that the line itself has been crossed.”
Is it clear? The author argues that "this is exactly how it happens — a blurring here, a norm destroyed there, a presidential diktat unchallenged."
I've mentioned before that the frog is gradually and rather quickly boiling in this country, but if the midterm elections end up being reasonably free and fair and Democrats continue to be able to do something meaningful, we won't have turned into a dictatorship yet. That said, Kilmer Abrego-Garcia was seized by ICE again today, and the fact that the Trump regime is able to perpetrate these kinds of criminal seizures of innocent people in violation of the constitution with the collaboration of Congress and the Supreme Court makes the remaining freedoms in this country increasingly hollow and merely tolerated by the criminal president to a degree for now.
I don’t think there’s a single line that is the yes/no point. Just gradual freedoms and privileges being ground down and revoked as people get more and more used to thuggish intimidation by their own government
Assuming elections are maintained more or less as they have been for recent years I think the question comes down to 2028 more than anything right now. The damage right now is immense, but it's the kind that most of it can be fixed with leadership that wants to take us away from authoritarianism.
If we go through another decade of this kind of governance, I worry that might be too much to be overcome.
I don't really know though, it's a scary time. Maybe I'm being unreasonably optimistic.
Merely governing in a non-authoritarian way would be grossly insufficient. There need to be purges of all the subversives, and where that's not possible, as on the Supreme Court, they need to be diluted into ineffectiveness. New laws need to be passed to safeguard everything, but without a court that sustains such laws, nothing will have been achieved.
I agree in a broad sense. I think if we had e.g. 20 years of unbroken non-authoritarian presidencies that we'd be OK. The problem is that this unlikely with today's GOP, so we do need to do the things you mention.
I do think the outcome of 2028 is the real tipping point for us.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former State Sen. President/current gubernatorial candidate Troy Jackson have both endorsed oyster farmer and veteran Graham Platner in the Dem primary, and will appear at a rally with him.
Apparently Detroit City Councilman and failed mayoral candidate Fred Durhal III has been "approached" (I suspect by AIPAC) to challenge Rep. Rashida Tlaib in the Democratic primary. Whatever you think of Tlaib, I think this challenge would be suicidal. Tlaib reportedly has stellar constituent services, and represents a district with a massive and politically active Arab population (including Arab-heavy Dearborn) and I don't think any primary would go well here, even if you don't like Tlaib. Just my thoughts though.
Rep. Val Hoyle has two left primary challengers -- Melissa Bird, a social worker and spouse of a fired public employee, and Boris Wiedenfeld-Needham, a 50501 spokesperson and small business owner.
New poll out for the GOP primary. Heather Moore, the wife of outgoing Rep. Barry Moore, leads here at 39% -- although she hasn't announced yet. Former Rep. Jerry Carl is in second place at 28%, and State Rep. Rhett Marques is in third place at 13%. 20% undecided.
One of the reasons for his sudden internet fame according to me is that just like hard right Republicans love candidates from an ethnic minority background like Vivek Ramaswamy or Byron Donalds agreeing with them wholeheartedly, progressives also love someone with this sort of a background agreeing with them. If he wins the primary and then the general, the progressive theory of economic populism over cultural and economic moderation (Collins is an arch right-centrist) would also be vindicated. Fetterman's win after his stroke was said to have proven this but we know how that turned out plus he rode on Shapiro's coattails who won by a landslide against extremist Mastriano and Oz himself was a poor candidate.
I have not said that the theory works but progressives cite the theory quote often. Bryce running for an R+10 seat was probably not a good idea. I don't care about Tlaib too but I am opposed to AIPAC and Crypto PACs.
It’s interesting that WI-1 isn’t a +10 seat anymore and Steil is in for the fight of his political career. He’s getting boo’ed in Walworth County and has twice weekly (growing) protests at his Janesville district office. People in southern Wisconsin are not happy with him and he can’t count on Diane Hendricks’ checks to bail him out in this political climate.
Elections are over a year a way, Peltola only has a small single digit deficit that's far from insurmountable and the incumbent Sullivan is well below 50% in what should be a solid Republican state. All these signs point towards a vulnerable incumbent, a competitive race, and a potentially winnable race at that. Things will likely only get worse for the party in power, Republicans, and Trump is deteriorating quite badly. No reason not to invest in this race, regardless if the candidate is Peltola or not.
Begich did beat Stevens in Alaska back in 2008. Stevens had a corruption conviction shortly before the election, which considering the margins was absolutely crucial. That said, this was also when Palin was on McCain's ticket; McCain 2008 did about 7-8 points better than Romney 2012 in Alaska, despite Obama doing about three points worse nationally in 2012 than 2008. Plus Stevens was a 40 year incumbent at that point.
Since then Alaska has shown more promise for us. I think the state is sufficiently less hostile to us today that we can have that kind of upset in a big wave without the aforementioned scandal on top. It will not be easy but, assuming Peltola runs, I'd put it about on par with Ohio's or Texas' senate elections next year. We are a clear underdog but the possibility is real.
Ted Stevens' case though was overturned just a few months when President Obama took office. The timing for him was just awful but Stevens himself was the Pork Barrell Legislating Giant.
However, he was also in his mid 80's and likely wouldn't have run for re-election after 2008 if he did manage to not lose.
Ted Stevens would have been 91 if he were running for re-election back in 2014.
However, it’s uncertain as to whether Stevens would have fit in a more Tea Party driven environment. Don Young did fine although I am not sure about Stevens.
It probably would have been the last Senate election for Stevens.
Then again, he died in a plane crash and otherwise didn’t have any real health scares that I can think of leading to the plane crash. Certainly, Stevens was consumed and stressed from the corruption trial but I don’t think anyone believed he was in bad shape health wise for being in his mid 80’s.
Upvote for mentioning the late Sen. Hagan (I'm still very sad about her passing) awesomely unseating the loathsome, ultra-phony Liddy Dole, but I think NC is a bit more complex than capable of being deemed "reliably R." At least I hope so. Sure, it frustrates the heck out of me, but there are signs of hope, like Cooper this coming cycle (fingers crossed), a looming and quite serious challenge to the absurd Ted Budd, and (beyond the Senate) Riggs' victory and Stein's massive success.
A few key trends are working in our favor. First, Alaska is not a deeply socially conservative state like those in the South. Its unique geography and history of settlement have made it more socially libertarian, with many voters favoring a mix of moderate economics, accessible healthcare, social liberalism, LGBTQ rights, pro-gun values, and pro-oil policies. Pols like Mary Peltola and Lisa Murkowski reflect this profile well. Trump's approval rating sits about 10 points underwater in the state, underscoring the shift.
Two decades ago, Republicans in Alaska largely aligned with this moderate-libertarian blend, but the national party’s sharp turn to the hard right has made the state more competitive. At the same time, demographic shifts are also at play: Alaska Native communities, which have higher birth rates, are growing, while many white residents are moving to the lower 48. Additionally, there's been an influx of Filipino fishermen and the suburbs have been shifting blue like in every other state in the union. Both groups tend to lean Democratic and would support candidates like Peltola.
It’s important to note, however, that the national Democratic Party doesn't perfectly align with this unique Alaskan profile—another reason why figures like Peltola resonate so strongly at the local level.
"Officials in a large North Texas county decided this week to cut more than 100 Election Day polling sites and reduce the number of early voting locations, amid growing concern about GOP efforts to limit voting access ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
The 3-2 vote on Tuesday by commissioners in Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth, came one day after President Donald Trump vowed to end the use of mail-in ballots."
Ernst leads Zach Wahls by only 43%-42%. Her leads over Nathan Sage, Jackie Norris and Josh Turek are by 3-4 points. Of note as well, Ernst never gets above 45%.
Back in 2020, a PPP poll from 11/1 - 11/2 showed Democratic Senate Candidate Theresa Greenfield polling at +1. Greenfield ended up losing to Joni Ernst 6.59% points.
That said, even while as Paleo pointed out that the article mentioned the PPP poll was requested by the Wahls Senate campaign, I wouldn't be surprised that more polls in the coming months show Ernst won't be polling great. Either it will be mixed or Ernst will be polling poorly.
Whether we face Ernst or Hinson, this seems most likely to me to be the sort of race where the polling often looks promising but ultimately isn't born out, and we lose by a decisive if not landslide margin.
Though that should be qualified by the potential for a wave or at least significant anti-Republican backlash, and we've seen some elections in Iowa this year that do indicate that Dems may in fact be getting things together.
I find it somewhat hard to believe that Ernst's favourability (not approval) is that low, especially compared to Trump. I doubt her foot in mouth episode regarding Medicaid really had that much impact.
And we'd probably need Trump's approval or favourability to be significantly lower--which could happen--to have a chance at a Senate seat, though those numbers might be good enough for Dems to win either or both of the bluer House districts (1 and 3.)
Sorry to link Fox, but they're the source of a PoliticalWire story, and the news is relevant, with quotes worth reading:
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore said Sunday he is considering redrawing the state’s congressional districts, a move that could reshape Maryland’s lone Republican-held seat.
Moore, a Democrat, told CBS's Face The Nation host that “all options are on the table” in response to Republican-led states advancing new maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Abigail Spanberger said she has “no plans” to redraw lines if elected.
Short answer is no,” Spanberger said. “Virginia by constitutional amendment has a new redistricting effort that was put in place and first utilized in the 2021 redistricting. I’ve been watching with interest what other states are doing, but I have no plans to redistrict Virginia.
Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears said, "I don't see the need for it. I think we're fine. But you know, we'll just cross that bridge when we come to it."
My comments: Earle-Sears' opinion is not very relevant in the sense that she seems unlikely to win the gubernatorial election, but it's interesting that she didn't say "no."
Spanberger said "no plans", which does not necessarily mean "no, not ever". But even if she and a Dem legislature decided to go ahead with it, the process for changing the commission based redistricting process is such that a new map is unlikely to be in effect before 2028, if then.
The same would be true for an Earle-Sears led GOP trifecta, which seems unlikely to exist during the next several years in any event.
The soonest VA could redistrict given the process for constitutional amendments is 2029 assuming it passes. Would it even be worth it to do a redraw for essentially one election in 2030?
You guys make me laugh - did the Ohio gqp legislature worry about their pesky little state constitution when ignoring the Ohio Supreme Court? Fire with fire means fuck all these rules and guidelines and use your power to do what needs to be done.
If you’re going to fight then you don’t fight with one hand tied behind your back. The time for norms and rules is after we win the fight. If the Ohio legislature can ignore their Supreme Court and state constitution then why should we care about those same things in blue states? Fire with fire means just that.
I should have used a term other than laugh but my point is either we match them move for move or we’re cooked.
You can't fight fascism by ignoring legitimate constitutional provisions and legitimate enforcement of those. We're not talking about a Nazi constitution or Soviet court rulings right now. I can see reasons for refusing to accept unconstitutional rulings by the corrupt Supreme Court, but that's not what you're advocating.
Right now, priority #1 is making sure Spanberger is elected as VA Governor but if she and Earle-Sears aren't making it an issue in the campaign, then I'm not going to get worked up about it too much just yet until after Spanberger gets elected.
Redistricting in Maryland is fine as it's a blue state. If Andy Harris can get the boot out from this, great.
As far as VA, when was the last time there was redistricting? I forget when exactly but didn't it happen years ago?
My take on Spanberger's answer is that by the time she would be inaugurated, she (and the rest of the nation) would be able to see whether Newsom and the Cali Dem Party were able to successfully circumnavigate their state constitution, so she's choosing to remain publicly mum on the issue until then
It seems the NYT is churning out a 'Dems are dooomed' article every week now. Last week it was gloomy registration #'s and now its census projections that are six years out. It's especially frustrating since election junkies know its way more complex than their reporting.
Trump won PA when Dems had a 500K voter edge back in 2016 and Biden won it in 2020 when the edge was even smaller while Harris did better in NC than Hillary even as Dems registration edge has dwindled since 2016. We've known scores of voters have been voting contrary to their party registration for years now and change their registration eventually but the NYT spins it as apocalyptic. Every census projections ahead of 2020 indicated Rhode Island & Minnesota would lose seats while IL & NY would lose even more, it didn't happen.
Eh, NYT needs hits. That's more the less the state of the newspaper industry. Even the Wall Street Journal is pushing out more job seeker challenge articles these days and it's known for being the one place where you always get your ins and outs with stock market and general business information.
I can read business articles through the SF Business Times (which I am a subscriber of) and get no nonsense this way. Of course, Biz Journals, which owns SF Business Times and other local news publications in multiple cities, has long relied on a subscription-based model well before NY Times and others.
Also, I think this is a part of their series of Bill Clinton 2.0 Dreamin' articles where they also lament that they can't crush the left which is more powerful nowadays anymore. The logic being that the worse state the Democratic party is in, the easier it is to take over just like 1992.
Ahhh yes, more of the same reporting based on narrative garbage.
I just love real, objective and non-biased reporting. I don’t believe in principle The NY Times, Washington Post, etc. should have to sell out in order to be relevant but they do.
Another left primary challenger, this time against incumbent Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen. Montez Soliz is the challenger -- he's a former Lauren Underwood staffer. He's running on a progressive platform, including support for Medicare for All and a $20 minimum wage.
Democratic State Assemb. and DCCC recruit for CA-22 Jasmeet Bains opposes the redistricting effort apparently? I consider this ridiculous, particularly for a DCCC recruit. Shameful.
If you run in a swing districts in CA opposing the redistricting effort is good politics. Bains will gain votes for that in CA-22 and it won't matter statewide.
Perhaps. I just worry that such actions could ultimately cost us referendum votes -- and could lead to some Republicans claiming Democratic support for a No vote.
May want to check your entry for NY-19. You've referred to Rep. Pat Ryan several times when it should be Rep. Josh Riley.
Thank you for the catch! Fixed.
Fascinating that it’s a Trump-appointed judge who declares Alabama’s redistricting map invalid. It must frustrate the hell out of the Mad King to have appointed such disloyal judges!
It is. And the three-judge panel Mansaco is part of in the congressional case includes another Trump appointee and a judge originally appointed by Reagan. It shows a real divide between the Federalist Society ultra-conservatives and the post-Federalist Society outright maniacs like James Ho.
And on a related note, it took a Trump appointed federal judge (Judge Myers) in the Riggs/Griffin case that got Griffin to finally concede. I'm still not sure whether SCOTUS would've affirmed Myers' ruling if Griffin appealed it though.
Californias district have a bigger dummymander potential than Texas. Trumps numbers are a low point for republicans in California so if he's only losing a couple of these districts by 4 points i'd say a republican can win that, maybe not next year but definitely going forward.
Except that current marginal districts are stronger D now, right? Seems like that's what I've read. So in a bad year the Rs pick up 4-5 seats on their 4 seat base, rather than on a 9 seat base.
Ok, i'm sure the incumbents loved that and probably the price to get them on board, but the point was to gain seats.
Protecting existing seats is also important, because the points should be to gain seats in a neutral climate and lose as few as possible in a negative climate.
Trump lost CA by 30 points in 2016 and 2020 but only by 20 points last year. So if anything, 2024 was a high-water mark for him.
Trump 2024 is not a "low point" for California GOP. Biden won California 64-34. Kamala won it 58-38. Both states are betting on hispanic voters. If they revert to even 2020 levels of support for Dems, then the marignal California seats are off the board for the remainder of the decade and TX-28 and TX-34 probably stay Dem while TX-35 is a toss-up. If 2024 numbers hold or get worse, then Texas's gerrymander should hold and the California marginal seats will be competitive in 2028/30.
Republicans joining the Alaska governor's race like Democrats joining the IL-09 race.
That's funny!
How good of a pollster is Emerson? Those Ohio numbers seem really favorable to the repubs. Are they modeling using a 2024 electorate? I remember one of the VA or NJ polls used that approach which seems rather silly to me.
Emerson isn’t a great pollster, but OH polls have seemed to have been too favorable to Dems since 2014 (thought not quite as bad as FL).
I've seen other commenters here indicate that Emerson is not a great pollster. Can someone with polling experience/knowledge explain what makes Emerson (or any other pollster) not great? How do pollsters get their ratings? Is it their methods? If so, why don't "bad" pollsters update their methods? What's stopping Emerson from becoming a "good" pollster?
Not a good poll for Brown or Tim Ryan by any means, BUT, the one bright spot is I don't buy the approval rating there for Trump. They have Trump approval at 49%-42% approve. Not sure that fits with Trump's 41.9% - 53.7% approval rating nationally right now. Husted running 1 point behind Trump approval on margin right now.
Part of why I suspect they’re using a 2024 model electorate
I think this will be a topic for some lively discussion: https://politicalwire.com/2025/08/25/america-tips-into-fascism/
"The precise moment when and where in recent weeks America crossed that invisible line from democracy into authoritarianism can and will be debated by future historians, but it’s clear that the line itself has been crossed.”
Is it clear? The author argues that "this is exactly how it happens — a blurring here, a norm destroyed there, a presidential diktat unchallenged."
I've mentioned before that the frog is gradually and rather quickly boiling in this country, but if the midterm elections end up being reasonably free and fair and Democrats continue to be able to do something meaningful, we won't have turned into a dictatorship yet. That said, Kilmer Abrego-Garcia was seized by ICE again today, and the fact that the Trump regime is able to perpetrate these kinds of criminal seizures of innocent people in violation of the constitution with the collaboration of Congress and the Supreme Court makes the remaining freedoms in this country increasingly hollow and merely tolerated by the criminal president to a degree for now.
I don’t think there’s a single line that is the yes/no point. Just gradual freedoms and privileges being ground down and revoked as people get more and more used to thuggish intimidation by their own government
Note that this also makes authoritarian Orbanism a la what Trump is doing much harder to combat
The day James Comey released his letter. Bipartisans should never be appointed to important positions.
Assuming elections are maintained more or less as they have been for recent years I think the question comes down to 2028 more than anything right now. The damage right now is immense, but it's the kind that most of it can be fixed with leadership that wants to take us away from authoritarianism.
If we go through another decade of this kind of governance, I worry that might be too much to be overcome.
I don't really know though, it's a scary time. Maybe I'm being unreasonably optimistic.
Merely governing in a non-authoritarian way would be grossly insufficient. There need to be purges of all the subversives, and where that's not possible, as on the Supreme Court, they need to be diluted into ineffectiveness. New laws need to be passed to safeguard everything, but without a court that sustains such laws, nothing will have been achieved.
I agree in a broad sense. I think if we had e.g. 20 years of unbroken non-authoritarian presidencies that we'd be OK. The problem is that this unlikely with today's GOP, so we do need to do the things you mention.
I do think the outcome of 2028 is the real tipping point for us.
I think 2026 and 2028 will be a make-or-break moments for democracy.
Bunch of news.
TX-9:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/houston/article/alexandra-mealer-al-green-congress-21014489.php
2022 GOP nominee for Harris County Judge Alex Mealer is running for Congress in the gerrymandered seat Al Green currently occupies.
CT-1:
https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/H6CT01222/1912973
State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest filed to challenge John Larson in the Dem primary here.
ME-Sen:
https://www.bangordailynews.com/2025/08/25/politics/elections/portland-maine-bernie-sanders-fight-oligarchy-tour-troy-jackson-graham-platner-labor-day-rally/
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former State Sen. President/current gubernatorial candidate Troy Jackson have both endorsed oyster farmer and veteran Graham Platner in the Dem primary, and will appear at a rally with him.
IL-8:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DNvShJGXKXu/
The College Democrats of America are backing Hanover Park trustee Yasmeen Bankole. They previously also endorsed State Sen. Robert Peters in IL-2.
MI-12:
https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/33495/detroit_councilman_fred_durhal_iii_says_he_s_been_approached_to_run_for_rashida_tlaib_s_congressional_seat
Apparently Detroit City Councilman and failed mayoral candidate Fred Durhal III has been "approached" (I suspect by AIPAC) to challenge Rep. Rashida Tlaib in the Democratic primary. Whatever you think of Tlaib, I think this challenge would be suicidal. Tlaib reportedly has stellar constituent services, and represents a district with a massive and politically active Arab population (including Arab-heavy Dearborn) and I don't think any primary would go well here, even if you don't like Tlaib. Just my thoughts though.
TX-37:
https://www.statesman.com/news/politics/state/article/greg-casar-election-launch-21014132.php
Update: looks like State Sen. Sarah Eckhardt isn't running here after all -- she endorsed Casar.
OR-4:
https://www.klcc.org/politics-government/2025-08-25/4th-district-incumbent-democrat-val-hoyle-faces-new-primary-challenger-from-corvallis
https://www.klcc.org/politics-government/2025-07-24/eugene-business-owner-announces-plan-to-primary-rep-val-hoyle
Rep. Val Hoyle has two left primary challengers -- Melissa Bird, a social worker and spouse of a fired public employee, and Boris Wiedenfeld-Needham, a 50501 spokesperson and small business owner.
AL-1:
https://alpolitics.com/just-for-fun-heather-moore-leads-in-early-polling-for-alabamas-first-district/
New poll out for the GOP primary. Heather Moore, the wife of outgoing Rep. Barry Moore, leads here at 39% -- although she hasn't announced yet. Former Rep. Jerry Carl is in second place at 28%, and State Rep. Rhett Marques is in third place at 13%. 20% undecided.
Platner is getting a remarkable amount of firepower early
One of the reasons for his sudden internet fame according to me is that just like hard right Republicans love candidates from an ethnic minority background like Vivek Ramaswamy or Byron Donalds agreeing with them wholeheartedly, progressives also love someone with this sort of a background agreeing with them. If he wins the primary and then the general, the progressive theory of economic populism over cultural and economic moderation (Collins is an arch right-centrist) would also be vindicated. Fetterman's win after his stroke was said to have proven this but we know how that turned out plus he rode on Shapiro's coattails who won by a landslide against extremist Mastriano and Oz himself was a poor candidate.
It doesn't always work though. Remember Randy "Iron Stache" Bryce? (now back for another run which probably won't turn out any better than his first.)
About Tlaib, I don't care for her, but primarying her is a waste of time and resources for reasons explained above.
I have not said that the theory works but progressives cite the theory quote often. Bryce running for an R+10 seat was probably not a good idea. I don't care about Tlaib too but I am opposed to AIPAC and Crypto PACs.
It’s interesting that WI-1 isn’t a +10 seat anymore and Steil is in for the fight of his political career. He’s getting boo’ed in Walworth County and has twice weekly (growing) protests at his Janesville district office. People in southern Wisconsin are not happy with him and he can’t count on Diane Hendricks’ checks to bail him out in this political climate.
I doubt Iron Stache makes it out of the primary
Primarying Tlaib in 2026 is political suicide. But sure go ahead since redistributing money is helpful to the local economy.
Actually your figures for the Mary Peltola- Dan Sullivan poll are a bit off.
The numbers are:
Peltola – 42.5 (685)
Sullivan – 46.7 (753)
Undecided – 10.9 (175)
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/26071481-ak-sen-alaska-survey-research-d/?mode=document&q=peltola#document/p10
These are good numbers in my view.
Elections are over a year a way, Peltola only has a small single digit deficit that's far from insurmountable and the incumbent Sullivan is well below 50% in what should be a solid Republican state. All these signs point towards a vulnerable incumbent, a competitive race, and a potentially winnable race at that. Things will likely only get worse for the party in power, Republicans, and Trump is deteriorating quite badly. No reason not to invest in this race, regardless if the candidate is Peltola or not.
Peltola's percentage is 42.47%, which rounds down to 42%.
Yeah, it's a reasonable start, especially considering 10.9% undecided voters could go either way.
Sullivan won't be able to turn out tribe members like Peltola will, especially considering she herself is one of them.
Does Peltola actually have a chance for Alaska senate? When was the last time an incumbent republican senator lost in a reliably republican state?
Begich did beat Stevens in Alaska back in 2008. Stevens had a corruption conviction shortly before the election, which considering the margins was absolutely crucial. That said, this was also when Palin was on McCain's ticket; McCain 2008 did about 7-8 points better than Romney 2012 in Alaska, despite Obama doing about three points worse nationally in 2012 than 2008. Plus Stevens was a 40 year incumbent at that point.
Since then Alaska has shown more promise for us. I think the state is sufficiently less hostile to us today that we can have that kind of upset in a big wave without the aforementioned scandal on top. It will not be easy but, assuming Peltola runs, I'd put it about on par with Ohio's or Texas' senate elections next year. We are a clear underdog but the possibility is real.
Ted Stevens' case though was overturned just a few months when President Obama took office. The timing for him was just awful but Stevens himself was the Pork Barrell Legislating Giant.
However, he was also in his mid 80's and likely wouldn't have run for re-election after 2008 if he did manage to not lose.
https://web.archive.org/web/20100123234422/http://www.adn.com/news/politics/fbi/stevens/story/743906.html
He was supposedly considering a rematch with Begich in 2014, if he hadn't died in that plane crash.
Ted Stevens would have been 91 if he were running for re-election back in 2014.
However, it’s uncertain as to whether Stevens would have fit in a more Tea Party driven environment. Don Young did fine although I am not sure about Stevens.
Yeah I have no idea how well he would have done but he was publicly considering it!
It probably would have been the last Senate election for Stevens.
Then again, he died in a plane crash and otherwise didn’t have any real health scares that I can think of leading to the plane crash. Certainly, Stevens was consumed and stressed from the corruption trial but I don’t think anyone believed he was in bad shape health wise for being in his mid 80’s.
Kay Hagan beating Liddy Dole in 2008? NC is reliably R, even though John Edwards also defeated a R incumbent in 98.
Good examples, but NC so far has been less red-tinted than Alaska, don't you think?
Upvote for mentioning the late Sen. Hagan (I'm still very sad about her passing) awesomely unseating the loathsome, ultra-phony Liddy Dole, but I think NC is a bit more complex than capable of being deemed "reliably R." At least I hope so. Sure, it frustrates the heck out of me, but there are signs of hope, like Cooper this coming cycle (fingers crossed), a looming and quite serious challenge to the absurd Ted Budd, and (beyond the Senate) Riggs' victory and Stein's massive success.
I was thinking NC at the time Hagan won was pretty reliably red, it's pinked up since.
A few key trends are working in our favor. First, Alaska is not a deeply socially conservative state like those in the South. Its unique geography and history of settlement have made it more socially libertarian, with many voters favoring a mix of moderate economics, accessible healthcare, social liberalism, LGBTQ rights, pro-gun values, and pro-oil policies. Pols like Mary Peltola and Lisa Murkowski reflect this profile well. Trump's approval rating sits about 10 points underwater in the state, underscoring the shift.
Two decades ago, Republicans in Alaska largely aligned with this moderate-libertarian blend, but the national party’s sharp turn to the hard right has made the state more competitive. At the same time, demographic shifts are also at play: Alaska Native communities, which have higher birth rates, are growing, while many white residents are moving to the lower 48. Additionally, there's been an influx of Filipino fishermen and the suburbs have been shifting blue like in every other state in the union. Both groups tend to lean Democratic and would support candidates like Peltola.
It’s important to note, however, that the national Democratic Party doesn't perfectly align with this unique Alaskan profile—another reason why figures like Peltola resonate so strongly at the local level.
https://www.270towin.com/states/alaska
This is the kind of shit we are going to be dealing with in Republican-run states all over the country - and worse:
https://www.propublica.org/article/tarrant-county-texas-polling-sites-early-voting-cuts
"Officials in a large North Texas county decided this week to cut more than 100 Election Day polling sites and reduce the number of early voting locations, amid growing concern about GOP efforts to limit voting access ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
The 3-2 vote on Tuesday by commissioners in Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth, came one day after President Donald Trump vowed to end the use of mail-in ballots."
PPP poll shows Ernst in the 40s with small leads over all Democratic opponents: https://littlevillagemag.com/new-poll-finds-sen-joni-ernst-struggling/
What's PPP's track record in polling Iowa?
Ernst leads Zach Wahls by only 43%-42%. Her leads over Nathan Sage, Jackie Norris and Josh Turek are by 3-4 points. Of note as well, Ernst never gets above 45%.
Poll commissioned by Wahls campaign
Back in 2020, a PPP poll from 11/1 - 11/2 showed Democratic Senate Candidate Theresa Greenfield polling at +1. Greenfield ended up losing to Joni Ernst 6.59% points.
That said, even while as Paleo pointed out that the article mentioned the PPP poll was requested by the Wahls Senate campaign, I wouldn't be surprised that more polls in the coming months show Ernst won't be polling great. Either it will be mixed or Ernst will be polling poorly.
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/IowaResultsNovember2020.pdf
Whether we face Ernst or Hinson, this seems most likely to me to be the sort of race where the polling often looks promising but ultimately isn't born out, and we lose by a decisive if not landslide margin.
Though that should be qualified by the potential for a wave or at least significant anti-Republican backlash, and we've seen some elections in Iowa this year that do indicate that Dems may in fact be getting things together.
Yes, we definitely have. So I'm guardedly hopeful, but this contest is so far Lean-R at best.
Ernst approval is 37-50, Trump is at 50-46, it's mandatory for any good republican to approve of Trump when asked not so for Ernst
I find it somewhat hard to believe that Ernst's favourability (not approval) is that low, especially compared to Trump. I doubt her foot in mouth episode regarding Medicaid really had that much impact.
And we'd probably need Trump's approval or favourability to be significantly lower--which could happen--to have a chance at a Senate seat, though those numbers might be good enough for Dems to win either or both of the bluer House districts (1 and 3.)
https://foxbaltimore.com/news/local/wes-moore-abigail-spanberger-redrawing-maryland-congressional-districts-map-virginia-election-2025-governor-race-redistricting-winsome-earle-sears-texas-gerrymandering-florida-missouri-indiana-andy-harris
Sorry to link Fox, but they're the source of a PoliticalWire story, and the news is relevant, with quotes worth reading:
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore said Sunday he is considering redrawing the state’s congressional districts, a move that could reshape Maryland’s lone Republican-held seat.
Moore, a Democrat, told CBS's Face The Nation host that “all options are on the table” in response to Republican-led states advancing new maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Abigail Spanberger said she has “no plans” to redraw lines if elected.
Short answer is no,” Spanberger said. “Virginia by constitutional amendment has a new redistricting effort that was put in place and first utilized in the 2021 redistricting. I’ve been watching with interest what other states are doing, but I have no plans to redistrict Virginia.
Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears said, "I don't see the need for it. I think we're fine. But you know, we'll just cross that bridge when we come to it."
My comments: Earle-Sears' opinion is not very relevant in the sense that she seems unlikely to win the gubernatorial election, but it's interesting that she didn't say "no."
Spanberger said "no plans", which does not necessarily mean "no, not ever". But even if she and a Dem legislature decided to go ahead with it, the process for changing the commission based redistricting process is such that a new map is unlikely to be in effect before 2028, if then.
The same would be true for an Earle-Sears led GOP trifecta, which seems unlikely to exist during the next several years in any event.
The soonest VA could redistrict given the process for constitutional amendments is 2029 assuming it passes. Would it even be worth it to do a redraw for essentially one election in 2030?
Probably not.
You guys make me laugh - did the Ohio gqp legislature worry about their pesky little state constitution when ignoring the Ohio Supreme Court? Fire with fire means fuck all these rules and guidelines and use your power to do what needs to be done.
You're laughing at drawing the line at violating the constitution?
If you’re going to fight then you don’t fight with one hand tied behind your back. The time for norms and rules is after we win the fight. If the Ohio legislature can ignore their Supreme Court and state constitution then why should we care about those same things in blue states? Fire with fire means just that.
I should have used a term other than laugh but my point is either we match them move for move or we’re cooked.
You can't fight fascism by ignoring legitimate constitutional provisions and legitimate enforcement of those. We're not talking about a Nazi constitution or Soviet court rulings right now. I can see reasons for refusing to accept unconstitutional rulings by the corrupt Supreme Court, but that's not what you're advocating.
Right now, priority #1 is making sure Spanberger is elected as VA Governor but if she and Earle-Sears aren't making it an issue in the campaign, then I'm not going to get worked up about it too much just yet until after Spanberger gets elected.
Redistricting in Maryland is fine as it's a blue state. If Andy Harris can get the boot out from this, great.
As far as VA, when was the last time there was redistricting? I forget when exactly but didn't it happen years ago?
My take on Spanberger's answer is that by the time she would be inaugurated, she (and the rest of the nation) would be able to see whether Newsom and the Cali Dem Party were able to successfully circumnavigate their state constitution, so she's choosing to remain publicly mum on the issue until then
IA Sen-1: Laura Belin has an excellent preview of tomorrow's special election including the voting history of the district, the partisan registration numbers, and the early votes. (Democrats have a slight turn-out lead as of 8/23.) https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2025/08/24/iowa-senate-district-1-election-preview-catelin-drey-vs-christopher-prosch/
It seems the NYT is churning out a 'Dems are dooomed' article every week now. Last week it was gloomy registration #'s and now its census projections that are six years out. It's especially frustrating since election junkies know its way more complex than their reporting.
Trump won PA when Dems had a 500K voter edge back in 2016 and Biden won it in 2020 when the edge was even smaller while Harris did better in NC than Hillary even as Dems registration edge has dwindled since 2016. We've known scores of voters have been voting contrary to their party registration for years now and change their registration eventually but the NYT spins it as apocalyptic. Every census projections ahead of 2020 indicated Rhode Island & Minnesota would lose seats while IL & NY would lose even more, it didn't happen.
Eh, NYT needs hits. That's more the less the state of the newspaper industry. Even the Wall Street Journal is pushing out more job seeker challenge articles these days and it's known for being the one place where you always get your ins and outs with stock market and general business information.
I can read business articles through the SF Business Times (which I am a subscriber of) and get no nonsense this way. Of course, Biz Journals, which owns SF Business Times and other local news publications in multiple cities, has long relied on a subscription-based model well before NY Times and others.
Also, I think this is a part of their series of Bill Clinton 2.0 Dreamin' articles where they also lament that they can't crush the left which is more powerful nowadays anymore. The logic being that the worse state the Democratic party is in, the easier it is to take over just like 1992.
Ahhh yes, more of the same reporting based on narrative garbage.
I just love real, objective and non-biased reporting. I don’t believe in principle The NY Times, Washington Post, etc. should have to sell out in order to be relevant but they do.
Don't subscribe and don't click their links.
A few more updates.
NY-22:
https://www.romesentinel.com/news/john-salka-ny-22-congressional-race-2026-john-mannion-john-lemondes/article_3a62365b-7a79-40fc-a670-dd9202726589.html
Republican ex-State Assemb. John Salka withdrew from this race -- meaning the sole GOP candidate is now State Assemb. John Lemondes.
IL-17:
https://www.wqad.com/article/news/politics/illinois-politics/illinois-17th-district-race-montez-soliz-eric-sorensen/526-2778ecf2-7ede-40ef-863b-e58be94dbd9a
Another left primary challenger, this time against incumbent Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen. Montez Soliz is the challenger -- he's a former Lauren Underwood staffer. He's running on a progressive platform, including support for Medicare for All and a $20 minimum wage.
CA redistricting referendum:
https://www.kcra.com/article/california-legislative-leaders-seats-congress-new-maps/65802593
Democratic State Assemb. and DCCC recruit for CA-22 Jasmeet Bains opposes the redistricting effort apparently? I consider this ridiculous, particularly for a DCCC recruit. Shameful.
Then she shouldn't run for the seat out of principal
(Principle.)
If you run in a swing districts in CA opposing the redistricting effort is good politics. Bains will gain votes for that in CA-22 and it won't matter statewide.
Perhaps. I just worry that such actions could ultimately cost us referendum votes -- and could lead to some Republicans claiming Democratic support for a No vote.
Utah court orders new Congressional map drawn to adhere to amendment: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2025/08/25/utah-judge-orders-new-non/
They have 30 days to fix it, but could appeal to the state Supreme court.
I wish our old friend Gygaxian were here to see this.
Yay! I just commented last week that a ruling would be eminent.
What does this mean?
There may be a light red district at worst in UT.
As opposed to a red light district, which they wouldn't have and which is what I read at first...
Utah's red light districts are in Nevada.
UT 4 could become winnable again.
I have no doubt she (Gygaxian) is aware!