Morning Digest: The GOP has booked bupkes in New Jersey and Virginia

And time is running out to make new ad reservations

The two Republicans running for governor in 2025: Virginia’s Winsome Earle-Sears (at left) and New Jersey’s Jack Ciattarelli (credit: Winsome Earle-Sears & Jack Ciattarelli Facebook pages)

Leading Off

NJ-Gov, VA-Gov

Republicans currently have a combined total of $0.00 in ad time reserved for the final two months of both of this year's gubernatorial elections, AdImpact reports.

By contrast, New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill and her allies have booked over $17 million from Sept. 1 onward to defeat Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Fellow Democrat Abigail Spanberger, meanwhile, just reserved $10 million for her campaign against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia.

It's by no means too late for Republican candidates and outside groups to follow suit, though the longer they procrastinate, the more they'll need to pay.

Earle-Sears, who has spent months dealing with a seemingly never-ending cascade of stories detailing the lack of confidence fellow Republicans have in her campaign, may be waiting in vain for big money to rush to her aid. One former GOP legislator recently griped to the conservative National Review that Earle-Sears hasn't contacted prominent GOP donors during her time of need.

Ciattarelli, though, hasn't been the target of any such brickbats, so it would be a surprise if deep-pocketed Republicans don't show up for him. But with so little time left before Labor Day—the holiday that marks the unofficial start of the final and most important phase of the general election—we likely won't have to wonder for much longer.

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The Downballot Podcast

How CA Dems aim to squeeze out the GOP

Now that California has unveiled its response to the Texas GOP's new gerrymander, we're examining the map district by district on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. We discuss all of the Republican seats that Democrats are targeting; what Plan B might look like for screwed-over GOP incumbents; which California Democrats are making the biggest sacrifices; and much, much more.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also take stock of a new Democratic challenger running against Maine Sen. Susan Collins: Graham Platner, a military veteran and oyster farmer whose campaign launch this week took the political world by storm. We explore what longtime politicos might have to learn from a first-time candidate like Platner—and how his message about affordability shares much in common with that of a very different candidate who's also shaking up Democratic politics.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Redistricting Roundup

IL Redistricting

A bipartisan coalition in Illinois is hoping to qualify an amendment for next year's ballot that would curb gerrymandering during the legislative redistricting process.

The proposal would take responsibility for drawing new lines for the state House and Senate away from the legislature and hand it over to a redistricting commission, which would be forbidden from taking partisan considerations into account. It would not apply to congressional redistricting.

Supporters include two former Cabinet secretaries who served under Barack Obama: Republican Ray LaHood, who ran the Department of Transportation, and Democrat Bill Daley, who helmed the Commerce Department. Organizers would need to obtain nearly 330,000 signatures to put their amendment before voters.

LA Redistricting

Republican leaders in Louisiana's GOP-dominated legislature are preparing for a special session this fall to once again redraw their state's congressional map, but the chance they get to do so depends on the Supreme Court issuing a lightning-fast ruling in a pending appeal.

The justices recently scheduled oral arguments for Oct. 15 in a case out of Louisiana that could see the court's far-right supermajority demolish what remains of the Voting Rights Act. That would allow Republicans both in the state and across the country to dismantle districts drawn to ensure minority voters can elect their preferred candidates.

To prepare for the possibility that they could eliminate one or both of Louisiana's two majority-Black districts, state House Speaker Phillip DeVillier told lawmakers this week that they should be available between Oct. 23 and Nov. 13, according to NOLA.com.

That window would only open, though, should the Supreme Court move with unusual alacrity. A 2022 study from SCOTUSblog found the court took an average of 122 days following oral arguments to publish a decision during the previous term. More recent data the study's authors shared with The Downballot shows the typical lag has dropped somewhat in more recent terms but remains over 100 days.

One factor favors a quicker ruling, though: The justices already heard initial arguments in March before unexpectedly ordering additional briefing and a new round of arguments in June.

TX Redistricting

The Texas House approved the new congressional gerrymander sought by Donald Trump in a party-line vote on Wednesday. The state Senate is likely to follow suit this week, sending the map—which aims to flip five Democratic-held seats—to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott for his signature.

Governors

GA-Gov

State Rep. Ruwa Romman, who is one of the most prominent progressives in the Georgia legislature, has confirmed that she's interested in seeking the Democratic nomination for governor.

"Isn't it time to imagine what could be instead of insisting that what currently exists is the only possibility?" she asked the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Several other Democrats are already running to lead Georgia, which last elected a Democratic governor in 1998.

IA-Gov

Republican Adam Steen announced Tuesday evening that he would run to succeed retiring Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, a declaration that came hours after he officially resigned as head of the state's Department of Administrative Services.

Steen, a pastor who touts himself as "the Jesus guy," told supporters he was "the guy that stood in front of the Satanists when they blatantly targeted our children, and I'm the guy getting sued by the Satanists for protecting our children."

That's a reference to Steen's successful effort last year to prevent the Satanic Temple of Iowa from holding a holiday event at the state capitol. The group has since taken legal action over the incident.

Steen, who worked in the private sector before he joined the Reynolds administration in 2021, also said he backs "everything that Gov. Reynolds is doing." Reynolds has not yet said if she has a preferred successor.

The GOP field already includes state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former state Rep. Brad Sherman—who are also both Christian pastors—while an all-but-announced candidate is about to become an announced candidate.

Rep. Randy Feenstra, who formed an exploratory committee in May, told Radio Iowa last week that he'd declare his plans in September. State Sen. Mike Bousselot also created an exploratory committee in the spring, but unlike Feenstra, he doesn't appear to have made a final decision yet.

Things are considerably less crowded on the Democratic side, where Auditor Rob Sand is the heavy favorite against political operative Julie Stauch.

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MD-Gov

Wealthy businessman Ed Hale said Wednesday that he'd seek the Republican nomination to take on Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, an announcement that comes more than three months after Hale initially said he'd challenge Moore in the Democratic primary.

Hale, the 78-year-old owner of the Baltimore Blast indoor soccer team, made his party switch a week after former Gov. Larry Hogan set off a fresh round of speculation that he might enter the GOP primary to regain his old job. It's far from clear, though, just how serious Hogan is: One unnamed Democratic operative told Politico, "He's fucking around…there's no operation being built as far as we can tell…He's a bored narcissist."

MN-Gov

State Rep. Kristin Robbins on Wednesday joined the race to oppose Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, arguing that she has what it takes to be the first Minnesota Republican to win statewide office in two decades.

Robbins' intraparty enemies, however, believe her decision to back Nikki Haley for president over Donald Trump will keep her name from gracing next year's general election ballot.

"Robbins chaired Nikki Haley's America Last campaign in Minnesota," a GOP operative told Fox News back in February. "Her candidacy is dead on arrival."

Those comments came at a time when Robbins was considering whether to run to succeed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who unexpectedly announced her retirement this winter. Robbins apparently agreed that her association with Haley was potentially toxic to the base: Heartland Signal flagged the following month that she had "seemingly scrubbed her X account of pro-Haley content."

Robbins ultimately decided not to run for the Senate—and the GOP is still awaiting its first viable candidate—but she expressed optimism that primary voters would not write her campaign off as DOA.

"I supported Nikki because I thought she'd be a great president, but when she dropped out, I supported President Trump," she told the Minnesota Star Tribune.

Robbins also used her announcement video to promote herself as an ardent conservative. The legislator embraced the transphobic messaging Republicans have deployed across the country as she accused Walz of "letting biological boys into girls' bathrooms, locker rooms, and sports teams."

Robbins joins former state Sen. Scott Jensen and businessman Kendall Qualls, who both unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022, in the race for the GOP nod—and the field could continue to grow.

Chris Madel, a prominent attorney who didn't rule out running earlier this year, recently told Star Tribune columnist Rochelle Olson, "If I thought that there was a Republican announced candidate, or someone ... in the wings that could actually win the election, I'd be sitting on my hands."

But Robbins, who won reelection last year 57-43 in a suburban Minneapolis seat that Trump only narrowly carried, believes the GOP now has that candidate—and she wants to make that case to primary voters even if she needs to defy party activists to do it.

The representative told Minnesota Public Radio that she intends to keep running for the nomination even if she fails to win her party's endorsement at next spring's biennial convention.

"I'm going to stay in this race as long as I think I'm the best one to win the general," she said. "We have to win the general, and so as long as I think I'm best positioned to do that, I'll be in this race."

That's unlikely to be welcome news to the hardliners who dominate Minnesota GOP conventions and seek to enforce their results vigorously. These gatherings play an unusual role, with candidates from both parties often pledging to, in local parlance, "abide" by convention endorsements and end their campaigns if someone else wins.

In recent years, though, that tradition has grown weaker on the Democratic side. Many Minnesota Democrats, including Walz in 2018, have recovered from a convention loss and gone on to win their primaries, but Republicans haven't been so forgiving.

The only time in more than three decades that a GOP candidate for statewide office has lost their party's endorsement but secured the nomination was in 1994, when delegates rejected moderate Gov. Arne Carlson months before he handily won both the primary and general election.

This pattern persisted in 2022, when Jensen, who campaigned as a hardliner, vanquished Qualls and three other candidates at the convention and went on to win the primary without any opposition.

The Minnesota Post's Steven Schier later described Jensen's convention victory as "the moment in 2022 when the Minnesota Republican Party's fate in state elections was sealed," shortly after Walz turned him aside by a 52-45 margin.

House

CA-40

Immigration attorney Lisa Ramirez announced Wednesday that she'd run as a Democrat against Republican Rep. Young Kim in the 40th District—and says she'll keep running here even if redistricting makes this Southern California constituency much redder.

"I can't control what the people in California are going to ultimately decide," Ramirez informed Politico. "But I'm committed to flipping the seat. Period."

Ramirez isn't the only Democrat who says she wants to run for the 40th no matter what it winds up looking like. Art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet, who began campaigning against Kim early this year, told Politico, "I'm a good candidate to troll her."

If Californians vote to temporarily replace the state's current congressional map with new boundaries drawn to counter a planned GOP gerrymander in Texas, the 40th would transform from a light-red seat into a Republican vote sink to help make surrounding districts bluer.

Such a change would extend Donald Trump's margin of victory in the 40th from just 2 points to about a dozen. It could also set off a clash between Kim and fellow GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in next year's top-two primary.

Morning Digest: California's new House districts set pols scrambling

FL-15

Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Kimberly Overman announced this week that she was entering the Democratic primary to oppose GOP Rep. Laurel Lee in Florida's 15th District, a conservative constituency based in the Tampa suburbs.

Overman was elected in 2018 in a race that helped put her party in control of the County Commission for the first time in 14 years. Four years later, though, she lost reelection 52-48 in what Florida Politics described at the time as a "shocking" Republican win that helped restore the GOP's majority.

Overman launched her new campaign almost a month after Air Force veteran Darren McAuley became the first notable Democrat to take on Lee.

Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried the 15th 55-44 after taking it just 51-48 in 2020. These numbers could change, though, if Sunshine State Republicans make good on their threats to pass a new gerrymander.

Morning Digest: Florida Republicans prepare to re-gerrymander their map, too

FL-27

Former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey said Wednesday that he was ending his campaign against Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar and endorsing attorney Robin Peguero for the Democratic nomination.

Peguero, who served as counsel for the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attacks, still faces businessman Richard Lamondin in the primary for Florida's 27th District. Donald Trump carried this Miami-based constituency by a 57-42 margin last year, a huge jump from his tiny 49.9 to 49.6 victory in 2020.

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MA-01

Public school teacher Jeromie Whalen announced this week that he would challenge longtime Rep. Richard Neal in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts' 1st District, a reliably blue seat that's home to Springfield and the Berkshires.

"We have the historical lows for the Democratic Party. The writing is all on the wall that we need change," Whalen told Politico. "I see the current establishment and the current Democratic representation in [the district] with Richard Neal as an impediment to that."

Neal, 76, was first elected to represent Western Massachusetts in 1988, and he's seldom faced serious threats at the ballot box.

The congressman, though, had to fight for renomination in 2020 against Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse, who argued that Neal was too close to special interests. Morse also charged that Neal, who was chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, had done a poor job using his post to combat the Trump administration.

Neal prevailed 59-41, which made this the first time he failed to clear 60% of the vote in a primary since 1992. The incumbent, though, went on to win his next two campaigns without intra-party opposition, and he's used the time to restock his campaign war chest, finishing June with just under $4 million in the bank.

That's not the only reason why no one should expect him to leave the House willingly anytime soon: Neal is still the top Democrat on Ways and Means, and he hopes to become chair again if his party returns to the majority.

Whalen, though, has over a year to make his case. His showdown with Neal is set for Sept. 15, which is the very last downballot primary date in the country. (Delaware is also scheduled to hold its primary that day.)

There have been proposals over the years to move Massachusetts' nomination contests to the spring, but the only question right now seems to be exactly which day in September it will take place. Democratic Gov. Maura Healey is trying to convince legislators to reschedule next year's primary for Sept. 1, which would place it just before Labor Day.

NM-02

Three Republican lawmakers are considering challenging Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico's swingy 2nd District, the Cook Political Report's Matthew Klein reports: state Sens. Crystal Brantley and Gabriel Ramos, and state Rep. Rebecca Dow.

Vasquez currently lacks serious opposition in a constituency that Donald Trump carried 50-48 four years after Joe Biden took it 52-46. The most notable declared Republican contender is conservative radio host Eddy Aragon, a frequent candidate who raised all of $3,000 during his opening quarter.

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield received an endorsement on Wednesday from Mayor Mike Duggan, whom she's hoping to succeed this fall.

Duggan, who is running for governor as an independent, took sides two weeks after Sheffield far outpaced pastor Solomon Kinloch 51-17 in the officially nonpartisan primary. Sheffield and Kinloch, who both identify as Democrats, will face off again on Nov. 4.

Judges

MS Supreme Court

A federal court has barred Mississippi from using its map for electing justices to the state Supreme Court, finding that it violates the Voting Rights Act by unlawfully diminishing the power of Black voters.

District Judge Sharion Aycock, an appointee of George W. Bush, directed the legislature to draw a new map and said she would hold a status conference to set a deadline for lawmakers to act.

Mississippi is unusual among states that elect supreme court justices because it's one of just four that choose them by district rather than on a statewide basis. (The other three are Illinois, Kentucky, and Louisiana.) However, its three districts all run east-west, splitting up Black voters along the Mississippi Delta and allowing white candidates to dominate in Supreme Court elections.

In a 105-page opinion, Aycock highlighted this problem, noting that only four Black people have ever served on the state's top court and that all were originally appointed to their posts—despite the fact that 36% of Mississippians are Black, according to the 2020 census. Any remedial plan would almost certainly unite the Delta in a single district, as the plaintiffs demonstrated in a pair of illustrative maps.