Ok, so if every republican state that has threatened to re-gerrymander follows through (TX, IN, MO, FL, OH) but CA responds, dems would need to win nearly all of the remaining toss up seats to get to 218. But if the VRA is destroyed, southern states like LA, MS, AL, and SC could eliminate their black majority seats. GA might eliminate Bishop Jr's seat as well, maybe more. Then dems would need to win every toss up seat and a handful of "reach" seats (Whittman VA-1, Huizenga MI-4, maybe Gonzalez TX-34 can hang on etc.) to have a chance at 218. Very difficult, but possible.
If the VRA is destroyed and Republicans eliminate Dem seats in the states you mention, Dems would have to make every district in Illinois (except maybe one)spindle into Chicago. Dems would also have to go for 8-0 in Maryland. And if they can do NY redistricting in 2028, draw all four LI districts into NYC and of course pair SI with Lower Manhattan rather than the Bay Ridge/Bensonhurst area (this should have been done in 2024 and it wouldn’t have even looked particularly bad). They’d also have to pair the most R parts of Rockland county with the Bronx in order to make NY-17 unwinnable for Lawler or any Republican.
That’s a whole lot of “ifs”, so it’s almost impossible to really say whether this is even plausible.
Texas and Ohio are the only 2 we know for sure (and we don’t know how many seats the GOP will try to draw out in the latter). The rest are completely up in the air. I don’t doubt that every GOP state WANTS to draw out more Democrats in subservience to Trump, but I do doubt that every state will actually do so for a long list of different reasons varied by state.
Even if they all did though, you’re making a shaky assumption in this hypothetical scenario that no other Democratic state would redraw in response. You’re also assuming the VRA is dead when even the Trump Supreme court forced AL to draw a 2nd black district, which is definitely not guaranteed.
This is the Democrats worst possible outcome. Where no other blue states redraw, where VRA is ended by justices who recently ruled it’s valid (I know, not technically what they ruled on, but in essence that’s pretty much what they said when they had the opportunity to rule it unconstitutional), where every Republican state redraws and if that happens yes, we are screwed in 2026.
While an interesting breakdown to analyze, it’s extremely unlikely it plays out exactly like this though.
And if they don't get it? Why are they so caught up in something that can't be granted? The law is clear, with no "silence is consent" BS: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/13/141
Didn't RDS burn bridges with the FL legislature last year? Some of the stuff he tried this year got killed in committee or didn't make it to a vote.
He doesn't have that pull like he did in 2022, pushing those 13 week and 6-week abortion bans through as well as his failed culture war on Disney and making voters renew their VBM mail request after every federal election (instead of every 4 years).
Call me crazy, but I really don’t understand why conventional wisdom has the redrawn 40th district in California as Safe R. Trump won by 12 in 2024, yes, it’s not going to fall unless it’s a pretty big wave. However, a Calvert vs Kim Republican incumbent slugfest primary draining their bank accounts with each trying to prove they are the most Trump supportive candidate gives Democrats a really good potential opening here imo.
Not to mention the fact we know to near certainty 2026 will be at the very least, a less red year and electorate than 2024 was. Likely R would seem to be the most appropriate rating for the district no?
When we've discussed R+ districts in California before, it's been stated that support for Republicans tends to be pretty inflexible in Republican areas of the state, so I'm guessing that safe-R is the correct opening rating in such a district.
Ken Calvert vs Young Kim. Kevin Kiley is in a NorCal seat east of Sacramento. While I like to say that "Young Kim is getting old fast", I think she would be favored against the ancient and corrupt GOP backbencher Ken Calvert. He has been in Congress since 1993 but is still most famous for getting a blowjob from a sex worker in his car. He didn't even get a room, which would have stimulated the local tourist hospitality industry. The other thing he is known for is securing funding for a freeway exit that would increase the value of some land he owned nearby. He is a complete waste of a seat in Congress...
Social media ad from Young Kim: Ken Calvert doesn't even support the hospitality industry by getting a room. IYKYK. Lol Not sure Gen Z/Millennials would care, but it cracks me up.
Pew’s religiosity survey from earlier in the year finds the demographic decline of Christianity still occurring, if at a slower pace than previously. One interesting aspect that seems anecdotally correct to me is the narrowing of the traditional aspect of women being more religious than men
I'm actually not sure how to feel about this, as a left-wing Lutheran Christian who despises what has become of my religion. On one hand, a lot of contemporary Christians have effectively brought it upon themselves, but on the other, there are still a lot of liberal Christians out there -- I know several.
I'm conflicted about it too. I grew up going to white evangelical churches and it never took. One of the big reasons why were the flyers I saw in the church lobby post 9/11, saying that we should pray for Muslim people and gay people. And I'm like, why and for what? And when I was sitting through sermons, I didn't like how long they were and the political undertones some of the older pastors were pushing (especially post 2008 election).
I went to a liberal arts college in Virginia that was affiliated with UMC -- and it was much better. There was a stronger emphasis on service and community and less on "saving" people. But I was still pretty agnostic up until I went to a Greek Orthodox service two years ago. It was a spiritual awakening, it was beautiful, and it felt completely aligned with my progressive views.
I feel grateful to UMC and the Greek Orthodox Church for my spiritual awakening. The Christian nationalist movement can go to hell as far I'm concerned.
I grew up attending Eastern Orthodox services and while I wouldn’t quite say I found it progressive it was definitely spiritual and apolitical in a very profound way, and also inoculated me sufficiently to detect how much of American evangelicalism is nonsensical bullshit
I'll grant that the Orthodox Church is not progressive, but it's more of a moderate mentality. It's also more evenly split politically, so you have elected officials like former Dem House Rep Mary Petola-AK (Russian Orthodox), Dem House Rep Chris Pappas- NH (gay and Greek Orthodox), his fellow NH Rep Maggie Goodlander (GO) and Rep House Rep Nicole Malliotakis (NY, also GO).
With that kind of composition, there's not much incentive for Orthodox leadership to entertain unpopular culture wars.
As someone who moonlights as an ELCA church organist and is drawn toward liturgical Protestantism (son of a Catholic and a Methodist, so I guess that was a logical place to land!), I too have very mixed feelings.
I fear that the future of "denominational" churches (especially those of a liberal bent) is that they will be clustered in large cities and their moneyed suburbs, and all but die everywhere else.
On a related note, the infamous fundamentalist James Dobson kicked the bucket today. I would place him and the equally reviled Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson and John MacArthur as the main reasons why people are leaving religion entirely or going to a more affirming sect.
Religion and politics should never mix. And our country is all the worse for the unholy Republican and Christian nationalism/Opus Dei alliance that started under Reagan.
Yeah, if those places exist he is going to the one with the New Jersey hockey players and not the Anaheim baseball players. (NJ has the Devils; Anaheim has the Angels.)
I haven't finished reading the Pew report, but the trend had been for mainline religions to lose adherents while extreme right-wing religions gained adherents. Have evangelical forms of Christianity lost adherents in the U.S. on net?
What's interesting is that upwards of 75% of people who identified as Muslim, Jewish or Hindu during childhood still identify with it as adults. Compared to 66% of Orthodox Christians or 57% of Roman Catholics.
That makes some sense to me. Those religions have substantial overlap with specific minority groups in the US. For them, religious activity will play double duty as ways to maintain association with people of a similar ethnic background. That's far less applicable to christianity in the US.
This tracks with my experience. Growing up in the Upper Midwest all my friends who were religious/church-going Catholics have since dropped out and shifted from R to D except for my friend who is a priest (ha!). Those who were Muslim or Jewish remain. My protestant friends were mostly like me and quit church in college.
Now living in the South, the local Catholic church appears to be thriving and their community service is excellent. The discord in the UMC is tearing it apart and we refuse to attend the local one anymore even on holidays with inlaws. But the Baptists seem to be staying the course.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) has announced his candidacy for state attorney general to succeed Ken Paxton, who is running for the Senate. Although Roy voted to certify the 2020 election, criticized the January 6 insurrection, and called for Paxton's resignation, he generally represents the far-right reaches of MAGA, as demonstrated by his candidacy statement: "Texas is under assault — from open-border politicians, radical leftists and faceless foreign corporations that threaten our sovereignty, safety and our way of life. . . . No more Soros-funded judges and [district attorneys] putting criminals on our streets. No more judge-made mandates that Texas pay for illegals in our public schools. No more communities built on Sharia law." https://www.texastribune.org/2025/08/21/chip-roy-attorney-general-republican-primary-2026-paxton/
We should probably start counting how many Republicans are leaving the House on their own free will because they see what’s coming in 2026. Elections in 2018 became a wave narrative early from how many incumbents retired or ran for other offices. Does TDB keep track of something like that?
We’ve gotta be approaching over a dozen already or so no? Nancy Mace, Chip Roy, Don Bacon, Barry Moore, Mike Collins, Buddy Carter, Andy Barr, Ralph Norman, Dusty Johnson, Byron Donalds, Randy Feenstra, John James, John Rose, Andy Biggs. Am I missing anyone?
That compares to just 8 Democrats leaving, 5 of whom are running for Senate while only 4 Republicans out of 14 leaving are running for Senate. The rest are trying to get elected into state government except Bacon who’s retiring.
Only 2 (or maybe 3 if you count KY-06) have resulted in open seats in competitive districts so far, but the rest seem to be taking any state government race available to run in so they’re not in the minority they’ve deserved to be permanently in since 2016. Alas Americans are not educated enough to do that, but hopefully they will be smart enough for at least 2026.
Forget the GCB or party approval, the lawmakers themselves are painting a pretty clear picture of the current political environment. They are the first sign of a wave forming and it’s hard to not see the large number of people leaving as anything, but that.
But if the environment is bad for Republicans nationally, why would a Republican member of Congress give up incumbency to run for a state office (as a Republican)?
Longer terms, more independence, not having to serve in the minority if Democrats win the House, clearer path to higher office (Abbott can't live forever), not based in DC, etc.
Patrick will be 80 in 2030. His chance to be Governor probably passed when Abbott announced he was running again. The winner of the AG's race will be in a really good spot to succeed Abbott since Patrick won't run.
Those are cogent reasons for running for state office, but not necessarily signs of an impending blue wave. If there is a Democratic wave, it is likely to affect candidates at the state level at least as much as those on the national level.
You are practically promised a win at the state level if you make it out of the primary in, say, SC (Norman and Mace). Appearances are you'll be in the minority in DC and except for Bacon you may have no relationship with the future majority to get anything done/mediated.
I’m struggling to see how mail voting has anything to do with this when the GOP regularly cleans up in heavy mail states like Utah, Arizona and Florida
Utah is scrapping their all-mail voting after 2028 -- come 2029, voters have to request and provide voter ID information to get VBM ballots. We can thank Project 2025 for that.
The "logic" is that it "explains" his 2020 loss, since Democrats disproportionately used mail ballots in that election. Doesn't matter than evidence doesn't otherwise support claims that mail ballots favor one side or the other. It's all about his own internal narrative around 2020.
Elect a King and he expects to have permanent rule. Stupid people (aka a majority of Americans), this is what you voted for, I hope you’re happy now! Obviously he won’t get 100 seats, that’s literally impossible and he is stupidest fucking idiot in the country, but people wanted him president for whatever justification they used.
The one solace I have is that I get to see Democrats hopefully take back the Senate and the House so finally he can be successfully convicted of his countless crimes (and yes, change the filibuster, or the 2/3rds majority or whatever is necessary to make sure that history knows how awful a president he is/was and forever will be).
Welcome back Biden coalition! Minorities voted Trump for a secure border and lower prices but he gave them tariffs, inflation, mass deportations and blood and soil racism instead.
Loads of comments on x ripping the pollster...probably just a bunch of mental defectives looking for an excuse...is there anything to the ranting that this pollster sux?
Rutgers Eagleton is the leading pollster in New Jersey and has been polling the state for decades. Except for the Christie Whitman races where they first underestimated and then overestimated her, they have a good track record.
Anyone who expects something different from New Jersey in this political climate is probably not politically astute enough to judge a pollster's credibility.
You can solely blame Lofgren for that one for no good reason (and I hope she’s primaried out for that reason). At least if this amendment passes they can adjust the map for 2028.
As pointed out in the Downballot podcast, Lofgren has been doing media hits backing the redistricting effort, I wonder if it's more Assembly Speaker Rivas keeping the district bluer so he can run.
I’m sorry, but how can you not raise money in this kind of political environment after Republicans passed one of the most unpopular bills of all time? Come on, Martin. Other Dem orgs aren’t having the same struggle either. Ok great, we’re winning special elections, but we kind of need to win future elections too! And that costs money. So disappointed Wikler lost, he would’ve been an incredible chair for us.
POLITICO - Cash on Hand (as of 7/31)
🔴 RNC - $84.3M
🔵 DNC - $13.9M
The DNC has less cash this summer than it did at any point in the last five years, according to POLITICO
The DCCC raked in $7.6 million in July and has $40 million cash on hand. That narrowly outstripped the NRCC, which raised $6.1 million and has $37.6 million in the bank.
The party wide national committee always has more fundraising for the party holding the presidency. That disparity does look a decent bit larger than typical to me but that's a hazy recollection, so I could be wrong. We should expect the RNC to outraise the DNC the entire time we're out of power. Holding the presidency does a lot to enable big ticket national party fundraising.
How will this affect 2026? Should we be concerned?
I’ll note that a fear I have is that Martin will be thrown out, but that instead of Wikler being the replacement, it will be some neoliberal hack who tries to screw over progressives. Notably, a lot of opposition to Martin has been from the business lobby.
Oh, he'll try to change it. (I have no doubt there will be another attempted autogolpe in 2028 or early 2029, unless his cult is over him and/or he's shuffled off this mortal coil by that point.)
You're counting on military personnel to disobey orders? I'd be very cautious about that! By the way, how well behaved have the National Guard been in L.A.?
Fwiw my fiance's brother is stationed at Bragg/Liberty and was required to go stand behind Trump for his weird ass speech and 90% of his (pretty conservative paratrooper friends) thought it was gross and weird. I don't think the rank and file military are hardcore MAGA and wouldn't en masse be down for a coup.
Maybe he can spring George Santos next. (It just doesn't seem fair that the Ravishing Ravache has already spent more time behind bars than Trump likely ever will.)
Ugh, and he was without remorse. If one of his cell mates (Carman Falzone) in the 1970s told it true, Sirhan was a Gaddafi fanboy who proudly embraced his role in changing history.
It looks like the Minnesota DFL is revoking the Minneapolis DFL's endorsement of Omar Fateh in the Minneapolis mayoral race and putting the Minneapolis DFL organization on a two-year probation.
The revocation is apparently due to all sorts of irregularities at the Minneapolis DFL convention, not due to Fateh's ideology or any scandalous behavior by Fateh.
Which would hardly be a surprising outcome of trying to gerrymander a map that was already a pretty egregious gerrymander in the first place! (The media often neglect to point that out.)
I took out “reputation” and mentioned “projects more of a moderate image” instead to better explain my argument.
Because of taking more of a middle of the road approach to issues like the Defund the Police issue instead of being an ideologue like Ken Calvert.
Not arguing she’s got a great track record on issues in general but in my observation, Young Kim hasn’t got the issues that Ken Calvert does. There’s certainly plenty to scrutinize Kim for as far as her record is concerned but she’s also gotten re-elected by double digits. Calvert has not in his last two elections.
Kim was against Defunding the Police but supported efforts to reform the police so they don’t do commit excessive police brutality. Would Calvert even try this while in office? No he wouldn’t.
Kim btw has been criticized by Democrats, at least by the DCCC, as helping support the House GOP in defunding the FBI. Again, she’s not great but she’s also no Michelle Steele either.
Rutgers NJ poll. Mikie nicely up https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1958477665536520308?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Could explain the paucity of ad bookings!
Ok, so if every republican state that has threatened to re-gerrymander follows through (TX, IN, MO, FL, OH) but CA responds, dems would need to win nearly all of the remaining toss up seats to get to 218. But if the VRA is destroyed, southern states like LA, MS, AL, and SC could eliminate their black majority seats. GA might eliminate Bishop Jr's seat as well, maybe more. Then dems would need to win every toss up seat and a handful of "reach" seats (Whittman VA-1, Huizenga MI-4, maybe Gonzalez TX-34 can hang on etc.) to have a chance at 218. Very difficult, but possible.
If the VRA is destroyed and Republicans eliminate Dem seats in the states you mention, Dems would have to make every district in Illinois (except maybe one)spindle into Chicago. Dems would also have to go for 8-0 in Maryland. And if they can do NY redistricting in 2028, draw all four LI districts into NYC and of course pair SI with Lower Manhattan rather than the Bay Ridge/Bensonhurst area (this should have been done in 2024 and it wouldn’t have even looked particularly bad). They’d also have to pair the most R parts of Rockland county with the Bronx in order to make NY-17 unwinnable for Lawler or any Republican.
That’s a whole lot of “ifs”, so it’s almost impossible to really say whether this is even plausible.
Texas and Ohio are the only 2 we know for sure (and we don’t know how many seats the GOP will try to draw out in the latter). The rest are completely up in the air. I don’t doubt that every GOP state WANTS to draw out more Democrats in subservience to Trump, but I do doubt that every state will actually do so for a long list of different reasons varied by state.
Even if they all did though, you’re making a shaky assumption in this hypothetical scenario that no other Democratic state would redraw in response. You’re also assuming the VRA is dead when even the Trump Supreme court forced AL to draw a 2nd black district, which is definitely not guaranteed.
This is the Democrats worst possible outcome. Where no other blue states redraw, where VRA is ended by justices who recently ruled it’s valid (I know, not technically what they ruled on, but in essence that’s pretty much what they said when they had the opportunity to rule it unconstitutional), where every Republican state redraws and if that happens yes, we are screwed in 2026.
While an interesting breakdown to analyze, it’s extremely unlikely it plays out exactly like this though.
Right I just wanted to figure out if dems could still win in the worst case scenario.
Yep. It will require a D+10 electorate for the Dems to win the House if only one-sided redrawing of district lines occurs.
I'm sure Nina Turner's general strike will fix that
In an attempt at vote rigging as brazen as gerrymandering, Governor Ron DeSantis and Attorney General James Uthmeier are insisting that Florida's population was undercounted by the Census and that the state now be given an additional seat in Congress. https://floridaphoenix.com/2025/08/20/florida-to-feds-give-us-another-congressional-seat-or-more-federal-funds/
Just using it as an excuse to gain support for DeSantismander II.
And if they don't get it? Why are they so caught up in something that can't be granted? The law is clear, with no "silence is consent" BS: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/13/141
Furthermore, any "recounts" (a special census in this case) are very narrow in scope and don't revise the decennial counts: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/specialcensus.html
The only possible relief (though it would still be a stretch) would be a Count Question Resolution, which closed off new applications 2 years ago: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/decade/2020/planning-management/evaluate/cqr.html
People get missed in the count every Census. Sucks to suck.
And in every state. Is an undercount more likely in Florida than in, say, New York or California?
Didn't RDS burn bridges with the FL legislature last year? Some of the stuff he tried this year got killed in committee or didn't make it to a vote.
He doesn't have that pull like he did in 2022, pushing those 13 week and 6-week abortion bans through as well as his failed culture war on Disney and making voters renew their VBM mail request after every federal election (instead of every 4 years).
Call me crazy, but I really don’t understand why conventional wisdom has the redrawn 40th district in California as Safe R. Trump won by 12 in 2024, yes, it’s not going to fall unless it’s a pretty big wave. However, a Calvert vs Kim Republican incumbent slugfest primary draining their bank accounts with each trying to prove they are the most Trump supportive candidate gives Democrats a really good potential opening here imo.
Not to mention the fact we know to near certainty 2026 will be at the very least, a less red year and electorate than 2024 was. Likely R would seem to be the most appropriate rating for the district no?
When we've discussed R+ districts in California before, it's been stated that support for Republicans tends to be pretty inflexible in Republican areas of the state, so I'm guessing that safe-R is the correct opening rating in such a district.
Ken Calvert vs Young Kim. Kevin Kiley is in a NorCal seat east of Sacramento. While I like to say that "Young Kim is getting old fast", I think she would be favored against the ancient and corrupt GOP backbencher Ken Calvert. He has been in Congress since 1993 but is still most famous for getting a blowjob from a sex worker in his car. He didn't even get a room, which would have stimulated the local tourist hospitality industry. The other thing he is known for is securing funding for a freeway exit that would increase the value of some land he owned nearby. He is a complete waste of a seat in Congress...
Social media ad from Young Kim: Ken Calvert doesn't even support the hospitality industry by getting a room. IYKYK. Lol Not sure Gen Z/Millennials would care, but it cracks me up.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/decline-of-christianity-in-the-us-has-slowed-may-have-leveled-off/
Pew’s religiosity survey from earlier in the year finds the demographic decline of Christianity still occurring, if at a slower pace than previously. One interesting aspect that seems anecdotally correct to me is the narrowing of the traditional aspect of women being more religious than men
I'm actually not sure how to feel about this, as a left-wing Lutheran Christian who despises what has become of my religion. On one hand, a lot of contemporary Christians have effectively brought it upon themselves, but on the other, there are still a lot of liberal Christians out there -- I know several.
I'm conflicted about it too. I grew up going to white evangelical churches and it never took. One of the big reasons why were the flyers I saw in the church lobby post 9/11, saying that we should pray for Muslim people and gay people. And I'm like, why and for what? And when I was sitting through sermons, I didn't like how long they were and the political undertones some of the older pastors were pushing (especially post 2008 election).
I went to a liberal arts college in Virginia that was affiliated with UMC -- and it was much better. There was a stronger emphasis on service and community and less on "saving" people. But I was still pretty agnostic up until I went to a Greek Orthodox service two years ago. It was a spiritual awakening, it was beautiful, and it felt completely aligned with my progressive views.
I feel grateful to UMC and the Greek Orthodox Church for my spiritual awakening. The Christian nationalist movement can go to hell as far I'm concerned.
I grew up attending Eastern Orthodox services and while I wouldn’t quite say I found it progressive it was definitely spiritual and apolitical in a very profound way, and also inoculated me sufficiently to detect how much of American evangelicalism is nonsensical bullshit
I'll grant that the Orthodox Church is not progressive, but it's more of a moderate mentality. It's also more evenly split politically, so you have elected officials like former Dem House Rep Mary Petola-AK (Russian Orthodox), Dem House Rep Chris Pappas- NH (gay and Greek Orthodox), his fellow NH Rep Maggie Goodlander (GO) and Rep House Rep Nicole Malliotakis (NY, also GO).
With that kind of composition, there's not much incentive for Orthodox leadership to entertain unpopular culture wars.
Churches that emphasize liturgy over preaching tend to be less overtly political.
I agree. I find it hilarious that evangelical leaders whine about less people going to church -- well, they should look in a mirror to see why.
I’d never have guessed NH has two GO members in the House!
As someone who moonlights as an ELCA church organist and is drawn toward liturgical Protestantism (son of a Catholic and a Methodist, so I guess that was a logical place to land!), I too have very mixed feelings.
I fear that the future of "denominational" churches (especially those of a liberal bent) is that they will be clustered in large cities and their moneyed suburbs, and all but die everywhere else.
On a related note, the infamous fundamentalist James Dobson kicked the bucket today. I would place him and the equally reviled Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson and John MacArthur as the main reasons why people are leaving religion entirely or going to a more affirming sect.
Religion and politics should never mix. And our country is all the worse for the unholy Republican and Christian nationalism/Opus Dei alliance that started under Reagan.
Well, all I’ll say re: Dobson is he is in for one “Hell” of a surprise when he arrives at a different destination than he thought
Yeah, if those places exist he is going to the one with the New Jersey hockey players and not the Anaheim baseball players. (NJ has the Devils; Anaheim has the Angels.)
I haven't finished reading the Pew report, but the trend had been for mainline religions to lose adherents while extreme right-wing religions gained adherents. Have evangelical forms of Christianity lost adherents in the U.S. on net?
Since 2007, as a proportion of population, yes. Mainlines have simply shed members faster
Thank God!
What's interesting is that upwards of 75% of people who identified as Muslim, Jewish or Hindu during childhood still identify with it as adults. Compared to 66% of Orthodox Christians or 57% of Roman Catholics.
That makes some sense to me. Those religions have substantial overlap with specific minority groups in the US. For them, religious activity will play double duty as ways to maintain association with people of a similar ethnic background. That's far less applicable to christianity in the US.
This tracks with my experience. Growing up in the Upper Midwest all my friends who were religious/church-going Catholics have since dropped out and shifted from R to D except for my friend who is a priest (ha!). Those who were Muslim or Jewish remain. My protestant friends were mostly like me and quit church in college.
Now living in the South, the local Catholic church appears to be thriving and their community service is excellent. The discord in the UMC is tearing it apart and we refuse to attend the local one anymore even on holidays with inlaws. But the Baptists seem to be staying the course.
Well, with all of those people going non-religious, that probably isn't who they're thanking!
I don't usually say "Thank God", but it seemed appropriate in this context. :-)
Doesn't really matter when a lot of folks are not secularizing into humanism a la northern Europe but MAGA-ism.
What percentage of Trump supporters are non-religious?
Gone too late
That's a really interesting and comprehensive survey and report, as usual.
Chip Roy running for Texas AG.
https://bsky.app/profile/nbcnews.com/post/3lwwa2unx4k2v
This’ll be a good test of how much juice Trump and the Wilks/Dunn machine have to destroy him in a primary
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) has announced his candidacy for state attorney general to succeed Ken Paxton, who is running for the Senate. Although Roy voted to certify the 2020 election, criticized the January 6 insurrection, and called for Paxton's resignation, he generally represents the far-right reaches of MAGA, as demonstrated by his candidacy statement: "Texas is under assault — from open-border politicians, radical leftists and faceless foreign corporations that threaten our sovereignty, safety and our way of life. . . . No more Soros-funded judges and [district attorneys] putting criminals on our streets. No more judge-made mandates that Texas pay for illegals in our public schools. No more communities built on Sharia law." https://www.texastribune.org/2025/08/21/chip-roy-attorney-general-republican-primary-2026-paxton/
Oh good lord.
We should probably start counting how many Republicans are leaving the House on their own free will because they see what’s coming in 2026. Elections in 2018 became a wave narrative early from how many incumbents retired or ran for other offices. Does TDB keep track of something like that?
We’ve gotta be approaching over a dozen already or so no? Nancy Mace, Chip Roy, Don Bacon, Barry Moore, Mike Collins, Buddy Carter, Andy Barr, Ralph Norman, Dusty Johnson, Byron Donalds, Randy Feenstra, John James, John Rose, Andy Biggs. Am I missing anyone?
That compares to just 8 Democrats leaving, 5 of whom are running for Senate while only 4 Republicans out of 14 leaving are running for Senate. The rest are trying to get elected into state government except Bacon who’s retiring.
Only 2 (or maybe 3 if you count KY-06) have resulted in open seats in competitive districts so far, but the rest seem to be taking any state government race available to run in so they’re not in the minority they’ve deserved to be permanently in since 2016. Alas Americans are not educated enough to do that, but hopefully they will be smart enough for at least 2026.
Forget the GCB or party approval, the lawmakers themselves are painting a pretty clear picture of the current political environment. They are the first sign of a wave forming and it’s hard to not see the large number of people leaving as anything, but that.
But if the environment is bad for Republicans nationally, why would a Republican member of Congress give up incumbency to run for a state office (as a Republican)?
Longer terms, more independence, not having to serve in the minority if Democrats win the House, clearer path to higher office (Abbott can't live forever), not based in DC, etc.
Roy is probably betting he’d have a leg up on Patrick in 2030 as a “fresher” face and he may not be wrong
Short of successfully running for POTUS (ugh), I'm not convinced that Abbott will ever voluntarily give up the governorship.
Patrick will be 80 in 2030. His chance to be Governor probably passed when Abbott announced he was running again. The winner of the AG's race will be in a really good spot to succeed Abbott since Patrick won't run.
Those are cogent reasons for running for state office, but not necessarily signs of an impending blue wave. If there is a Democratic wave, it is likely to affect candidates at the state level at least as much as those on the national level.
Well, 2018 was a very good year for Democrats, and we failed to flip a single statewide office in Texas.
Did Democrats flip any Congressional seats in Texas in 2018?
And Paxton and Patrick would both lose before Roy does.
Being in the minority sucks.
You are practically promised a win at the state level if you make it out of the primary in, say, SC (Norman and Mace). Appearances are you'll be in the minority in DC and except for Bacon you may have no relationship with the future majority to get anything done/mediated.
"No more communities built on Sharia law" seems like an easy promise to keep seeing as Texas doesn't have any in the first place.
Problems are easy to claim to have been fixed if they were already nonexistent!
Get some new bogeymen, people! Shari'a panic is so 2010.
Right? Haven't we moved onto "groomers" or "illegal aliens" or some other such nonsense at this point?
There is a planned "Muslim-themed" purpose built community in North Texas that the right wing is currently having a freakout about.
Chip Roy succeeding Ken Paxton?
Oh god….
https://www.axios.com/2025/08/21/trump-redistricting-republican-100-seats-mail-voting
"Trump lays out his redistricting endgame: A 100 seat Republican majority"
Too high on his own supply (and Truth Social feed).
He’s so stupid.
That is virtually impossible.
No I think if he can push inflation north of 4% for no reason Republicans will definitely start winning House seats in Honolulu and Atlanta.
I’m struggling to see how mail voting has anything to do with this when the GOP regularly cleans up in heavy mail states like Utah, Arizona and Florida
Putin gave him the idea and told him that Democrats commit mail in fraud. Yes, it's true.
It's not like Trump hasn't ranted about it before.
Utah is scrapping their all-mail voting after 2028 -- come 2029, voters have to request and provide voter ID information to get VBM ballots. We can thank Project 2025 for that.
Because he's still fixated on the "big massive dumps" (his words) that sealed Biden's swing-state victories in 2020.
The "logic" is that it "explains" his 2020 loss, since Democrats disproportionately used mail ballots in that election. Doesn't matter than evidence doesn't otherwise support claims that mail ballots favor one side or the other. It's all about his own internal narrative around 2020.
Elect a King and he expects to have permanent rule. Stupid people (aka a majority of Americans), this is what you voted for, I hope you’re happy now! Obviously he won’t get 100 seats, that’s literally impossible and he is stupidest fucking idiot in the country, but people wanted him president for whatever justification they used.
The one solace I have is that I get to see Democrats hopefully take back the Senate and the House so finally he can be successfully convicted of his countless crimes (and yes, change the filibuster, or the 2/3rds majority or whatever is necessary to make sure that history knows how awful a president he is/was and forever will be).
A majority did not vote for him.
I thought the vote was 51-49, not 50-48, my bad. You are technically correct because you don’t round up.
49.70 to 48.23.
God, that's even more bonkers than Kevin McCarthy's prediction of 70 seats flipping Republican in 2022.
Daley was Commerce Secretary under Clinton, he was WH Chief of Staff under Obama.
NEW JERSEY poll (Rutgers-Eagleton) 1650 LV from July 31-Aug 11
🔵 Mikie Sherrill 47%
🔴 Jack Ciattarelli 37%
White voters: Ciattarelli 44-38
Black voters: Sherrill 69-4
Hispanic voters: Sherrill 56-22
Asian voters: Sherrill 47-18
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1958482952267989395
Welcome back Biden coalition! Minorities voted Trump for a secure border and lower prices but he gave them tariffs, inflation, mass deportations and blood and soil racism instead.
Loads of comments on x ripping the pollster...probably just a bunch of mental defectives looking for an excuse...is there anything to the ranting that this pollster sux?
Rutgers Eagleton is the leading pollster in New Jersey and has been polling the state for decades. Except for the Christie Whitman races where they first underestimated and then overestimated her, they have a good track record.
thanks, that is what I thought. Those ripping Rutgers Eagleton are looking for something to help them get through the day and sleep better tonight.
Anyone who expects something different from New Jersey in this political climate is probably not politically astute enough to judge a pollster's credibility.
As was obvious to anyone who remembered his first term or listened to what he said. Fucking morons!
You love to see that Hispanic number, especially considering that Harris *lost* Nellie Pou's district.
Hopefully we're seeing LIFO (Last In, First Out) in action.
She's potentially facing a primary challenge from Mayor Sayegh BTW.
CA DEms will redistrict whatever TX does in new bill. https://x.com/ZavalaA/status/1958586712864825636
I wish they'd make the redistricting tougher...
Yea allowing Valadao a fighters chance is ridiculous in light of other Republican states also redistricting.
You can solely blame Lofgren for that one for no good reason (and I hope she’s primaried out for that reason). At least if this amendment passes they can adjust the map for 2028.
As pointed out in the Downballot podcast, Lofgren has been doing media hits backing the redistricting effort, I wonder if it's more Assembly Speaker Rivas keeping the district bluer so he can run.
I’m sorry, but how can you not raise money in this kind of political environment after Republicans passed one of the most unpopular bills of all time? Come on, Martin. Other Dem orgs aren’t having the same struggle either. Ok great, we’re winning special elections, but we kind of need to win future elections too! And that costs money. So disappointed Wikler lost, he would’ve been an incredible chair for us.
POLITICO - Cash on Hand (as of 7/31)
🔴 RNC - $84.3M
🔵 DNC - $13.9M
The DNC has less cash this summer than it did at any point in the last five years, according to POLITICO
The DCCC raked in $7.6 million in July and has $40 million cash on hand. That narrowly outstripped the NRCC, which raised $6.1 million and has $37.6 million in the bank.
The party wide national committee always has more fundraising for the party holding the presidency. That disparity does look a decent bit larger than typical to me but that's a hazy recollection, so I could be wrong. We should expect the RNC to outraise the DNC the entire time we're out of power. Holding the presidency does a lot to enable big ticket national party fundraising.
How will this affect 2026? Should we be concerned?
I’ll note that a fear I have is that Martin will be thrown out, but that instead of Wikler being the replacement, it will be some neoliberal hack who tries to screw over progressives. Notably, a lot of opposition to Martin has been from the business lobby.
Trump says free felon Tina Peters or he’s going to take “harsh measures.”
https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1958549835730100486
More hot air from FDJT's fanny to distract from the Epstein files.
It is depressing how much we shrug off his bonkers statements as hot air, though
I get through each day by reminding myself "he's termed out and he can't change it."
Oh, he'll try to change it. (I have no doubt there will be another attempted autogolpe in 2028 or early 2029, unless his cult is over him and/or he's shuffled off this mortal coil by that point.)
Hegseth is trying but I think he carries so little respect that attempts to convert the military into a loyalist brigade for Trump will fail.
You need a Mattis or Kelly type for that and Hegseth is definitely not a Mattis or a Kelly
You're counting on military personnel to disobey orders? I'd be very cautious about that! By the way, how well behaved have the National Guard been in L.A.?
Fwiw my fiance's brother is stationed at Bragg/Liberty and was required to go stand behind Trump for his weird ass speech and 90% of his (pretty conservative paratrooper friends) thought it was gross and weird. I don't think the rank and file military are hardcore MAGA and wouldn't en masse be down for a coup.
Maybe he can spring George Santos next. (It just doesn't seem fair that the Ravishing Ravache has already spent more time behind bars than Trump likely ever will.)
George Santos and Eric Adams should get to hang around the Capitol and City Hall, respectively, as court jesters.
It's times like this I'm glad Sirhan Sirhan is incarcerated for the rest of his miserable life under state charges and James Earl Ray is long dead.
Sirhan Sirhan was actually granted parole by his parole board in 2021. Thankfully, Gov. Newsom overrode that decision.
Ugh, and he was without remorse. If one of his cell mates (Carman Falzone) in the 1970s told it true, Sirhan was a Gaddafi fanboy who proudly embraced his role in changing history.
It looks like the Minnesota DFL is revoking the Minneapolis DFL's endorsement of Omar Fateh in the Minneapolis mayoral race and putting the Minneapolis DFL organization on a two-year probation.
The revocation is apparently due to all sorts of irregularities at the Minneapolis DFL convention, not due to Fateh's ideology or any scandalous behavior by Fateh.
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/dfl-vacates-fatehs-endorsement-for-minneapolis-mayor-citing-substantial-failures-in-process/
Doggett retires but attacks Greg Casar.
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1958665438457446449
He ought to have kept the rancor private. Thanks for your decades of service, Lloyd.
How much VRA juice (at least in the black seats) is there in challenging these maps (for now)
They're VRA compliant
Biden got 49% in the revised CD 35 and Allred 48%? Plus it’s majority Latino? Doggett has a point.
I agree. If the Biden coalition re-asserts itself then it’s a plain dummymander.
Which would hardly be a surprising outcome of trying to gerrymander a map that was already a pretty egregious gerrymander in the first place! (The media often neglect to point that out.)
I thought only 10 percent of Casar's old district would be in this new CD35? He would hardly be a true incumbent in such a district.
I mean Doggett would have defeated Casar if he ran so people should thank him for his sacrifice.
Why are you sure of that?
In Austin? Doggetts not losing to Casar.
I'm less sure of that.
CA-40:
Who do you think would advance to the general election if they face off against each other in the top two primary?
Ken Calvert or Young Kim?
Probably Young Kim
I concur.
Also, Kim is one of the least controversial House Republicans and has projects a more moderate image than Calvert, which is appealing to independents.
How did she get that reputation?
I took out “reputation” and mentioned “projects more of a moderate image” instead to better explain my argument.
Because of taking more of a middle of the road approach to issues like the Defund the Police issue instead of being an ideologue like Ken Calvert.
Not arguing she’s got a great track record on issues in general but in my observation, Young Kim hasn’t got the issues that Ken Calvert does. There’s certainly plenty to scrutinize Kim for as far as her record is concerned but she’s also gotten re-elected by double digits. Calvert has not in his last two elections.
Kim was against Defunding the Police but supported efforts to reform the police so they don’t do commit excessive police brutality. Would Calvert even try this while in office? No he wouldn’t.
Kim btw has been criticized by Democrats, at least by the DCCC, as helping support the House GOP in defunding the FBI. Again, she’s not great but she’s also no Michelle Steele either.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/06/17/change-is-necessary-defunding-the-police-is-not-young-kim/?noamp=mobile
https://dccc.org/young-kims-republican-national-convention-day-2-defunding-law-enforcement-again/
I also took a closer look:
Young Kim worked with Abigail Spanberger on law enforcement legislation as far as police staffing and such.
Calvert should care about suspects' rights, considering that he was one...
True. Calvert’s got quite the history!
Kim, and it probably would not be real close.