Morning Digest: Why Tennessee Democrats think they can pull a special election upset

One key reason: A GOP gerrymander that might've gotten a bit too greedy

The four Democrats competing in the special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District (from left): Bo Mitchell, Vincent Dixie, Aftyn Behn, and Darden Copeland (credit: Bo Mitchell Facebook)

Leading Off

TN-07

Democrats in Middle Tennessee are unusually pumped about their chances in the Dec. 2 special election for the state's conservative 7th Congressional District—and a Republican gerrymander that may have been too greedy is a key reason.

One sign of this enthusiasm can be found in the field of candidates who filed to run as of Tuesday's deadline. A large number of ambitious Republicans have piled into the race to succeed Republican Mark Green, who resigned last month to enter the private sector, but so have three sitting Democratic lawmakers and a local businessman.

None have to give up their seats to participate in the special election, but it's notable that so many established pols from the minority party are eager to take a shot at a difficult target.

Donald Trump carried Green's old constituency 60-38 last year, according to calculations by The Downballot, while Green won his fourth and final term by an identical margin—even after his estranged wife accused him of infidelity not long before Election Day.

So why is the 7th District more compelling for Democrats than you might expect? The answer stems from a decision by Republicans in 2022 to carve up the city of Nashville—which had long been contained in a single, solidly blue district—between three red seats.

Republicans such as state House Speaker Cameron Sexton claimed at the time that Nashville, which has been consolidated with the rest of Davidson County since the 1960s, would benefit from having three congressmen.

"Davidson will gain more representation," Sexton said. "It never hurts to have more people in Washington fighting for you."

Democratic politicians and voting rights advocates, though, called that out as a pretense by Republicans who wanted to flip the 5th District, which the GOP had last won in 1872, while protecting their hold on the neighboring 6th and 7th Districts. And Republicans in the Volunteer State got exactly what they wanted.

Just one day after the GOP-dominated legislature passed its new gerrymander, veteran Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper announced he would not seek reelection in the 5th. That fall, Republican Andy Ogles easily flipped the seat. Green, meanwhile, had no trouble winning reelection in the 7th, nor did fellow GOP Rep. John Rose in the 6th.

The trio likewise cruised to victory even as both Ogles and Green were beset by separate scandals. When Green announced in June that he would soon resign from Congress to take part in a new business—a venture he still has yet to fully explain—it initially looked like the GOP would once again keep the 7th with little effort.

Democrats, though, quickly identified an opportunity to pull off a huge upset in December, thanks in part to the GOP's decision to graft part of Nashville onto what had been a heavily rural constituency.

The 7th now includes a quarter of Tennessee's capital city, including downtown Nashville and Vanderbilt University. That addition made Green's constituency notably less conservative than it had been: While Trump carried the previous incarnation of the 7th 67-31 in 2020, he would have prevailed by a smaller 56-41 spread that year under the new lines.

That slice of Nashville will offer the eventual Democratic nominee a critical base of support in what's still a tough seat. Democrats are also hoping that, in a year when furious liberals are showing up in disproportionate numbers in special elections across the country, voters in Music City will be especially motivated to cast ballots in a contest that will take place just a week after Thanksgiving.

Indeed, as the National Journal wrote in June, the Democrats' strong showing in special elections is another reason why they think they have an opening in Middle Tennessee.

Overall, according to a tally maintained by The Downballot, Democrats are overperforming last year's presidential race by an average of 16 points across 33 special congressional and legislative elections so far in 2025.

A comparable showing in the 7th wouldn't be quite enough to overcome Trump's 22-point margin of victory last year, but Democrats are also betting that the backlash against his administration, including his "Big Beautiful Bill," will intensify as the year continues.

But while a strong performance in Nashville is necessary to put Green's old seat into play, it's not sufficient.

The eventual nominee also needs to do well in the few other areas with sizable pockets of Democratic voters, such as the city of Clarksville, which has a sizable Black population (but which was not actually the subject of the famous Monkees song). And while Democrats don't need to win the rural and suburban parts of the 7th, they need to prevent Republicans from racking up the landslide numbers they're accustomed to.

All four Democratic candidates believe that opposition to Trump's draconian mega-budget gives them an opening to do so.

The three state representatives on the ballot—Aftyn Behn, Bo Mitchell, and Vincent Dixie—have each emphasized the disastrous impact the bill could have across the district. Businessman Darden Copeland, likewise, says the budget is one reason he decided to run for Congress.

The foursome will face off in an Oct. 7 primary. Tennessee, unlike many other Southern states, does not require runoffs in congressional primaries, so whoever wins a plurality will advance to the general election two months later.

Republican primary voters have an even larger field of 11 contenders to sort through, and just like on the Democratic side, it's too early to identify a frontrunner.

Green is supporting former state Department of General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps, who resigned from Gov. Bill Lee's cabinet to run. Standing in Van Epps' way are another trio of state representatives—Jody Barrett, Gino Bulso, and Lee Reeves—as well as Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight.

Six other Republicans are also running, including real estate developer Stewart Parks, who served a five-month prison sentence for his role in the Jan. 6 riot but received a pardon from Trump. None of the members of this larger cohort has attracted much attention yet, though one or more may gain traction with almost two months to go before the primary.

While Democrats are largely focusing on their opposition to Trump's budget bill, Republicans are already turning on one another.

Barrett has earned some particularly dangerous enemies. The lawmaker, who unsuccessfully opposed Lee's private school voucher bill this year, has drawn the ire of the radical anti-tax Club for Growth.

David McIntosh, who leads the deep-pocketed Club, took to social media to attack Barrett's vote against the school vouchers bill and highlight the fact that he once called Trump "a liberal douchebag" during the 2016 presidential primaries.

Barrett, like the Club, supported Ted Cruz during that campaign while opposing Trump, but McIntosh doesn't care that they were once on the same side.

"He's the opposite of what we need in TN-07," McIntosh posted. "Kick this snake to the curb."

Four independents are also in the mix, including Army veteran Jon Thorp, who initially announced in June that he would run as a Republican. None of these contenders is likely to have an opening, but their presence could end up having an impact if the December contest is close.

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The Downballot Podcast

How to stay on top of the redistricting wars

Drowning in a sea of redistricting news? On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, we introduce our brand-new guide to the latest developments in every state—a resource worth bookmarking because we're continually updating it. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard run through some of the top stories, including the status of the Democratic walkout in Texas, and how Democrats might fight back at the ballot box against new GOP gerrymanders in Ohio and Missouri by deploying an unusual tool.

We also sit down with state Rep. Billie Butler, the newest member of the New Hampshire legislature. Butler, a musician and artist, tells us all about her recent special election win, a race that saw her face down appalling anti-trans attacks from Republicans to prevail by double digits. But what's actually top of mind for her constituents? The high cost of living, especially housing—a pressing issue she's eager to tackle at the state capitol.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Redistricting Roundup

IL Redistricting

Democrats in Illinois do not appear ready to enter the mid-decade redistricting fray with a new map of their own.

"We have no[t] had any new conversations about new congressional maps in the House," a spokesperson for state House Speaker Chris Welch told WBEZ on Wednesday.

Illinois is the rare blue state where Democrats face few legal obstacles when it comes to gerrymandering, but their practical hurdles are considerable.

Four years ago, Democrats drew an aggressive map that gave them 14 seats in the House versus just three for Republicans, making it difficult to squeeze out another simply due to geography. In addition, candidates have already begun collecting signatures to make the March primary ballot—a process they'd likely have to start over if the map were to change.

NV Redistricting

Activists in Nevada say they will once again attempt to qualify a ballot initiative that would create an independent redistricting commission, even as many one-time supporters of similar commissions elsewhere have turned against them in the face of new Republican gerrymanders.

Organizers sought to place a pair of similar proposals on the ballot last year, but the state Supreme Court rejected them because they failed to specify how a new redistricting commission would be funded.

Voter-initiated amendments must win during two consecutive general elections—a rule that's unique to Nevada—so this plan would need to be approved at the ballot box in both 2026 and 2028.

SC Redistricting

Even though a top Republican leader in the South Carolina legislature recently said that the odds the state would redraw its congressional map were "less than zero," a member of the state's Freedom Caucus says he'll introduce a proposal to eliminate the majority-Black 6th District in December.

TX Redistricting

Following conflicting reports on Tuesday about whether they were ending their walkout, Texas House Democrats said the following day that they were not returning home—at least, not yet.

"What happens next is entirely up to Greg Abbott," the Democrats said in a statement. "After deliberation among our caucus, we have reached a consensus: Texas House Democrats refuse to give him a quorum to pass his racist maps that silence more than 2 million Black and Latino Texans."

However, they added an important caveat, saying that "in keeping with our original promise to Texans, the First Called Special Session will never make quorum again, defeating Abbott's first attempt at passing his racial gerrymander."

That 30-day special session of the legislature will come to a close on Wednesday, but it could end earlier. State House Speaker Dustin Burrows said this week that if Democrats don't return home by Friday, he'll adjourn the session that day. Abbott could then immediately call a new one, as he's promised to do. In such a scenario, it's not clear how much longer House Democrats might continue their walkout.

An Illinois judge on Wednesday also rejected Attorney General Ken Paxton's lawsuit to enforce civil arrest warrants that were issued in Texas for the absentee lawmakers. The ruling said that it was not up to the court to decide if "foreign legislators" had failed to carry out their duties in their own state. Paxton has not yet said if he'd appeal.

Senate

KY-Sen

Republican Rep. Andy Barr's allies are spending $1.2 million on an ad campaign arguing that wealthy businessman Nate Morris is not the pro-Donald Trump and anti-Mitch McConnell conservative he wants MAGAworld to think he is.

"Morris donated thousands to Nikki Haley," says the narrator for the super PAC aiding Barr, Keep America Great. "And as CEO, Morris was so woke he literally signed a pledge promoting DEI." The commercial goes on to play footage of Morris saying he "made contributions to Mitch McConnell."

The most important audience for this ad, though, may be someone who can't even cast a ballot in next May's GOP primary for the Senate seat that McConnell is finally giving up. There's increasing speculation that Morris, who is an old friend of JD Vance and announced his campaign on Donald Trump Jr.'s podcast, is on track to get the senior Trump's all-important endorsement.

That's not a scenario that Barr or former Attorney General Daniel Cameron wants to see play out, so they're both hoping to weaken Morris before it can happen.

NOTUS' Reese Gorman reported last week that supporters of Barr and Cameron have discussed forming a joint super PAC with the sole purpose of taking down their mutual enemy. Both sides, though, distanced themselves from what Cameron's campaign described as "a spectacularly stupid idea."

Morris, for his part, is continuing to use his massive wealth to keep airing ads labeling his two intraparty rivals as "Mitch's boys."

LA-Sen

A recent story from the Shreveport Times identifies state Rep. Julie Emerson as one of two Louisiana Republicans "thought to be considering" challenging Sen. Bill Cassidy in next year's primary. (The other, Rep. Julia Letlow, we've written about previously.) Emerson, though, does not appear to have said anything about such an undertaking.

SC-Sen

Wealthy businessman Mark Lynch has launched a new commercial using old footage of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham that South Carolina's senior senator would rather remain in the deep archives.

In a clip that kicks off the spot, Graham is shown saying, "Tell Donald Trump to go to hell." In another, he says, "If you can't admire Joe Biden, you got a problem. What's not to like?"

Lynch, who is challenging Graham for renomination, says his ad buy is "backed by significant six figure ad spends."

Attorney Paul Dans, who was the mastermind of Project 2025, is also campaigning against Graham in next year's primary, but he has yet to hit the airwaves in a significant way.

Graham, who has Trump's endorsement, remains as determined as ever to remind everyone how far he's come since he opposed the GOP's master in the 2016 presidential primary: The senator used a Wednesday event to show off a red "Trump 2028" cap.

Governors

VA-Gov, VA-LG, VA-AG

Democrat Abigail Spanberger on Wednesday received the backing of the Virginia Police Benevolent Association, an organization that's typically endorsed Republicans over the last few years.

The Washington Post's Gregory Schneider notes that the PBA backed Spanberger's unsuccessful opponent when she sought reelection to the House in 2020. The following year, it supported Republican Glenn Youngkin's victorious campaign for governor.

In 2021, the group also favored now-Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who happens to be Spanberger's opponent in this fall's race to replace the termed-out Youngkin.

The PBA, though, stuck with its usual partisan leanings by endorsing Republican John Reid's bid to replace Earle-Sears as lieutenant governor. It also backed Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares' reelection campaign.

WI-Gov

Democratic state Sen. Kelda Roys tells Civic Media she's "pretty likely to run for governor in 2026" but doesn't plan to announce anything until after Labor Day. Roys lost the 2018 primary for this post to Tony Evers, who is not seeking a third term next year.

WY-Gov

State Sen. Eric Barlow became the first prominent Republican to join what may or may not be an open-seat race for governor of Wyoming with an announcement on Tuesday.

Barlow, who previously served as speaker of the state House, is an ardent conservative who backed the state's near-total abortion ban in 2023. However, he's still not ideologically pure enough for this dark red state's ascendant far-right faction.

Morning Digest: Congresswoman could make Wyoming a Freedom Caucus 'case study'

"[F]or those who know him, he's a liberal Republican who loves big government," state Freedom Caucus leader Rachel Rodriguez-Williams groused in a statement to WyoFile. "For those who begin to research him, his voting record, and his tenure in the Legislature, they'll see he is a clone of Governor [Mark] Gordon."

Secretary of State Chuck Gray, a potential gubernatorial candidate who is a Freedom Caucus ally, likewise told Cowboy State Daily, "Barlow has always been an ambitious insider, so it's not surprising he's announcing so early to try to unite the insiders and the liberal media around his campaign."

Gray, though, has said he'd only run for governor himself if Rep. Harriet Hageman decides not to. Gordon, for his part, is keeping everyone guessing about whether or not he'll wage a legal challenge against the state law that currently prevents him from seeking a third term.

House

AZ-06

Immigration attorney Mo Goldman announced Tuesday that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary and endorsing Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza, who is now the only notable Democrat challenging GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani.

Mendoza is seeking to flip the 6th District, a swing seat that includes part of Tucson and other communities in southeastern Arizona. Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried the 6th 49.8 to 49.1 last year, while Joe Biden won it by an even tighter 49.3 to 49.2 spread.

FL-06

Will Furry, who serves as chair of the Flagler County School Board, announced this week that he would challenge Rep. Randy Fine in next year's Republican primary for Florida's conservative 6th District.

Furry, who entered the race less than two weeks after Palm Coast City Councilor Charles Gambaro launched his own primary campaign, also highlighted Fine's weak ties to his constituency.

"I've answered the call from the people of District 6 who want a representative that reflects their priorities," Furry said in a statement, "not someone who parachuted in and doesn't know our community."

IN-04

Republican Rep. Jim Baird sounds ready to seek a fifth term now that state Rep. Craig Haggard is opposing him for renomination in Indiana's 4th District, a challenge Baird is not at all happy about.

"Three years ago, my opponent was quoted by donors, stating I had only 18 months to live—a disgraceful lie," the 80-year-old congressman said in a press release about a claim he alone seems to be the source for. "Now he says I'm retiring. What will he say next?"

Haggard told the Indianapolis Star earlier this week that he believed his opponent could wind up being either the congressman or his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, but he said he didn't know which one he'd face. The challenger's comments came after the congressman's government office sent out a mailer paid for by taxpayers that featured a photo of father and son together.

The elder Baird, though, signaled that he'd be the one on the ballot.

"As a two-time Purple Heart recipient and Vietnam veteran, I know how to stay focused under fire. I will not be distracted by political games," the incumbent said. "My mission remains serving the people of the 4th District and earning their support in 2026."

Haggard, who is also a veteran, found himself in the news after his wife was targeted by a deepfake video ostensibly showing her dancing topless. A prosecutor announced an investigation last week into the phony video, which two staffers for Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith played while at work, according to 24sightNews.

Last week, Gov. Mike Braun told reporters that "each state office is … going to have to do its own accountability," a less-than-vigorous response that Haggard did not appreciate.

"I didn't like the response from [the] governor's office saying, 'Not our problem,' because I think that's a cop-out and sort of disgusting," Haggard told the Indiana Capital Chronicle.

The 4th District, which includes the western Indianapolis suburbs and part of west-central Indiana, is safely Republican turf. The constituency could take on a new shape if the Trump administration successfully pressures the legislature to pass a new gerrymander to flip the Democratic-held 1st District next door, though Haggard joined several of his GOP colleagues in opposing the idea.

"I have been hearing from constituents and I do not believe at this time there is an appetite for redistricting in our communities," Haggard told the Chronicle.

MI-11

State Sen. Jeremy Moss received an endorsement on Wednesday from Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, a fellow Michigan Democrat who represents the neighboring 8th District, for his campaign for the open and safely blue 11th District.

In May, Moss announced his campaign to succeed Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who is running for the Senate, and no other notable Democrats have joined him in the ensuing three months. One person who was initially mentioned as a possible candidate, state Sen. Rosemary Bayer, has instead backed Moss.

MN-02

Democratic state Rep. Kaela Berg not only remains interested in seeking Minnesota open 2nd District, Blois Olson reports in the Daily Agenda, but is "leaning toward" getting in.

This is the first news we've heard about Berg potentially running for this suburban Twin Cities seat since early April, when she didn't rule out a campaign to succeed Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Both parties have contested primaries to replace Craig, who is running for the Senate, in a constituency that Kamala Harris won 52-46.

NY-17

Air Force veteran John Cappello just became the eighth Democrat to enter the race to take on GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in New York's 17th District.

Lawler, whose dreams of running for governor ended last month when Donald Trump pressured him to stay put, is one of just three Republicans who represent a House seat that Kamala Harris carried last year.

Morning Digest: Trump just got two congressmen to give up their dreams of higher office

TX-35, TX-37

Democratic Rep. Greg Casar will not run for the revamped 35th District if the GOP passes its proposed new gerrymander, his chief of staff said in an email obtained by Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick.

Casar all but announced earlier this week he'd run for the proposed 37th District, a safely Democratic constituency around Austin that longtime Rep. Lloyd Doggett is also campaigning for.

Morning Digest: Texas GOP gerrymander may spark generational clash

Doggett called for Casar to run for the 35th, a conservative constituency that has little in common with Casar's current district beyond sharing a number. Casar's chief of staff said that Doggett did not consult his colleague before publicly urging him to pursue the new seat.

Legislatures

MI State Senate

A Michigan judge has expedited a lawsuit that seeks to compel Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to schedule a special election for the 35th Senate District, a swing seat that has been vacant since January. A court hearing, should it be necessary, is set for Sept. 12.

Other Races

GA-LG

State Rep. David Clark and state Sen. Blake Tillery both announced this week they would seek the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor of Georgia, a powerful post that GOP incumbent Burt Jones is giving up to run for governor.

Clark, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, spent his early years in the legislature as a far-right agitator, though the paper says he's recently "adopted a somewhat lower-key persona."

Tillery, by contrast, is an establishment figure who spent years as chair of the influential Senate Appropriations Committee, though he's also joined much of his party in embracing transphobia. The AJC notes that a bill he authored to bar state insurance plans from paying for transgender healthcare passed the Senate this year, though it died in the House.

The newcomers join state Sens. Steve Gooch and John F. Kennedy—yes, he goes by that name—in next year's GOP primary. State Sen. Josh McLaurin is the only Democrat seeking an office his party last won in 2002.