Morning Digest: In stunning turnaround, Democrat takes lead in North Carolina Supreme Court race

The GOP had a five-figure edge on election night. Now we're headed to a recount.

North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs (D) holds a 625-vote lead going into the recount (credit: Allison Riggs campaign)

Leading Off

NC Supreme Court

A critical race for North Carolina's Supreme Court is headed to a recount after late-counted votes gave Democratic incumbent Allison Riggs the slimmest of leads over her Republican opponent, Jefferson Griffin.

The result is a dramatic turnaround from election night, when Riggs trailed by approximately 10,000 votes. But after local election officials adjudicated provisional ballots, which are cast by voters whose registration status is in question, and added valid votes to their tallies, Riggs took a 625-vote lead.

With more than 5.5 million ballots cast statewide, that difference amounts to a margin of 0.01%—well within the 1% gap that allows candidates to seek a recount under state law. Griffin made such a request just ahead of Tuesday's deadline to do so.

Now all 100 counties will undertake a machine recount of all ballots, starting today. According to a memo from the state Board of Elections, the process "should be completed" by next Wednesday, Nov. 27.

Yet despite the extremely tight margin, the review is unlikely to change the outcome. According to a recent analysis from FairVote, only three statewide races that have gone to a recount this century have seen a reversal, and all were closer on a raw-vote basis than the Riggs-Griffin matchup. Across 36 total statewide recounts, the median shift was just 253 votes.

One of those was also for a seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court. Following the 2020 elections, Democrat Cheri Beasley sought a recount after initial results showed her narrowly behind Republican Paul Newby. Ultimately, though, the recount shaved just 15 votes off Newby's lead, giving him a 401-vote edge.

The small shift allowed Beasley to request a further manual (or "hand-to-eye") recount in a sample of 3% of precincts in each county, but that additional review did not change the outcome.

Even after a recount, though, further litigation is possible, and any final resolution would likely fall to the very body that Riggs and Griffin are running for. Republicans hold a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court and have not hesitated to use their authority to boost the GOP in openly partisan ways.

Should Riggs nonetheless retain her lead, Democrats will remain in the minority on the court. However, a victory for the incumbent would greatly improve Democrats' chances of regaining a majority in 2028, when three Republican seats will be up.

Like we promised, we’re gonna keep running down every last overtime race until the very last votes are counted. If you’re the sort of person who wants to know all the results—not just those you hear about on election night—please consider supporting our work.

Senate

NE-Sen, NE-02

Independent Dan Osborn told NBC this week that he's considering challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in 2026, though that's not the only office in Nebraska he might be interested in.

In a separate interview, HuffPost's Daniel Marans asked Osborn if he might take on Republican Rep. Don Bacon in the Omaha-based 2nd District, and he did not dismiss the idea. Osborn, Marans writes, also noted that Omaha will hold its race for mayor next year, while the governorship will be on the ballot in 2026.

"The first thing I’ve got to do is go back to work tomorrow and start paying my bills, but I’m leaving everything on the table as an option," said Osborn, who lost a bid against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer by a 54-46 margin earlier this month.

Ricketts, for his part, just defeated Democrat Preston Love 63-37 in the special election for the final two years of former Sen. Ben Sasse's term. Ricketts, who previously served as governor, will be up for a full six-year term in a state that Donald Trump carried 60-39.

Governors

AZ-Gov

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes acknowledged on Wednesday that he's considering a challenge to Gov. Katie Hobbs in the 2026 Democratic primary, comments that came one day after Politico's Megan Messerly first reported he was interested in taking on the governor.

"We'll be seriously considering every option, but right now, I'm running for reelection," Fontes told the Arizona Republic's Stacey Barchenger. "I don't have any reason to be launching a gubernatorial campaign at this time."

Messerly writes that Fontes is listening to appeals from unnamed Democrats who fear that Hobbs cannot win reelection in a state Donald Trump just carried 52-47. These detractors pointed to this year's election results, which saw Republicans make gains in both the state House and Senate despite the governor's attempts to flip at least one chamber. 

Messerly also reports that "some Latino leaders are particularly worried about the approach she's taking on the border, as she takes a centrist posture in the run-up to her reelection campaign."

Hobbs' backers, though, argue that Arizona Democrats suffered from the same tough national political climate that hurt their counterparts in other states. They also told Messerly that they were skeptical that Fontes could raise the type of money necessary to wrest the nomination from the incumbent.

In addition, a contested battle ahead of Arizona's late-in-the-cycle primary would make it harder for the victor to turn around and win the general election just months later. And should Fontes proceed with a challenge, Democrats would have to defend the secretary of state's office in an open-seat race rather than have the advantage of incumbency.

Hobbs, though, has the stronger track record when it comes to recent primaries. She defeated her nearest rival for the Democratic nomination in 2022 in a 72-23 landslide while Fontes won his primary that year by a much tighter 53-47 spread.

One local Democratic operative was particularly blunt. Stacy Pearson, who has often commented favorably about Hobbs but does not work for her, told State Affairs's Reagan Priest that the Fontes trial balloon was "profile-puffing bullshit from people who are too cowardly to be named." Priest also noted that Hobbs has a $3 million war chest while Fontes has just $200,000 banked.

Whether or not she draws an intra-party challenge, though, Hobbs is certain to face intense opposition from Republicans, several of whom are already weighing bids. One possible contender is businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents who told Barchenger in August that she was "keeping my options open" about a second run for governor.

Robson sought the office in 2022 with the support of the state's termed-out governor, Doug Ducey. A 48-43 plurality of primary voters, though, made the fateful decision to listen to Trump and instead nominated Kari Lake, a former local TV anchor who had a reputation for spreading far-right conspiracy theories. Hobbs narrowly prevailed that fall, and Lake went on to lose a close Senate race to Democrat Ruben Gallego earlier this month.

Businessman Tom Hatten, who is the founder of the Mountainside Fitness chain of gyms, also informed Barchenger in September that he's thinking about taking on Hobbs. Hatten attracted attention in 2020 when he unsuccessfully challenged Ducey's pandemic safety measures that closed gyms and other businesses. He stepped down as CEO the next year and mulled a 2022 bid for Ducey's job, though he ultimately did not run.

Barchenger also lists Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who is termed out of her current job, as a potential candidate. Yee, who is the first Asian American to hold statewide office in Arizona, did not respond to Barchenger's inquiries about her interest in a second try after her first attempt four years ago ended in failure.

Yee had looked like a strong candidate when she launched her campaign to replace Ducey, but she struggled to raise money in the primary. She ultimately dropped out early in 2022 and secured a second term as treasurer 56-44, which made her the only statewide candidate from either party to win by double digits that year.

Finally, columnist Laurie Roberts writes in the Republic that unnamed people are talking up state Sen. Jake Hoffman as a potential candidate for governor. Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes indicted Hoffman and 10 other fake electors in April for allegedly aiding Trump's unsuccessful 2020 effort to overturn his defeat in the state. Days later, the state GOP picked Hoffman to serve on the Republican National Committee, and he easily won reelection to the legislature this month.

OH-Gov

Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost released a video on Tuesday teasing an announcement for his next campaign sometime in the first quarter of the new year, though he isn't keeping anyone in suspense about what post he plans to seek. Yost, a Republican, is shown walking through the state capitol to the governor's office before he turns and faintly smiles for the camera.

Buckeye State political watchers have long anticipated a competitive primary between Yost and Lt. Gov. Jon Husted to succeed termed-out Gov. Mike DeWine. The outgoing incumbent has made it clear he wants his understudy to replace him, telling reporters earlier this month that Husted "will be a great governor."

While Husted, a former secretary of state, hasn't announced a bid either, he already had $5 million stockpiled in July for what would be a second campaign for the governorship. He originally sought the 2018 nomination to succeed another termed-out Republican, John Kasich, but dropped out well before the primary and became DeWine's running mate. Their ticket went on to secure two terms in office.

Yost and Husted, though, may not have the primary to themselves. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who waged a longshot campaign for president earlier this year, expressed interest in running for governor in late September. Ramaswamy has since signed on to co-chair the incoming Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency along with Elon Musk, though there's no reason it would preclude him from seeking DeWine's job.

Governors races always loom large in the midterms, with 38 states holding elections over the next two years. If you love following them in detail, please consider upgrading to paid subscription to The Downballot if you haven’t yet.

House

FL-01

State Rep. Michelle Salzman announced Tuesday that she would run in the upcoming special election to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz, but the field for this Pensacola-based seat may be about to grow again. On the same day, state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis revealed that he's also "strongly considering" running for the dark red 1st District.

Salzman, who served with the Army in Kosovo and later became head of Escambia County's council of parent-teacher associations, challenged state Rep. Mike Hill in the GOP primary in 2020. During that campaign, she told WUWF that she'd worked as an exotic dancer two decades before during a difficult time in her life, saying, "The whole purpose of putting that story out there, was so that it would be my story and not Mike Hill’s story."

Salzman went on to defeat Hill 52-48 after arguing that he'd failed to accomplish much in office, and she had no trouble in the general election. Hill sought a rematch two years later, but Salzman prevailed 65-35.

As a member of the state House, Salzman attracted national attention in 2023 when she heckled Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon as she introduced a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

"We are at 10,000 dead Palestinians. How many will be enough?" asked Nixon, to which Salzman responded, "All of them." Salzman later tweeted, "My comments were unapologetically towards the Hamas regime – I NEVER said Palestine."

Patronis, meanwhile, became state CFO in 2017 when then-Gov. Rick Scott appointed him to fill a vacancy. He went on to win two full terms for an unusual post that has many of the duties that would belong to a treasurer or comptroller in other states and also functions as Florida's fire marshal.

Patronis, who is termed out in 2026, expressed interest earlier this year in running to replace Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also can't seek reelection. The CFO, though, would likely need to compete against several other GOP heavy hitters, so he may see the race to replace Gaetz as a better opportunity to keep his career going.

Legislatures

VA State House

Del. Kannan Srinivasan resigned from the Virginia House on Monday shortly after winning the Democratic nod for a Jan. 7 special election for the state Senate, a move that allowed Speaker Don Scott to quickly schedule the contest to succeed him for that same day. Democrats, as we detailed in our last Morning Digest, need to win both races to maintain their slender majorities in each chamber.

Mayors & County Leaders

King County, WA Executive

King County Assessor John Wilson announced this week that he would join next year's officially nonpartisan race to succeed retiring Executive Dow Constantine, a fellow Democrat, as leader of Washington's most populous county. 

Wilson launched his campaign by arguing that the criminal justice system was failing in the Seattle area, saying the county needs "more cops on the streets" as well as more prosecutors, public defenders, and mental health services.

Wilson won his current post in 2015 by unseating incumbent Lloyd Hara 58-42, a victory that made him one of just three countywide elected officials. (The third is the county elections director, a job held by Julie Wise.) Wilson went on to win reelection in 2019 and 2023 without opposition.

One other local Democrat, County Councilmember Claudia Balducci, launched a bid for Constantine's post last week, and a third could join in before long. County Councilmember Girmay Zahilay tells KUOW he'll reveal what he's doing after Thanksgiving.