Morning Digest: Tony Evers announces he won't run for a third term

The move by Wisconsin's governor opens the door for a new generation of Democrats

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D), during his final campaign in 2022 (credit: Tony Evers Facebook)

Leading Off

WI-Gov

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers announced Thursday that he would not seek a third term, a move that sets off an open-seat race in the perennial swing state of Wisconsin.

Evers, who at 73 is the second-oldest governor in state history, kept both parties guessing about his plans ever since winning reelection in 2022. But while the governor once joked that people could call him "Three-Term Tony," his decision to step aside clears the way for a new generation of Democrats to step forward.

And there's no shortage of Badger State Democrats who could succeed him.

Attorney General Josh Kaul, who won both his campaigns for statewide office in 2018 and 2022 alongside Evers, has also long been talked about as a future candidate for governor.

Kaul does not appear to have publicly expressed interest, but political observers are watching him closely. Wisconsin Public Radio writes he's "widely expected to be among the top contenders," while the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel identifies him as "the likely Democratic frontrunner" if he gets in.

Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who was Evers' running mate in 2022, has hinted she's looking at the state's job as well. She said in a statement, "There's still work to do to make sure every family in Wisconsin has a fair shot at a better life — and I'm ready to roll up my sleeves and get to work."

Both Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson, meanwhile, have expressed interest, though it's unlikely they'd both run. Jason Calvi of Fox 6 notes that Crowley and Johnson are friends who have an overlapping geographic base of support: Crowley's Milwaukee County includes the eponymous city, as well as many of its suburbs.

Calvi and the Journal Sentinel both say Crowley is the more likely of the two to jump in. Johnson, though, told the paper, "I don't make decisions based off of what somebody else decides to do. I would imagine that David doesn't do the same thing." The mayor, who predicted he'd seek the governor's office "someday," added that he and Crowley would speak and "figure it out."

State Sen. Kelda Roys, who lost the 2018 primary to Evers, also told the Journal Sentinel she's "strongly considering" another bid for governor. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, meanwhile, let WPR know he's interested, too. Barnes, who was Evers' running mate in 2018, lost a tight Senate race to Republican incumbent Ron Johnson in 2022.

There's also speculation surrounding other Democrats. Dan Shafer, whose site The Recombobulation Area closely tracks Wisconsin politics, told The Downballot earlier this month that Ben Wikler, who recently stepped down as chair of the state Democratic Party, could run. Shafer, though, added that there's also speculation that Wikler might instead challenge Johnson in 2028.

WPR and the Journal Sentinel additionally mention a trio of Democrats who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in 2022: Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, state Sen. Chris Larson, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. All three dropped out before the primary and endorsed Barnes.

Whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee could, should they become governor, also see their party in control of one or both chambers of the legislature—something that Evers never enjoyed for a single day of his tenure.

An aggressive gerrymander allowed Republicans to maintain firm control of both the state Senate and Assembly in 2018, even as Evers, who was the state superintendent of public instruction, narrowly unseated GOP Gov. Scott Walker in an upset. The defeated Walker then used his final weeks in office to sign lame-duck laws that transferred many of the new governor's powers to the Republican-dominated legislature.

GOP lawmakers remained in power during the entirety of Evers' two terms and did everything they could to undermine and strip his powers at every turn. While the governor found ways to fight back—he once used his extensive partial veto power to extend school funding 400 years longer than Republicans had wanted—there was only so much he could accomplish with a hostile legislature.

Republicans, though, are now in danger of losing control of the legislature for the first time in over a decade.

A few months after Evers was first sworn in, conservatives won a 5-2 advantage on the state Supreme Court, but progressives whittled that edge away until they managed to win a majority in 2023.

Later that same year, the new-look court struck down the state's legislative maps, which the GOP had gerrymandered to give themselves near-supermajority status. That pushed Republicans to grudgingly agree to new lines that much more closely reflected Wisconsin's swingy nature. As a result, Democrats went on to make big gains in both chambers last year, and they're hoping to complete the task in 2026.

Republicans hold a tenuous 18-15 edge in the Senate, where half the members are up every cycle, so Democrats need to net just two seats. The GOP is also in danger of losing its 54-45 advantage in the lower chamber, where all 99 representatives will be up for new two-year terms.

If Democrats hold Evers' office and flip the legislature, they'd regain the "trifecta" they lost in 2010 as the red wave propelled Walker and his allies to victory. Republicans, though, will work just as hard to reclaim the governorship and defend their legislative majorities, which would restore the trifecta that Evers cost them in 2018.

Two Republicans were already running for governor before they knew whether or not they'd face Evers, Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and wealthy businessman Bill Berrien. They could, however, have company before long.

Rep. Tom Tiffany has spent the last several months talking about joining the race and recently said he'd decide after this month. Two other rich businessmen who've lost close statewide races have also reportedly expressed interest in the last month: Tim Michels, who was Evers' 2022 opponent, and Eric Hovde, who fell just short against Sen. Tammy Baldwin last year.

Walker, meanwhile, said back in April that he wouldn't try to regain his old job, but he's either now reconsidering—or just taking advantage of a numerical coincidence to troll everyone.

Walker, who was the 45th governor of the state, responded to his successor's retirement announcement by tweeting out a photo of a red MAGA cap displaying the numbers "45-47." Walker accompanied those pictures with "Interesting…" and a winking face, though he later edited out the suggestive emoji.

But Ron Johnson, who will be up for reelection to the Senate three years from now, quickly told Politico he wouldn't run for governor.

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Dems are about to land their biggest Senate recruit

Senate

FL-Sen

Democrat Jennifer Jenkins, a former member of the Brevard County school board, tells the Florida Phoenix that she's considering a bid to take on Republican Sen. Ashley Moody next year. Jenkins, who also founded a group that seeks to combat conservative influence over education policy, added that she doesn't have a deadline for making a decision.

So far, the only Democrat in the race is public school teacher Josh Weil, who lost a special election for the conservative 6th Congressional District in April.

GA-Sen

State Insurance Commissioner John King dropped out of the Republican primary on Thursday, a decision that came after a meeting in which Gov. Brian Kemp told King he'd be supporting former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein reports.

Dooley, the son of the late University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley, has not yet announced a campaign against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, but that might soon change. Punchbowl News also reported Thursday that Dooley is "expected to jump into the race during the coming weeks."

But while Dooley's longtime friendship with Kemp helped him avoid one primary opponent, he's still going to face serious opposition for the Republican nomination. Rep. Buddy Carter entered the race in May, while fellow Rep. Mike Collins has made it no secret that he's preparing to launch his own bid soon.

Bluestein says that Kemp also informed both congressmen that he was behind Dooley, but the two have a big advantage that King lacked: money.

The insurance commissioner, who is now seeking reelection, finished June with just $450,000 in the bank, and Bluestein says that the governor brought up his weak fundraising in their conversation.

Carter, by contrast, had over $4 million available after doing extensive self-funding. Collins has a smaller, but still notable, $1 million sitting in his House account that he can use to jumpstart a statewide effort.

Ossoff, meanwhile, has a gigantic $15 million war chest, and no competitive primary to sap his resources.

NC-Sen

Lara Trump, Donald Trump's daughter-in-law, has confirmed reports that she won't seek North Carolina's open Senate seat next year. In a statement posted on social media, however, she did not mention RNC chair Michael Whatley, who is reportedly set to announce a campaign soon.

Governors

MI-Gov

Michigan businessman Kevin Rinke, who lost the GOP primary for governor in 2022, is touting a "Big Announcement" set for Aug. 23. Rinke confirmed in April that he's considering another bid for the state's open governorship.

NV-Gov

Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada's senior senator, endorsed Attorney General Aaron Ford on Thursday as he seeks to oust Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo next year.

Ford has long signaled his intention to run for governor, but he has yet to formally kick off a campaign. A few days ago, Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill unexpectedly beat Ford to the punch when she announced her own bid for the Democratic nomination. Former Gov. Steve Sisolak, whom Lombardo narrowly ousted in 2022, is also weighing a comeback.

PA-Gov

Did Doug Mastriano just announce another bid for governor? The far-right conspiracy theorist and Pennsylvania state senator tweeted on Wednesday evening, "A quarter million people weighed in. Here is the people's choice," followed by a graphic reading "Doug Mastriano for Governor."

Mastriano, who got crushed by Democrat Josh Shapiro in 2022, has messed with us before, teasing a Senate bid last cycle, for instance, before ultimately opting out. And his X feed is filled with all sorts of similar musings about a gubernatorial bid, so who knows? The only thing we can say for sure is that the GOP still lacks a candidate to take on Shapiro next year, and Mastriano could very well fill that gap.

House

CA-03

Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley holds a small 47-45 advantage over Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall, according to a new internal poll for Hall's campaign.

The survey, conducted by the Democratic firm Tulchin Research, is the first we've seen pitting Kiley against Hall in California's 3rd District, a sprawling constituency that reaches south from the northeastern Sacramento suburbs to Death Valley. Data from The Downballot shows that Donald Trump carried the 3rd 50-47 last year as Kiley won his second term by a larger 55-45 spread.

So far, though, donors haven't focused on Hall, who is the only Democrat currently in the race. The challenger raised just over $150,000 during her first quarter in the race, and she ended June with $100,000 banked. Kiley, by contrast, took in $620,000 and had $1.4 million stockpiled.

FL-15

Air Force veteran Darren McAuley, who worked as a doctor for the Veterans Health Administration and as Florida's State Air Surgeon, announced Thursday that he would challenge Republican Rep. Laurel Lee in the 15th District.

McAuley is the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign in a suburban Tampa constituency that, like the state as a whole, lurched sharply to the right last year. Donald Trump carried the 15th 55-44 after taking it just 51-48 in 2020.

Last cycle, Democrats hoped to target this seat, especially after Trump tried to recruit a primary challenger to punish Lee for supporting Gov. Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign. Trump, though, ended up endorsing Lee after no serious candidates took up his call, and the congresswoman went on to defeat Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp 56-44.

FL Redistricting, MO Redistricting

As Texas Republicans prepare to gerrymander their state's already skewed congressional map, their counterparts in other states are increasingly eager to follow suit.

Donald Trump's advisors are pushing Missouri Republicans to dismantle a Democratic-held congressional district in the Kansas City area, Punchbowl reported on Thursday. That same day, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said it would be "appropriate" to redraw the state's congressional map, which he himself previously drew to heavily favor the GOP.

In comments to reporters, DeSantis claimed Florida's map was "malapportioned" because of "the way the population has shifted around Florida just since the census was done in 2020."

Under longstanding Supreme Court precedent, however, electoral districts may only be drawn on the basis of decennial census numbers, not Census Bureau estimates produced in the years between formal counts. Whatever DeSantis' purported justification might be, though, Florida Republicans would face few obstacles if they seek to revamp their state's map, which already gives them a 20-8 advantage.

In Missouri, however, any such effort would face significant resistance in the state Senate, where, after a bitter fight three years ago, Republican leaders rejected demands by hardliners that they dismantle the Kansas City-area 5th District.

Things are even worse now. In May, the Senate collapsed into disarray after Republicans deployed a seldom-used procedural tactic to cut off a Democratic filibuster and ram through a ballot measure that would repeal an amendment voters adopted last year enshrining the right to an abortion in the state constitution.

As a result, many other GOP priorities failed to pass, and furious Democrats have vowed a campaign of further obstruction.

Republicans could, in theory, use that same parliamentary maneuver—known as "calling the previous question"—to adopt a map that gerrymanders the 5th District. However, doing so would ultimately require making the once-rare "PQ" an everyday tool and thereby usher in the end of the chamber's uncommonly strong filibuster, which grants individual senators great power that many may be reluctant to relinquish.

The 5th District's longtime congressman, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, was also defiant, saying he'd seek reelection regardless of what Republicans might do to his seat.

"I'm a football player," he told Punchbowl. "When you tell me you're going to run over me, then I become a little more physical. I'm not going to just lay down."

IL-07

Former Cook County Commissioner Richard Boykin will announce his campaign for Illinois' safely Democratic 7th District on Tuesday, according to an invitation first obtained by Politico, and there's good reason to think he'll be running for an open seat.

While Democratic Rep. Danny Davis has yet to confirm that he'll retire after 15 years in office, the 83-year-old incumbent and Boykin are close both politically and personally.

Davis recently told WVON that Boykin, who spent almost a decade as his chief of staff, was "like my son." The former commissioner, for his part, also informed the Chicago Crusader, "I would not run against Congressman Davis. He's my friend. We are family."

Numerous Chicago Democrats would also take an interest in running if Davis steps aside after 30 years in Congress, but one local official isn't waiting for him to retire.

Forest Park Mayor Rory Hoskins told Growing Community Media this week he'd join the race, though he seems convinced Davis wouldn't be on the ballot. Hoskins called the incumbent "a great representative for Forest Park" and pledged to emulate his focus on infrastructure.

Businessman Jason Friedman, by contrast, announced in April he'd run no matter what Davis does, and he used the ensuing months to build up a huge war chest. Friedman hauled in over $1 million from donors during his first quarter in the race and ended June with more than $900,000 banked.

KY-04

Rep. Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who's been the target of negative ads from allies of Donald Trump, is now responding with his own spot focusing on Jeffrey Epstein.

Referencing those attacks, Massie begins his message by saying, "They're attacking me because I'm holding the Washington machine accountable." Noting that he's voted against both Democratic and Republican spending bills, he then says, "I'm leading the charge to force a vote to release the complete Epstein files." Axios says Massie is spending $115,000 to air his ad.

Massie and California Democrat Ro Khanna are circulating a resolution known as a discharge petition that would bypass House GOP leadership and require the federal government to release all unclassified materials related to Epstein. It's already attracted more than 30 cosponsors from across the political spectrum, ranging from Colorado Republican Lauren Boebert to Michigan Democrat Rashida Tlaib.

MI-10

Army and Navy veteran Tripp Adams said Thursday that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary for Michigan's 10th District to "prioritize my mental health."

Four other notable Democrats remain in the race to flip this suburban Detroit constituency, which GOP Rep. John James is giving up to run for governor. Republicans are still waiting for their first major candidate for a district that Donald Trump won 52-46 last year.

NC-06

High Point Mayor Cyril Jefferson filed FEC paperwork this week for a potential campaign for the Democratic nomination to face freshman GOP Rep. Addison McDowell in North Carolina's 6th District.

Last cycle, the GOP passed a brutal gerrymander that dramatically transformed this Greensboro-area constituency from a reliably blue seat into one that no Democratic candidates believed was winnable in 2024. Consequently, Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning did not seek reelection, and McDowell, who faced only third-party opposition in the general election, easily won as Donald Trump carried the revamped 6th 58-41.

OH-07

Former Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, a Democrat who waged a disastrous campaign for governor of Ohio a decade ago, unexpectedly announced Thursday that he would challenge Republican Rep. Max Miller.

The current incarnation of the 7th District, which is based in Cleveland's southern suburbs, backed Donald Trump 55-44 last year. Republicans, though, will have the chance to pass a new map this fall.

FitzGerald was one of the more prominent Democrats in the state back in 2014 when he sought to unseat Republican Gov. John Kasich in what initially seemed like a competitive race. But that's not how it turned out.

FitzGerald's campaign fell apart before Labor Day thanks to a host of issues, including the departure of many of his top staffers and revelations that he'd driven taxpayer vehicles for a decade without a valid license. Kasich, who benefited from a strong political climate for the GOP that year, ended up winning in a 65-33 rout that seemed to mark the end of FitzGerald's career.

The former executive, though, instead became the first notable Democrat to challenge Miller, a former Trump aide, in a constituency that may look quite a bit different next year.

This mid-decade round of redistricting is necessary because, under the convoluted constitutional amendment that voters passed in 2018, new maps can only be used for a full 10 years if they win bipartisan support from the state's seven-member redistricting commission. That didn't happen, allowing the Republican-dominated legislature to jam through the GOP's preferred boundaries, though they were only valid for two election cycles.

The process is likely to repeat itself this fall, giving Republicans the opportunity to implement a new gerrymander for the rest of the decade. Democrats, however, may be able to use the state's referendum process to stop the GOP from further gerrymandering the map.

Morning Digest: How Democrats might stop the Ohio GOP from gerrymandering again

TN-05

Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder said Wednesday that he would not seek reelection to his current post, an announcement that came one day after he told the Tennessee Lookout that he's "strongly considering" seeking the Democratic nomination to oppose GOP Rep. Andy Ogles.

Molder alluded to his potential congressional campaign in revealing that he wouldn't run for mayor again, saying, "You may have heard that I'm considering a few options. More on that later."

TX-15

Tejano music star Bobby Pulido publicly acknowledged for the first time that he's thinking of opposing Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas' 15th District in the Rio Grande Valley.

Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner whom Politico identified as a top potential Democratic recruit back in January, told the Texas Tribune he would take the rest of 2025 to decide whether to run. But Pulido, whose farewell tour is set to conclude in December, says he'll host "ranch halls" events starting next month. (Texas' candidate filing deadline is also in December.)

The potential candidate, who is frequently identified as a "superstar" in media reports, would join emergency physician Ada Cuellar, who entered the Democratic primary last week. The current version of the 15th District favored Donald Trump 59-41 four years after it supported him by a smaller 51-48 spread, but those numbers could shift if Republicans pass a new gerrymander in the ongoing special legislative session.