Fun side note, the House of Representatives is currently 16 Independents, 2 Dems and 2 Reps, with the governing coalition being both Dems with 12 of the Indies
Thank you for this! We have covered Puerto Rico (at some length!) in the past, but yeah, we just don't have the bandwidth for the smaller territories, so this update is appreciated.
How so? Could you detail this a bit more? At the time, I was stunned Mandela Barnes failed to defeat the utterly-reprehensible Ron Johnson. He did come within 1%, but a loss is a loss.
Just over 1.11 million voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary. Of those, just under half — 48% — filled out all five slots for multiple candidates.
The data shows that 376,418 voters, or more than 70% of those who filled out all five slots, left Cuomo off their ballot.
Nice to see Kevin Kiley looking potentially vulnerable in CA-03. Heidi Hall seems interesting, and I've always liked the idea of recruiting popular local Dems for House seats: https://www.nevadacountyca.gov/1971/About-Heidi-Hall
(I would also totally move to my family cabin if it had, say, winter road maintenance and proximity to a job.)
Friends do have a family cabin in CA-03 and Kiley is the worst: anti wilderness, anti environment, anti cabin owner....and the folks of that district vote for him
That's my district. Kiley makes an effort on constituent services and he's run well so far, but he's never had to take controversial votes before this year or run in an election that's a referendum on his own party. That topline sounds about right to me, I'd expect this one to be decided by low single digits.
He won Jeffries and Co. districts by relatively smaller margins. NY10's primary was notably a clown car primary with multiple progressives competing in which AOC refused to weigh in.
You are correct. He didn't actually push him out. Jones just pretended he did and Maloney didn't correct him. I had forgotten that this was revised during the 2024 campaign.
I liked Mondaire initially myself. (I actually voted for him in the primary in 2020.) I thought him tacking to the center later on was stupid — no one was fooled, his previous supporters now hated him, and he humiliated himself anyway so it was foolish in my opinion.
Question: Does the 2028 Presidential race risk being a distraction in the 2026 Midterms? Should Democratic hopefuls wait until after the Midterm Elections to announce their candidacy?
(Note: I am not suggesting any talk about actual candidates, whether likely or potential.)
I also think my earlier comment applies to House and Senate candidates too. Like if Roy Cooper wins the Senate seat, the person(s) challenging Ted Budd in 2028 should wait until the 2026 midterm elections are certified.
It would be bad optics for any Democratic Presidential hopefuls to announce a run before the 2026 midterms as it would distract from the Democratic Party's focus on making gains next year. If the news media floats talk about 2028 candidates before the midterms, I wouldn't be surprised.
Quite honestly, with what happened in the 2024 presidential election I wouldn't be surprised that Democrats wait until the beginning of 2027 to jump in the race.
I think as long as they don't announce before it's fine. Clinton and Obama both campaigned for Democratic candidates in the lead up to the 06 elections.
As long as the 28 contenders don't make it about themselves and don't officially announce until after the midterms I think it's fine and helpful for them to stump for 26 candidates.
Perhaps the Washington Commanders should compromise with that prick in the Oval Office – changing their name to the Washington Red Foreskins in his honor.
Could be worse, GOP primaries usually consist of Trump endorsing someone, that person effectively becomes the nominee, and then maybe someone else runs and promptly craters.
I like the idea of a lot of people on this list, but many of them have proven underwhelming in previous bids for office. I hope we get a real primary, where at least two candidates have the resources and momentum to compete. The 2018 governor and 2022 senate primaries were so anemic and dispiriting.
Thank you so much! I truly appreciate it. I'm sorry there's no way to "turn off" those asks for folks who are already sponsors, but perhaps Substack will add that as a feature in the future. I'm grateful to you for not minding them. One paid subscriber canceled because of them! 🥴 I was like, c'mon, we gotta eat!
Missed this: Arnold Palacios (R), Governor of the Northern Mariana Islands died on July 23. LG David Apatang (I) succeeded to the office. Palacios was elected as an Independent in 2022 over the incumbent Ralph Torres (R) (for whom he was LG), but switched back to the Republicans in December '24
That remined me of a factoid re' CA governors: During the 68 years from 1943 to 2011 CA had Republican governors for 48 of those years. The state really changed in '92 (Clinton) and it was an immigration issue that was a major player in that change. Even though Pete W was re- elected. Another factoid, 40 men 0 women: time for a change I would think!
My immediate thought as well! My favorite detail about that race was that the ninth-place candidate was an absolute nobody named George Schwartzman, who very clearly benefited from sharing the same first few letters of his last name with the winner!
I remember after Schwarzenegger had announced and the campaigns were in full swing, he was on The Tonight Show again (Arnold had originally announced his candidacy on the show weeks earlier).
IIRC, to meet the equal-time requirements, NBC invited any other candidate on the show that night and they were all sitting together in the front rows of the audience seats. A 100 or so showed up and got their names plus some face time on the air.
Only a couple of them got any real mention or interaction with Jay Leno, but in particular the marijuana candidate so some pot jokes could be made about him.
Some sad news: Robert Radin, a supporter of The Downballot, just died. I don't believe he was a commenter, but he appears to have had a fascinating life, based on his obituary. May his memory be a blessing. https://www.heraldtribune.com/obituaries/psar1233599
Looks like AIPAC are back. Now Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA) is their newest target. A poll got pushed out that AIPAC is suspected of being behind, testing her against former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale and Pittsburgh city councillor Rachel Heisler. I suspect they smell blood in the water after Ed Gainey lost. Nevermind that 4 out of 8 progressive judge candidates also won around that time (or so I’ve heard) and that a referendum to prevent water privatization overwhelmingly won a yes vote.
Question for anyone in the know — could Lee be vulnerable?
Oh haha we had the same thought.
Fun side note, the House of Representatives is currently 16 Independents, 2 Dems and 2 Reps, with the governing coalition being both Dems with 12 of the Indies
Thanks very much for informing us about happenings there! What are the big issues in the upcoming campaign likely to be?
What you posted is appreciated!
Thank you for this! We have covered Puerto Rico (at some length!) in the past, but yeah, we just don't have the bandwidth for the smaller territories, so this update is appreciated.
How so? Could you detail this a bit more? At the time, I was stunned Mandela Barnes failed to defeat the utterly-reprehensible Ron Johnson. He did come within 1%, but a loss is a loss.
Didn't campaign for him till mid to late-October. So I guess you'll have to try again with your apparent Bernie hatred.
His campaigning for Barnes in late October helped Barnes close the gap. And almost win.
Republicans calling Democrats socialists, this is definitely something they wouldn't have thought to do until Bernie showed up /s
In reality Mandela was kind of abandoned by the DSCC towards the end.
Next, they'll be calling them communists.
Yeah...it's been well established that I think Bernie and crew have cost Democrats seats in the past, but I don't think this is one of them.
Totally incorrect. Barnes was trailing, and that he came within 1 point was a surprise. So I guess the candidate should make sure Bernie shows up.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2022/wisconsin/johnson-vs-barnes
Your own link above is dated October 19. Barnes was trailing by several points by then.
https://www.wispolitics.com/2022/johnson-campaign-socialist-bernie-sanders-top-priority-electing-socialist-mandela-barnes/
The polls are a compilation.
Not a productive conversation. Time for everyone to move on.
NYC primary:
Just over 1.11 million voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary. Of those, just under half — 48% — filled out all five slots for multiple candidates.
The data shows that 376,418 voters, or more than 70% of those who filled out all five slots, left Cuomo off their ballot.
https://gothamist.com/news/how-did-new-yorkers-rank-their-mayoral-candidates-the-data-is-in
(Raises hand.) Thanks for the great summary and stats!
Do you know if that data exists for 2021?
In particular what I'm curious about is what percentage of the exhausted ballots were fully ranked.
The PDF linked to in the Gothamist article has a discussion of exhausted ballots, but it doesn't answer my specific question.
https://www.nyccfb.info/pdf/2021-2022_VoterAnalysisReport.pdf
The BOE has released "cast-vote records" in both races - those are the raw materials that make these analyses possible.
Steven Romalewski's site has a lot of this stuff: https://www.electionatlas.nyc/maps.html#!NYCResults2021interactivemap
Also see: https://bsky.app/profile/sromalewski.bsky.social/post/3lsfrapzvik2b
Nice to see Kevin Kiley looking potentially vulnerable in CA-03. Heidi Hall seems interesting, and I've always liked the idea of recruiting popular local Dems for House seats: https://www.nevadacountyca.gov/1971/About-Heidi-Hall
(I would also totally move to my family cabin if it had, say, winter road maintenance and proximity to a job.)
I haven’t been impressed with her fundraising. We could do better than her.
Friends do have a family cabin in CA-03 and Kiley is the worst: anti wilderness, anti environment, anti cabin owner....and the folks of that district vote for him
That's my district. Kiley makes an effort on constituent services and he's run well so far, but he's never had to take controversial votes before this year or run in an election that's a referendum on his own party. That topline sounds about right to me, I'd expect this one to be decided by low single digits.
Zohran Mamdani won Dan Goldman's Congressional District (NY10) by thirty-seven percent (68.2% to 31.8%).
https://x.com/MichaelLangeNYC/status/1948380730741948821
He won Jeffries and Co. districts by relatively smaller margins. NY10's primary was notably a clown car primary with multiple progressives competing in which AOC refused to weigh in.
Mondaire Jones cost Niou the election.
And NY-17 a Democratic Rep. Fuck Mondaire.
I think later reporting casts doubt on that narrative?
You are correct. He didn't actually push him out. Jones just pretended he did and Maloney didn't correct him. I had forgotten that this was revised during the 2024 campaign.
Even if all those candidates ran in the "right" districts, there is no guarantee any of them would have won.
I ranked Jones first, considering him the best option, so fuck me too?
Not you, Mondaire himself. I’m also bitter about his lousy 2024 run. I cannot believe he repeated SPM’s mistakes.
Good political positions, inept at political strategy and tactics.
I liked Mondaire initially myself. (I actually voted for him in the primary in 2020.) I thought him tacking to the center later on was stupid — no one was fooled, his previous supporters now hated him, and he humiliated himself anyway so it was foolish in my opinion.
And/or vice versa?
Question: Does the 2028 Presidential race risk being a distraction in the 2026 Midterms? Should Democratic hopefuls wait until after the Midterm Elections to announce their candidacy?
(Note: I am not suggesting any talk about actual candidates, whether likely or potential.)
I think any potential 2028 candidates should wait until December 2026 or January 2027 before announcing anything.
I also think my earlier comment applies to House and Senate candidates too. Like if Roy Cooper wins the Senate seat, the person(s) challenging Ted Budd in 2028 should wait until the 2026 midterm elections are certified.
It would be bad optics for any Democratic Presidential hopefuls to announce a run before the 2026 midterms as it would distract from the Democratic Party's focus on making gains next year. If the news media floats talk about 2028 candidates before the midterms, I wouldn't be surprised.
Quite honestly, with what happened in the 2024 presidential election I wouldn't be surprised that Democrats wait until the beginning of 2027 to jump in the race.
I think as long as they don't announce before it's fine. Clinton and Obama both campaigned for Democratic candidates in the lead up to the 06 elections.
Yes.
And Obama will likely be summoned again to help campaign for Democrats in
2026, as will Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigeg and others who previously ran.
As long as the 28 contenders don't make it about themselves and don't officially announce until after the midterms I think it's fine and helpful for them to stump for 26 candidates.
Agreed.
Micro-Penis…the Southpark sobriquet for DJT…
When other epithets don’t stick…
Perhaps the Washington Commanders should compromise with that prick in the Oval Office – changing their name to the Washington Red Foreskins in his honor.
WI Gov
That was quick:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/25/wisconsin-lt-gov-sara-rodriguez-launches-gubernatorial-bid-00476581
That could be crucial.
When it was really crucial, we called it Wauke$ha county.
I hope we have a productive primary where substantive issues are discussed and that we all unite as one when it is all over.
You and me both.
Could be worse, GOP primaries usually consist of Trump endorsing someone, that person effectively becomes the nominee, and then maybe someone else runs and promptly craters.
Today is her 50th birthday. Maybe that's why she's announcing today.
Also entering the race for WI Gov, David Crowley (Milwaukee County Executive)
https://bsky.app/profile/tmj4.com/post/3lus32u2aow2e
I like the idea of a lot of people on this list, but many of them have proven underwhelming in previous bids for office. I hope we get a real primary, where at least two candidates have the resources and momentum to compete. The 2018 governor and 2022 senate primaries were so anemic and dispiriting.
Does Darren McAuley's position as State Air Surgeon in Florida mean that he is responsible for remedying the Sunshine State's polluted air?
I already AM a proud paid sponsor. Keep writing the good write!
Thank you so much! I truly appreciate it. I'm sorry there's no way to "turn off" those asks for folks who are already sponsors, but perhaps Substack will add that as a feature in the future. I'm grateful to you for not minding them. One paid subscriber canceled because of them! 🥴 I was like, c'mon, we gotta eat!
David...because you made that we gotta eat comment I just subscribed! Thank you for everything you do.
Yes, "c'mon, we gotta eat" is primo marketing, right up there with "like a good neighbor...", "you deserve a break today...", and "just do it."
Right on! Where are all the other new subscribers on this special day?
Burt, you're a mensch! That made me smile. Have a wonderful weekend!
Missed this: Arnold Palacios (R), Governor of the Northern Mariana Islands died on July 23. LG David Apatang (I) succeeded to the office. Palacios was elected as an Independent in 2022 over the incumbent Ralph Torres (R) (for whom he was LG), but switched back to the Republicans in December '24
BF offered a very helpful detailed summary above! https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-tony-evers-announces/comment/138841344
yeah I caught that right after I posted mine lol
With the GOP into mid-decade gerrymandering, it makes it even more important to compete everywhere.
Question: would it ever be possible in any state to have a ballot with nearly 200 candidates on it? The leader of the Conservative Party up here is big mad because he thinks this is a mockery or something: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Battle_River%E2%80%94Crowfoot_federal_by-election
First one that I thought of was the CA 2003 Recall election; however, that had "only" 135 candidates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_California_gubernatorial_recall_election#Recall_election
That remined me of a factoid re' CA governors: During the 68 years from 1943 to 2011 CA had Republican governors for 48 of those years. The state really changed in '92 (Clinton) and it was an immigration issue that was a major player in that change. Even though Pete W was re- elected. Another factoid, 40 men 0 women: time for a change I would think!
My immediate thought as well! My favorite detail about that race was that the ninth-place candidate was an absolute nobody named George Schwartzman, who very clearly benefited from sharing the same first few letters of his last name with the winner!
Lorant Polya has an inside track then!
I remember after Schwarzenegger had announced and the campaigns were in full swing, he was on The Tonight Show again (Arnold had originally announced his candidacy on the show weeks earlier).
IIRC, to meet the equal-time requirements, NBC invited any other candidate on the show that night and they were all sitting together in the front rows of the audience seats. A 100 or so showed up and got their names plus some face time on the air.
Only a couple of them got any real mention or interaction with Jay Leno, but in particular the marijuana candidate so some pot jokes could be made about him.
Lol. Poilievre didn't have to force a by-election, what a whiny crybaby.
Staying up until it was confirmed he had lost was the best sleepless night I've had in a long time.
Some sad news: Robert Radin, a supporter of The Downballot, just died. I don't believe he was a commenter, but he appears to have had a fascinating life, based on his obituary. May his memory be a blessing. https://www.heraldtribune.com/obituaries/psar1233599
RIP
PA-12:
https://theintercept.com/2025/07/25/aipac-summer-lee-israel-primary/
Looks like AIPAC are back. Now Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA) is their newest target. A poll got pushed out that AIPAC is suspected of being behind, testing her against former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale and Pittsburgh city councillor Rachel Heisler. I suspect they smell blood in the water after Ed Gainey lost. Nevermind that 4 out of 8 progressive judge candidates also won around that time (or so I’ve heard) and that a referendum to prevent water privatization overwhelmingly won a yes vote.
Question for anyone in the know — could Lee be vulnerable?
I might be mixing names up but I thought DePasquale was in Perry's district?
He was, in 2020. Not sure why AIPAC thinks he could win — he lost the Perry race and the AG race.
And one of his main strengths was his ostensibly his popularity in the York/Harrisburg, which obviously wouldn't be applicable in this race.
I doubt it. They went after her big-time last cycle and failed.
Lee had a primary opponent, but AIPAC did not get involved. Gift link: https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2024-04-21/ty-article/.premium/aipac-isnt-targeting-squad-member-summer-lee-in-tuesdays-democratic-primary-heres-why/0000018f-0038-db32-a58f-fcbfc11f0000?gift=c029673e057b49c291d756dcd2296219
"This article has reached its free share limit". Oh well. Was it 2 cycles ago that AIPAC or a PAC associated with them went after her?
They’re also lining up someone to run against Omar. They won’t quit since all they have to lose is money, which they have plenty of.
Where have you seen that reported re Omar?
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2025/07/24/ilhan-omar-dnc-primary-challenge-latonya-reeves
No mention of AIPAC in that article. Was there another one you had in mind?