11 Comments
User's avatar
⭠ Return to thread
Avedee Eikew's avatar

I'm not sure if this was picked up earlier but CO-08:

"“Republicans and Libertarians are joining forces to defeat Yadira Caraveo and her extreme, far-left agenda,” Evans said in a statement, adding that he and Joss were "united in our determination to rein in the size, scope, cost and corruption of government."

Calling Joss' decision a "strategic maneuver" intended to consolidate the anti-incumbent vote, state Libertarian spokesman Jordan Marinovich said the party hoped that the move would prevent Joss from splitting conservative-leaning voters with Evans and "(move) the needle toward more liberty in Colorado

In order to secure Joss's backing, Evans signed a heavily revised version of the "Pledge for Liberty" created last year by Colorado Libertarians, agreeing to uphold promises described as "the best way to make America a freer and more prosperous country."

The pledge itself uses language that is pretty abstract/open to interpretation and the marijuana plank may actually help him a bit. If Harris wins the 8th by around the same 5 point margin Biden won it by or better Caraveo probably wins too. Incumbency should also help, but her very narrow win in 2022 despite Dems crushing it statewide is a concern. Caraveo won 48.4-47.7 in 2022 with the Lib getting the remainder.

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/columnists/colorado-libertarian-endorses-republican-gabe-evans-exits-competitive-8th-cd-race--trail-mix/article_139842aa-6a5c-11ef-ad62-b3cff81db81c.html

Expand full comment
Darren Monaghan's avatar

In 2022, Gov. Polis won CO-08 by 8 points and Sen. Bennet by around 4 points, so congresswoman Yadira Caraveo (D) is a strong favorite, especially with presidential cycle and Trump at the top of the ticket. I'm not too worried about this seat!! 💙🇺🇲

Expand full comment
michaelflutist's avatar

What percentage does the Libertarian House candidate usually get in this district?

Expand full comment
Darren Monaghan's avatar

In 2022, the result was:

Yadira Caraveo (D): 48%.

Barbara Kirkmeyer (R): 48%.

Richard "Dan" Ward (L): 4%.

This was rounded up; by the way!! 💙🇺🇲

Expand full comment
michaelflutist's avatar

Thanks. So this is a real threat.

Expand full comment
Darren Monaghan's avatar

Maybe, but she now has the advantage of incumbency in a presidential cycle with Trump at the top of the ticket, which is why I'm confident she'll be fine!! 💙🇺🇲

Expand full comment
hilltopper's avatar

I love your confidence but note that Sabato, Cook, and Inside Politics (Gonzales) each rate fewer than a dozen seats as toss-up, and each one rates this one to be so.

Expand full comment
Avedee Eikew's avatar

The fact that she won by 0.7 despite Bennett winning it by 4 and Polis by 8 is my concern. Hopefully, Harris wins the district by 5 or more and incumbency helps.

Expand full comment
David Nir's avatar

But of course, Bennett and Polis were incumbents. She didn't run behind them because of any weakness but becauser she was less well-known/not the incumbent.

Expand full comment
Avedee Eikew's avatar

Fair point. The R in the CU Regents race won the seat 51.7-48.3 so I think it's fair to say the libertarian may have won the race for Caraveo last time but I agree incumbency should help her to some degree this time and I expect Harris to win the seat at least narrowly. It will be close.

Expand full comment
Jonathan's avatar

Imo this is a bellwether type race; winning these marginal seats are the key to the majority

Expand full comment