Here are my own 31-day and 14-day polling averages as we go into the convention. I've been using polls of registered voters with minor candidates included where possible. The state 14-day averages don't have many polls, so the number of polls for each state are in parentheses.
Here are my own 31-day and 14-day polling averages as we go into the convention. I've been using polls of registered voters with minor candidates included where possible. The state 14-day averages don't have many polls, so the number of polls for each state are in parentheses.
AZ 31-day T+0.4, 14-day (2) H+1.0
GA 31-day T+2.1, 14-day (2) T+5.0
MI 31-day H+1.8, 14-day (4) H+3.0
NV 31-day H+0.0, 14-day (2) H+1.5
NC 31-day T+0.5, 14-day (3) H+1.3
PA 31-day H+0.6, 14-day (6) H+1.5
WI 31-day H+2.3, 14-day (5) H+4.4
National 31-day H+1.3, 14-day H+1.9
Both the national and (limited) state polls show that Harris is generally polling better this month than last. I wouldn't expect Georgia to be her worst state, but go figure. We'll see what these look like after the convention.
Maybe just noise but I too can’t see an obvious reason for GA to be Harris’s worst state from the group. I worry most about NV but as always PA way too close for comfort
If Harris wins NC, she's already won GA.. Imo..those are the 2 states out of the Big 7 that are must Trump states.. And honestly, Harris can actually afford to lose them, while Trump simply can't
The British poll without crosstab being published, sounds like a joke to me. I don’t know if they have any understanding of American electorate to operate here. Four years ago R&W, another reputable British pollster, had completely wacko findings.
Siena already acknowledged their sample might be a bit red leaning. If they considered all ATL metro counties voted Blue as inner suburbs, and rest as north Georgia or outer suburbs, then the sample is about 6pt less fair share of inner suburbs and 6pt too much outer/north. Don’t try unskew it, but if you do, you get a literal tie. LOL.
I think Biden might have won Georgia by relying on the votes of a particular kind of conservative white people and military folks. I'm speculating, but those are two groups that might be more inclined to stay home or swing back to Trump.
You can look at Kemp-Walker difference to on what kind of moderate to conservative voters bolted from Walker, and get a good idea on Biden’d support 2yr back.
Agreed.. I refer to them as 'sane' Republicans or 'no chaos' Republicans.. Folks that think Trump's every election is I lose must be 'stolen' is almost insane (if not actually)
So you are being your best Nate Silver..??.. Thanks for doing the muscle work..very plausible numbers imo(I think GA is somewhat of an outlier here).. overall good news and before the Expected convention bump
Here are my own 31-day and 14-day polling averages as we go into the convention. I've been using polls of registered voters with minor candidates included where possible. The state 14-day averages don't have many polls, so the number of polls for each state are in parentheses.
AZ 31-day T+0.4, 14-day (2) H+1.0
GA 31-day T+2.1, 14-day (2) T+5.0
MI 31-day H+1.8, 14-day (4) H+3.0
NV 31-day H+0.0, 14-day (2) H+1.5
NC 31-day T+0.5, 14-day (3) H+1.3
PA 31-day H+0.6, 14-day (6) H+1.5
WI 31-day H+2.3, 14-day (5) H+4.4
National 31-day H+1.3, 14-day H+1.9
Both the national and (limited) state polls show that Harris is generally polling better this month than last. I wouldn't expect Georgia to be her worst state, but go figure. We'll see what these look like after the convention.
I'm a bit confused about GA as well. I suppose there must be a race/gender hesitation among 2020 Biden voters there?
Maybe just noise but I too can’t see an obvious reason for GA to be Harris’s worst state from the group. I worry most about NV but as always PA way too close for comfort
If Harris wins NC, she's already won GA.. Imo..those are the 2 states out of the Big 7 that are must Trump states.. And honestly, Harris can actually afford to lose them, while Trump simply can't
The British poll without crosstab being published, sounds like a joke to me. I don’t know if they have any understanding of American electorate to operate here. Four years ago R&W, another reputable British pollster, had completely wacko findings.
Siena already acknowledged their sample might be a bit red leaning. If they considered all ATL metro counties voted Blue as inner suburbs, and rest as north Georgia or outer suburbs, then the sample is about 6pt less fair share of inner suburbs and 6pt too much outer/north. Don’t try unskew it, but if you do, you get a literal tie. LOL.
I think Biden might have won Georgia by relying on the votes of a particular kind of conservative white people and military folks. I'm speculating, but those are two groups that might be more inclined to stay home or swing back to Trump.
Some may respond to Walz being on the ticket though.
You can look at Kemp-Walker difference to on what kind of moderate to conservative voters bolted from Walker, and get a good idea on Biden’d support 2yr back.
Agreed.. I refer to them as 'sane' Republicans or 'no chaos' Republicans.. Folks that think Trump's every election is I lose must be 'stolen' is almost insane (if not actually)
Trump and Vance both seem to be doing what they can to keep Trump’s underperformance with military families going.
So you are being your best Nate Silver..??.. Thanks for doing the muscle work..very plausible numbers imo(I think GA is somewhat of an outlier here).. overall good news and before the Expected convention bump
Not close to what Silver does, just simple averages. I exclude pollsters with a history of boosting the GOP to drive a narrative, though.