I'm inclined to disagree-if only because I think Sears can separate herself from everyone else on her ticket-that said Spanberger is a stronger candidate than people give her credit for-I would be shocked if she lost.
Sears can probably separate herself from personal issues regarding her ticket mates. I don't think that what's causing controversy about Reid really should be a big deal, at least from what we know, even assuming the Instagram and possible online accounts in question are his, which he denies.
But she probably can't entirely distance herself from Trump and other national Republicans, try as she might, which will make it difficult though not impossible for her to win. Youngkin won by only 3 in what was a much more pro-GOP environment than is likely to exist this year, and Spanberger is probably a considerably better candidate than McAuliffe was even with a decently regarded previous term under his belt. McAuliffe wasn't that great in 2013 either, but Ken Cuccinelli was just too loudly right wing, especially on social issues, for modern day Virginia.
Yes. That and the fact that Virginia generally elects Governors from the party NOT in the White House. From 1977 onward, only Terry McAuliffe in 2013 has that not been true for. And even then, he failed to obtain a majority of the vote.
The last time before 2013 when the party in the WH won VA-Gov was 1973. And that was a really unique situation: the Republican, Mills Godwin, had previously served as a Democrat, in which he broke from the state's conservative Harry Byrd-era establishment on several fiscal and social issues, including civil rights. Godwin narrowly defeated Henry Howell, a populist Democrat who ran as an independent (so technically there was no Dem candidate) bashing the state's business and political establishment.
Godwin managed to defeat Howell by criticizing him on fiscal and social issues including busing and the state budget, overcoming the drag of the national GOP and Nixon administration that by then was drowning in Watergate and economic problems.
That and the fact that Howell was simply way too populist for Virginia. The Old Dominion even in the day of the "Solid South" was never supportive of populist politics. Howell would learn the wrong lesson from the 1973 campaign and get clobbered in his 1977 bid against then Lieutenant Governor John Dalton. I still maintain that had Sarge Reynolds not died, Linwood Holton's 1969 election would have been a fluke caused by a divided Democratic Party.
That and the fact that she has said critical things about Trump in the past. This could lead to her alienating both moderates and Trump supporters like Jeff Flake did in the first half of Trump’s first term.
At this point I think Sears can win only if Spanberger implodes. Generically VA is lean D at the state level. The party that holds the White House almost always loses the governor race there, and Trump is already unpopular. Sears also has less crossover appeal than Spanberger.
Fair argument although that's contingent on how distinctive of a gubernatorial candidate Sears ends up being.
Problem is, the federal worker economy and sector is mainly situated in NoVa. If such workers and the overall NoVa turnout is high, Sears is going to be at a disadvantage. With Trump being POTUS, it's going to be a liability against her. Besides, her main problem is having no disagreements with Trump. Not going to work in her favor in the general election as long as Sears is blindly defending what Trump and Musk do.
I didn't see this story. Dear god, Earle-Sears is really out of touch with NoVa residents. We don't even need the VA GOP infighting in order to win the gubernatorial election.
Traditionally, federal employment up until when Trump and Musk came in was one of the most stable forms of work anyone could find.
The VA fed worker and military communities are going to put Assad-margins for Dems; VA-Gov is Likely D and I'll literally film myself eating a hat and post it if I'm wrong.
Not a good look for the Trump Party here in Virginia: https://www.virginiascope.com/youngkins-event-with-the-gop-statewide-ticket-next-week-is-no-longer-happening/
Abigail Spanberger’s probability in winning the gubernatorial election continues to increase with the GOP imploding.
I'm inclined to disagree-if only because I think Sears can separate herself from everyone else on her ticket-that said Spanberger is a stronger candidate than people give her credit for-I would be shocked if she lost.
Sears can probably separate herself from personal issues regarding her ticket mates. I don't think that what's causing controversy about Reid really should be a big deal, at least from what we know, even assuming the Instagram and possible online accounts in question are his, which he denies.
But she probably can't entirely distance herself from Trump and other national Republicans, try as she might, which will make it difficult though not impossible for her to win. Youngkin won by only 3 in what was a much more pro-GOP environment than is likely to exist this year, and Spanberger is probably a considerably better candidate than McAuliffe was even with a decently regarded previous term under his belt. McAuliffe wasn't that great in 2013 either, but Ken Cuccinelli was just too loudly right wing, especially on social issues, for modern day Virginia.
FWIW, Youngkin won by less than 2.
Isn't Sears's own penchant for right-wing lunacy her biggest challenge?
Yes. That and the fact that Virginia generally elects Governors from the party NOT in the White House. From 1977 onward, only Terry McAuliffe in 2013 has that not been true for. And even then, he failed to obtain a majority of the vote.
The last time before 2013 when the party in the WH won VA-Gov was 1973. And that was a really unique situation: the Republican, Mills Godwin, had previously served as a Democrat, in which he broke from the state's conservative Harry Byrd-era establishment on several fiscal and social issues, including civil rights. Godwin narrowly defeated Henry Howell, a populist Democrat who ran as an independent (so technically there was no Dem candidate) bashing the state's business and political establishment.
Godwin managed to defeat Howell by criticizing him on fiscal and social issues including busing and the state budget, overcoming the drag of the national GOP and Nixon administration that by then was drowning in Watergate and economic problems.
That and the fact that Howell was simply way too populist for Virginia. The Old Dominion even in the day of the "Solid South" was never supportive of populist politics. Howell would learn the wrong lesson from the 1973 campaign and get clobbered in his 1977 bid against then Lieutenant Governor John Dalton. I still maintain that had Sarge Reynolds not died, Linwood Holton's 1969 election would have been a fluke caused by a divided Democratic Party.
That and the fact that she has said critical things about Trump in the past. This could lead to her alienating both moderates and Trump supporters like Jeff Flake did in the first half of Trump’s first term.
What has Earle-Sears said that has been critical of Trump in the past?
At this point I think Sears can win only if Spanberger implodes. Generically VA is lean D at the state level. The party that holds the White House almost always loses the governor race there, and Trump is already unpopular. Sears also has less crossover appeal than Spanberger.
Fair argument although that's contingent on how distinctive of a gubernatorial candidate Sears ends up being.
Problem is, the federal worker economy and sector is mainly situated in NoVa. If such workers and the overall NoVa turnout is high, Sears is going to be at a disadvantage. With Trump being POTUS, it's going to be a liability against her. Besides, her main problem is having no disagreements with Trump. Not going to work in her favor in the general election as long as Sears is blindly defending what Trump and Musk do.
She's made at best insensitive comments about people losing their jobs with the feds. That will NOT endear her to Northern Virginia. Just saying. https://virginiamercury.com/2025/04/04/earle-sears-comments-on-federal-layoffs-spark-outcry-from-unions-veterans/
I didn't see this story. Dear god, Earle-Sears is really out of touch with NoVa residents. We don't even need the VA GOP infighting in order to win the gubernatorial election.
Traditionally, federal employment up until when Trump and Musk came in was one of the most stable forms of work anyone could find.
It sure seems like a lot of supposedly "anti-government" conservatives seem to love getting cushy long-term government jobs...
They HATE the government but love the perks at the same time.
Reminds me of anti-government conservatives who HATE Obamacare but love the actual benefits that the ACA has created.
The VA fed worker and military communities are going to put Assad-margins for Dems; VA-Gov is Likely D and I'll literally film myself eating a hat and post it if I'm wrong.
who would have thought that, in a million years, republicans and naked men would be a trending topic...omfg!
This kind of stuff is hardly unprecedented.