Sears can probably separate herself from personal issues regarding her ticket mates. I don't think that what's causing controversy about Reid really should be a big deal, at least from what we know, even assuming the Instagram and possible online accounts in question are his, which he denies.
Sears can probably separate herself from personal issues regarding her ticket mates. I don't think that what's causing controversy about Reid really should be a big deal, at least from what we know, even assuming the Instagram and possible online accounts in question are his, which he denies.
But she probably can't entirely distance herself from Trump and other national Republicans, try as she might, which will make it difficult though not impossible for her to win. Youngkin won by only 3 in what was a much more pro-GOP environment than is likely to exist this year, and Spanberger is probably a considerably better candidate than McAuliffe was even with a decently regarded previous term under his belt. McAuliffe wasn't that great in 2013 either, but Ken Cuccinelli was just too loudly right wing, especially on social issues, for modern day Virginia.
Yes. That and the fact that Virginia generally elects Governors from the party NOT in the White House. From 1977 onward, only Terry McAuliffe in 2013 has that not been true for. And even then, he failed to obtain a majority of the vote.
The last time before 2013 when the party in the WH won VA-Gov was 1973. And that was a really unique situation: the Republican, Mills Godwin, had previously served as a Democrat, in which he broke from the state's conservative Harry Byrd-era establishment on several fiscal and social issues, including civil rights. Godwin narrowly defeated Henry Howell, a populist Democrat who ran as an independent (so technically there was no Dem candidate) bashing the state's business and political establishment.
Godwin managed to defeat Howell by criticizing him on fiscal and social issues including busing and the state budget, overcoming the drag of the national GOP and Nixon administration that by then was drowning in Watergate and economic problems.
That and the fact that Howell was simply way too populist for Virginia. The Old Dominion even in the day of the "Solid South" was never supportive of populist politics. Howell would learn the wrong lesson from the 1973 campaign and get clobbered in his 1977 bid against then Lieutenant Governor John Dalton. I still maintain that had Sarge Reynolds not died, Linwood Holton's 1969 election would have been a fluke caused by a divided Democratic Party.
That and the fact that she has said critical things about Trump in the past. This could lead to her alienating both moderates and Trump supporters like Jeff Flake did in the first half of Trump’s first term.
At this point I think Sears can win only if Spanberger implodes. Generically VA is lean D at the state level. The party that holds the White House almost always loses the governor race there, and Trump is already unpopular. Sears also has less crossover appeal than Spanberger.
Sears can probably separate herself from personal issues regarding her ticket mates. I don't think that what's causing controversy about Reid really should be a big deal, at least from what we know, even assuming the Instagram and possible online accounts in question are his, which he denies.
But she probably can't entirely distance herself from Trump and other national Republicans, try as she might, which will make it difficult though not impossible for her to win. Youngkin won by only 3 in what was a much more pro-GOP environment than is likely to exist this year, and Spanberger is probably a considerably better candidate than McAuliffe was even with a decently regarded previous term under his belt. McAuliffe wasn't that great in 2013 either, but Ken Cuccinelli was just too loudly right wing, especially on social issues, for modern day Virginia.
FWIW, Youngkin won by less than 2.
Isn't Sears's own penchant for right-wing lunacy her biggest challenge?
Yes. That and the fact that Virginia generally elects Governors from the party NOT in the White House. From 1977 onward, only Terry McAuliffe in 2013 has that not been true for. And even then, he failed to obtain a majority of the vote.
The last time before 2013 when the party in the WH won VA-Gov was 1973. And that was a really unique situation: the Republican, Mills Godwin, had previously served as a Democrat, in which he broke from the state's conservative Harry Byrd-era establishment on several fiscal and social issues, including civil rights. Godwin narrowly defeated Henry Howell, a populist Democrat who ran as an independent (so technically there was no Dem candidate) bashing the state's business and political establishment.
Godwin managed to defeat Howell by criticizing him on fiscal and social issues including busing and the state budget, overcoming the drag of the national GOP and Nixon administration that by then was drowning in Watergate and economic problems.
That and the fact that Howell was simply way too populist for Virginia. The Old Dominion even in the day of the "Solid South" was never supportive of populist politics. Howell would learn the wrong lesson from the 1973 campaign and get clobbered in his 1977 bid against then Lieutenant Governor John Dalton. I still maintain that had Sarge Reynolds not died, Linwood Holton's 1969 election would have been a fluke caused by a divided Democratic Party.
That and the fact that she has said critical things about Trump in the past. This could lead to her alienating both moderates and Trump supporters like Jeff Flake did in the first half of Trump’s first term.
What has Earle-Sears said that has been critical of Trump in the past?
At this point I think Sears can win only if Spanberger implodes. Generically VA is lean D at the state level. The party that holds the White House almost always loses the governor race there, and Trump is already unpopular. Sears also has less crossover appeal than Spanberger.