We've been hearing that--erroneously--for multiple election cycles in a row now. It's been as reliable of a tea leaf as you're ever gonna get in telegraphing white working class trends, particularly in the Midwest.
The Iowa polling in 2016 shined a bright spotlight on looming on Midwestern weakness, but we were told Iowa results weren't determinative of the national outcome.
The final Selzer poll in 2020 telegraphed that the previous cycle's weaknesses among working-class white Midwesterners had been locked in place since 2016, but we were told Iowa results weren't determinative of the national outcome.
Aaron's breakdown is likely to be salient again for the same reason. A double-digit Trump lead in Iowa likely portends defeat in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a tight race in Minnesota.....because demographic patterns tend not to conveniently end at state lines.
I'm not at all convinced of that. I suspect the gender gap between white working-class males and white working-class females will be much smaller than the gap between working-class females and females with degrees.
With some latest polls showing Kansas T+5 and OH T+3, I'm cautiously optimistic about the blue wall holding up. Either way, Selzer will shed more light on the how the Midwestern rural whites plan to vote.
Until Trump, Ohio Republicans were always on the moderate end of the party (at least since the 80s)...The last time they ran a hard right candidate for governor (Blackwell), we beat them by 20+ points...I'd like to believe my old state still has some sense left.
My prediction for Iowa last week was Trump +11 which is right on the edge for your "close election nationally"
I'm similar. Trump +9 in Iowa.
I'm not sure Iowa election results are determinative of the national outcome.
We've been hearing that--erroneously--for multiple election cycles in a row now. It's been as reliable of a tea leaf as you're ever gonna get in telegraphing white working class trends, particularly in the Midwest.
The Iowa polling in 2016 shined a bright spotlight on looming on Midwestern weakness, but we were told Iowa results weren't determinative of the national outcome.
The final Selzer poll in 2020 telegraphed that the previous cycle's weaknesses among working-class white Midwesterners had been locked in place since 2016, but we were told Iowa results weren't determinative of the national outcome.
Aaron's breakdown is likely to be salient again for the same reason. A double-digit Trump lead in Iowa likely portends defeat in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a tight race in Minnesota.....because demographic patterns tend not to conveniently end at state lines.
Bizarrely enough, people tend to ignore the fact that in 2024 these are two very disparate groups:
тАУ The White male working class
тАУ The White female working class
The latter is really pissed off and voting overwhelmingly for Harris!
I'm not at all convinced of that. I suspect the gender gap between white working-class males and white working-class females will be much smaller than the gap between working-class females and females with degrees.
Smaller does not mean small!
Agree. I'm a WI native, and have lived in MN and MI. The voters have little identification with DC, and are more affiliated with their neighbors.
Well, I guess you're happy about her numbers, then.
Yes I'm certainly pleased with the numbers.
With some latest polls showing Kansas T+5 and OH T+3, I'm cautiously optimistic about the blue wall holding up. Either way, Selzer will shed more light on the how the Midwestern rural whites plan to vote.
Curious to see how Ohio shakes out. I can see decent cases for it getting worse or Harris closing the gap somewhat.
Until Trump, Ohio Republicans were always on the moderate end of the party (at least since the 80s)...The last time they ran a hard right candidate for governor (Blackwell), we beat them by 20+ points...I'd like to believe my old state still has some sense left.