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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm not sure Iowa election results are determinative of the national outcome.

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Mark's avatar

We've been hearing that--erroneously--for multiple election cycles in a row now. It's been as reliable of a tea leaf as you're ever gonna get in telegraphing white working class trends, particularly in the Midwest.

The Iowa polling in 2016 shined a bright spotlight on looming on Midwestern weakness, but we were told Iowa results weren't determinative of the national outcome.

The final Selzer poll in 2020 telegraphed that the previous cycle's weaknesses among working-class white Midwesterners had been locked in place since 2016, but we were told Iowa results weren't determinative of the national outcome.

Aaron's breakdown is likely to be salient again for the same reason. A double-digit Trump lead in Iowa likely portends defeat in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a tight race in Minnesota.....because demographic patterns tend not to conveniently end at state lines.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Bizarrely enough, people tend to ignore the fact that in 2024 these are two very disparate groups:

тАУ The White male working class

тАУ The White female working class

The latter is really pissed off and voting overwhelmingly for Harris!

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Mark's avatar

I'm not at all convinced of that. I suspect the gender gap between white working-class males and white working-class females will be much smaller than the gap between working-class females and females with degrees.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Smaller does not mean small!

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Aspi's avatar

Agree. I'm a WI native, and have lived in MN and MI. The voters have little identification with DC, and are more affiliated with their neighbors.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Well, I guess you're happy about her numbers, then.

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Mark's avatar

Yes I'm certainly pleased with the numbers.

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