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Tigercourse's avatar

Polling this election was fairly accurate. And polling showed Biden getting creamed. We'd likely have lost 43-45 states.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

Biden right before and after the first debate was polling near where Hardis ended up polling-wise the last two weeks (he was ahead in the June Fox News poll); he only got in the hole after 3 weeks of intra-party civil war.

Yes the age thing may have crippled turnout even more but at the same time the misogyny and "woke" attacks wouldn't have landed as well either.

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Paleo's avatar

ThatтАЩs right. It was the тАЬintra-party civil war.тАЭ Nothing else happened.

And Biden was trailing by an average 3 points in the national vote at the time he dropped out. Harris was running even.

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Tigercourse's avatar

No, the internal polling wasn't showing anything like Harris numbers. He was losing New York, NJ, etc. we might have been left with 3 west coast states, Colorado, CT, CT and Rhode Island. We would have almost certainly lost four more Senate seats and who knows how many house seats.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

What are you talking about? At his absolute nadir the worry was he'd lose MN, NH and VA. No-one ever had him losing NY or NJ let alone 45 states . .that's insanity.

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Tigercourse's avatar

... It was Biden's internal polling, widely reported on last week. He was getting destroyed. The party didn't just overthrow Biden for nothing.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

It was a completely unverified claim from Jon Favreau.

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Mike in MD's avatar

We wouldn't have lost THAT many states. This isn't 1980, and Trump isn't Reagan.

But Biden would probably have lost more than Harris did. My guess is that he might have lost most or all of MN, NM, VA, NJ, NH, ME statewide (probably holding onto ME-01), and maybe one or two others, while probably losing more decisively in several states where Harris barely fell short. Which leaves him with probably a near-irreducible minimum for Dems today. And we'd have probably dropped several (many?) more House and Senate seats, as well as more offices downballot.

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