And to pre-emptively respond to a comment that Mark27 (I can't help but still call him that) may make, higher educated turnout in midterms does not necessarily mean higher Democratic turnout. Mark likes to point out that there was higher turnout among educated voters in 2022, and tries to claim that this means there will be a surge in tu…
And to pre-emptively respond to a comment that Mark27 (I can't help but still call him that) may make, higher educated turnout in midterms does not necessarily mean higher Democratic turnout. Mark likes to point out that there was higher turnout among educated voters in 2022, and tries to claim that this means there will be a surge in turnout among voters without a college degree, a surge that he assumes will be heavily Republican. However, it is difficult to square that assumption with the fact that, despite any education-related trends, Republican turnout was still higher than Democratic turnout in 2022. If you look at precinct election results in MI, PA, or almost any state, turnout in heavily Republican precincts was higher than turnout in heavily Democratic precincts (sometimes by significant margins). In a presidential election, there will be much less of a gap, and the voters who didn't vote in 2022 but will vote this year will still be heavily Democratic, if maybe not quite as much as those who voted in 2022 (i.e. a heavily minority, working-class precinct that voted 80-20 Dem in 2022 might see their new voters this year vote only 75-25 Dem, but that's still an increase in the overall Dem vote margin).
I think so, yeah. And it's tough for me to see how voters who were persuaded to vote for Dems in 2022 thanks to our anti-Trump or pro-choice messaging would vote for Trump now.
And to pre-emptively respond to a comment that Mark27 (I can't help but still call him that) may make, higher educated turnout in midterms does not necessarily mean higher Democratic turnout. Mark likes to point out that there was higher turnout among educated voters in 2022, and tries to claim that this means there will be a surge in turnout among voters without a college degree, a surge that he assumes will be heavily Republican. However, it is difficult to square that assumption with the fact that, despite any education-related trends, Republican turnout was still higher than Democratic turnout in 2022. If you look at precinct election results in MI, PA, or almost any state, turnout in heavily Republican precincts was higher than turnout in heavily Democratic precincts (sometimes by significant margins). In a presidential election, there will be much less of a gap, and the voters who didn't vote in 2022 but will vote this year will still be heavily Democratic, if maybe not quite as much as those who voted in 2022 (i.e. a heavily minority, working-class precinct that voted 80-20 Dem in 2022 might see their new voters this year vote only 75-25 Dem, but that's still an increase in the overall Dem vote margin).
By all means, continue to call me Mark27! I tried to claim that name again but Substack said it was already taken (yet "Mark" wasn't?).
Your point is well-taken about blue county versus red county turnout in 2022.
Can you change it to Mark27a or something like that? I've done that before.
Or how about The Real Mark27?
Sounds like a DJ
That's why the GOTV advantage we have is so important(as to farming the Republican gotv out to grifters like Charlie kirk)
Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t turnout among core Ds in 2022 really bad? Like, 2010/14 bad, but we won on persuasion?
I think so, yeah. And it's tough for me to see how voters who were persuaded to vote for Dems in 2022 thanks to our anti-Trump or pro-choice messaging would vote for Trump now.
2010/14 level of bad turnout only in certain areas in certain states. Everyone remembers Florida and New York?
Also very bad for minority voter dominated areas. Most city centers, rural Black Belt, etc.