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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

Here's the question I keep coming back to. In how many states did the Republicans do better in 2012 than in 2010? As far as I can remember, the answer is very few, if any.

It's why my predictions are still these: https://www.270towin.com/maps/07k6W. Only maybe 30-40% of this is based on polls - the rest is fundamentals, previous election results, fundraising/ground game, etc. (meaning that these predictions are very unlikely to change before the election). It's really hard for me to see how Dems can do so well in MI/PA in 2022, despite low urban and minority turnout, and yet somehow lose those states this year when Democratic turnout will be much higher.

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S Kolb's avatar

Go out on a limb! Do you think KH will win any of the 3: AZ, GA, NC? Even WSJ/Murdoch pollster has KH winning with 278 EVs!

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Jonathan's avatar

Imo AZ>GA>NC

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DM's avatar

I suspect Arizona will be so close that we won't know election night, and possibly for several days after. I suspect Arizona could see violence.

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Jonathan's avatar

I think the violence might depend somewhat on the outcomes in the other battlegrounds

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ClimateHawk's avatar

Mark me down for all 3.

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Blomstervaenget's avatar

That is crazy - he will give the Ukraine to Putin (leading to more offensive attacks by him; he will let Netanyahu annihilate the Palestinians in Gaza . Neither of these paths will lead to peace. They will encourage strong men to attack the vulnerable.

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James Trout's avatar

They don't think so because "wars didn't happen when he was President."

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sacman701's avatar

Except that we were still at war in Afghanistan.

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James Trout's avatar

They don't blame Orange Slob for that. If anything it was "inherited from Obama."

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