Looks like there may be a deal to turn Damascus over to HTS. Hopefully there's a broader deal to be made between HTS, the Turk-aligned groups, and the Kurds. Maybe some assistance for HTS and the Turk proxies in exchange for guarantees that they (and the Turks themselves) leave each other and the Kurds alone?
That seems to be the calculation the junior commanders in charge of cities north of Damascus have already made.
I think the key here is that Hezbollah borked itself by going so hard at Israel. If they hadn't been engaged there and gotten wrecked, they might have been able to prop Assad up. Russia has also been in no position to help since 2022, and I assume they'll stay out of it unless HTS demands that they leave their base (which could end up as their equivalent of Guantanamo).
Here is another good minute by minute site. https://syria.liveuamap.com/
Looks like there may be a deal to turn Damascus over to HTS. Hopefully there's a broader deal to be made between HTS, the Turk-aligned groups, and the Kurds. Maybe some assistance for HTS and the Turk proxies in exchange for guarantees that they (and the Turks themselves) leave each other and the Kurds alone?
IтАЩd imagine a lot of SAA officers see the writing on the wall and donтАЩt want to die for Assad
That seems to be the calculation the junior commanders in charge of cities north of Damascus have already made.
I think the key here is that Hezbollah borked itself by going so hard at Israel. If they hadn't been engaged there and gotten wrecked, they might have been able to prop Assad up. Russia has also been in no position to help since 2022, and I assume they'll stay out of it unless HTS demands that they leave their base (which could end up as their equivalent of Guantanamo).
Hezbollah had a real opportunity to consolidate themselves in southern Lebanon with Israel otherwise occupied and didnтАЩt take it