That seems to be the calculation the junior commanders in charge of cities north of Damascus have already made.
I think the key here is that Hezbollah borked itself by going so hard at Israel. If they hadn't been engaged there and gotten wrecked, they might have been able to prop Assad up. Russia has also been in no position to help since 2022, and I assume they'll stay out of it unless HTS demands that they leave their base (which could end up as their equivalent of Guantanamo).
I’d imagine a lot of SAA officers see the writing on the wall and don’t want to die for Assad
That seems to be the calculation the junior commanders in charge of cities north of Damascus have already made.
I think the key here is that Hezbollah borked itself by going so hard at Israel. If they hadn't been engaged there and gotten wrecked, they might have been able to prop Assad up. Russia has also been in no position to help since 2022, and I assume they'll stay out of it unless HTS demands that they leave their base (which could end up as their equivalent of Guantanamo).
Hezbollah had a real opportunity to consolidate themselves in southern Lebanon with Israel otherwise occupied and didn’t take it