That's about where I am, but I might have the Senate around 30%. Tester's clearly trailing in the polls. Similarly, I think at this point Trump needs either a systematic polling error or a favorable October surprise. Pennsylvania isn't nearly as close as 538 says it is once you take out the GOP troll polls.
Partly because the allocation of votes per Congressional district now seems to tilt in favor of narrow Democratic victories in more places. It used to be that Democratic voters were so concentrated in cities that it greatly diluted their strength elsewhere. Now Republican voters are so concentrated in rural areas that it's diluting their strength in the suburbs at least as much. Add in the fact that places like Louisiana and Alabama are poised to get new Democratic members of Congress and I think House control is as much or even more of a coin flip than Harris winning.
I'll go higher:
WH: 70%
House: 75%
Senate: 40%
That's about where I am, but I might have the Senate around 30%. Tester's clearly trailing in the polls. Similarly, I think at this point Trump needs either a systematic polling error or a favorable October surprise. Pennsylvania isn't nearly as close as 538 says it is once you take out the GOP troll polls.
WH: 45%
House: 50%
Senate: 2%
Why does everyone think a House flip is more likely than a presidential victory? Strictly because of the Electoral College?
Partly because the allocation of votes per Congressional district now seems to tilt in favor of narrow Democratic victories in more places. It used to be that Democratic voters were so concentrated in cities that it greatly diluted their strength elsewhere. Now Republican voters are so concentrated in rural areas that it's diluting their strength in the suburbs at least as much. Add in the fact that places like Louisiana and Alabama are poised to get new Democratic members of Congress and I think House control is as much or even more of a coin flip than Harris winning.
yes