Partly because the allocation of votes per Congressional district now seems to tilt in favor of narrow Democratic victories in more places. It used to be that Democratic voters were so concentrated in cities that it greatly diluted their strength elsewhere. Now Republican voters are so concentrated in rural areas that it's diluting their strength in the suburbs at least as much. Add in the fact that places like Louisiana and Alabama are poised to get new Democratic members of Congress and I think House control is as much or even more of a coin flip than Harris winning.
WH: 45%
House: 50%
Senate: 2%
Why does everyone think a House flip is more likely than a presidential victory? Strictly because of the Electoral College?
Partly because the allocation of votes per Congressional district now seems to tilt in favor of narrow Democratic victories in more places. It used to be that Democratic voters were so concentrated in cities that it greatly diluted their strength elsewhere. Now Republican voters are so concentrated in rural areas that it's diluting their strength in the suburbs at least as much. Add in the fact that places like Louisiana and Alabama are poised to get new Democratic members of Congress and I think House control is as much or even more of a coin flip than Harris winning.
yes