What are the steps for Dems to start competing in FL. I am interested in the Maria Salazar, Laurel Lee, Aaron Bean, and Anna Paulina Luna seats. could atleast 2/4 be flips in 2026?
What are the steps for Dems to start competing in FL. I am interested in the Maria Salazar, Laurel Lee, Aaron Bean, and Anna Paulina Luna seats. could atleast 2/4 be flips in 2026?
Not to mention keeping away politicians who insist and insist and insist on calling themselves "socialists" in ANY form from the Democratic Party. People whose families fled Cuba and Venezuela don't want to hear it.
In a politically intelligent world, the DSA would rebrand itself as the SDA – the "Social Democrats of America". Just to be clear, regardless of their claims otherwise, both Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez are *Social Democrats* – and NOT socialists!
I completely agree with you on strategy, but since Sanders has never made clear what his ultimate goal or in other words, ideal society is, I don't think we know whether he ultimately wants to put the means of production of oligopolistic essential industries in the hands of a government that represents the people. Has AOC ever addressed whether she ultimately wants a society of from everyone according to their ability, to everyone according to their needs?
Fair enough. Let me express things in a more qualified manner: I have yet to see anything from Bernie or AOC as politicians that indicates they’re proposing concrete steps to implement a socialist society.
Naturally I cannot comment what they’re ultimate dream might be.
It would take an overhaul of the constitution and a system where government controls the economy in order to change the U.S. to a socialist society.
However, what Bernie and AOC are proposing in their agenda has primarily to do with the have and have nots as well as corporations not dictating who gets in power. Lots of synergy with what liberal Democrats have traditionally believed in. If Bernie and AOC's agenda is looked at as going to more of the extreme by those centrist and moderate types, then it's how they're selling it more than anything.
We already have a mixed economy which contains a market economy + social programs in place such as medicare and social security. A universal healthcare system, which will likely be the next real government social program pushed by the Democratic Party in its agenda, has been talked about by Bernie and AOC for a long time but in also citing Canada, UK, etc. as having such a system.
What do you mean a system where the government controls the economy? There is nothing in the constitution that dictates an economic system. All that it states is that people cannot deprived of property without due process and just compensation.
You are correct about everything. Command economies are where countries such as China, Cuba and Russia in the past or present control over their economies more and dictate the amount of supply. This is contingent of their own laws and systems.
However, I am referring to what it would take in order for the U.S. to have to change into a socialist country that the GOP thinks Bernie, AOC and others of their kind are arguing. The remaking of the U.S. Constitution + additional laws in place would need to completely shift the system away from true representative democracy and opportunity in order for a socialist system to be in place. There would need to be other factors such as dismantling current laws that allow a market-based economy. This would enable the U.S. to direct the economy where the government calls the shots as opposed to the citizens doing anything. The notion of all of what I am describing is improbable and not ever going to happen.
Point being, if Bernie and AOC are arguing their views and setting policy proposals, it’s got more to do with strengthening the economy so it works for everyone. They can also argue for how education, healthcare and housing should be human rights. However, any of their actual proposals legislation wise won’t be far off from how Medicare and Social Security were originally introduced.
I'd say that's more of an image and perception problem but whether we're talking about any Democratic Candidate or incumbent in office in FL, Democrats aren't doing a good job at being on the offensive in the state anyway.
Of course, there's also the disillusionment of the state becoming more red because of the influx of more conservative residents. On the other hand, when you have Annette Taddeo, Nikki Fried and Rep. Jared Moskowitz crying uncle over one of President Biden's last remaining decisions to compromise with Cuba over releasing of prisoners which has ZERO to do with appeasing socialism, that's FL Democrats shooting themselves in the foot.
It's primarily Cubans who are imprisoned and that's to do with protesting Cuba's government and how it's oppressing their ability to live and thrive in the country. Not Americans so much.
The Catholic Church and the Vatican have been involved in this for years now.
Oh ok. Dems do need to get better at SFL, but imo there is more growth opportunity in Jax and Tampa area with Bean, APL and Lee seats. They need to convince Charlie Christ to come back and run for his old seat vs APL lol.
Democrats did win the Jacksonville Mayoral Election back in 2023 by electing Donna Deegan so it's still possible. However, they need to do more just elect Mayors.
I don't know about Charlie Crist running for FL-13 again, especially considering it's a R+5 Lean Republican District now. His problem is that he cannot be counted on to stick to a political career path without it catapulting him further up the ladder.
Crist didn't even run for re-election as Governor back in 2010 but he also didn't run for re-election as Attorney General back in 2006. He did get elected to represent FL-13 back in 2016 by unseating David Jolly but then after serving three terms goes back to running for Governor again, a race he lost back in 2014. If he were elected to FL-13, how long would he serve?
Yeah, I think it was a mistake for Crist to run for Governor in 2022 and resign his House seat to focus on the race.
On the other hand, to my understanding FL-13 has moved more to the right since then. It's a Lean Republican District and could be winnable again but Crist would need a strong pull from independents and moderates (not just from Democrats) if he wants to unseat Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
I disagree, somewhat. I think it has mostly to do with Dems getting smacked with the latin folks, especially in SFL. Cause 2016 Hillary was very close like 3-5 pt race? And since then Dem votes in SFL has been decreasing while the population is increasing. I don’t know if they can be gotten back so I think focusing on Jax and Tampa area would be good.
It was actual 1pt in 2016. HRC actually got the highest % ever for a D in SEFL. Esp with Hispanic voters there.
If you follow Florida counties live turnout, you can see how many registered Rs and Ds and NPAs are voting real time. Throughout Nov 8th 2016, it became obvious that she had a hard time in Florida unless a disproportionate NPAs voting for her. When SEFL reported early votes, for a while it seemed she really could do the unthinkable of a Florida knockout blow.
Then came the massive smack-down around the exurbs around I4, and the two coasts.
The 2016 example is a good example of the problem though.
Clinton lost FL by ~1.5 points while winning the national popular vote by 2 points. Even with her being stronger with hispanic voters, she still lost the state. Then 2018 happens and our candidates fell short again. Nelson did about as well in Miami-Dade and Broward, as HRC, but he still lost. That's despite 2018 being a huge wave year for us nationally; the swing in the house popular vote from 2016 to 2018 is about ten points in our favor.
Our problem with Florida is that even putting up HRC-like numbers with non-whites in the state will still see us lose.
I think 2018 was the biggest L, because the Andrew Gillum is a clown. Someone else, literally anyone wins. Then they got power from there. Their redistricting is very unfair especially in Tampa and Jax area smh.
The issue in 2016 was that while latinos did not move right the midwest transplants did just like their cousins back in Iowa. The fact that Nelson lost in freakin 2018 was a sign that things weren't going good down there. Now every demographic has zoomed right.
What are the steps for Dems to start competing in FL. I am interested in the Maria Salazar, Laurel Lee, Aaron Bean, and Anna Paulina Luna seats. could atleast 2/4 be flips in 2026?
Turning out Democratic voters is the starting point. The past two elections have been abysmal turnout.
FL Democrats cannot win again if this problem isn’t corrected.
Not to mention keeping away politicians who insist and insist and insist on calling themselves "socialists" in ANY form from the Democratic Party. People whose families fled Cuba and Venezuela don't want to hear it.
In a politically intelligent world, the DSA would rebrand itself as the SDA – the "Social Democrats of America". Just to be clear, regardless of their claims otherwise, both Bernie Sanders and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez are *Social Democrats* – and NOT socialists!
I completely agree with you on strategy, but since Sanders has never made clear what his ultimate goal or in other words, ideal society is, I don't think we know whether he ultimately wants to put the means of production of oligopolistic essential industries in the hands of a government that represents the people. Has AOC ever addressed whether she ultimately wants a society of from everyone according to their ability, to everyone according to their needs?
Fair enough. Let me express things in a more qualified manner: I have yet to see anything from Bernie or AOC as politicians that indicates they’re proposing concrete steps to implement a socialist society.
Naturally I cannot comment what they’re ultimate dream might be.
It would take an overhaul of the constitution and a system where government controls the economy in order to change the U.S. to a socialist society.
However, what Bernie and AOC are proposing in their agenda has primarily to do with the have and have nots as well as corporations not dictating who gets in power. Lots of synergy with what liberal Democrats have traditionally believed in. If Bernie and AOC's agenda is looked at as going to more of the extreme by those centrist and moderate types, then it's how they're selling it more than anything.
We already have a mixed economy which contains a market economy + social programs in place such as medicare and social security. A universal healthcare system, which will likely be the next real government social program pushed by the Democratic Party in its agenda, has been talked about by Bernie and AOC for a long time but in also citing Canada, UK, etc. as having such a system.
What do you mean a system where the government controls the economy? There is nothing in the constitution that dictates an economic system. All that it states is that people cannot deprived of property without due process and just compensation.
You are correct about everything. Command economies are where countries such as China, Cuba and Russia in the past or present control over their economies more and dictate the amount of supply. This is contingent of their own laws and systems.
However, I am referring to what it would take in order for the U.S. to have to change into a socialist country that the GOP thinks Bernie, AOC and others of their kind are arguing. The remaking of the U.S. Constitution + additional laws in place would need to completely shift the system away from true representative democracy and opportunity in order for a socialist system to be in place. There would need to be other factors such as dismantling current laws that allow a market-based economy. This would enable the U.S. to direct the economy where the government calls the shots as opposed to the citizens doing anything. The notion of all of what I am describing is improbable and not ever going to happen.
Point being, if Bernie and AOC are arguing their views and setting policy proposals, it’s got more to do with strengthening the economy so it works for everyone. They can also argue for how education, healthcare and housing should be human rights. However, any of their actual proposals legislation wise won’t be far off from how Medicare and Social Security were originally introduced.
Do any Democrats who run in Florida call themselves socialists?
I'd say that's more of an image and perception problem but whether we're talking about any Democratic Candidate or incumbent in office in FL, Democrats aren't doing a good job at being on the offensive in the state anyway.
Of course, there's also the disillusionment of the state becoming more red because of the influx of more conservative residents. On the other hand, when you have Annette Taddeo, Nikki Fried and Rep. Jared Moskowitz crying uncle over one of President Biden's last remaining decisions to compromise with Cuba over releasing of prisoners which has ZERO to do with appeasing socialism, that's FL Democrats shooting themselves in the foot.
Could you explain, why does Cuba have American prisoners?
It's primarily Cubans who are imprisoned and that's to do with protesting Cuba's government and how it's oppressing their ability to live and thrive in the country. Not Americans so much.
The Catholic Church and the Vatican have been involved in this for years now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8edw201jx6o
Oh ok. Dems do need to get better at SFL, but imo there is more growth opportunity in Jax and Tampa area with Bean, APL and Lee seats. They need to convince Charlie Christ to come back and run for his old seat vs APL lol.
Democrats did win the Jacksonville Mayoral Election back in 2023 by electing Donna Deegan so it's still possible. However, they need to do more just elect Mayors.
I don't know about Charlie Crist running for FL-13 again, especially considering it's a R+5 Lean Republican District now. His problem is that he cannot be counted on to stick to a political career path without it catapulting him further up the ladder.
Crist didn't even run for re-election as Governor back in 2010 but he also didn't run for re-election as Attorney General back in 2006. He did get elected to represent FL-13 back in 2016 by unseating David Jolly but then after serving three terms goes back to running for Governor again, a race he lost back in 2014. If he were elected to FL-13, how long would he serve?
I think he would stay there for good, considering he doesnt have any pull statewide at all.
Yeah, I think it was a mistake for Crist to run for Governor in 2022 and resign his House seat to focus on the race.
On the other hand, to my understanding FL-13 has moved more to the right since then. It's a Lean Republican District and could be winnable again but Crist would need a strong pull from independents and moderates (not just from Democrats) if he wants to unseat Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
Somehow we have been talking about the party losing WWC voters since mid 2010s. Guess which state has the largest WWC voter pool?
I disagree, somewhat. I think it has mostly to do with Dems getting smacked with the latin folks, especially in SFL. Cause 2016 Hillary was very close like 3-5 pt race? And since then Dem votes in SFL has been decreasing while the population is increasing. I don’t know if they can be gotten back so I think focusing on Jax and Tampa area would be good.
It was actual 1pt in 2016. HRC actually got the highest % ever for a D in SEFL. Esp with Hispanic voters there.
If you follow Florida counties live turnout, you can see how many registered Rs and Ds and NPAs are voting real time. Throughout Nov 8th 2016, it became obvious that she had a hard time in Florida unless a disproportionate NPAs voting for her. When SEFL reported early votes, for a while it seemed she really could do the unthinkable of a Florida knockout blow.
Then came the massive smack-down around the exurbs around I4, and the two coasts.
The 2016 example is a good example of the problem though.
Clinton lost FL by ~1.5 points while winning the national popular vote by 2 points. Even with her being stronger with hispanic voters, she still lost the state. Then 2018 happens and our candidates fell short again. Nelson did about as well in Miami-Dade and Broward, as HRC, but he still lost. That's despite 2018 being a huge wave year for us nationally; the swing in the house popular vote from 2016 to 2018 is about ten points in our favor.
Our problem with Florida is that even putting up HRC-like numbers with non-whites in the state will still see us lose.
I think 2018 was the biggest L, because the Andrew Gillum is a clown. Someone else, literally anyone wins. Then they got power from there. Their redistricting is very unfair especially in Tampa and Jax area smh.
The issue in 2016 was that while latinos did not move right the midwest transplants did just like their cousins back in Iowa. The fact that Nelson lost in freakin 2018 was a sign that things weren't going good down there. Now every demographic has zoomed right.
Ohio or Florida?!
Florida.
Florida had 8.5m white active voters registered last Nov. (That is pretty much the full pool of Ohio) Around 2/3 ~ 70% are WWC.
In sheer size of all eligible voters, California and Texas may have more WWC voters. But not necessarily in the actual voters turned out.
https://open.substack.com/pub/mcimaps/p/issue-234-looking-at-2024-partisan?r=3t7cxe&utm_medium=ios
What does the Dem bench look like in FL? Are there any good local officials or state legislators?