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Vishnu's avatar

I disagree, somewhat. I think it has mostly to do with Dems getting smacked with the latin folks, especially in SFL. Cause 2016 Hillary was very close like 3-5 pt race? And since then Dem votes in SFL has been decreasing while the population is increasing. I don’t know if they can be gotten back so I think focusing on Jax and Tampa area would be good.

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axlee's avatar

It was actual 1pt in 2016. HRC actually got the highest % ever for a D in SEFL. Esp with Hispanic voters there.

If you follow Florida counties live turnout, you can see how many registered Rs and Ds and NPAs are voting real time. Throughout Nov 8th 2016, it became obvious that she had a hard time in Florida unless a disproportionate NPAs voting for her. When SEFL reported early votes, for a while it seemed she really could do the unthinkable of a Florida knockout blow.

Then came the massive smack-down around the exurbs around I4, and the two coasts.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

The 2016 example is a good example of the problem though.

Clinton lost FL by ~1.5 points while winning the national popular vote by 2 points. Even with her being stronger with hispanic voters, she still lost the state. Then 2018 happens and our candidates fell short again. Nelson did about as well in Miami-Dade and Broward, as HRC, but he still lost. That's despite 2018 being a huge wave year for us nationally; the swing in the house popular vote from 2016 to 2018 is about ten points in our favor.

Our problem with Florida is that even putting up HRC-like numbers with non-whites in the state will still see us lose.

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Vishnu's avatar

I think 2018 was the biggest L, because the Andrew Gillum is a clown. Someone else, literally anyone wins. Then they got power from there. Their redistricting is very unfair especially in Tampa and Jax area smh.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

The issue in 2016 was that while latinos did not move right the midwest transplants did just like their cousins back in Iowa. The fact that Nelson lost in freakin 2018 was a sign that things weren't going good down there. Now every demographic has zoomed right.

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