Less than or equal to 139 million, as that's what he raised for the entire month of July, which overlapped with all 4 days of the RNC. 139 million is a respectable hall in relative terms, it's just that Harris has blown the records out of the water, so it doesn't look as impressive.
Although POS usually biases a bit red, Montana is the only D-held seat (other than WV) where we've been consistently behind in polls across the board. Tester's previously won in very good D years, and Montana's redder now. Maybe, he can eek it out with help from the abortion referendum. But it's an uphill climb.
For Senate contributions, I'm prioritizing Mucarsel-Powell, Brown and Allred. Tester has plenty of money for a small state. Last I looked, Mucarsel-Powell seemed like the one who needed the money in a very expensive state and a very rich opponent.
Tester is definitely the underdog at this stage in the game especially if all the new arrivals that came after Covid lean rightward rather than liberals from California looking for cheaper housing with a mountain or two in their backyard.
Tester needs more help than any other Democrat in the country in my opinion. If anyone on here is from Montana or knows anyone from there, on the ground organizing goes a long way. Will come down to turnout. Republicans for Tester is real and growing, hope it's enough. All the major newspapers endorse him for reelection this year same as 2018 as he's the hardest-working member of the delegation by a country mile!! 💙🇺🇲
According to The New York Times, Hofeller's "mastery of redistricting strategy helped propel the Republican Party from underdog to the dominant force in state legislatures and the United States House of Representatives."
In the 1980s, he was behind a strategy to increase Republican power in the South by using the 1965 Voting Rights Act to create more majority-black districts and thus pack African-Americans into fewer districts and make it easier for Republican candidates to win the remaining white districts.
I guess I'll go first! DavidNYC, born and raised New Yorker, lifelong Upper East Sider, perpetually disappointed Mets fan, cocktail enthusiast (making and drinking), and hopeless election nerd. Hello, everyone!
Hey! Haven't commented for a long time and probably won't be a regular commenter in the future, but I was around pretty regularly in the SSP and early DKE days. Excited to see what fun new things you'll do at your new home.
Hi all! I haven't hung around in the comments for a while, but I've had lots of usernames over the years. My time in the DKE comments helped inspire a lot of different research interests, which ultimately led to legal scholarship on election and state constitutional law, and then into academia! I owe a lot to this community, and I'm excited about its new home.
Darth Jeff, born and raised in Silicon Valley (in an actual way, not an Elon way), college in New Orleans, now live in Boston. Pub trivia player, Trekkie, person who listens to audiobooks at 3X speed while on long walks. I also defend a lot of film and TV antagonists in my spare time.
Also, I’m probably not alone here in being obsessed with the works of Robert Caro. I may be alone here, though, in having a poster of Robert Caro hanging right next to my desk.
My greatest fear in life might be that Caro dies before finishing that last volume. I will buy it off Amazon the day it is released and probably not leave the house until finished.
Hi all! I've been happily collecting elections data and making maps for twenty years now. I'm a sucker for cat pictures and creative data visualizations. I'm generally pretty quiet in the comments, but I do read them. I'm so excited to see how successful this first week of The Downballot has been!
Hey everyone! I'm born, raised and currently live on Long Island (with 6 year interlude in New Jersey for college/post college life). Followed Presidential elections casually since 2000, and all elections intensely since 2006. The (second) Iraq War was a pivotal moment in my political awakening as a liberal/lefty as a teenager. I would just watch GWB smirk his way through a press conference on TV and think "Who actually buys this crap? Like, where do they live where enough people think like this that this joker could win the Presidency?" Which led to a crash course in political geography I still find endlessly fascinating, since it's always evolving.
Hey All! I was known ad DanteDFL on DKE but havent lived in MN in years so am using the switch as an opportunity to change to DanteTheDem. Originally from Syracuse NY I've lived all over the US (including California and Minnesota, which means i've been lucky enough to vote for both Harris and Walz for state level offices!) usually a lurker but try to comment every once in a while. Looking forward to more of the same excellent elections coverage I've become accustomed to since i first started reading DKE in 2012
Greetings! I'm AWildLibAppeared. I live in Southern California and have been following the Daily Kos Elections blog for almost a decade. Initially after college, I worked in political organizing, but then realized I was someone who actually liked the stability of a humdrum 9-to-5 job. Thus, I did a career change to something something corporate America.
Because I do work with some more conservative-minded individuals who might not love all my thoughts on politics, I have preferred to maintain my anonymity on Daily Kos, and I'm continuing to do so here. However, I will divulge that I have on-and-off engaged in local politics where I've lived, and I always try to help out campaigns come election season, which is what brought me to DKE initially. I've found the information that DKE/The Downballot publishes to be invaluable, and I've also greatly appreciated the perspectives and insights of commenters in the community. Very happy to see that this transition to Substack has gone well!
ehstronghold checking in here! I've been part of the SSP community since high school (2009) when I discovered a diary about the 2010 Senate elections. That diary was overly optimistic vs. the election results in 2010. I've lived my entire life in the San Francisco Bay Area and have witnessed the rise of Kamala Harris' career from when she was DA in San Francisco to hopefully come January, the 47th President of the United States.
I hope this next chapter in the SSP story is as successful as the first two chapters. May fortune favor the bold as they say.
OK, I guess I'll do this. mejDB. After about a year of lurking on DKos I signed up as mej. Then went back to mostly lurking for 20 years, only occasionally chiming in. As a scientist who teaches research methods and some stats, I early on read about or even actively 'de-skewed' polls - before deciding it wasn't (usually) useful. One of the sections I most enjoyed at DK were the Elections and Morning Digests, so naturally I migrated over here. I followed the discussion of DNC (and more!) all week, and enjoyed live-commenting on it last night. I look forward to riding this roller coaster for the next 75 days, and hopefully will bask along in celebration for a while after that. I live outside Chicago these days (just most of the last 30 years); moved around a bunch before that but mostly grew up in NewEngland - but enjoy hearing local input from all over.
Dgoodmantrublu. Democratic political consultant who mostly works on state and local races, though a few congressionals. I am originally from NY and live in Maryland. NY sports fan-Giants, Knicks, Yankees. Been reading great content here since the Swing State Project days.
It's so peculiar reading the self-descriptions of folk whom I've followed for years now.
Hey y'all. Long time lurker and reader since 2017 when I wanted to find down ballot information that also was interdisciplinary and not just resistance-lib content, and now a first-time commenter. I'm a Houston born, but Chicago raised chemist that likes to do the physical sciences for work and do the social sciences for my hobbies. Fifth generation educator here (though I am presently in the private sector after defending my dissertation) where all the women (and some of the men) in my family (that weren't from WV as they were already devout democrats) became democrats thanks to the incredible Ann Richards. Now I'm the political and election resource for not only my family, but also my friends and coworkers (though I make sure that they ask me for help first and I try to come off as nonpartisan).
When I'm not working or disappearing down some political research hole, I'm a Trekkie (sci-fi is probably my favorite artistic genre), enjoy cooking new dishes with my mom, exploring new musicians and genres of music, and enjoying the company of the wonderful friend-network I've cultivated here in the windy city.
Less than or equal to 139 million, as that's what he raised for the entire month of July, which overlapped with all 4 days of the RNC. 139 million is a respectable hall in relative terms, it's just that Harris has blown the records out of the water, so it doesn't look as impressive.
POS is an R pollster and has usually leaned R in past cycles. They aren't as ridiculous as Ras, Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, or McLaughlin.
Although POS usually biases a bit red, Montana is the only D-held seat (other than WV) where we've been consistently behind in polls across the board. Tester's previously won in very good D years, and Montana's redder now. Maybe, he can eek it out with help from the abortion referendum. But it's an uphill climb.
For Senate contributions, I'm prioritizing Mucarsel-Powell, Brown and Allred. Tester has plenty of money for a small state. Last I looked, Mucarsel-Powell seemed like the one who needed the money in a very expensive state and a very rich opponent.
Tester is definitely the underdog at this stage in the game especially if all the new arrivals that came after Covid lean rightward rather than liberals from California looking for cheaper housing with a mountain or two in their backyard.
wishing we had more and better polling from MT..I don't trust POS at all
Tester needs more help than any other Democrat in the country in my opinion. If anyone on here is from Montana or knows anyone from there, on the ground organizing goes a long way. Will come down to turnout. Republicans for Tester is real and growing, hope it's enough. All the major newspapers endorse him for reelection this year same as 2018 as he's the hardest-working member of the delegation by a country mile!! 💙🇺🇲
Imho, Jon Tester should invite Tim Walz to join him on the campaign trail. Walz speaks the common-sense language of Montanans.
Yeah, I think you may be the only Democrat inspired by Tom Hofeller: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Hofeller
According to The New York Times, Hofeller's "mastery of redistricting strategy helped propel the Republican Party from underdog to the dominant force in state legislatures and the United States House of Representatives."
In the 1980s, he was behind a strategy to increase Republican power in the South by using the 1965 Voting Rights Act to create more majority-black districts and thus pack African-Americans into fewer districts and make it easier for Republican candidates to win the remaining white districts.
I believe abgin would approve!
I guess I'll go first! DavidNYC, born and raised New Yorker, lifelong Upper East Sider, perpetually disappointed Mets fan, cocktail enthusiast (making and drinking), and hopeless election nerd. Hello, everyone!
Hey! Haven't commented for a long time and probably won't be a regular commenter in the future, but I was around pretty regularly in the SSP and early DKE days. Excited to see what fun new things you'll do at your new home.
Twohundertseventy, is that you?
Yes!
Hi all! I haven't hung around in the comments for a while, but I've had lots of usernames over the years. My time in the DKE comments helped inspire a lot of different research interests, which ultimately led to legal scholarship on election and state constitutional law, and then into academia! I owe a lot to this community, and I'm excited about its new home.
Darth Jeff, born and raised in Silicon Valley (in an actual way, not an Elon way), college in New Orleans, now live in Boston. Pub trivia player, Trekkie, person who listens to audiobooks at 3X speed while on long walks. I also defend a lot of film and TV antagonists in my spare time.
Also, I’m probably not alone here in being obsessed with the works of Robert Caro. I may be alone here, though, in having a poster of Robert Caro hanging right next to my desk.
My greatest fear in life might be that Caro dies before finishing that last volume. I will buy it off Amazon the day it is released and probably not leave the house until finished.
LBJ was my deceased father's favourite President.
If I ever saw Caro in the wild I think I’d run to avoid risking any chance of getting him sick.
I didn't know these things about you. Defend how?
I make all sorts of arguments on why, for example, Scar from the Lion King is the true hero.
Hi all! I've been happily collecting elections data and making maps for twenty years now. I'm a sucker for cat pictures and creative data visualizations. I'm generally pretty quiet in the comments, but I do read them. I'm so excited to see how successful this first week of The Downballot has been!
First elections map I released into the wild was Bush approval ratings!
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2005/11/18/166070/-
Hey everyone! I'm born, raised and currently live on Long Island (with 6 year interlude in New Jersey for college/post college life). Followed Presidential elections casually since 2000, and all elections intensely since 2006. The (second) Iraq War was a pivotal moment in my political awakening as a liberal/lefty as a teenager. I would just watch GWB smirk his way through a press conference on TV and think "Who actually buys this crap? Like, where do they live where enough people think like this that this joker could win the Presidency?" Which led to a crash course in political geography I still find endlessly fascinating, since it's always evolving.
I went to grad school at Stony Brook, so I have lived on Long Island, though I maintained my New York City voting residence while I was there.
Hey All! I was known ad DanteDFL on DKE but havent lived in MN in years so am using the switch as an opportunity to change to DanteTheDem. Originally from Syracuse NY I've lived all over the US (including California and Minnesota, which means i've been lucky enough to vote for both Harris and Walz for state level offices!) usually a lurker but try to comment every once in a while. Looking forward to more of the same excellent elections coverage I've become accustomed to since i first started reading DKE in 2012
Greetings! I'm AWildLibAppeared. I live in Southern California and have been following the Daily Kos Elections blog for almost a decade. Initially after college, I worked in political organizing, but then realized I was someone who actually liked the stability of a humdrum 9-to-5 job. Thus, I did a career change to something something corporate America.
Because I do work with some more conservative-minded individuals who might not love all my thoughts on politics, I have preferred to maintain my anonymity on Daily Kos, and I'm continuing to do so here. However, I will divulge that I have on-and-off engaged in local politics where I've lived, and I always try to help out campaigns come election season, which is what brought me to DKE initially. I've found the information that DKE/The Downballot publishes to be invaluable, and I've also greatly appreciated the perspectives and insights of commenters in the community. Very happy to see that this transition to Substack has gone well!
ehstronghold checking in here! I've been part of the SSP community since high school (2009) when I discovered a diary about the 2010 Senate elections. That diary was overly optimistic vs. the election results in 2010. I've lived my entire life in the San Francisco Bay Area and have witnessed the rise of Kamala Harris' career from when she was DA in San Francisco to hopefully come January, the 47th President of the United States.
I hope this next chapter in the SSP story is as successful as the first two chapters. May fortune favor the bold as they say.
I didn’t know till now you were also from the Bay Area (and unlike me stayed)!
OK, I guess I'll do this. mejDB. After about a year of lurking on DKos I signed up as mej. Then went back to mostly lurking for 20 years, only occasionally chiming in. As a scientist who teaches research methods and some stats, I early on read about or even actively 'de-skewed' polls - before deciding it wasn't (usually) useful. One of the sections I most enjoyed at DK were the Elections and Morning Digests, so naturally I migrated over here. I followed the discussion of DNC (and more!) all week, and enjoyed live-commenting on it last night. I look forward to riding this roller coaster for the next 75 days, and hopefully will bask along in celebration for a while after that. I live outside Chicago these days (just most of the last 30 years); moved around a bunch before that but mostly grew up in NewEngland - but enjoy hearing local input from all over.
Dgoodmantrublu. Democratic political consultant who mostly works on state and local races, though a few congressionals. I am originally from NY and live in Maryland. NY sports fan-Giants, Knicks, Yankees. Been reading great content here since the Swing State Project days.
It's so peculiar reading the self-descriptions of folk whom I've followed for years now.
Hey y'all. Long time lurker and reader since 2017 when I wanted to find down ballot information that also was interdisciplinary and not just resistance-lib content, and now a first-time commenter. I'm a Houston born, but Chicago raised chemist that likes to do the physical sciences for work and do the social sciences for my hobbies. Fifth generation educator here (though I am presently in the private sector after defending my dissertation) where all the women (and some of the men) in my family (that weren't from WV as they were already devout democrats) became democrats thanks to the incredible Ann Richards. Now I'm the political and election resource for not only my family, but also my friends and coworkers (though I make sure that they ask me for help first and I try to come off as nonpartisan).
When I'm not working or disappearing down some political research hole, I'm a Trekkie (sci-fi is probably my favorite artistic genre), enjoy cooking new dishes with my mom, exploring new musicians and genres of music, and enjoying the company of the wonderful friend-network I've cultivated here in the windy city.
Swing State Project!!! Those were fun times
Jlgarsh