Per the Census, Women make up of 49% of MT residents. If 38% of MT voters casting votes for Tester are women, he’d just need a minimum of 13% of men to vote for him and he wins re-election to the Senate.
Of course, there can be other hypotheticals that can apply.
I'm not sure I agree with your math; and I completely disagree with you on nationalizing that race; clearly Tester knows that state better than any poster here
Nationalizing the MT-Race isn’t exactly what I’m arguing here. I also didn’t exactly explain my reasoning to begin with.
I’m mainly concerned that Tester isn’t getting enough support outside of MT. Financial and grassroots support is more important but the second the DSCC and PAC committees start flooding the airwaves with Washington insider messaging, then Tester’s campaign will get the attacks from the Sheehy camp of being too tied to Washington. Agreed regarding Tester knowing MT better than any pollster.
As for the math, here’s what I’m referring to regarding the Census data:
Unfortunately, the population gender demographics that are cited in the Census are not added together so you can see the total population in each. You have to add each set of data by age date (both for men and women). As it turns out, the 49% women data may not be completely accurate when it comes to voters as there are women aged younger than 18 who are represented. It might be anywhere from 46% to 47% but I’ll take a look when I get home and perhaps put more hypotheticals to consider.
I'm interested in what numbers you come up with; however, all things considered, Tester so far, is running one helluva race, considering what's being thrown at him
I agree on Tester's MT-SEN race. It's also telling that he led by five % points in one poll but that somehow Sheehy seems to be leading him by single digits in multiple other polls. I think the hype of Sheehy's candidacy doesn't really have much in the way of substance, which is why Tester is going to benefit from having run a disciplined campaign.
Anyway, regarding the population voting hypotheticals, as it turns out I was way off on the % of female voters. Per the Census, there's 38% women residents living in Montana not including residents 18 or younger (the Census has strange intervals for its calculations). Naturally, if there are 18 year old women voting Tester will get support from handfulls of such voters.
If we look at the following hypotheticals for Tester winning based on the Census data:
32% women
19% men
30% women
21% men
27% women
24% men
Tester running on the pro-choice measure on the ballot will help him with women voters in the state. He doesn't need the majority of men voters in MT in order to win.
Have Tester and Walz do televised skeet shooting competitions.
I’m guessing Tester wants to distance himself from the national ticket to get the crossover support he needs.
I’m not sure why he would do this.
Per the Census, Women make up of 49% of MT residents. If 38% of MT voters casting votes for Tester are women, he’d just need a minimum of 13% of men to vote for him and he wins re-election to the Senate.
Of course, there can be other hypotheticals that can apply.
What does that have to do with anything? He is doing it because he will lose unless he gets substantial support from Trump voters.
I'm not sure I agree with your math; and I completely disagree with you on nationalizing that race; clearly Tester knows that state better than any poster here
Hold on for a second here.
Nationalizing the MT-Race isn’t exactly what I’m arguing here. I also didn’t exactly explain my reasoning to begin with.
I’m mainly concerned that Tester isn’t getting enough support outside of MT. Financial and grassroots support is more important but the second the DSCC and PAC committees start flooding the airwaves with Washington insider messaging, then Tester’s campaign will get the attacks from the Sheehy camp of being too tied to Washington. Agreed regarding Tester knowing MT better than any pollster.
As for the math, here’s what I’m referring to regarding the Census data:
https://data.census.gov/profile/Montana?g=040XX00US30
Unfortunately, the population gender demographics that are cited in the Census are not added together so you can see the total population in each. You have to add each set of data by age date (both for men and women). As it turns out, the 49% women data may not be completely accurate when it comes to voters as there are women aged younger than 18 who are represented. It might be anywhere from 46% to 47% but I’ll take a look when I get home and perhaps put more hypotheticals to consider.
I'm interested in what numbers you come up with; however, all things considered, Tester so far, is running one helluva race, considering what's being thrown at him
I agree on Tester's MT-SEN race. It's also telling that he led by five % points in one poll but that somehow Sheehy seems to be leading him by single digits in multiple other polls. I think the hype of Sheehy's candidacy doesn't really have much in the way of substance, which is why Tester is going to benefit from having run a disciplined campaign.
Anyway, regarding the population voting hypotheticals, as it turns out I was way off on the % of female voters. Per the Census, there's 38% women residents living in Montana not including residents 18 or younger (the Census has strange intervals for its calculations). Naturally, if there are 18 year old women voting Tester will get support from handfulls of such voters.
If we look at the following hypotheticals for Tester winning based on the Census data:
32% women
19% men
30% women
21% men
27% women
24% men
Tester running on the pro-choice measure on the ballot will help him with women voters in the state. He doesn't need the majority of men voters in MT in order to win.