I'm interested in what numbers you come up with; however, all things considered, Tester so far, is running one helluva race, considering what's being thrown at him
I'm interested in what numbers you come up with; however, all things considered, Tester so far, is running one helluva race, considering what's being thrown at him
I agree on Tester's MT-SEN race. It's also telling that he led by five % points in one poll but that somehow Sheehy seems to be leading him by single digits in multiple other polls. I think the hype of Sheehy's candidacy doesn't really have much in the way of substance, which is why Tester is going to benefit from having run a disciplined campaign.
Anyway, regarding the population voting hypotheticals, as it turns out I was way off on the % of female voters. Per the Census, there's 38% women residents living in Montana not including residents 18 or younger (the Census has strange intervals for its calculations). Naturally, if there are 18 year old women voting Tester will get support from handfulls of such voters.
If we look at the following hypotheticals for Tester winning based on the Census data:
32% women
19% men
30% women
21% men
27% women
24% men
Tester running on the pro-choice measure on the ballot will help him with women voters in the state. He doesn't need the majority of men voters in MT in order to win.
I'm interested in what numbers you come up with; however, all things considered, Tester so far, is running one helluva race, considering what's being thrown at him
I agree on Tester's MT-SEN race. It's also telling that he led by five % points in one poll but that somehow Sheehy seems to be leading him by single digits in multiple other polls. I think the hype of Sheehy's candidacy doesn't really have much in the way of substance, which is why Tester is going to benefit from having run a disciplined campaign.
Anyway, regarding the population voting hypotheticals, as it turns out I was way off on the % of female voters. Per the Census, there's 38% women residents living in Montana not including residents 18 or younger (the Census has strange intervals for its calculations). Naturally, if there are 18 year old women voting Tester will get support from handfulls of such voters.
If we look at the following hypotheticals for Tester winning based on the Census data:
32% women
19% men
30% women
21% men
27% women
24% men
Tester running on the pro-choice measure on the ballot will help him with women voters in the state. He doesn't need the majority of men voters in MT in order to win.