The biggest primary night of the year is here
We preview more than 30 races across the country, from California to New Jersey
Tuesday is the biggest night of the 2026 primary season, with six states—including the nation’s largest—on tap. Below, you’ll find our guide to the top races to watch from coast to coast.
The first round of the race to succeed California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who cannot seek a third term, has attracted by far the most attention. While Democrats have long feared that the state’s unusual top-two primary system might allow two Republicans to lock them out of the general election, recent polls show that Democrats could end up securing both slots in November’s showdown.
This will also be the first time the Golden State uses its new Democratic-drawn congressional map, which voters approved last November to counter the Republican gerrymandering drive that began in Texas.
Thanks to the revised boundaries, many incumbents are running in constituencies that feature significantly altered territory—and in some cases a different number—compared to the districts they were last elected to serve.
And as per usual, it may be a while before California’s contests are fully decided. Vote-counting takes some time thanks to the security measures needed to verify the large number of mail ballots officials receive. Newsom signed new laws last year aimed at speeding up the process, but many races will still be in doubt on Wednesday morning and potentially longer.
But California doesn’t have the night to itself. Voters in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will also pick nominees in a broad array of important races, though they’ll all use traditional partisan primaries.
When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
You can also find interactive congressional district maps from Dave’s Redistricting App for California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico linked to each state’s name just above. (The entire state of South Dakota is home to a single at-large district.)
The first polls close at 8 PM ET in New Jersey and the portion of South Dakota located in the Central Time Zone.
And please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night!
California
Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.
All candidates running for Congress and for state office compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries; the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 3 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in June by taking a majority of the vote, except in special elections and some officially nonpartisan elections.
CA-Gov (58-38 Harris)
After a race defined by extreme volatility, two Democrats and one Republican appear to have a strong shot to secure one of the two spots in the general election for California’s open governorship.
The frontrunners are former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who went on to serve as secretary of Health and Human Services under Joe Biden; billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for president in 2020; and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate.
Becerra resisted calls to drop out of the race over the winter as Democrats feared that their large field would allow two Republicans—Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco—to move on to November and thereby automatically flip the governor’s office. (California does not allow write-ins in the general election.)
But everything changed in April, starting with Trump’s decision to get behind Hilton, a move that swiftly deflated Bianco’s bid. Just a week later, Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who had been one of the leading candidates, ended his campaign and resigned from Congress after multiple women accused him of sexual assault.
Becerra, who would be the first Latino to lead California since the 19th century, rapidly catapulted from also-ran to frontrunner, and his new status quickly made him a target.
His most formidable foe is Steyer, who has spent an eye-popping $200 million on advertising. Steyer, though, has also been on the receiving end of attack ads from a group funded by real estate developers, building trade unions, and the utility giant PG&E.
An average of all public polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne shows Hilton in first with 22.2% as Becerra edges out Steyer 21.6 to 19.4 for the crucial second-place spot. Bianco is in fourth place with 12%, with two Democrats a bit further back: former Rep. Katie Porter, a prominent progressive who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in 2024; and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a centrist candidate who has received extensive support from groups funded by the tech sector.
Two more Democrats, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, have earned minimal support in the polls.
CA-01 (special) (61-36 Trump)
Races in both the old and new versions of the 1st Congressional District in northeastern California are on Tuesday’s ballot, but the dynamics are starkly different in both contests.
After Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa died in January, GOP Assemblymember James Gallagher became the favorite to win the five-person special election for the remainder of the late congressman’s term.
Trump, who has endorsed Gallagher, and other GOP leaders are hoping the assemblyman can win the majority of the vote he needs to win outright and give Republicans another vote in the narrowly divided House.
A pair of Democrats seeking a full term in the new-look 1st (more on that primary just below) are also running in the special for the previous iteration, which is much more conservative. State Sen. Mike McGuire and agriculture consultant Audrey Denney are hoping to at least force Gallagher into a second round of voting on Aug. 4. One little-known Republican and an independent are also on the ballot.
CA-01 (54-42 Harris)
Gallagher is the only Republican running for a full term representing the new 1st District, but while he’s likely to advance to the general, he’ll be the underdog in the fall in a constituency that Democrats dramatically overhauled and made much bluer.
