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Paleo's avatar

Monmouth national poll:

Harris 47-44 with RVs. Harris 51-46 with "extremely motivated" voters.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_102324/

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DiesIrae's avatar

Those are nice numbers, made nicer by the fact that they weight on 2020 vote (which as has been discussed could push things artificially to the right.)

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sacman701's avatar

My prior is that weighting on 2020 vote favors Dems in FL and SC (where no one is polling) and the GOP almost everywhere else. In most states I think demographic creep would favor Dems, as 18-21 year olds and other newly eligible voters (young workers moving in, naturalized immigrants, etc) would lean blue and subtractions from the electorate (people dying or retirees leaving the state) would lean red. FL and to a lesser extent SC are big magnets for right-wing retirees and have probably added many more R than D voters. The states where I would expect demographic creep to favor Dems the most are GA and TX.

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Henrik's avatar

I agree

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IggySD's avatar

Not sure about SC, yeah there is an influx of retirees, especially in the Grand Strand area, but there is also decent manufacturing growth with the BMW, Volvo, and Boeing plants as well as some Google data centers. Additionally, I think it was a popular destination for relocation at the beginning of the decade when WFH really took off. I’m in Berkeley County, near Charleston where there is still a significant housing boom and it’s not retirees moving in.

I think there are countervailing trends and my suspicion is that growth in the Low Country and Charlotte suburbs will slightly outpace the growth in Myrtle Beach / Horry County and the state will continue to (slowly) trend blue. Additionally, a lot of the red rural counties are losing population and I don’t think there are still significant Demasaurs around that haven’t switched yet. Upstate area is a wildcard. Greenville / Spartanburg area is also growing but is holding steady in its redness. If the new folks since 2024 are heavily Republican then Trump probably will increase his margin, but there’s not really any reason to believe they are.

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Buckeye73's avatar

There is a long established history of people reporting that they voted for the winning candidate even if they didn't so a +4 Biden sample may actually be a +2 Biden sample. Also demographic changes in the electorate should favor us as well. There are more young voters, minority voters, and a larger percentage of the white vote should be college graduates than in 2020. (This works both ways )

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Jonathan's avatar

I saw someone posted here a few days ago about an amazing statistic(if it's true); that college educated whites now outnumber non-college whites(I don't know if this is factually accurate)

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Henrik's avatar

GoUBears posted the ACS estimates of 2019 v 2023 (which are probably usable as functional shorthand for the 2020 and 2024 populations). Essentially he/she/they suggested that there are 3.7 million more whites with college degrees over 25 in 2023, and 6.1 million fewer whites without a college degree in 2023. In not a statistician but I believe that’s a net shift of 9.8 million, a staggeringly large number.

The figure of both these demo cohorts being at roughly 70 million total I think was more of an estimate and not from the ACS survey/study. Also, bear in mind that this only accounts for the 25+ age bracket, so that’s a large demographic cohort of potential voters being excluded.

I’ll let people better at math than I extrapolate how that may effect the electorate/voting outcomes

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Jonathan's avatar

That's the one; thanks for updating

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GoUBears's avatar

Depends on the definitions, but yes, we may well be at that point. Per the ACS (whose accuracy in making precise statements is debatable, but their stated MoEs are generally under 100k), among non-Hispanic whites over 25, those with an associate's (which side of the divide they get measured on varies), bachelor's, and/or graduate degree numbered 1.5 million fewer than their counterparts in 2023. That gap's been narrowing by about 2 to 2.5 million per year per their figures, but I'm not entirely sure how the numbers work out for that. We see somewhere north of 3 million deaths per year, roughly 2/3 of them being white, and most of them being seniors. White women are certainly earning degrees at a higher rate, but for men, the increase is marginal (see below). Perhaps remote learning during the pandemic is the underlying factor.

My guess at the rate with degrees for whites by gender and age based on ACS data:

25-34: women 59% vs. men 48%

35-44: 60% vs. 50%

45-50: 51% vs. 45%

65+: 40% vs. 45% (and this will certainly be more dramatic for those over 80, who have far higher death rates than the group at large)

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