What is encouraging about them? Just the general high enthusiasm? Or are you seeing county-level numbers anywhere? Indications of favorable partisan split?
The presidential top line seems to be aligned with current already voted population, not necessarily the final electorate. So behind 7 pt is plausible.
Cruz only up 1 in this T+7 sample. The undecided are R leaning. But judging from huge turnout from the suburbs with a lot of newcomers, they may not that much like him. He probably has higher negative in the DFW outer suburbs than DT.
I wouldn’t assume the undecided R leaning section automatically breaking for Cruz.
The TX senate one is an eye opener. Maybe it is a real possibility Allred can win. I've been kind of dismissing polls showing him within striking distance, as this is a common pattern - D senate candidate in red(dish) state polling like 3-4 points behind GOP incumbent, but only in the low 40s, ends up losing by 10-15. BUT given Cruz's struggle against Beto in 2018, and given Allred at 47%, and given the Pres toplines are not that favorable, and given Emerson's lean - maybe this can happen.
Al Franken had a great one during their few years in the Senate together. “I like Ted Cruz more than most of my other colleagues like Ted Cruz. And I hate Ted Cruz.”
Emerson
MD: Harris up 63-33. Alsobrooks up 54-40
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-maryland-poll-alsobrooks-d-54-hogan-r-40/
TX: Trump up 53-46. Cruz up 48-47
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-texas-poll-trump-53-harris-46/
FL: Trump up 52-44. Scott up 48-44
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-florida-poll-trump-52-harris-44/
Considering that Emerson missed by 4-7 points for the GOP in 2022, those are some good polls.
TX # looks encouraging
What is encouraging about them? Just the general high enthusiasm? Or are you seeing county-level numbers anywhere? Indications of favorable partisan split?
The presidential top line seems to be aligned with current already voted population, not necessarily the final electorate. So behind 7 pt is plausible.
Cruz only up 1 in this T+7 sample. The undecided are R leaning. But judging from huge turnout from the suburbs with a lot of newcomers, they may not that much like him. He probably has higher negative in the DFW outer suburbs than DT.
I wouldn’t assume the undecided R leaning section automatically breaking for Cruz.
The TX senate one is an eye opener. Maybe it is a real possibility Allred can win. I've been kind of dismissing polls showing him within striking distance, as this is a common pattern - D senate candidate in red(dish) state polling like 3-4 points behind GOP incumbent, but only in the low 40s, ends up losing by 10-15. BUT given Cruz's struggle against Beto in 2018, and given Allred at 47%, and given the Pres toplines are not that favorable, and given Emerson's lean - maybe this can happen.
Ted Cruz is the most unlikable Republican in America; everyone hates him(the John Boehner quote about Cruz is classic)
Al Franken had a great one during their few years in the Senate together. “I like Ted Cruz more than most of my other colleagues like Ted Cruz. And I hate Ted Cruz.”
It’s not out of the realm of possibilities for Cruz to lose. After all, Beto only lost to him in 2018 by less than 3% points.