What is encouraging about them? Just the general high enthusiasm? Or are you seeing county-level numbers anywhere? Indications of favorable partisan split?
The presidential top line seems to be aligned with current already voted population, not necessarily the final electorate. So behind 7 pt is plausible.
Cruz only up 1 in this T+7 sample. The undecided are R leaning. But judging from huge turnout from the suburbs with a lot of newcomers, they may not that much like him. He probably has higher negative in the DFW outer suburbs than DT.
I wouldnтАЩt assume the undecided R leaning section automatically breaking for Cruz.
The TX senate one is an eye opener. Maybe it is a real possibility Allred can win. I've been kind of dismissing polls showing him within striking distance, as this is a common pattern - D senate candidate in red(dish) state polling like 3-4 points behind GOP incumbent, but only in the low 40s, ends up losing by 10-15. BUT given Cruz's struggle against Beto in 2018, and given Allred at 47%, and given the Pres toplines are not that favorable, and given Emerson's lean - maybe this can happen.
Emerson
MD: Harris up 63-33. Alsobrooks up 54-40
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-maryland-poll-alsobrooks-d-54-hogan-r-40/
TX: Trump up 53-46. Cruz up 48-47
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-texas-poll-trump-53-harris-46/
FL: Trump up 52-44. Scott up 48-44
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-florida-poll-trump-52-harris-44/
Considering that Emerson missed by 4-7 points for the GOP in 2022, those are some good polls.
TX # looks encouraging
What is encouraging about them? Just the general high enthusiasm? Or are you seeing county-level numbers anywhere? Indications of favorable partisan split?
The presidential top line seems to be aligned with current already voted population, not necessarily the final electorate. So behind 7 pt is plausible.
Cruz only up 1 in this T+7 sample. The undecided are R leaning. But judging from huge turnout from the suburbs with a lot of newcomers, they may not that much like him. He probably has higher negative in the DFW outer suburbs than DT.
I wouldnтАЩt assume the undecided R leaning section automatically breaking for Cruz.
The TX senate one is an eye opener. Maybe it is a real possibility Allred can win. I've been kind of dismissing polls showing him within striking distance, as this is a common pattern - D senate candidate in red(dish) state polling like 3-4 points behind GOP incumbent, but only in the low 40s, ends up losing by 10-15. BUT given Cruz's struggle against Beto in 2018, and given Allred at 47%, and given the Pres toplines are not that favorable, and given Emerson's lean - maybe this can happen.
Ted Cruz is the most unlikable Republican in America; everyone hates him(the John Boehner quote about Cruz is classic)
ItтАЩs not out of the realm of possibilities for Cruz to lose. After all, Beto only lost to him in 2018 by less than 3% points.