Morning Digest: Will L.A.'s embattled mayor make it to the general election?

A new poll shows Karen Bass in danger of getting knocked out of contention—or going up against her weakest opponent in the fall.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. (Credit: Karen Bass Facebook)

Leading Off

Los Angeles, CA Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is simultaneously in danger of a career-ending defeat on Tuesday and ​​tantalizingly close to getting the opponent she almost certainly wants to face in the fall, according to a new poll of next week’s officially nonpartisan primary.

UC Berkeley’s survey for the Los Angeles Times shows Bass leading with just 26% of the vote, with City Councilmember Nithya Raman narrowly edging out former reality TV star Spencer Pratt 25-22 for the second spot in the general election. Bass and Raman are both Democrats, while Pratt is a Republican.

Eleven other candidates are on the ballot, but none appear to have a shot to move forward. The school finds housing activist ​​Rae Huang, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, well behind with 9%, while no one else breaks 5%.

Bass convincingly won a promotion from the U.S. House to the mayor’s office in 2022, but her standing never recovered following her response to last year’s devastating wildfires and the subsequent rebuilding effort. Respondents now give Bass an upside-down 35-57 approval rating, a score no politician would be happy with going into a tough reelection campaign.

UC Berkeley, however, still gives her reason to hope things can align for her next week. While the mayor’s main priority is to take first or second place—there’s no realistic chance anyone will secure the majority of the vote needed to win outright—her second goal is to face Pratt instead of Raman.

Pratt, whom Donald Trump praised last week as “a big MAGA person,” would almost certainly have a tough time beating Bass in Los Angeles, a loyally blue city Kamala Harris carried 70-27, while a fellow Democrat like Raman could put up a stronger fight.

But Bass’ side isn’t just watching to see if Pratt, the subject of A.I. fan videos that have generated attention far outside of L.A., will edge past Raman. Her allies at the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor have been airing ads that, while ostensibly attacking Pratt, are likely intended to help him consolidate conservative voters.

UC Berkeley’s survey gives Bass’ backers still more reason to want him as her opponent in the fall. The school shows the incumbent defeating Pratt 47-29 in a hypothetical one-on-one, while Raman would lead her 32-28. The school also finds Raman defeating Pratt 45-28 in a potential matchup between the two challengers.

But while Pratt’s presence on the general election ballot would be welcome news for his eventual opponent, one prominent Los Angeles voter hopes to avoid spending another five months talking about the former star of “The Hills.”

“[T]he difference between Donald Trump and this guy is, Donald Trump actually had a job before he was on a reality show,” Jimmy Kimmel told his late-night TV show audience on Wednesday. “So if you don’t want to vote for Karen Bass on June 2, I get it. But you better find somebody else to vote for, and preferably somebody who isn’t wasting our time and money to get himself back on television.”

Redistricting Roundup

LA Redistricting

Each chamber of Louisiana’s Republican-dominated legislature has passed a congressional map designed to eliminate the majority Black 6th District, but they haven’t signed off on the same map yet. Both Senate and House leaders, however, say the boundaries the lower chamber passed on Thursday, which were only released earlier that day, could soon become law.

Senate

GA-Sen

Republican Rep. Mike Collins holds a 55-39 lead over intraparty rival Derek Dooley, according to a new poll conducted following a tumultuous week for the frontrunner.

This survey from JMC Analytics and Polling, a Republican firm that says it’s not affiliated with any candidates running for governor or Senate in Georgia, was conducted days after Collins said he was parting ways with longtime strategist Brandon Phillips over what the candidate called “a despicable and unauthorized twitter comment using a Team Collins campaign account.”

Phillips fired off that now-deleted tweet on Friday after operative Luke Thompson, who is supporting Dooley, argued Collins would be the weaker candidate to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. The Mike Collins War Room account replied by calling Thompson, “Matt Laurer’s sloppy seconds,” and observers quickly understood exactly what was meant.

Thompson is married to former NBC reporter Brooke Nevils, who has said she attempted suicide after she accused former NBC host Matt Lauer of raping her. (Lauer has denied the allegations.)

That tweet led to days of unwelcome attention for Collins, who just days earlier outpaced Dooley 41-30 in the first round of the primary. Nevils herself said in an Instagram video that, while Collins had apologized to her, “I think the bigger question is, why was there a culture that permitted that kind of behavior?”

All of this transpired several months after the House Ethics Committee said in November it was investigating Collins and Phillips, who was his chief of staff at the time. While the panel did not initially disclose what it was looking into, the Office of Congressional Conduct later said it had “substantial reason to believe that Rep. Collins used congressional resources for unofficial or otherwise unauthorized purposes,” including allegations that Phillips hired his girlfriend for an essentially no-show job as a paid intern.

But Collins, who blasted the allegations as “bogus,” remained the frontrunner to take on Ossoff even after Rep. Buddy Carter, an intraparty rival, ran ads attacking his colleague for allegedly “misusing taxpayer funds to benefit himself and his cronies.” Collins finished well in front last week, while Carter took third place.

And while the new scrutiny surrounding Phillips was an unwanted distraction for Collins less than a month ahead of the June 16 runoff—Punchbowl News summed things up Monday with the headline “Collins’ ugly post shakes his Georgia campaign”—it’s hardly taken him out of the running in his quest for Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Axios instead reported Wednesday that Collins had hired several prominent Trump advisors for the runoff, which could give him the inside track in the race for Trump’s seal of approval.

Trump is also unlikely to be bothered by reporter Ben Jacobs’ Slate story published Thursday bearing the headline, “Why Was the Chief of Staff for a Leading Republican Senate Candidate on a Group Chat With Famous White Nationalists?” The chief of staff in question, Kip Talley, succeeded Phillips in this role.

Governors

AZ-Gov

The hardline Club for Growth endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs, a longtime ally, ahead of the July 21 Republican primary for Arizona governor. Biggs enjoys a huge lead in the polls against fellow Rep. David Schweikert in the race to take on Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.

MI-Gov, MI-Sen

The Michigan Board of State Canvassers on Thursday approved Rep. John James and wealthy businessman Perry Johnson for spots on the August Republican primary ballot for governor, a vote that came a week after the state’s Bureau of Elections determined they’d each turned in the requisite 15,000 valid signatures.

Johnson was the subject of a Detroit News report the previous day describing how a former consultant signed an affidavit accusing the Johnson campaign of adding disclaimers to petitions after voters had signed them. But while James’ backers urged the bipartisan panel to disqualify Johnson, whose first campaign ended in 2022 when he fell victim to a signature-gathering scandal, that’s not what happened.

“You’re asking us to consider something that we haven’t seen at all, based upon a newspaper story,” Mary Ellen Gurewitz, a Democratic commissioner, said. “It’s impossible for us to do that.”

The panel, though, agreed that pastor Ralph Rebandt, who was waging a long-shot campaign for the Republican nomination, and a little-known Democrat named Kim Thomas each failed to turn in enough signatures. They also disqualified former state GOP co-chair Bernadette Smith, who was already struggling to run a viable bid for the U.S. Senate.

James and Johnson will face former state Attorney General Mike Cox and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, whose signatures weren’t challenged, in the Republican primary for governor. The Democratic contest remains a duel between Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the frontrunner, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

Smith’s removal also means that former Rep. Mike Rogers will face no intraparty opposition in his second campaign for Senate. Rogers will take on the winner of the three-way Democratic primary between former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Rep. Haley Stevens.

VT-Gov

Republican Gov. Phil Scott announced his campaign for a sixth two-year term on Thursday, less than two hours before candidate filing closed in Vermont.

While the incumbent, who claimed his most recent term in a 73-22 landslide even as Kamala Harris carried his state 64-32, is the favorite to win again, Democrats are hoping voters are looking for change after a decade of Scott’s leadership.

Two notable challengers began running against him earlier this year: economist Amanda Janoo, who also chairs a network of advocacy groups, and Aly Richards, the former CEO of the influential childcare advocacy organization Let’s Grow Kids.

House

FL-25

Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz announced Thursday he would seek reelection in the new 25th District in South Florida, a move that comes a month after Republicans targeted him with their new gerrymander.

Donald Trump would have carried the revamped constituency 54-45 in 2024, while Kamala Harris narrowly won Moskowitz’s old 23rd District 51-49. The congressman, though, is hoping the political climate will look more like 2020, when the voters in what’s now the 25th District backed Joe Biden 52-47.

Moskowitz will also have to introduce himself to many of his new voters. The incumbent, who won two terms in the 23rd District under the old map, currently represents only 46% of the residents of the new 25th, according to calculations by The Downballot.

Former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer and former state Rep. George Moraitis, who each began challenging Moskowitz before the new map was drawn up, are both seeking the Republican nomination to oppose him. Union organizer Oliver Larkin, who describes himself as a “proud Democratic Socialist,” is opposing the incumbent in the August primary.

NJ-12

Allies of Sue Altman have launched a late effort to counter attacks from a conservative group ahead of Tuesday’s busy Democratic primary for New Jersey’s safely blue 12th Congressional District.

The New Jersey Globe reports that Project 218, a group affiliated with the Democratic opposition research giant American Bridge, is spending close to $400,000 on ads for Altman, the former head of the state affiliate of the national Working Families Party.

Most of the outside spending in this race has benefited physician Adam Hamawy, who also has raised more money than Altman or any of the other 10 Democratic candidates.

NY-13

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on Thursday endorsed activist Darializa Avila Chevalier's campaign to defeat Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the closely watched June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th District.

Mamdani’s support for Avila Chevalier, a self-described Democratic socialist, comes as Espaillat’s allies are deploying serious money to help him hold on next month in this safely blue seat based in northern Manhattan and the South Bronx.

The Latino Victory Fund announced last week that it was spending $750,000 to aid Espaillat, the first Dominican American member of Congress. BOLD PAC, an affiliate of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, subsequently told the New York Times it would direct $600,000 to back up Espaillat.

Avila Chevalier, meanwhile, has benefited from a smaller $380,000 outlay from the Justice Democrats, a left-wing group that helped oust four House incumbents in primaries in 2018 and 2020.

Avila Chevalier, who at 32 is nearly four decades younger than the 71-year-old incumbent, launched her campaign last November by arguing that “overcoming the politics of the past takes action from all of us.”

Avila Chevalier also faulted Espaillat for endorsing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo over Mamdani in the Democratic primary (he later supported Mamdani in the general election), and for taking contributions from AIPAC.

Espaillat has countered by highlighting his liberal record and ardent opposition to the Trump administration. The five-term congressman’s backers also have touted his influence in Congress: City Councilman Shaun Abreu told the Times that Espaillat is “an important Latino figure in Washington with meaningful seniority chairing the Hispanic Caucus and sitting on the appropriations committee.”

The only publicly available survey was a late March internal poll for Avila Chevalier that showed Espaillat ahead 42-28, a deficit her team said she could overcome once more voters heard her message. The congressman, for his part, did not offer any answers on Wednesday when the Times asked him what his polls show.

NY-17

VoteVets, an influential organization that backs Democrats with backgrounds in national security, on Thursday announced a $1 million ad campaign to boost Cait Conley in the June 23 Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. No other third-party groups reported spending anything in the nomination contest in New York’s swingy 17th District.

The opening ad, which highlights Conley’s service in the Army after 9/11 and as a National Security Council official, was accompanied by a poll conducted for VoteVets giving her a small lead over her main intraparty rival.

Global Strategy Group’s survey finds her edging out Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson 29-22, with Tarrytown Trustee ​​Effie Phillips-Staley a distant third with 6%. A 38% plurality say they’re undecided, while the remaining 6% of the vote is split between two other candidates.

The last publicly available poll was a survey for Phillips-Staley conducted in late April that showed Davidson beating Conley 26-15. That survey from Data for Progress also showed Phillips-Staley far back with 8%, though it argued she could win a race where most voters had yet to make up their minds.

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: Global Strategy Group for Alex Vindman:

  • Ashley Moody (R-inc): 46, Alex Vindman (D): 43.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Public Policy Institute of California:

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 23, Steve Hilton (R): 20, Tom Steyer (D): 15, Chad Bianco (R): 13, Katie Porter (D): 12, Matt Mahan (D): 7, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 5, other candidates 1% or less.

  • April: Eric Swalwell (D): 18, Hilton (R): 17, Bianco (R): 14, Steyer (D): 14, Porter (D), Becerra (D): 5, Villaraigosa (D): 5, Mahan (D): 5.

  • The poll was conducted May 14-18.

• CA-Gov (top-two): Kreate Strategies:

  • Becerra (D): 27, Hilton (R): 26, Steyer (D): 20, Bianco (R): 9, Porter (D): 5, Mahan (D): 4.

  • Early May: Hilton (R): 22, Becerra (D): 20, Steyer (D): 14, Bianco (R): 13, Porter (D): 9, Mahan (D): 9.

  • Kreate says these polls were “not sponsored by any campaign, candidate committee, or outside organization.”

• GA-Gov (R): JMC Analytics and Polling:

  • Rick Jackson: 45, Burt Jones: 43.

  • JMC says it “is not affiliated with any candidate running for Governor or Senator.”

• NE-Gov: Lake Research Partners for Lynne Walz:

  • Jim Pillen (R-inc): 47, Lynne Walz (D): 45.

  • Unreleased December poll: 48-43 Pillen.

  • The poll was conducted April 25-29.

• NJ-07: Z to A Research for 314 Action Fund (pro-Tina Shah):

  • Tina Shah (D): 46, Tom Kean (R-inc): 43.

  • The release did not include numbers for any of the other Democrats running in the June 2 primary.

Editor’s Note: Our writeup of April’s poll from the Public Policy Institute of California inadvertently omitted Katie Porter’s 10% of the vote.