Ah. I thought by saying she was to the left of "everyone" you meant *everyone*, not just the people running. I haven't heard of that 10/7 celebration but I'll do my own research due to the forbidden nature of the topic.
I looked it up and did see a Politico article. On October 8, 2023, there was a pro-Palestine DSA rally that drew condemnation from officials like Kathy Hochul and Ritchie Torres, but I can't find anything about Chevalier being there.
Our mission has always been to shine a light on downballot elections because they never get the attention they deserve. We don’t ban policy discussions, but we give them a very short leash. And please avoid the Israeli-Palestinian conflict altogether. Again, there are plenty of places to discuss it—just not here."
I understand this is a key reason you oppose Avila Chevalier. But please respect our rules and either focus on other reasons you feel the way you do, as you did in the first half of your comment, or skip leaving a comment on this race if you feel you can't without bringing up the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
And to reiterate what we say in the rules, there are plenty of places to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, online and offline. It's an important and massive subject. Just don't do it here.
What does the physical size of the district have to do with reasons for a primary? There's still 776,000 people per district, which is more than many other state's districts.
“Commie caucus”? For fuck’s sake, what is this, the 50s? I don’t see Chevalier calling for government seizure of the means of production. If you don’t like DAC that’s fine, but don’t exaggerate.
And once again, I ask you to stop your endless tirades against the left. I’d say the same for someone doing it for the center. It is exhausting.
I think Claire Valdez is from Bushwick, and she's running for the Commie Corridor seat. Nydia Velazquez is from Red Hook, not in her current district, but has represented all of those locations in the past.
I agree Sunset Park should be taken out - if it should be there, then so should Park Slope, home to Brad Lander (and, unfortunately, Chuck Schumer.)
No you’re right, it’s an issue I’ve struggled with and I won’t lie about it. My comment was more of a, I will work on not doing it in the future-type comment.
Personally, I'm fine with bashing any party as long as the issue you're mad at actually has merit. Sometimes I see comments that do, sometimes I don't.
I do think it’s important to call out Dems if they do things completely unaligned with the party and/or risk embarrassing us. See: Fetterman, Bowman, etc.
In the end though, uniting around a Dem candidate should be our goal. I’m in NY-17, for example, and while I don’t like potential frontrunner Cait Conley, I will vote and canvass for her if she wins the primary.
A difference of opinion on preference for a democratic candidate isn't bashing and shouldn't be perceived as such. As the rapper Common once said, "If I don't like it, I don't like it, that don't mean that I'm hatin."
Mentioning Kimmel's quote on Pratt reminds me of Anthony Jeselnik during the roast of Trump in 2011, who basically said "if you look up douchebag in the dictionary, you find a picture of Spencer Pratt holding up a picture of Donald Trump."
He was last famous 17 years ago for being the guy who married Heidi Montag. I used to watch the Chelsea Handler talk show with my mom when visiting and Handler called that couple Herpes Simplex 1 and 2.
She’s actually younger than I would have thought, she was elected to the Senate the same year as Barbara Mikulski, Dianne Feinstein, and Barbara Boxer, who were all at least 10 years older than her.
75 is not that old. Not all older people need bladder control undergarments. Ageism is not funny. I am the same age as Sen. Cantwell who is also "old", if old is defined as being eligible for Medicare and SSA benefits.
Ferguson seems pretty happy where he’s at and I don’t think he’s ever really been interested in federal office.
But, yeah, you’d have a deep bench gunning for that seat in 2028. DelBene and Jayapal both pretty openly want it. Schrier would probably defer to them both imo
I'm just wondering how my original reply here to Julius disappeared, since I didn't delete it. Also Julius, although the topic is super-innocuous, any time you've edited/changed your original comment, I think that should be noted. (I'd do the same).
In the Indiana race for Secretary of State--candidates to be selected by delegates at each party's convention--the negative information about incumbent Secretary of State, Diego Morales is getting a fresh airing, although it was well known before Banks used his influence to shake up the race over Banks's claim that a non-citizen employed in Morales' office voted illegally. She didn't, but that is a major campaign issue for Banks who takes harsh stands on immigration issues. The corruption issues should have caused withdrawal of support many months ago:
An editorial suggests that if the Republicans replace Morales, the Democratic candidate for Secretary of State will have greater difficulty in the general election:
What I see as the real story here is that Banks wants someone as Secretary of State--the officer who controls elections--to be someone in his orbit. Banks could easily have backed the Republican who actually has experience in running elections. Banks is a true MAGA election denier, and I cannot shake the worry that he plans a run for the Republican nomination as president in 2028.
I hope you are right. Banks is clearly consolidating power statewide in Indiana, having previously joined with Braun to help Trump primary Republican state senators who opposed redistricting. He was MAGA in the House, then rode that to the Senate, with only weak Democratic candidates entering the Democratic primary, which produced a very weak candidate.
In the GA-Sen item, it says "Laurer's sloppy seconds" referencing the tweet the staffer posted; is that a typo from the staffer, or TDB? The article is paywalled so I can't see it myself.
Most interesting part of the JMC poll is it has Jackson up against Jones in the gubernatorial runoff. I wouldn't expect the same poll to show Dooley down by so much.
Republican electorate is dominated by exurban White voters, followed by rural ones.
These numbers are probably more CW, than any surprise? I was actually surprised the vicious fights between Collins and Carter let Dooley sneaked into the 2nd place.
The reasons her intentions were so unclear are actually quite admirable. She said she made the decision a long time ago, but was worried the new congressional map could dismantle her district without her representing it.
Though Wilson won't make an endorsement, state Sen. Shev Jones is practically running already, and he appears to be the candidate closest to her. She also took issue with physician Rudy Moise running, supposedly a friend of hers, FWIW.
Early voting in the South Carolina 2026 primaries hit record in first two days, partly due to the failed redistricting scheme. Over 56,000 ballots cast this past Tuesday, and then another 34,000 the following Wednesday.
Anyone have a good rundown on the AZ legislature and if we have a shot at flipping it? Both chambers are pretty close even after 2024, which was our worst year there in a decade. With Hobbs looking like she's in a good spot I wonder if we can swing a trifecta.
It's not gerrymandered and it's getting close to flipping, ie Virginia in 2017. I think this midterm is definitely prime to flip one or both AZ state houses.
According to the 2024 election results, there were several AZ Rs in the AZ state Senate who won by less than 10 points: Shawnna Bolick (R+2.1), T.J. Shoppe (R+3.9), Anthony Kern (R+7.8), Carine Werner (R+4), and Vince Leach (R+2). Democrats need to flip three seats to gain the AZ state Senate.
As for AZ state House, Democrats need to flip 4 to net the majority. Before 2024, they needed two. It's getting there.
Are those the Presidential numbers? Based on the results for the actual candidates, I had that the two median districts were District 2 (Shawnna Bolick (R) by 3.7) and District 4 (Carine Werner (R) by 3.9).
The state house uses the same district lines as the senate but elects 2 reps for each district. There are a couple with mixed representation.
Yeah, that was confusing, so I didn't do any calculations on that. But if the special elections are any indication... Arizona could net a full-on Democratic trifecta like WI, MN, WI and PA could this year. Esp since they don't have a U.S. Senate seat up for grabs either.
Colombia: the first round of elections are set for this weekend. Polls show Historic Pact's (the party of incumbent leftist Gustavo Petro) Ivan Cepeda likely heading to a runoff with far right Abelardo de la Espriella of the National Salvation party. Shockingly, despite Petro's long-running unpopularity, most runoff polling shows (with AtlasIntel a notable exception) Cepeda winning with leads from 5-10 points.
Peru: The runoff between perennial candidate Keiko Fujimori and upstart candidate Roberto Sanchez is set for June 7th. Sanchez made the second round seemingly out of nowhere by vastly outperforming his polling (most polls had him in 4th or 5th place). As polling over the past month has shown Fujimori with consistent yet small (5 pts or under) leads, he'll have to do so again to prevent Fujimori from finally gaining the presidency she has sought three times previously.
Brazil: Elections arent until October, but after Lula gained a strong polling bounce from his tariff battle with Trump last Summer, polling showed him neck and neck with the son (Flavio) of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro in runoffs, after prior conservative favorite Tarcisio Freitas dropped out in December and endorsed Bolsonaro. Fortunately, Lula again has received seemingly divine assistance as news reports came out of Bolsonaro having incriminating phone calls with a key player in the Banco Master scandal rocking Brazil. Polling since since has shown Lula consistently leading Bolsonaro in a runoff, although by single digit margins that leave little room for comfort.
Sanchez did better than his polls largely because of his strength in rural areas which includes lots of villages without phone or internet access and or do not speak Spanish.
Mayes Middleton is the Republican nominee to succeed Ken Paxton as attorney general of Texas. His statement yesterday that: "President Trump is the greatest president we have ever had in our history" should be disqualifying.
The GOP nominee is Mayes Middleton, not the other way around. Not important, except that one of my friends in Texas has the same surname so now I am joking that Mayes M. is his cousin. He liked it better when his only famous "cousin" was Kate Middleton. He lives in Tarrant County and voted for his new Democratic State Senator Taylor Rehmet, and for Talarico in the U.S. Senate primary...
The constant hyperbole that they engage in is one of the most infuriating things of this era for me. Especially considering that he'll likely go down closer to the Worst President than the Best President.
Closer to? Well, we haven't had states actually secede or a shooting Civil War loom, or Reconstruction for him to stymie, so maybe he hasn't hit Pierce/Buchanan/Andrew Johnson levels (yet.)
So is Becerra really pulling away from Steyer in California? Good to see republicans finally got turds message on who they should vote for. I was sweating the lockout for a week there.
I feel like republicans have coalesced around Hilton enough to get him top 2, if Bianco was still in the mid teens i think that could have been a possibility.
Repubs focusing on Hilton is happening with help from Hilton's media strategy. He has both positive ads touting his candidacy and attack ads against Bianco, which are absurd, but might be effective with low-info GOP voters. The ad shows Bianco kneeling during the BLM protests and says that he is too weak to fight for Repub values. Th first time I saw it I thought it was ICE-related but when I saw it again it was BLM. As a sheriff, Bianco may have been trying to show that he was fair and respectful to the folks in his county, but that is too much for the GOPs.
It is hard to have any respect for Republicans these days...
My wacko brother who is rightwinger from California has switched from Bianco to Hilton and I definitely do not think he is alone. The fix is in for Hilton.
That is an interesting idea, but I don't think it would work. After Tr*mp endorsed him Hilton became the main GOPer. Hilton gained and Bianco lost support. They could only both get in if they were both running equally well, and there were enough different Democrats drawing support. The conditions would have to be perfect for them to be able to do that.
It is a weird and less predictable election than most we have experienced in CA gubernatorial races. We will start having a better idea in about fifty hours from now. I am glad it is almost over. I voted about two weeks ago. I kept looking at the ballot on my desk and wanted it to go out.
For late deciders the best way is to take your ballot to a polling place or county ballot drop box.At this point it is best not to trust the mail,unless that is the only way you can send it. Be sure to sign and date on the outside envelope so it will be counted. Have fun voting!
The race looks to be both close and volatile. Almost anything could happen between the top three. I am hoping for TS and XB in the runoff to tank Repub turnout in November for congressional, legislative and ballot measure races.
They start counting votes on Tuesday at 8PM Pacific Time. We can wait until then...
I've resigned myself to voting for the inevitable Primary loser, Steyer. I think he'd be better than Becerra if he can sneak into the Top Two. I'm not looking forward to 8 years of Becerra though.
He’s not there yet as far as running but State Senator Jesse Arreguin would make an excellent Governor even while he’s just in his 2nd year as State Senator and is just getting started.
Arreguin previously served as Mayor of Berkeley for two terms and beats all of the candidates in terms of qualifications. He’s Chair of Housing in the State Senate and has really been killing it on housing affordability and strengthening tenant rights.
Arreguin just comes from a much different background and experience than Weiner but primarily because he served as Mayor of Berkeley, which has been leading in affordable housing and homeless housing. Arreguin will likely be the one who takes over Weiner in the State Senate as far as being the leader on housing after Weiner’s out of office in state government.
Jesse Arreguin represents me in the State Senate while Buffy Wicks represents me in the Assembly. Both have been quite responsive although Wicks’ office got back to me five hours after I sent an inquiry.
I don't prefer her at all, but it's kinda wild that Porter didn't drop out and endorse Steyer (who I also don't prefer) considering he's the only bold progressive who has a chance to make the runoff. If it's Becerra 27, Hilton 25, Steyer 24, I imagine she'll get much of the blame.
I could see her running again for Congress or some other office in Orange County in the future. But unless she makes an impressive last minute rebound this is probably it for her as a viable statewide candidate.
I don't think either Porter or Steyer are particularly progressive though. And, while I dont think highly of porter, a real politician dropping out to back some rich guy seems weird.
I think ideologically she'd be closer to Steyer than Becerra so there would be some rationale for that given that her campaign has faded down the stretch.
As it so happens, Steyer is the founder of NextGen America, which is a progressive non-profit activist organization. If he’s against the Keystone Pipeline (as far back as in 2017) and for the billionaire tax at the same time, sounds to me he’s pretty progressive. Our Revolution must be crazy to support Steyer’s campaign!
FYI, San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, essentially bought the 2024 Mayoral Election with a lot of self-funding being emphasized. I was not a fan of his candidacy but with just roughly 1 1/2 years in office, he’s significantly improved the city’s image, morale and economy.
Being Govenor though is a much different beast. I voted for Steyer by mail but it had nothing to do with whether he’s progressive or not. More to do with the lackluster field of candidates. If Steyer didn’t catch on, I think this has to do in part with Katie Porter already being in the races
News from the North. So much news. Deep breath, here we go...
The government of Alberta announced it will hold a referendum in October to determine if it should hold another referendum at a later date to determine if the province should become independent. Yes, I did summarize it correctly. It will be held in conjunction with several more referenda questions on various red meat conservative topics such as immigration reform, election security, provincial input on appointment of judges, and other dogwhistles. More information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alberta_referendum#Constitutional_questions
Keep in mind that most of this would require the federal government and other provincial governments to buy in, which seems highly unlikely in the present environment. As for the independence movement, it is currently polling strongly negative but the unclear wording of the ballot question may make it a closer race.
North Vancouver: Jonathan Wilkinson is resigning to become Canada's ambassador to the EU
Beaches-East York: Nate Erksine-Smith has said he will resign to run for leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party
Rosemont-La Petite Patrie: Alexandre Boulerice left the NDP to sit as an independent MP with the eventual goal of resigning this fall to run in the Quebec provincial election
St Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton: Bloc Quebecios MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay has become an independent for the same reason as Boulerice
Laurier-Sainte Marie: Steven Guilebeault, former Environment Minister under Trudeau, will resign this summer as he is opposed to the support the current PM is giving to the petroleum sector.
In Ontario, Caroline Mulroney, daughter of the late Brian Mulroney, is resigning from the government and her seat of York-Simcoe. There is also the vacancy created in Scarborough Southwest after Doly Begum resigned to win the federal riding as a Liberal.
In other provincial by-election news, a newly formed Francophone-opportunity seat on Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia will be electing it's first representative on June 23rd. Still no news on when the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election will be.
Ontario provincial politics is so bleak these days. You have the Ontario NDP who've done nothing except shrink the size of their caucus each election since 2018, the OLP taking three consecutive elections to finally get official party status back and talented politicians instead choosing to instead go to Ottawa to hitch their wagons to Mark Carney (can't blame them).
Why does Espaillat deserve to "win big"? How is she to the left of "everyone"?
Ah. I thought by saying she was to the left of "everyone" you meant *everyone*, not just the people running. I haven't heard of that 10/7 celebration but I'll do my own research due to the forbidden nature of the topic.
This alone is reason to hope Darializa Avila Chevalier is roundly defeated. I sincerely hope Congressman Adriano Espaillat wins reelection!
Could you provide a source for these claims? Not saying they didn’t happen, I just want to make sure they come from a valid source.
If you supported the Trump admin's targeting of Mahmoud Khalil, you don't belong in this coalition.
I looked it up and did see a Politico article. On October 8, 2023, there was a pro-Palestine DSA rally that drew condemnation from officials like Kathy Hochul and Ritchie Torres, but I can't find anything about Chevalier being there.
Pro-Palestine ≠ "celebration of the 10/7 attacks", it shouldn't have to be pointed out.
Torres, in his condemnation, also said there was a "special place in hell" for the protesters, so the vitriol is on both sides.
True, but the timing was... insensitive, at best.
Please review our rules of the road, specifically Rule 5 https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-community-rules-of
"Our focus is politics, not policy.
Our mission has always been to shine a light on downballot elections because they never get the attention they deserve. We don’t ban policy discussions, but we give them a very short leash. And please avoid the Israeli-Palestinian conflict altogether. Again, there are plenty of places to discuss it—just not here."
I understand this is a key reason you oppose Avila Chevalier. But please respect our rules and either focus on other reasons you feel the way you do, as you did in the first half of your comment, or skip leaving a comment on this race if you feel you can't without bringing up the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
And to reiterate what we say in the rules, there are plenty of places to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, online and offline. It's an important and massive subject. Just don't do it here.
If you don’t feel you can comment on a particular race without bringing up topics we’ve asked people not to bring up, then please don’t comment.
What does the physical size of the district have to do with reasons for a primary? There's still 776,000 people per district, which is more than many other state's districts.
My God, calling the Columbia protests a pogrom is so stupid.
I would like us to move on.
We can do without the right-wing framing of progressives as "commies".
We've had this discussion on here before, and Eric clearly has a strong opinion on this matter. I wouldn't engage.
Sounds worthy of the block feature.
“Commie caucus”? For fuck’s sake, what is this, the 50s? I don’t see Chevalier calling for government seizure of the means of production. If you don’t like DAC that’s fine, but don’t exaggerate.
And once again, I ask you to stop your endless tirades against the left. I’d say the same for someone doing it for the center. It is exhausting.
Oh I see. It’s derived from the “commie corridor” term. I’ve seen people on the left use it too, for the record - seems it was a misunderstanding.
I think Claire Valdez is from Bushwick, and she's running for the Commie Corridor seat. Nydia Velazquez is from Red Hook, not in her current district, but has represented all of those locations in the past.
I agree Sunset Park should be taken out - if it should be there, then so should Park Slope, home to Brad Lander (and, unfortunately, Chuck Schumer.)
I know Astoria is very firmly part of it. I've heard it be called the "People's Republic of Astoria" -- by people in/sympathetic with the DSA, even.
No you’re right, it’s an issue I’ve struggled with and I won’t lie about it. My comment was more of a, I will work on not doing it in the future-type comment.
Personally, I'm fine with bashing any party as long as the issue you're mad at actually has merit. Sometimes I see comments that do, sometimes I don't.
I do think it’s important to call out Dems if they do things completely unaligned with the party and/or risk embarrassing us. See: Fetterman, Bowman, etc.
In the end though, uniting around a Dem candidate should be our goal. I’m in NY-17, for example, and while I don’t like potential frontrunner Cait Conley, I will vote and canvass for her if she wins the primary.
A difference of opinion on preference for a democratic candidate isn't bashing and shouldn't be perceived as such. As the rapper Common once said, "If I don't like it, I don't like it, that don't mean that I'm hatin."
Mentioning Kimmel's quote on Pratt reminds me of Anthony Jeselnik during the roast of Trump in 2011, who basically said "if you look up douchebag in the dictionary, you find a picture of Spencer Pratt holding up a picture of Donald Trump."
Pratt has been "famous" for that long? I watch virtually no "reality" TV so I had never heard of him before this campaign
He was last famous 17 years ago for being the guy who married Heidi Montag. I used to watch the Chelsea Handler talk show with my mom when visiting and Handler called that couple Herpes Simplex 1 and 2.
To show how out of step I am with popular culture, I have no idea who Chelsea Handler is! Lol
There was a time when she was relevant, but that has passed.
I rarely follow celebrity crap anyway.
Me neither
https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/june-2026-elections-guide/
Bolts Magazine is out with its 100 Elections to Watch this June guide, for those interested.
https://x.com/PattyMurray/status/2060156467374633239
Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) was out of Congress this week after falling down the stairs and breaking her ankle.
Interestingly, the hospital she apparently went to is in Vancouver, which is not the part of the state I thought she lived in.
Her statement and the picture implies she was at home when it happened, though. Maybe she moved and it wasn't super public.
She seems to have aged pretty gracefully. Her colleague, Maria Cantwell, is 8 years younger, but they look similar in age most of the time.
And that person, Dianne Feinstein, died several months later. Now, the president pro tempore is 4 years older than she was when she died.
She’s actually younger than I would have thought, she was elected to the Senate the same year as Barbara Mikulski, Dianne Feinstein, and Barbara Boxer, who were all at least 10 years older than her.
Mikulski was actually in the Senate for 6 years before them, but that is interesting. Carol Moseley Braun was also part of the Year of the Woman.
She was a "mom in tennis shoes" when she got elected now she's a "grandma in depends"
75 is not that old. Not all older people need bladder control undergarments. Ageism is not funny. I am the same age as Sen. Cantwell who is also "old", if old is defined as being eligible for Medicare and SSA benefits.
Wasn’t she on retirement watch? That will certainly be a crowded primary. I can imagine a lot of ambitious WA Dems might be gunning for it.
I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for another term in 2028. I think this was just an accident, but it is also common for people her age.
But yeah, I imagine practically the entire House delegation would be interested, as well as statewide officials and legislators.
It would surely be interesting if Bob Ferguson didn't run for re election as Governor and ran for her seat.
Ferguson seems pretty happy where he’s at and I don’t think he’s ever really been interested in federal office.
But, yeah, you’d have a deep bench gunning for that seat in 2028. DelBene and Jayapal both pretty openly want it. Schrier would probably defer to them both imo
Vancouver is in Washington. It is on the north side of the Columbia River across from Portland OR. Nowhere near Portland, Maine or Vancouver BC.
Julius it's much less famous than the one in BC. But there is in fact a city called Vancouver in Washington, just over the river from Portland, OR.
I'm aware. I thought she lived closer to Seattle, though.
I'm just wondering how my original reply here to Julius disappeared, since I didn't delete it. Also Julius, although the topic is super-innocuous, any time you've edited/changed your original comment, I think that should be noted. (I'd do the same).
I now see that it says edited. But my question re my own disappearing comment remains.
In the polling section of today’s write up, the recap of the PPIC poll from April dropped Porter. She got 10% back then.
Thank you, I've fixed
In the Indiana race for Secretary of State--candidates to be selected by delegates at each party's convention--the negative information about incumbent Secretary of State, Diego Morales is getting a fresh airing, although it was well known before Banks used his influence to shake up the race over Banks's claim that a non-citizen employed in Morales' office voted illegally. She didn't, but that is a major campaign issue for Banks who takes harsh stands on immigration issues. The corruption issues should have caused withdrawal of support many months ago:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/05/29/new-records-spotlight-questionable-90k-restitution-fund-payment-to-donor-nearly-500k-in-raises-under-morales/?emci=9d0618fe-ad5a-f111-8fcb-000d3a18905c&emdi=f3dc9dc5-515b-f111-8fcb-000d3a18905c&ceid=630426
An editorial suggests that if the Republicans replace Morales, the Democratic candidate for Secretary of State will have greater difficulty in the general election:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/05/29/its-a-new-race-for-indiana-secretary-of-state/?emci=9d0618fe-ad5a-f111-8fcb-000d3a18905c&emdi=f3dc9dc5-515b-f111-8fcb-000d3a18905c&ceid=630426
What I see as the real story here is that Banks wants someone as Secretary of State--the officer who controls elections--to be someone in his orbit. Banks could easily have backed the Republican who actually has experience in running elections. Banks is a true MAGA election denier, and I cannot shake the worry that he plans a run for the Republican nomination as president in 2028.
Banks is a demon, but I don't think he would get the nomination in 2028.
I hope you are right. Banks is clearly consolidating power statewide in Indiana, having previously joined with Braun to help Trump primary Republican state senators who opposed redistricting. He was MAGA in the House, then rode that to the Senate, with only weak Democratic candidates entering the Democratic primary, which produced a very weak candidate.
Weird to mention Rae Huang’s DSA membership when Nithya Raman is also a member, being the first LA DSA councilor.
Not to mention LA DSA recommended Raman to voters while not completely endorsing her.
In the GA-Sen item, it says "Laurer's sloppy seconds" referencing the tweet the staffer posted; is that a typo from the staffer, or TDB? The article is paywalled so I can't see it myself.
Here’s a screenshot of the original. https://bsky.app/profile/bluestein.bsky.social/post/3mmhsxcx3hs2l
Thanks! Maybe add [sic]?
Truly revolting comment. What a POS.
Most interesting part of the JMC poll is it has Jackson up against Jones in the gubernatorial runoff. I wouldn't expect the same poll to show Dooley down by so much.
Which part of the state you are in?
Republican electorate is dominated by exurban White voters, followed by rural ones.
These numbers are probably more CW, than any surprise? I was actually surprised the vicious fights between Collins and Carter let Dooley sneaked into the 2nd place.
amp.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article315914072.html
FL-24: Rep. Frederica Wilson (D) is retiring.
The reasons her intentions were so unclear are actually quite admirable. She said she made the decision a long time ago, but was worried the new congressional map could dismantle her district without her representing it.
Though Wilson won't make an endorsement, state Sen. Shev Jones is practically running already, and he appears to be the candidate closest to her. She also took issue with physician Rudy Moise running, supposedly a friend of hers, FWIW.
Early voting in the South Carolina 2026 primaries hit record in first two days, partly due to the failed redistricting scheme. Over 56,000 ballots cast this past Tuesday, and then another 34,000 the following Wednesday.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/south-carolina-early-voting-turnout-190321029.html
101,000 early votes in total were cast during the 2022 early voting period, while 120,000 ballots were cast during the 2024 early voting period.
A little more than 50% of our county votes early in SC. I'm surprised the numbers are that low for total EV in 2024
Anyone have a good rundown on the AZ legislature and if we have a shot at flipping it? Both chambers are pretty close even after 2024, which was our worst year there in a decade. With Hobbs looking like she's in a good spot I wonder if we can swing a trifecta.
It's not gerrymandered and it's getting close to flipping, ie Virginia in 2017. I think this midterm is definitely prime to flip one or both AZ state houses.
Any idea what the median seat is in each chamber?
According to the 2024 election results, there were several AZ Rs in the AZ state Senate who won by less than 10 points: Shawnna Bolick (R+2.1), T.J. Shoppe (R+3.9), Anthony Kern (R+7.8), Carine Werner (R+4), and Vince Leach (R+2). Democrats need to flip three seats to gain the AZ state Senate.
As for AZ state House, Democrats need to flip 4 to net the majority. Before 2024, they needed two. It's getting there.
Are those the Presidential numbers? Based on the results for the actual candidates, I had that the two median districts were District 2 (Shawnna Bolick (R) by 3.7) and District 4 (Carine Werner (R) by 3.9).
The state house uses the same district lines as the senate but elects 2 reps for each district. There are a couple with mixed representation.
Yeah, that was confusing, so I didn't do any calculations on that. But if the special elections are any indication... Arizona could net a full-on Democratic trifecta like WI, MN, WI and PA could this year. Esp since they don't have a U.S. Senate seat up for grabs either.
Yup, both chambers are in play in AZ, unlike say NC or GA where the lines are too gerrymandered to overcome even if Dems are able to win statewide.
We also have a good change (not 50-50 but close) to retaking the Trifeca in NV.
Quick Latin America recap.
Lots of important elections this year.
Colombia: the first round of elections are set for this weekend. Polls show Historic Pact's (the party of incumbent leftist Gustavo Petro) Ivan Cepeda likely heading to a runoff with far right Abelardo de la Espriella of the National Salvation party. Shockingly, despite Petro's long-running unpopularity, most runoff polling shows (with AtlasIntel a notable exception) Cepeda winning with leads from 5-10 points.
Peru: The runoff between perennial candidate Keiko Fujimori and upstart candidate Roberto Sanchez is set for June 7th. Sanchez made the second round seemingly out of nowhere by vastly outperforming his polling (most polls had him in 4th or 5th place). As polling over the past month has shown Fujimori with consistent yet small (5 pts or under) leads, he'll have to do so again to prevent Fujimori from finally gaining the presidency she has sought three times previously.
Brazil: Elections arent until October, but after Lula gained a strong polling bounce from his tariff battle with Trump last Summer, polling showed him neck and neck with the son (Flavio) of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro in runoffs, after prior conservative favorite Tarcisio Freitas dropped out in December and endorsed Bolsonaro. Fortunately, Lula again has received seemingly divine assistance as news reports came out of Bolsonaro having incriminating phone calls with a key player in the Banco Master scandal rocking Brazil. Polling since since has shown Lula consistently leading Bolsonaro in a runoff, although by single digit margins that leave little room for comfort.
Sanchez did better than his polls largely because of his strength in rural areas which includes lots of villages without phone or internet access and or do not speak Spanish.
And he may have the same phenomenon this time as Fujimori's strength has always been greater-Lima.
Hopefully she loses again. Probably by a comically-small margin (her prior losses were by 2.9% in 2011, 0.24% in 2016, and 0.25% in 2021).
Mayes Middleton is the Republican nominee to succeed Ken Paxton as attorney general of Texas. His statement yesterday that: "President Trump is the greatest president we have ever had in our history" should be disqualifying.
Unfortunately, for many GOP voters it will not be, due to the GOP of today being little more than a gigantic religious cult centered around Trump.
The GOP nominee is Mayes Middleton, not the other way around. Not important, except that one of my friends in Texas has the same surname so now I am joking that Mayes M. is his cousin. He liked it better when his only famous "cousin" was Kate Middleton. He lives in Tarrant County and voted for his new Democratic State Senator Taylor Rehmet, and for Talarico in the U.S. Senate primary...
Thank you. Corrected.
The constant hyperbole that they engage in is one of the most infuriating things of this era for me. Especially considering that he'll likely go down closer to the Worst President than the Best President.
Closer to? Well, we haven't had states actually secede or a shooting Civil War loom, or Reconstruction for him to stymie, so maybe he hasn't hit Pierce/Buchanan/Andrew Johnson levels (yet.)
So is Becerra really pulling away from Steyer in California? Good to see republicans finally got turds message on who they should vote for. I was sweating the lockout for a week there.
Becerra is in the lead with Steyer and Hilton about tied for 2nd. There could actually be a lockout in another way, Republicans being locked out.
I feel like republicans have coalesced around Hilton enough to get him top 2, if Bianco was still in the mid teens i think that could have been a possibility.
That would be a great result but I have a feeling the R's will know to coalesce around Hilton.
Repubs focusing on Hilton is happening with help from Hilton's media strategy. He has both positive ads touting his candidacy and attack ads against Bianco, which are absurd, but might be effective with low-info GOP voters. The ad shows Bianco kneeling during the BLM protests and says that he is too weak to fight for Repub values. Th first time I saw it I thought it was ICE-related but when I saw it again it was BLM. As a sheriff, Bianco may have been trying to show that he was fair and respectful to the folks in his county, but that is too much for the GOPs.
It is hard to have any respect for Republicans these days...
My wacko brother who is rightwinger from California has switched from Bianco to Hilton and I definitely do not think he is alone. The fix is in for Hilton.
In a way his only chance in hell of being governor was if Bianco made the runoff with him, maybe he should have spent millions propping up Porter
That is an interesting idea, but I don't think it would work. After Tr*mp endorsed him Hilton became the main GOPer. Hilton gained and Bianco lost support. They could only both get in if they were both running equally well, and there were enough different Democrats drawing support. The conditions would have to be perfect for them to be able to do that.
It is a weird and less predictable election than most we have experienced in CA gubernatorial races. We will start having a better idea in about fifty hours from now. I am glad it is almost over. I voted about two weeks ago. I kept looking at the ballot on my desk and wanted it to go out.
For late deciders the best way is to take your ballot to a polling place or county ballot drop box.At this point it is best not to trust the mail,unless that is the only way you can send it. Be sure to sign and date on the outside envelope so it will be counted. Have fun voting!
The race looks to be both close and volatile. Almost anything could happen between the top three. I am hoping for TS and XB in the runoff to tank Repub turnout in November for congressional, legislative and ballot measure races.
They start counting votes on Tuesday at 8PM Pacific Time. We can wait until then...
I've resigned myself to voting for the inevitable Primary loser, Steyer. I think he'd be better than Becerra if he can sneak into the Top Two. I'm not looking forward to 8 years of Becerra though.
Same. I voted for Steyer because we in California can do better than Gavin Newsom 2.0. (without the podcast).
I still wish Rob Bonta would have run...
He’s not there yet as far as running but State Senator Jesse Arreguin would make an excellent Governor even while he’s just in his 2nd year as State Senator and is just getting started.
Arreguin previously served as Mayor of Berkeley for two terms and beats all of the candidates in terms of qualifications. He’s Chair of Housing in the State Senate and has really been killing it on housing affordability and strengthening tenant rights.
I'm a long-time stan for Scott Weiner. He works himself to death in terms of constituent services
I’ve heard that about Weiner.
Arreguin just comes from a much different background and experience than Weiner but primarily because he served as Mayor of Berkeley, which has been leading in affordable housing and homeless housing. Arreguin will likely be the one who takes over Weiner in the State Senate as far as being the leader on housing after Weiner’s out of office in state government.
Jesse Arreguin represents me in the State Senate while Buffy Wicks represents me in the Assembly. Both have been quite responsive although Wicks’ office got back to me five hours after I sent an inquiry.
I don't prefer her at all, but it's kinda wild that Porter didn't drop out and endorse Steyer (who I also don't prefer) considering he's the only bold progressive who has a chance to make the runoff. If it's Becerra 27, Hilton 25, Steyer 24, I imagine she'll get much of the blame.
She's too egotistical to accept any of the blame though.
This is Porter's last shot at actual political relevancy so she was never going to drop out.
I could see her running again for Congress or some other office in Orange County in the future. But unless she makes an impressive last minute rebound this is probably it for her as a viable statewide candidate.
I don't think either Porter or Steyer are particularly progressive though. And, while I dont think highly of porter, a real politician dropping out to back some rich guy seems weird.
I think ideologically she'd be closer to Steyer than Becerra so there would be some rationale for that given that her campaign has faded down the stretch.
Steyer is a staunch opponent of the Keystone Pipeline. Is that not progressive enough?
He says he is. But Steyer is still a 70-year-old oligarch. That is why he didn't catch on. XB isn't great. But he isn't an old, White, oligarch.
68 to be exact but I get your point.
As it so happens, Steyer is the founder of NextGen America, which is a progressive non-profit activist organization. If he’s against the Keystone Pipeline (as far back as in 2017) and for the billionaire tax at the same time, sounds to me he’s pretty progressive. Our Revolution must be crazy to support Steyer’s campaign!
FYI, San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, essentially bought the 2024 Mayoral Election with a lot of self-funding being emphasized. I was not a fan of his candidacy but with just roughly 1 1/2 years in office, he’s significantly improved the city’s image, morale and economy.
Being Govenor though is a much different beast. I voted for Steyer by mail but it had nothing to do with whether he’s progressive or not. More to do with the lackluster field of candidates. If Steyer didn’t catch on, I think this has to do in part with Katie Porter already being in the races
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/22/keystone-pipeline-approval-shortsighted-and-stupid-tom-steyer-commentary.html
News from the North. So much news. Deep breath, here we go...
The government of Alberta announced it will hold a referendum in October to determine if it should hold another referendum at a later date to determine if the province should become independent. Yes, I did summarize it correctly. It will be held in conjunction with several more referenda questions on various red meat conservative topics such as immigration reform, election security, provincial input on appointment of judges, and other dogwhistles. More information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alberta_referendum#Constitutional_questions
Keep in mind that most of this would require the federal government and other provincial governments to buy in, which seems highly unlikely in the present environment. As for the independence movement, it is currently polling strongly negative but the unclear wording of the ballot question may make it a closer race.
Part 2: Byelections, but when?
North Vancouver: Jonathan Wilkinson is resigning to become Canada's ambassador to the EU
Beaches-East York: Nate Erksine-Smith has said he will resign to run for leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party
Rosemont-La Petite Patrie: Alexandre Boulerice left the NDP to sit as an independent MP with the eventual goal of resigning this fall to run in the Quebec provincial election
St Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton: Bloc Quebecios MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay has become an independent for the same reason as Boulerice
Laurier-Sainte Marie: Steven Guilebeault, former Environment Minister under Trudeau, will resign this summer as he is opposed to the support the current PM is giving to the petroleum sector.
Part 3: Byelections, Junior Varsity edition
In Ontario, Caroline Mulroney, daughter of the late Brian Mulroney, is resigning from the government and her seat of York-Simcoe. There is also the vacancy created in Scarborough Southwest after Doly Begum resigned to win the federal riding as a Liberal.
In other provincial by-election news, a newly formed Francophone-opportunity seat on Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia will be electing it's first representative on June 23rd. Still no news on when the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election will be.
September through November will be a very busy electoral season across Canada:
The Quebec provincial election must be held by October 5
B.C. municipal elections on October 17
The Alberta referenda will be on October 19
Ontario municipal elections on October 26
Manitoba municipal elections on October 28
P.E.I. municipal elections on November 2
Saskatchewan municipal elections on November 9
The federal and Ontario by-elections will likely be somewhere in that period also.
Nate Erskine-Smith would be a very good get for the OLP so of course they’ll choose some other random hack instead
Ah yes the OLP will either go with some McGuinty-Wynne era retread or some anonymous local office holder from the GTA that fires up absolutely nobody.
Plus ca change, it is written
Ontario provincial politics is so bleak these days. You have the Ontario NDP who've done nothing except shrink the size of their caucus each election since 2018, the OLP taking three consecutive elections to finally get official party status back and talented politicians instead choosing to instead go to Ottawa to hitch their wagons to Mark Carney (can't blame them).
I think there was a poll that had the no at 60% and the "hold referendum" at 35%
Texas poll (Texas Public Opinion Research):
Talarico up 47-44 in Senate race.
Abbott up 46-41 in gubernatorial race.
https://mailchi.mp/06e052a423d6/tpor-talarico-leads-gen-elect-5-29